This Wretched Hive Of Scum And Villainy

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Boundary changes will favour the Conservatives in practice: the main change is the addition of St John's Wood, which is a strongly Conservative area as a rule.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

What’s the record for most prime ministers in one parliamentary term?

4, as far as I know, which has happened about three times, most recently in 1865 (Palmerston died, was replaced by Lord Russell, who was defeated by a VONC, which returned Derby to power for the eight hundredth time, who stepped down for medical reasons in favour of Disraeli - of course that parliament actually accomplished something (the Reform Act) unlike the current shower )

Scratch that, it's actually 5, from 1761-68. I assume Americans here may be familiar with some of the details of that parliament given it overlaps with the American revolutionary period: its turmoil was a result of George III trying his hand to stretch the constitution and saw various factions try to solve the "how to tax the colonies question" via the stamp tax etc.

[Torrain]

Interesting week coming up for the Sunak premiership. Sounds like we're getting the announcement about the economy going into (technical) recession, a possible uptick in inflation, in addition to the two by-elections on Thursday.

Wonder whether the rebels pick up any momentum, or if the outright hostility to Simon Clarke's intervention among backbenchers scares them away from doing anything significant.

[Earthling]

What’s the record for most prime ministers in one parliamentary term?

4, as far as I know, which has happened about three times, most recently in 1865 (Palmerston died, was replaced by Lord Russell, who was defeated by a VONC, which returned Derby to power for the eight hundredth time, who stepped down for medical reasons in favour of Disraeli - of course that parliament actually accomplished something (the Reform Act) unlike the current shower )

Scratch that, it's actually 5, from 1761-68. I assume Americans here may be familiar with some of the details of that parliament given it overlaps with the American revolutionary period: its turmoil was a result of George III trying his hand to stretch the constitution and saw various factions try to solve the "how to tax the colonies question" via the stamp tax etc.

I think that 1780 to 1784 is even worse. There are also 5 prime minister in a parliament that sat for less than 4 years.

North was the sitting PM in autumn 1780, leaving in 1782. Then came Rockingham, who dies within 100 days of becoming PM. The Earl of Shelburne was next but only lasted about 8 months, followed by the Duke of Portland with also 8 moths in office before Pitt the Younger entered in late 1783 and a election was called in de spring of 1784.

[Torrain]

Tracey Crouch is standing down. Minister of Sport under Cameron and May (resigning after the government softened their plans to tighten gambling law), and lauded for her Commons service in the aftermath of her cancer diagnosis. Definitely sits more on the Cameroon wing of the party - she endorsed *Matt Hancock* for the leadership in 2019.

Her Chatham and Aylesford seat was Labour held 1997-2010, but has been won by increasingly comfortable margins by Crouch since her 2010 victory, culminating in an 18k win in 2019. Under the Thrasher seat projections, it’s the 76th safest Tory seat. Certain electoral prediction outlets have it as a Labour pickup, based on national swing and the new boundaries - but idk, would be curious what someone with a better (read: any) understanding of Kent politics thinks.

[JimJamUK]

Her Chatham and Aylesford seat was Labour held 1997-2010, but has been won by increasingly comfortable margins by Crouch since her 2010 victory, culminating in an 18k win in 2019. Under the Thrasher seat projections, it’s the 76th safest Tory seat. Certain electoral prediction outlets have it as a Labour pickup, based on national swing and the new boundaries - but idk, would be curious what someone with a better (read: any) understanding of Kent politics thinks.

It’s the sort of place where the swing to Labour will be bigger than most, and the council elections were very good for Labour there last year. Still, a 23% Tory majority in 2017 is rather unlikely to be overturned at the next election even in a landslide scenario.

[Oryxslayer]

Her Chatham and Aylesford seat was Labour held 1997-2010, but has been won by increasingly comfortable margins by Crouch since her 2010 victory, culminating in an 18k win in 2019. Under the Thrasher seat projections, it’s the 76th safest Tory seat. Certain electoral prediction outlets have it as a Labour pickup, based on national swing and the new boundaries - but idk, would be curious what someone with a better (read: any) understanding of Kent politics thinks.

It’s the sort of place where the swing to Labour will be bigger than most, and the council elections were very good for Labour there last year. Still, a 23% Tory majority in 2017 is rather unlikely to be overturned at the next election even in a landslide scenario.

