Brazilian presidential and general elections 2022 (1st round: October 2nd, 2nd round: October 30th)

[Niemeyerite]

Lula da Silva
97%
Ciro Gomes
94%
Simone Tebet
64%
Jair Bolsonaro
23%

And of course my vote is for Lula 😊

[Lord Halifax]

4. Hard punishment against ambiental crimes on the Amazon even against activities that affect the economy - kinda agree

5. Creation of Indigenous reserves should be a government priority - kinda agree

why don't you fully agree?

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

4. Hard punishment against ambiental crimes on the Amazon even against activities that affect the economy - kinda agree

5. Creation of Indigenous reserves should be a government priority - kinda agree

why don't you fully agree?

Those issues are actually the only reasons I support Lula.

[Red Velvet]

4. Hard punishment against ambiental crimes on the Amazon even against activities that affect the economy - kinda agree

5. Creation of Indigenous reserves should be a government priority - kinda agree

why don't you fully agree?

Serious monitoring and implementation of more tools to fiscalize should be the priority when it comes to the ambiental matters, not the creation of more reserve land, although it should be expanded compared to what it is now, Bolsonaro created none. Because I think reserves area should be expanded but not be necessarily a priority, I only partially agree with the statement.

Regarding the punishment, I don’t think it should be specifically more severe. Depends on what is meant by “Hard Punishment” there but I never much of a fan of how it sounds regardless of context. In some cases, I do think compensation for the damage could be more warranted in some cases. It’s also a shoot on the feet to buy a war with the agrobusiness by going to the other full extreme on this matter.

Crimes against Indigenous tribes specifically, are warranted “Hard Punishment” (aka looong prison time) imo, but a guy who cuts some small forest area for agriculture business and makes a living for his family sounds like a very different thing that also falls into the umbrella of that statement. So I agree with the statement as a general idea but not fully because of that reservation regarding what I interpret as the meaning of hard punishment.

[buritobr]

The Economist considered that between Lula and Bolsonaro, Lula is the lesser of the evils.
Donald Trump endorsed Bolsonaro.

Impact of both in Brazil: close to zero

[buritobr]

This is my forecast of the results in the electoral zones in the cities of São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro



In São Paulo, there is the classical class split. The low income periphery votes left, the middle/upper income center votes right. But I think in 2022 Lula can make some inroads in some middle class districts populated by "boobos" who voted easily for PSDB, but Bolsonaro isn't a good fit fore than.

In Rio de Janeiro, the polarization is more complicated. Bolsonaro will win Barra da Tijuca, an upper income district in the western zone where he lives when he isn't in Brasília. But probably, Lula will win most of the southern zone, in which there is a middle class with a high share of university professors and students, public sector employees and artists. I believe Lula will carry all the southern zone except the districts of Ipanema and Leblon. I think Lula will carry most of the northern zone too. Bolsonaro will carry all the western zone, even the low income districts there, due to the influence of the evangelic churches and the "milícias".

Bolsonaro had a big margin in the cities of São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro in 2018. But polls are showing Lula leading in both cities in 2022.

[Red Velvet]

São Paulo City is easy to predict because it falls into typical class lines. The poorer and peripheral areas distant from the center + the center itself which is not an attractive residential area will be more friendly towards Lula. While the richer areas immediately surrounding the center will be less favorable to Lula, maybe some will even go to Bolsonaro.

São Paulo city vote in 2018:



Interesting to notice the very center being light green (Bolsonaro won with small margins) with this massive area more residentially attractive being dark green (Bolsonaro won with high margins). In 2022 you definitely can expect a lot of PT-Red advance on this map.

Rio de Janeiro City just makes no sense to me even though I live here, so I don’t make any predictions.

I guess it makes sense on paper for the richer areas in Rio specifically to be more favorable to Lula (opposite to what happens in most places of the country tbh) - exception being Barra da Tijuca elites. I mean, we can 100% expect this to be true for Freixo run in Governor, so it would be basically be the presidential run aligning with what happens in Governor and Mayoral results.

