Brazilian presidential and general elections 2022 (1st round: October 2nd, 2nd round: October 30th)

[buritobr]

Tomorrow, the first debate between the main candidates will be broadcast by Rede Bandeirantes. I believe that there could be a live feed on their Youtube channel, Band Jornalismo.

Yes, you can watch in the Youtube, at Band Jornalismo.
Probably all the invited candidates will participate: Lula, Jair Bolsonaro, Ciro Gomes, Simone Tebet, Filipe d'Ávila, Soraya
And you understand the language

[Red Velvet]

Not sure if there will be more debates tbh. Even for this one Bolsonaro people kept saying he wouldn’t go only to later on change the discourse and say he would go.

If he does bad in this one, I’m not sure there will be more debates because if he doesn’t go, Lula people will say there’s no reason for him to debate with more irrelevant candidates only and then without the two, the debate would be canceled lol

I’m still surprised this debate is really happening so it’s something I will definitely watch because it could very well be the only one. For such a polarized election that has been discussed for so long, it still doesn’t really feel like we’re in the times we anticipated so much for the last four years…

The only signs that we are in an electoral period I got were the screams (against and in favor of him, people fighting on their windows) on the window during Bolsonaro interview to Jornal Nacional on Monday and my Uber driver watching the Jornal Nacional interview with Lula on the car last Thursday.

Oh and if you walk by Uruguaiana (commercial point in Rio) you can see a bunch of towels with Lula or Bolsonaro face on it, that people like to buy for some reason. I read that this little towels selling has become a phenomenon this cycle, with the sellers organizing a public score in front of sales of how many Lula and Bolsonaro towels they managed to sell, which stimulates people to rush to buy more towels for their candidate in order to defeat the other in the score. From what I hear, Lula ones sells much more than the Bolsonaro ones.

Outside that, there’s a weird sense of calm in the air imo. Like this was any other boring beginning of an election cycle like other ones. Which I have to remind myself that it isn’t.

[Mike88]

The election broadcast from all candidates for all offices on the ballot, President, Governors, State Assemblies and Congress (Senate and Chamber of Deputies), started this weekend:

From Maranhão State.

Lula's broadcast was quite good, Bolsonaro's also surprised me because, well, it was quite sane, a bit full of BS but, yeah, sane. Didn't like Soraya Thronicke's broadcast, like we say in Portuguese "Presunção e água benta".

[Red Velvet]

Lula was the only really good commercial but not really surprising as PT marketing is always consistently good and compelling. Very cinematic with inspiring soundtrack that appeals to nostalgia to what people associate with happier times of prosperity (2000s in his government)

Bolsonaro clearly more in defensive mode after the last years not being good for the country at all, suggesting it’s not his fault for the bad situation because he had to deal with COVID and Ukraine War. Some empty Bible verse in order to appeal to religious evangelicals. The voiceover at the beginning was cheap, talk to the camera yourself. But not really bad overall.

Ciro had little TV time but registers nothing, even wasting it by pointing this out and asking for people to read his proposals somewhere else lmao. No one cares about opening a QR Code on their cellphones, use the TV time you have to say it yourself, although this policy focus on TV marketing comes off as pedantic. Ciro proposals are my favorite out of all candidates and he clearly is the smartest on the issues, but the man simply does not know to sell himself. I give up.

Simone and Soraya focus on presenting themselves due to their low name ID, Simone with her background and Soraya with a bunch of nonsense that doesn’t register. Feels very empty and self-centered, but probably necessary for their first commercials since people don’t know who they are.

Felipe from Novo has even less time than Ciro, thank heavens. Completely irrelevant to register anything.

No major attacks yet, but the few criticisms clearly directed at Bolsonaro. Talks of hunger coming back for the poorest segments, mentions of authoritarianism and criticizing intentional inaction during the pandemic regarding obtaining vaccines.

