Ontario Election 2022

[DL]

I'm not sure I understand how people being frustrated with Covid related restrictions is good for Doug Ford when he is the one who has imposed all the restrictions on ontario and Ontario has had the longest strictest lockdowns of any jurisdiction in North America. the anti lockdown vote will go for rightwing fringe parties. Those people see Ford as a traitor and sell-out!

It demobilizes young left-wing voters who are fatigued by the restrictions

Young leftwing voters in Ontario have never been "mobilized" about whether or not to lockdown in the first place and in any case, barring an unknown new variant, by the time the campaign begins in late April chances are there will be very few, if any, restrictions left in Ontario

[mileslunn]

I think on restrictions, no one who has getting rid of them as top priority will go for Ford as he has had some of the toughest anywhere in Western world.  But Liberals and NDP have to be careful not to overplay.  Much of their public sector base is pro-lockdown whenever there is a spike (no one wants lockdowns forever), but a lot of millennials are done with them.  Risk is lower and when young, you tend to have a larger social circle so restrictions harder emotionally than when older and have a family so can turn to them for support.  Also its simply risk vs. benefits and for many older people, lockdowns emotionally hard, but they also don't want to get very sick and/or die.  For young people, risk of either is much lower so many feel its worth taking the risk.

I think danger more for OLP and NDP is if seen as too pro-restrictions, many younger voters will just stay home and not vote at all, not go PC or for further right parties.  Further right parties have too many crazies never mind I am not sure most want no restrictions.  I think most just want to lead a largely normal life so are fine with minor ones like indoor masks, vaccine passports, and maybe in some cases capacity limits, but don't like not being able to do things they enjoy or being limited on who they can see.

[DL]

I have never heard the NDP or the OLP call for more lockdowns - at least not in the last year. I've heard the NDP call for more paid sick days so people can stay home if they catch Covid and not lose their livelihood. I have also heard the NDP call for more and better ventilation in schools and more systemic testing - and these have always been positioned as things we need to do to PREVENT future lockdowns, not to make them more likely.

There is no "pro lockdown" party in Ontario.

[adma]

I'm not sure I understand how people being frustrated with Covid related restrictions is good for Doug Ford when he is the one who has imposed all the restrictions on ontario and Ontario has had the longest strictest lockdowns of any jurisdiction in North America. the anti lockdown vote will go for rightwing fringe parties. Those people see Ford as a traitor and sell-out!

It demobilizes young left-wing voters who are fatigued by the restrictions

Young leftwing voters in Ontario have never been "mobilized" about whether or not to lockdown in the first place and in any case, barring an unknown new variant, by the time the campaign begins in late April chances are there will be very few, if any, restrictions left in Ontario

And beyond that, you cannot pigeonhole said fatigued young voters as "left-wing".  More likely, they're mushy free agents who *might* be generically *available* to the left wing w/the proper pitch.  (And the proper pitch on the left could indeed be "we're fatigued, too, and this could all be handled better than under the present regime".)

In fact, in practice, the young, *truly* left-wing voters are probably *most* mobilized, and know perfectly well why things are so rather than being lazily "restrictions suck, everything sucks, I think I won't vote".  (And given what I said about that mushy-free-agent youth vote being "available" to the provincial PCs in '18--yes, maybe it *isn't* necessarily the left of centre most affected by said fatigue.)

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1489275826432626689
I think this here supports my point, 43% of Canadians approved of the protest, including 33% of Liberals and 29% of NDP voters. There is a partisan divide on easing restrictions but not one nearly as strong as you would expect given the current rhetoric on the issue.

[adma]

I think this here supports my point, 43% of Canadians approved of the protest, including 33% of Liberals and 29% of NDP voters. There is a partisan divide on easing restrictions but not one nearly as strong as you would expect given the current rhetoric on the issue.

It could be approving of *a* protest, or at least of the easing-restrictions principle behind it; however, it's also possible that not all of those polled were fully engaged to, well, the form said protest took.  (And given the tenuous engagement a lot of people have to "deep" news media these days, I wouldn't be surprised if that number diminishes once the focus accentuates.)