Then again, the way people vote here makes no sense imo. The number of Claudio Castro - Lula voters might be very underestimated to some degree outside the South Zone area (Zona Sul - where upper classes tend to concentrate) and on the South Zone itself I wouldn’t be surprised if it existed Freixo - Bolsonaro voters somehow, although to a lesser comparable extent.

So I wouldn’t put anything in Rio “locked” for either candidate, although I generally tend to think South and even North Zone will lean more favorable to Lula than West Zone as a whole as well.

I mean, in 2018 the LARANJEIRAS neighborhood in Rio was the only one that went for PT instead of Bolsonaro and it’s associated as being an upper class and young cultural areas. But other neighborhoods of South Zone went less hard for Bolsonaro in comparison to West Zone and North Zone. Exceptions only being the Copacabana-Ipanema-Leblon places that it’s where even older richer people tend to be even inside the South Zone.

Rio de Janeiro city 2018 results:



So not out of this world to expect similar behavior (that opposes class logics from the rest of the country) to be repeated in Rio as well.

Just to show people from outside some context, these are 2018 map results the two biggest cities, located in Southeast region. No Dark Red (Large Haddad win margins) is visible anywhere.

Meanwhile look how in a Northeast capital like Salvador behaved in 2018:

[buritobr]

The light green zone (or light blue in other elections) of 2018 in the middle of the city of São Paulo is Zona Eleitoral 1 (Bela Vista), which is really in the center of São Paulo. A not so high middle class live there, in small apartments in old buildings. Another Zona Eleitoral really in the center is ZE3, Santa Ifigênia, won by Fernando Haddad in 2012 when he ran for mayor (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IqNJZJiQRNE&t=78s 6:04). ZE3 in 2012 became a red island in the middle of a blue sea.
The dark green (or dark blue) area in São Paulo includes the upper/middle class districts around the city center, but not exactly in the center. This area is called "expanded center" or "Mesopotamia", since it's located between the rivers Tietê and Pinheiros.

[buritobr]

IPEC: PESQUISA PRESIDENCIAL, de 17 a 19/09

- 1º TURNO (VOTO ESTIMULADO)

🔴 Lula (PT): 47% (+1)
🟤 Bolsonaro (PL): 31% (=)
🟡 Ciro (PDT): 7% (=)
🔵 Tebet (MDB): 5% (+1)

Os demais pontuaram 1% ou menos

⚪️ Brancos e Nulos: 5% (-1)
⚫️ Indecisos: 4% (=)

Runoff

IPEC: PESQUISA PRESIDENCIAL, de 17 a 19/09

- 2º TURNO (VOTO ESTIMULADO)

🔴 Lula (PT): 54% (+1)
🟤 Bolsonaro (PL): 35% (-1)

⚪️ Brancos e Nulos: 8% (=)
⚫️ Indecisos: 3% (=)

[buritobr]

According to this Ipec poll, Lula has 52% of the valid vote

I think there is a great possibility of a Lula's victory in the 1st round. Since Ipec (former Ibope) usually underestimated the right, I think this one could be a possible scenario

Lula 51%
Jair Bolsonaro 36%
Ciro Gomes 6%
Simone Tebet 5%
others 2%

Considering this national margin, the 2018 results, the history of the states and the 2022 polls, I believe the map can be this one


I think the remaining blue states are safe blue. This map is the most red possible one.

[Red Velvet]

How does Lula wins zero Center-West states though if he’s projected to have more votes than Bolsonaro in the North/Center-West demographic?

Is his lead in Amazonas and Pará THAT big to put him over the edge regardless of Bolsonaro numbers and supposed lead in Center-West only? Unless Bolsonaro only barely wins Goiás but it’s tied or something. Which in that case it wouldn’t be that much of a surprise if it flipped red either.

IPEC per Region

Southeast - Lula +11
Lula 43%
Bolsonaro 32%

Northeast - Lula +45
Lula 63%
Bolsonaro 18%

South - Bolsonaro +3
Bolsonaro 41%
Lula 38%

North + Center-West - Lula +4
Lula 42%
Bolsonaro 38%

[buritobr]

How does Lula wins zero Center-West states though if he’s projected to have more votes than Bolsonaro in the North/Center-West demographic?