[Mike88]

Ciro had little TV time but registers nothing, even wasting it by pointing this out and asking for people to read his proposals somewhere else lmao. No one cares about opening a QR Code on their cellphones, use the TV time you have to say it yourself, although this policy focus on TV marketing comes off as pedantic. Ciro proposals are my favorite out of all candidates and he clearly is the smartest on the issues, but the man simply does not know to sell himself. I give up.

This may be just "brainstorming", but maybe Ciro could have he's real shot in 2026. I mean, by then Lula will be 80 and he will probably wont run for office again, and that will create a vacuum within PT and the left. Not sure if there's any "secret deal" between Lula and Alckmin for the latter one to run in 2026 with PT's blessing. But, I'm not sure, if this does happen, that Alckmin will be accepted by large parts of PT, not to mention center-right voters, so Ciro, here, could have his moment and try to fill the void Lula's exit may create on the left, and appeal to centrist/center-right moderate voters who don't have a strong candidate. Of course, if Bolsonaro loses this year and tries again in 2026, Ciro could also be the center/center-left main candidate.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The election broadcast from all candidates for all offices on the ballot, President, Governors, State Assemblies and Congress (Senate and Chamber of Deputies), started this weekend:

From Maranhão State.

Lula's broadcast was quite good, Bolsonaro's also surprised me because, well, it was quite sane, a bit full of BS but, yeah, sane. Didn't like Soraya Thronicke's broadcast, like we say in Portuguese "Presunção e água benta".

Weird to see Progressistas supporting Lula...

[Blow by blow, the passion dies]

Lula was the only really good commercial but not really surprising as PT marketing is always consistently good and compelling. Very cinematic with inspiring soundtrack that appeals to nostalgia to what people associate with happier times of prosperity (2000s in his government)

Bolsonaro clearly more in defensive mode after the last years not being good for the country at all, suggesting it’s not his fault for the bad situation because he had to deal with COVID and Ukraine War. Some empty Bible verse in order to appeal to religious evangelicals. The voiceover at the beginning was cheap, talk to the camera yourself. But not really bad overall.

Ciro had little TV time but registers nothing, even wasting it by pointing this out and asking for people to read his proposals somewhere else lmao. No one cares about opening a QR Code on their cellphones, use the TV time you have to say it yourself, although this policy focus on TV marketing comes off as pedantic. Ciro proposals are my favorite out of all candidates and he clearly is the smartest on the issues, but the man simply does not know to sell himself. I give up.

Simone and Soraya focus on presenting themselves due to their low name ID, Simone with her background and Soraya with a bunch of nonsense that doesn’t register. Feels very empty and self-centered, but probably necessary for their first commercials since people don’t know who they are.

Felipe from Novo has even less time than Ciro, thank heavens. Completely irrelevant to register anything.

No major attacks yet, but the few criticisms clearly directed at Bolsonaro. Talks of hunger coming back for the poorest segments, mentions of authoritarianism and criticizing intentional inaction during the pandemic regarding obtaining vaccines.

Soraya's flat tax is a bad idea.

[Mike88]

Live feed of the debate:

[buritobr]

Ciro had little TV time but registers nothing, even wasting it by pointing this out and asking for people to read his proposals somewhere else lmao. No one cares about opening a QR Code on their cellphones, use the TV time you have to say it yourself, although this policy focus on TV marketing comes off as pedantic. Ciro proposals are my favorite out of all candidates and he clearly is the smartest on the issues, but the man simply does not know to sell himself. I give up.

This may be just "brainstorming", but maybe Ciro could have he's real shot in 2026. I mean, by then Lula will be 80 and he will probably wont run for office again, and that will create a vacuum within PT and the left. Not sure if there's any "secret deal" between Lula and Alckmin for the latter one to run in 2026 with PT's blessing. But, I'm not sure, if this does happen, that Alckmin will be accepted by large parts of PT, not to mention center-right voters, so Ciro, here, could have his moment and try to fill the void Lula's exit may create on the left, and appeal to centrist/center-right moderate voters who don't have a strong candidate. Of course, if Bolsonaro loses this year and tries again in 2026, Ciro could also be the center/center-left main candidate.