I think even under the good council elections this still is Tory, or very close. hard to calculate in MMD wards with multiple electors across council lines. While I have no doubt that Labour will try to campaign for it if the polls remain as they are, the seat under the new lines is kinda squeezed both geographically and politically. Too the north are the Medway coastal seats that Labour are no matter what going to make a play for, and probably win a few. to the south is the 'new' Maidstone and Malling which the Lib-Dems should be trying for. More then previously it is filling the gap between the two.

[CumbrianLefty]

Crouch undoubtedly had a significant personal vote, and is indeed notably well regarded generally.

[EastAnglianLefty]

Chatham continues to be very Labour, but Aylesford is a massive anchor on the Labour vote. The numbers work perfectly for the old Rochester & Chatham we had up until 1983 (especially as the two towns fade into one another) and that's a seat we probably wouldn't have lost until 2019, but as boundary commissions work on the basis of minimising change it's unlikely to be coming back any time soon.

[CumbrianLefty]

Sunak yesterday accused Starmer of belittling him because of the school he attended. Purely for the record, is there any confirmed instance of this actually happening?

[Torrain]

Sunak yesterday accused Starmer of belittling him because of the school he attended. Purely for the record, is there any confirmed instance of this actually happening?

There's one incident, from 2022 - but Sunak is twisting the words, somewhat.

It's part of the set-up for a PMQ about why Sunak was donating £6M to his old school. Gove had previously made comments about the benefits of removing tax-exempt status for private schools, calling their reception of tax free gifts "egregious". Starmer was trying to build some political cover and get Sunak on the record defending private schools:

Sir Keir clashed with Mr Sunak over the issue during PMQs and took aim at Mr Sunak's old independent school.

"Winchester College has a rowing club, a rifle club, an extensive art collection, they charge over £45,000 a year in fees," he said.

"Why did [the prime minister] hand them nearly £6m of taxpayers' money this year in what his Levelling Up Secretary [Michael Gove] calls egregious state support?"

Mr Sunak responded: "Whenever he attacks me about where I went to school, he is attacking the hard-working aspiration of millions of people in this country, he's attacking people like my parents.

"This is a country that believes in opportunity not resentment. He doesn't understand that and that's why he's not fit to lead."

[CumbrianLefty]

Well if that is all there is, its a bit of a construction from the PM even if it isn't an actual lie.

[Blair]

Sunak yesterday accused Starmer of belittling him because of the school he attended. Purely for the record, is there any confirmed instance of this actually happening?

It was very funny seeing the DDR esque reporting of the event from GB news.

[Torrain]

Keiran Mullan is standing down at the next election. First elected in 2019 - never a particularly engaging Commons performer, very much in the stilted, populist style of a Jonathan Gullis or Lee Anderson.

Must be noted that he returned to his day-job, volunteering as an NHS doctor during the first COVID wave, which is worth celebrating, even if his Commons tenure was a bit less laudable.

He left his Crewe and Nantwich constituency (and an 8.5k majority) early last year to go on the chicken run, and was mooted in a couple of seats. Was shortlisted for Chester South, and got the final decision delayed for weeks after he complained about the behaviour of another candidate, but was nevertheless beaten by Aphra Brandreth (daughter of one-time local MP, Gyles).

[MaxQue]

Keiran Mullan is standing down at the next election. First elected in 2019 - never a particularly engaging Commons performer, very much in the stilted, populist style of a Jonathan Gullis or Lee Anderson.

Must be noted that he returned to his day-job, volunteering as an NHS doctor during the first COVID wave, which is worth celebrating, even if his Commons tenure was a bit less laudable.

He left his Crewe and Nantwich constituency (and an 8.5k majority) early last year to go on the chicken run, and was mooted in a couple of seats. Was shortlisted for Chester South, and got the final decision delayed for weeks after he complained about the behaviour of another candidate, but was nevertheless beaten by Aphra Brandreth (daughter of one-time local MP, Gyles).

I assume this is the same Gyles Brandreth busy trying to flog his books about the royal family these days?

[Torrain]

I assume this is the same Gyles Brandreth busy trying to flog his books about the royal family these days?

That's him.