Is his lead in Amazonas and Pará THAT big to put him over the edge regardless of Bolsonaro numbers and supposed lead in Center-West only? Unless Bolsonaro only barely wins Goiás but it’s tied or something. Which in that case it wouldn’t be that much of a surprise if it flipped red either.

IPEC per Region

Southeast - Lula +11
Lula 43%
Bolsonaro 32%

Northeast - Lula +45
Lula 63%
Bolsonaro 18%

South - Bolsonaro +3
Bolsonaro 41%
Lula 38%

North + Center-West - Lula +4
Lula 42%
Bolsonaro 38%

I believe the real result will be slightly on the right of the Ipec poll, since many other polls are on the right of Ipec

[buritobr]

Former presidential candidates from the left, center and right met in order to support Lula. This is an anti-Bolsonaro broad front


Guilherme Boulos (PSOL 2018)
Luciana Genro (PSOL 2014)
Cristóvam Buarque (PDT 2006)
Marina Silva (PV 2010, PSB 2014, Rede 2018)
Geraldo Alckmin (PSDB 2006, 2018)
Fernando Haddad (PT 2018)
Henrique Meirelles (PMDB 2018)

Henrique Meirelles was the president of the Central Bank during Lula's administration (2003-2010). He was never close to the left, but Lula wanted a name to keep peace with the financial markets. After that, Meirelles was hated by the left because he was the Minister of Finance of Temer's administration (2016-2018) and he was the leader of the neoliberal agenda continued by Bolsonaro/Paulo Guedes.
But we have to recognize Meirelles had a great attitude in endorsing Lula despite PT's criticism between 2016-2018. There are more important issues now than just economics, and that's why he joined the anti-Bolsonaro front.

[President Johnson]

Could there be any better comparison to the 2020 US presidential election? This is giving me so many 2020 vibes. Lula is obviously Biden here: popular elder statesman who comes back from retirement because he's best suited to oust an authoritarian demagogue who's unfit for the office and who stokes doubts on the process. Bolsonaro may very well not concede, like his orange role model.

[buritobr]

Could there be any better comparison to the 2020 US presidential election? This is giving me so many 2020 vibes. Lula is obviously Biden here: popular elder statesman who comes back from retirement because he's best suited to oust an authoritarian demagogue who's unfit for the office and who stokes doubts on the process. Bolsonaro may very well not concede, like his orange role model.

Yes, lots of similarities, as you mentioned. And Bolsonaro can be the 1st president not to be reelected after a sequence of 3 reelected presidents (the difference is that in the US, all presidents finished their terms).
And I read that in 2019, Joe Biden was considering the possibility to have a republican running mate.

But of course, PT and the American Democrats have many differences, especially in foreign policy, because the USA is located in the center of the global capitalism and Brazil is in the periphery.

[Red Velvet]

Could there be any better comparison to the 2020 US presidential election? This is giving me so many 2020 vibes. Lula is obviously Biden here: popular elder statesman who comes back from retirement because he's best suited to oust an authoritarian demagogue who's unfit for the office and who stokes doubts on the process. Bolsonaro may very well not concede, like his orange role model.

Lula will probably have a much easier win than Biden though.

US 2020 - Biden +4,4 margin

Biden 51,3%
Trump 46,9%

Brazil 2022 (IPEC) valid votes - Lula +17,5 margin

Lula 51,6%
Bolsonaro 34,1%

Brazil 2022 (Datafolha) valid votes - Lula +12,8 margin

Lula 47,9%
Bolsonaro 35,1%

[ملكة كرينجيتوك]

New Datafolha Poll

Group: Lula, Bolsonaro, Ciro, Simone

Income
<2 MW: 52, 27, 7, 3
2-5 MW: 40, 39, 9, 5
5-10 MW: 35, 40, 11, 6
>10 MW: 32, 41, 8, 14

I’m guessing this refers to monthly income in thousands of Reals?

If this link is accurate I’m guessing these brackets correspond to the Bottom 70%, 70-90th percentile, 90-97(?)th percentile, and Top 2-3% of income earners?

[Red Velvet]

New Datafolha Poll

Group: Lula, Bolsonaro, Ciro, Simone

Income
<2 MW: 52, 27, 7, 3
2-5 MW: 40, 39, 9, 5
5-10 MW: 35, 40, 11, 6
>10 MW: 32, 41, 8, 14

I’m guessing this refers to monthly income in thousands of Reals?