[adma]

Also, the more commonly-shared Abacus stat is the "how much do you have in common with the protestors" stat, which went, re "a lot" vs "a little":  82% PPC, 57% Green, 46% Con, 25% Lib, 23% NDP, 19% Bloc.

https://abacusdata.ca/freedom-convoy-public-reaction-february-2022/

And with *that* in mind, perhaps if it were about exploiting the lockdown-restless youth demo w/a garnish of "left" about it, on paper maybe Mike Schreiner & the Greens would be well positioned to benefit in the upcoming election.  (Except that Schreiner himself is too sensible-middle to be riding the anti-vaxx conspirituality train that a lot of Green supporters do)

[King of Kensington]

Randy Hillier calling it quits

https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/controversial-ontario-mpp-randy-hillier-announces-he-will-not-run-for-re-election-1.5805114

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Randy Hillier calling it quits

https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/controversial-ontario-mpp-randy-hillier-announces-he-will-not-run-for-re-election-1.5805114

Good flippin' riddance.

Another retirement rumoured, though not yet announced: Christine Elliott. Pretty big loss, but a predictable one given her age and seniority.

[lilTommy]

Interestingly there are 4 MPPs from the class of 2018 who are not running again, one term and they are like "nope, not for me" LOL

All 4 are young and 3 are women, that does not look good for politics. 3 PCs and 1 NDPer, most in competitive ridings:
Kitchener South--Hespeler (mostly PC/ONDP, but i'd wager OLP will be in this one too), Durham (mostly PC/ONDP fight), Kingston and the Islands (probably ONDP/OLP fight), Scarborough Centre (all three parties)

So far 15 MPPs not running again; 9 PCs, 4 NDP, 1 OLP, 2 Indies (both elected PCs)

[adma]

Interestingly there are 4 MPPs from the class of 2018 who are not running again, one term and they are like "nope, not for me" LOL

All 4 are young and 3 are women, that does not look good for politics. 3 PCs and 1 NDPer, most in competitive ridings:
Kitchener South--Hespeler (mostly PC/ONDP, but i'd wager OLP will be in this one too), Durham (mostly PC/ONDP fight), Kingston and the Islands (probably ONDP/OLP fight), Scarborough Centre (all three parties)

So far 15 MPPs not running again; 9 PCs, 4 NDP, 1 OLP, 2 Indies (both elected PCs)

Though each of the 3 women have had chequered histories (Amy Fee due to domestic issues, Christina Mitas & Lindsey due to Covid issues)

[DL]

I only know of 3 NDP MPPs nit running again, not 4

[lilTommy]

I only know of 3 NDP MPPs nit running again, not 4

Correct, sorry, Looks like so far just 3 (Arthur, Hatfield, Natyshak)

[DL]

and now it IS 4 NDP MPPs not running again. Rima Berns-McGown has announced she will not reoffer in Beaches-East York.

I think this could actually be an opportunity for the ONDP to trade up. Nothing against Rima but she was very passionate a bit of a flakey academic social justice warrior type who got the nomination unopposed in 2018 when the conventional wisdom was that the NDP would have a hard time winning back that seat. I suspect this could be a good opportunity for the NDP to run someone high profile who would be seen as "cabinet minister material"

[adma]

and now it IS 4 NDP MPPs not running again. Rima Berns-McGown has announced she will not reoffer in Beaches-East York.

I think this could actually be an opportunity for the ONDP to trade up. Nothing against Rima but she was very passionate a bit of a flakey academic social justice warrior type who got the nomination unopposed in 2018 when the conventional wisdom was that the NDP would have a hard time winning back that seat. I suspect this could be a good opportunity for the NDP to run someone high profile who would be seen as "cabinet minister material"

Matthew Kellway?

Though given how the seat's been generically gentrifying away from the NDP federally and arguably even municipally, I could see that 2018-era conventional wisdom returning to haunt the party, particularly if the Libs are in any way poised to push the ONDP back into third-party status, and given that former councillor Mary-Margaret McMahon's their candidate...

[Benjamin Frank]

and now it IS 4 NDP MPPs not running again. Rima Berns-McGown has announced she will not reoffer in Beaches-East York.