Twee as he can be, Brandreth is probably one of the better role models for swing-seat Conservatives thinking about what might happen next...

He's basically the only 1997 loser other than Portillo to establish a lasting media career - and unlike the former member for Enfield Southgate, he got to it immediately, rather than giving Westminster another go first.

[TheTide]

I assume this is the same Gyles Brandreth busy trying to flog his books about the royal family these days?

That's him.

Twee as he can be, Brandreth is probably one of the better role models for swing-seat Conservatives thinking about what might happen next...

He's basically the only 1997 loser other than Portillo to establish a lasting media career - and unlike the former member for Enfield Southgate, he got to it immediately, rather than giving Westminster another go first.

Didn't Currie and Mellor also do so to a significant extent? That would be four - I suppose there might be more amongst the 2024 losers, but perhaps only because of the existence of GB News.

[Torrain]

Didn't Currie and Mellor also do so to a significant extent? That would be four - I suppose there might be more amongst the 2024 losers, but perhaps only because of the existence of GB News.

Hadn't thought about that pair - I stand corrected!

I do still see Currie pop up occasionally, mostly to take digs at John Major, or launch hottakes about millennials and feminism.

Hadn't realised Mellor had a second act too. His focus is classical music and football, and I'll admit that, beyond the world cup and sticking Classic FM on while I'm driving, I'm just not engaged enough in either field to have come across him there.

What I found remarkable about Brandreth, though, is his staying power. He started early, and was writing books and doing HIGNFY basically as soon as he lost, and just never stopped - to the point that he’s still hosting, presenting, and podcasting like some sort of publicity fiend.

Lots of MPs tried, of course, in the wake of 1997. Andrew Mitchell (in his 1997-2001 period, outside parliament, long before plebgate and the international development brief) did a whole BBC documentary about it how hard it was to be an ex-MP, and how challenging it was to find a private sector career, when there were scores of ex-MPs jostling for the same few lobbying and media positions.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Lots of MPs tried, of course, in the wake of 1997. Andrew Mitchell (in his 1997-2001 period, outside parliament, long before plebgate and the international development brief) did a whole BBC documentary about it how hard it was to be an ex-MP, and how challenging it was to find a private sector career, when there were scores of ex-MPs jostling for the same few lobbying and media positions.

This is why there are always a lot of curiously early retirement announcements if it is clear that a party is going to lose a lot of seats: if you can get the networking done and jobs lined up before the election you should be able to beat the rush and land softly enough. Things can be very cold outside for those unable to do that, at least until they turn sixty five and get their pension.

[JimJamUK]

Brandreth is unusual in that his media career has very little to do with politics. Most of it involves his eccentric personality, and even when giving his views on current affairs I doubt most viewers would know he was a Tory MP decades ago.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Brandreth is unusual in that his media career has very little to do with politics. Most of it involves his eccentric personality, and even when giving his views on current affairs I doubt most viewers would know he was a Tory MP decades ago.

Especially as it was only for one term. He was a well-known radio and breakfast TV presenter before his brief political career. His selection for a very vulnerable constituency raised eyebrows at the time and he was never taken seriously as an MP.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I assume this is the same Gyles Brandreth busy trying to flog his books about the royal family these days?

That's him.

Twee as he can be, Brandreth is probably one of the better role models for swing-seat Conservatives thinking about what might happen next...

He's basically the only 1997 loser other than Portillo to establish a lasting media career - and unlike the former member for Enfield Southgate, he got to it immediately, rather than giving Westminster another go first.

Didn't Currie and Mellor also do so to a significant extent? That would be four - I suppose there might be more amongst the 2024 losers, but perhaps only because of the existence of GB News.

Does Neil Hamilton count?

[MaxQue]

I would assume that Brandreth is the only one to have some audience in foreign countries, too.

[AustralianSwingVoter]

I can’t think of a single Brandreth program that’s aired here in Oz, other than the occasional panel show appearance. Portillo on the other hand definitely has an international audience thanks to his rail travel shows on constant reruns.

[MaxQue]

I can’t think of a single Brandreth program that’s aired here in Oz, other than the occasional panel show appearance. Portillo on the other hand definitely has an international audience thanks to his rail travel shows on constant reruns.

Oh, he never appeared on TV, here, some newspaper keeps talking to him as a "royal family expert".