Lula will be 81 in 2006, prabably he won't run for reelection. Today, PT has no other strong name than Fernando Haddad. Ciro Gomes could be an option for the center-left in 2026. But he followed a wrong strategy. When he traveled to Europe in the runoff in 2018 instead of joining Haddad's campaign, many leftists who voted for Ciro Gomes in the 1st round decided not to vote for him again. In 2022, Ciro already said that he won't participate of the Lula's campaign against Bolsonaro in the runoff. In many speeches, he tries to portray PT and Bolsonaro as not so different evils. 4 years ago, some leftists considered that PT was better, others considered that PSOL was better, others considered that Ciro was better, but there is a consensus in the left: it's unacceptable to deny that Bolsonaro is much worse than everything (it's not necessary to be a leftist to think like that, only a sane person).

[buritobr]

This is the map of the states polled by Ipec
https://twitter.com/CentralEleicoes/status/1563978582212464641
In red, Lula is leading
In brown, Bolsonaro is leading (I prefer blue for representing the right, but brown is a good fit for Bolsonaro)

Lula: Amazonas, Tocantins, Maranhão, Piauí, Rio Grande do Norte, Pernambuco, Sergipe, Bahia, Minas Gerais, Espírito Santo, Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo, Rio Grande do Sul
Bolsonaro: Rondônia, Goiás, Distrito Federal, Paraná, Santa Catarina

Acre, Roraima, Pará, Ceará, Paraíba, Alagoas, Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul were not polled by Ipec yet.
Other pollsters show a clear leading for Lula in Ceará, Paraíba, Alagoas. The Northeast is a stronghold for the PT in presidential elections 2006 and we expect that Lula will win all the 9 states in the Northeastr easily.
Bolsonaro is leading in Acre, Roraima, Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul.
There is an uncertainty regarding Pará. Haddad had a narrow win there in 2018, but the North isn't expected to have a swing for the left.

[Red Velvet]

Debate starts in 10 minutes

[buritobr]

Bolsonaro's security staff demanded that he doesn't sit besides Lula

[Red Velvet]

Omg it started. First time ever that Lula and Bolsonaro face each other in the same room lol

[Red Velvet]

Too many filler candidates in the debate zzzz

So far the most relevant moments were Bolsonaro asking Lula about corruption and Ciro asking Bolsonaro about Hunger and Misery. But both Ciro and Lula seem way too calm and not enough in attack mode imo

Lula lost the perfect opportunity to bring all the Bolsonaro corruption (I mean, Centrão’s whore!) and opted to shift the subject to all his government accomplishments. Lula is old and already experienced literally everything from political life, definitely not the combative figure from the older days even if he still maintains a strong presence.

[Mike88]

Too many filler candidates in the debate zzzz

So far the most relevant moments were Bolsonaro asking Lula about corruption and Ciro asking Bolsonaro about Hunger and Misery. But both Ciro and Lula seem way too calm and not enough in attack mode imo

Lula lost the perfect opportunity to bring all the Bolsonaro corruption (I mean, Centrão’s whore!) and opted to shift the subject to all his government accomplishments. Lula is old and already experienced literally everything from political life, definitely not the combative figure from the older days even if he still maintains a strong presence.

Yeah, so far very boring, but maybe that's a good thing. Also, Soraya Thronicke bringing up Portugal, but without understanding what she's talking about

I think that the hunger question, in my opinion, had Bolsonaro very uncomfortable and citting numbers that didn't make much sense. Corruption is, IMO, a very slippery terrain for both Lula and Bolsonaro, it's better for both to not talk that much about it.

[Red Velvet]

Bolsonaro got pressed with the question about vaccines from journalist Vera Magalhães and offended her. Knows it’s extremely sensitive topic that made him very unpopular. Typical coward strategy in order to escape from answering. Trying hard to show strength overall as well. Typical “bully to hide your weaknesses and insecurities” stereotype.