If this link is accurate I’m guessing these brackets correspond to the Bottom 70%, 70-90th percentile, 90-97(?)th percentile, and Top 2-3% of income earners?

No one knows for sure because the government postponed the census that should’ve happened in 2020…

There are different estimates regarding the proportion of population, but this is one of them yeah

I know polling institutes use different proportions to calculate their numbers… Datafolha (which has different income groups than IPEC) considers 50% has 1 MW or less (which aligns with this link you posted), while Quaest considers only 38% has 1 MW or less

So at least 70% of the electorate having 2 MW or less goes in line with Datafolha (not sure about IPEC estimates, but it must be similar since they align more with Datafolha than Quaest) sounds about right.

2 MW or less —> Bottom 75%
2 MW - 5 MW —> Between 9% - 25% richest
5 MW - 10 MW —> Between 4% - 9% richest
10 MW or more —> Top 4%

And 1 MW or less would be around the Bottom 50%.

[buritobr]

1 minimum wage = R$1212 monthly = US$236 monthly
according to today exchange rate

[buritobr]

Ipec polls today in the 3 most important states

Governor
São Paulo: Fernando Haddad 34%, Tarcísio 22%, Rodrigo Garcia 18%
Minas Gerais: Zema 46%, Khalil 29%
Rio de Janeiro: Claudio Castro 37%, Marcelo Freixo 27%, Rodrigo Neves 6%

President
São Paulo: Lula 43%, Bolsonaro 33%, Ciro Gomes 5%, Simone Tebet 5%
Minas Gerais: Lula 46%, Bolsonaro 31%, Ciro Gomes 5%, Simone Tebet 4%
Rio de Janeiro: Lula 41%, Bolsonaro 36%, Ciro Gomes 5%, Simone Tebet 5%

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

Could anyone explain why the Federal District votes so far to the right? Is it just a consequence of being in the northwest or is there more to it?

[Vosem]

Could anyone explain why the Federal District votes so far to the right? Is it just a consequence of being in the northwest or is there more to it?

It's way richer than the rest of Brazil, right?

[buritobr]

Could anyone explain why the Federal District votes so far to the right? Is it just a consequence of being in the northwest or is there more to it?

Brasília (Distrito Federal) used to vote on the left of the country until 2002. It was one of the few places in which Lula won in 1989 (the others were Rio Grande do Sul, Rio de Janeiro, Pernambuco) and in 1994 (the other was Rio Grande do Sul) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oTFtkFJ5A2c

But some changes happened during the 2000s:
1) Public sector employees don't vote so hardly for the PT anymore as they used to vote until 20 years ago
2) A large private sector middle class grew in Brasília
3) A large evangelic population grew at the periphery, around the planned part of the city

[Red Velvet]

PT still won DF in 2006 + 2010 though.

My personal stereotype of the Federal District is a place where a bunch of well-paid public sector/government employees live and generally indicate how the public employees relate with the government. But it probably is due to the factors burito mentions.

Low-key dream is to pass in one of those public exams and go live in Brasilia with a life-stable and well paid job. Even though it looks like a boring place to live, I would still be able to travel around on vacations with the salary tbh.

[Red Velvet]

New DATAFOLHA

Lula 47% (+2)
Bolsonaro 33% (0)
Ciro 7% (-1)
Simone 5% (0)

In valid votes: no one can predict if there will be a runoff or not.

Lula 50%
Bolsonaro 35%
Ciro 7%
Simone 5%

Runoff scenario: Lula 59% vs Bolsonaro 41%

1st round BY REGION:

Southeast
Lula 41%
Bolsonaro 36%

Northeast
Lula 62%
Bolsonaro 24%

South
Lula 40%
Bolsonaro 39%

North
Lula 42%
Bolsonaro 36%

Center-West
Bolsonaro 41%
Lula 38%

- The race looking to be tied in the Center-West shows that either it’s a very slight Bozo win in all or there’s at least one state there where Lula can have a slight win. IMO that would be Goiás instead of Mato Grosso do Sul.