I think this could actually be an opportunity for the ONDP to trade up. Nothing against Rima but she was very passionate a bit of a flakey academic social justice warrior type who got the nomination unopposed in 2018 when the conventional wisdom was that the NDP would have a hard time winning back that seat. I suspect this could be a good opportunity for the NDP to run someone high profile who would be seen as "cabinet minister material"

From a distance, as unpopular as the Ford P.Cs were in their first year in government, the NDP seemed to be even more unpopular as the official opposition.  A large amount of this seemed to stem from Rima Berns-McGown being the Deputy Leader and her promoting a very left wing 'social justice warrior' agenda.  The NDP seems to have shifted away from that since her demotion.

[adma]

and now it IS 4 NDP MPPs not running again. Rima Berns-McGown has announced she will not reoffer in Beaches-East York.

I think this could actually be an opportunity for the ONDP to trade up. Nothing against Rima but she was very passionate a bit of a flakey academic social justice warrior type who got the nomination unopposed in 2018 when the conventional wisdom was that the NDP would have a hard time winning back that seat. I suspect this could be a good opportunity for the NDP to run someone high profile who would be seen as "cabinet minister material"

From a distance, as unpopular as the Ford P.Cs were in their first year in government, the NDP seemed to be even more unpopular as the official opposition.  A large amount of this seemed to stem from Rima Berns-McGown being the Deputy Leader and her promoting a very left wing 'social justice warrior' agenda.  The NDP seems to have shifted away from that since her demotion.

I really think people weren't all that engaged to notice or be swayed by any such shift in agenda.  The "unpopularity" has more to do with Ontario's MSM still hard-wired t/w a Lib/Con binary w/NDP as eternal 3rd party, and Doug Ford's own tendency to gaslight and marginalize the Official Opposition: "we won, you lost, so, nyaaah".  So, they had negligible oxygen--they weren't unpopular so much as they were "unnoticed".

[lilTommy]

and now it IS 4 NDP MPPs not running again. Rima Berns-McGown has announced she will not reoffer in Beaches-East York.

I think this could actually be an opportunity for the ONDP to trade up. Nothing against Rima but she was very passionate a bit of a flakey academic social justice warrior type who got the nomination unopposed in 2018 when the conventional wisdom was that the NDP would have a hard time winning back that seat. I suspect this could be a good opportunity for the NDP to run someone high profile who would be seen as "cabinet minister material"

Matthew Kellway?

Though given how the seat's been generically gentrifying away from the NDP federally and arguably even municipally, I could see that 2018-era conventional wisdom returning to haunt the party, particularly if the Libs are in any way poised to push the ONDP back into third-party status, and given that former councillor Mary-Margaret McMahon's their candidate...

I'd like to see Janet Davis run for the ONDP, we'd have two former city councilors running.
It's interesting that the gentrification and movement from ONDP->OLP is happening mostly in the south, Beaches area, which used to be where the ONDP was strongest (old Beaches-Woodbine riding) And the East York area in the north of the riding has been trending OLP->ONDP for the most part provincially although federally this is still a Progressive-lean-Liberal riding. I think that was due to the old MPP Michael Prue who was the last mayor of East York (I think) but was a long time city councilor too.

 

[DL]

Rima Berns-McGown was never deputy leader, never had much of a profile and would have been totally unknown to about 99% of the population.

[Benjamin Frank]

Rima Berns-McGown was never deputy leader, never had much of a profile and would have been totally unknown to about 99% of the population.

Sorry, you are correct.  I mixed her up with Sara Singh who still is Deputy Leader but who was the seemingly high profile Attorney General critic in 2018/2019 but was then demoted.

[adma]

Rima Berns-McGown was never deputy leader, never had much of a profile and would have been totally unknown to about 99% of the population.

Sorry, you are correct.  I mixed her up with Sara Singh who still is Deputy Leader but who was the seemingly high profile Attorney General critic in 2018/2019 but was then demoted.

Whether RMMcG or SS, the public wouldn't have noticed, because Doug Ford's genetically Reagan-style "there you go again" re left-opposition.  And face it; the NDP's generic reputation precedes it.  It's *expected* to be a "woke-type" party, and lives or dies on that particular battlefield.

[mileslunn]

Rima Berns-McGown was never deputy leader, never had much of a profile and would have been totally unknown to about 99% of the population.

Sorry, you are correct.  I mixed her up with Sara Singh who still is Deputy Leader but who was the seemingly high profile Attorney General critic in 2018/2019 but was then demoted.