The Ciro vs Lula personal question was criiinge from the journalist, is that a relevant matter? I have to like Lula response more in that case even if the “Paris” line is dumb as hell. But at least Lula initially tried to find common ground complimenting Ciro. Ciro turned down the amicable tone and went to attack mode, which provoked the Lula response. But everything about it was dumb and for show, from the journalist to both candidates.

Lula is way too “love and peace” imo, which could maybe be interpreted as weakness. I get that he wants to send the message of the unifier but people REALLY want to see someone stepping on Bolsonaro HARD. And both Simone Tebet and Ciro Gomes have done a better job on this regard, but still should have been much more. Ciro is dumb bringing a PT line of attack for every anti-Bolsonaro one he does though.

The filler candidates are being put in stereotypical positions. Simone and Soraya being put in the Woman position. Simone is actually a good speaker though, unlike Soraya. Felipe as the fringe ideological candidate screaming “State BAD” and no one giving a damn.

Soraya just got the BEST moment in the debate though, despite being the weakest overall! Just called out Bolsonaro disrespectful attitude towards Vera in a strong way. I think that played really well. Bolsonaro tried to play the Trump playbook by offending a woman journalist but I don’t think that will play well in the same way he expects… That open type of humiliating women plays different depending on the country and outside the more radical base, this pushes away the people on the fence.

No one is really that good imo, so I give Simone Tebet the MVP position by default overall. 2nd place goes to Ciro.

[Red Velvet]

Soraya’s question to Lula was very pertinent regarding what is the Lula program tbh

Lula is basically running on nothing other than his name and good memories of his older government. But there’s nothing new, it feels rusty as hell. Not by coincidence, he responds most questions by mentioning the accomplishments from those times.

That said, Lula FINALLY gets a strong answer but wastes it on Soraya lmaoooo. But that type of stuff plays well, shaming the elitism from upper classes.

[Red Velvet]

I know it’s just politics, but I literally hate Ciro after this debate and 100% am not voting for him regardless of project.

Playing a “dobradinha” with the guy from NOVO against PT? Where’s that energy against Bolsonaro?

Overall, this debates still feels like a default victory to Bolsonaro despite the weak performance. But he has something in favor of him against all these people which is the accessible easy language and communication. Others sound way too politician or way too rehearsed or way too smart with difficult language.

[Red Velvet]

Bolsonaro shooting himself on the foot wanting to ASK ABOUT WOMEN ISSUES to Ciro Gomes after the sh**tshow spectacle he did on camera.

Glad Ciro pointed the absurd out but still too respectful. He’s bringing again PT/Lula again randomly lol. He doesn’t understand he won’t get any votes from this. If anyone will benefit, it’s Bolsonaro.

[buritobr]

Lula didn't have a good performance in this debate like he had in the interview at Globo last Thursday. But I don't think he will decrease in the next polls. He will stay at the same level. Since he is the leader, he tried to avoid conflict.

Ciro Gomes answered some questions very well, but in other questions, he was disgusting. He tries to be on the left of PT in economic issues, but he joined the candidate of the libertarian Novo in the attacks on the PT. And in order to try to put Bolsonaro and PT at the same level, the compared Bolsonaro's insult on journalist Vera Magalhães to PT supporters who were only waving flags outside the TV studio.

I don't have much to speak about Bolsonaro, he just repeated everything he says to his cattle in the Internet.

Simone Tebet performed very well, but it's hard to imagine that the scenario will change on the remaining 5 weeks.

Soraya and Filipe were the clowns of the debate.

[Red Velvet]

Debate has ended and Simone Tebet was the only name that was able to make a name for herself.

Lula was too weak/soft while attacked by everyone, but the biggest issue is that he doesn’t know how to bring anything new. Talked a lot about past achievements but it sounded like he’s stuck in the past.

Bolsonaro did good for his base but not overall imo, although in the matchup against Lula only he wins for being able to dictate the topics discussed by adopting attack mode. But had bad moments where sounded he desperate and I don’t think much of his rhetoric he used is relevant to anyone outside his base. Specific moments were disgusting, like his response to Vera Magalhães.

Ciro I’m just annoyed with, but it’s a “meh” show, although still enough to probably be 2nd best performance. Some moments were really strong, loved the response to Bolsonaro regarding women. Won’t get any new voters though.

Simone Tebet was able to successfully present herself and she registered. Surprising that out of everyone, with Lula and Ciro there, she’s the one who looked like the most antagonizing figure towards Bolsonaro. The disappointment towards Lula I think is that people want a catharsis from debates and say a  you to Bolsonaro. Tebet benefited from this in that dull stage in which somewhat lacked the way people wanted.

Soraya is very weird and kinda dull, but had some good and strong moments. That other guy whose name I don’t remember was only a caricature repeating same thing entire time, typical “message” candidate that doesn’t even think of winning but spreading the party message around through the TV time.

[Red Velvet]

Ciro Gomes answered some questions very well, but in other questions, he was disgusting. He tries to be on the left of PT in economic issues, but he joined the candidate of the libertarian Novo in the attacks on the PT. And in order to try to put Bolsonaro and PT at the same level, the compared Bolsonaro's insult on journalist Vera Magalhães to PT supporters who were only waving flags outside the TV studio.

That was the moment that made me want to punch Ciro.

As a supporter of his (at least the proposals only at this point, but not Ciro himself anymore), I do think criticizing PT and Lula is important when there is a valid point and I get really annoyed by PT fanatics who make it personal.

That said, there was nothing about PT in that question and Ciro just sounded obsessed to namedrop PT for the sake of false equivalence in a time he was supposed to go hard on Bolsonaro only. Attack PT in more convenient questions, in that one it felt WAY off.

[Red Velvet]

DATAFOLHA poll regarding the debate performance shows Bolsonaro as easily the worst performance compared to the others, while Lula is mostly a nothing burguer that didn’t even register much as best or worst, but significantly more negative than positive though.

2ND TV BLOC ONLY

Who had the BEST performance in the debate?

Simone Tebet (MDB) - 37%
Ciro Gomes (PDT) - 22%
Felipe D’Avila (NOVO) - 15%
Soraya Thronicke (UNIÃO) - 13%
Bolsonaro (PL) - 6%
Lula (PT) - 4%
Don’t Know - 4%

Who had the WORST performance in the debate?

Bolsonaro (PL) - 45%
Felipe D’Avila (NOVO) - 16%
Lula (PT) - 14%
Soraya Thronicke (UNIÃO) - 12%
Simone Tebet (MDB) - 10%
Ciro Gomes (PDT) - 2%
Don’t Know - 2%

[Red Velvet]

Sorry, the ones above were for the 2nd bloc of the debate only.

These are the OVERALL results from Datafolha:

Who had the BEST performance in the debate?

1. Simone Tebet (MDB) - 43%
2. Ciro Gomes (PDT) - 23%
3. Lula (PT) - 10%
4. Bolsonaro (PL) - 10%
5. Felipe D’Avila (NOVO) - 8%
6. Soraya Thronicke (UNIÃO) - 2%

Who had the WORST performance in the debate?

1. Bolsonaro (PL) - 51%
2. Lula (PT) - 21%
3. Soraya Thronicke (UNIÃO) - 14%
4. Felipe D’Avila (NOVO) - 7%
5. Simone Tebet (MDB) - 5%
6. Ciro Gomes (PDT) - 2%

The poll isn’t representative of all Brazilian population but of undecided voters and blank/null voters. Which is best measure for debate performances because otherwise people would just have a bias in favor of their candidates.

[Estrella]

This is might be a dumb question given what MDB is like, but what policies/ideas is Tebet running on?