Whether RMMcG or SS, the public wouldn't have noticed, because Doug Ford's genetically Reagan-style "there you go again" re left-opposition.  And face it; the NDP's generic reputation precedes it.  It's *expected* to be a "woke-type" party, and lives or dies on that particular battlefield.

I think more woke types help NDP in downtown Toronto, but hurt them in more blue collar ridings like Oshawa, Niagara Centre, Essex and target ones like Sault Ste Marie, Kenora-Rainy River, and Brantford-Brant.  Now perhaps based on global trends, these type are shifting away anyways so there is not much they can do about shift and they need to like BC NDP offset this by winning in upper middle class urban ridings to cancel loss of blue collar smaller communities.  With high cost of living, that may be possible as historically if you made six figure salaries, you didn't have to worry about financial difficulties so you voted for a party that would give you a tax cut.

But now with housing so expensive, even many with six figure salaries struggle on affordability front and things like more affordable housing, better public transit, a universal childcare program which are all traditional NDP ideas can be appealing to people in past who would have been too wealthy to vote NDP.  And this group is sort of a meh on SJW stuff unlike many in blue collar areas who find it a huge turnoff. 

[adma]

Rima Berns-McGown was never deputy leader, never had much of a profile and would have been totally unknown to about 99% of the population.

Sorry, you are correct.  I mixed her up with Sara Singh who still is Deputy Leader but who was the seemingly high profile Attorney General critic in 2018/2019 but was then demoted.

Whether RMMcG or SS, the public wouldn't have noticed, because Doug Ford's genetically Reagan-style "there you go again" re left-opposition.  And face it; the NDP's generic reputation precedes it.  It's *expected* to be a "woke-type" party, and lives or dies on that particular battlefield.

I think more woke types help NDP in downtown Toronto, but hurt them in more blue collar ridings like Oshawa, Niagara Centre, Essex and target ones like Sault Ste Marie, Kenora-Rainy River, and Brantford-Brant.  Now perhaps based on global trends, these type are shifting away anyways so there is not much they can do about shift and they need to like BC NDP offset this by winning in upper middle class urban ridings to cancel loss of blue collar smaller communities.  With high cost of living, that may be possible as historically if you made six figure salaries, you didn't have to worry about financial difficulties so you voted for a party that would give you a tax cut.

But now with housing so expensive, even many with six figure salaries struggle on affordability front and things like more affordable housing, better public transit, a universal childcare program which are all traditional NDP ideas can be appealing to people in past who would have been too wealthy to vote NDP.  And this group is sort of a meh on SJW stuff unlike many in blue collar areas who find it a huge turnoff. 

It also depends on how much *voters*--even blue-collar ones--put SJW issues (or dislike of the same) on the front burner, or are even prone to noticing.  Most Ontarians aren't Queen's Park nerds.  Whether from within or from without, it's "invisibility" that's presently the ONDP's enemy, more than wokeness per se...

[Benjamin Frank]

Rima Berns-McGown was never deputy leader, never had much of a profile and would have been totally unknown to about 99% of the population.

Sorry, you are correct.  I mixed her up with Sara Singh who still is Deputy Leader but who was the seemingly high profile Attorney General critic in 2018/2019 but was then demoted.

Whether RMMcG or SS, the public wouldn't have noticed, because Doug Ford's genetically Reagan-style "there you go again" re left-opposition.  And face it; the NDP's generic reputation precedes it.  It's *expected* to be a "woke-type" party, and lives or dies on that particular battlefield.

Like I said, I'm from a distance from Ontario and don't see a lot, but I did see opinion polls in Ontario around 2019 that showed the NDP as the official NDP even more unpopular than the government and I saw news stories and tweets quoting people saying the NDP was obsessed with SJW type stuff, and I believe the name most often mentioned with that was Sara Singh who was then the Attorney General critic.  She was then removed from that role and support for the NDP seemed to steadily rise after that.

I certainly acknowledge I could be wrong about this and obviously memory is a strange thing.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

The NDP and Liberals have once again lept on a political landmine, they've come out against Doug Ford's lifting of the mask mandate and vaccine passport scheme which will almost certainly drive all anti-covid restriction voters back into doug ford's camp, despite him having implemented some of the strictest restrictions of any judristction.