This Wretched Hive Of Scum And Villainy

[Torrain]

The Conservatives have picked their candidate for the new, pretty safe seat of Harpenden and Berkhamstead.

Slight snag - he’s a lobbyist who represented both the Russian Government, and a number of Russian state-owned companies throughout the 2000s.

Not ideal.

[JimJamUK]

The Conservatives have picked their candidate for the new, pretty safe seat of Harpenden and Berkhamstead.

Slight snag - he’s a lobbyist who represented both the Russian Government, and a number of Russian state-owned companies throughout the 2000s.

Also nominated multiple times as a Labour candidate, which the constituency party apparently did not know until after they selected him.

[CumbrianLefty]

The person in question was a Labour supporter until after the 2010 GE - never mind the involvement with Putin, how on earth did they miss that??

[Torrain]

Sir Alok Sharma has annoucned he's stepping down at the next election.

No great surprise, given he was reported as on Johnson's peerage list for months, and seemed content to step back from government when his COP chaimanship ended (not that Sunak gave him much choice).

Reading West in its current form is a classic bellwether - Tory until Labour took it in 1997, then flipping blue again in 2010. Sharma won slim 2.8k and 4.1k majorities in 2017 and 2019, so it's right on the line. It's being redrawn as Reading West and Mid Berkshire for the next election - which I believe make it rather more Conservative? Still getting to grips with the prediction tools.

[JimJamUK]

Reading West in its current form is a classic bellwether - Tory until Labour took it in 1997, then flipping blue again in 2010. Sharma won slim 2.8k and 4.1k majorities in 2017 and 2019, so it's right on the line. It's being redrawn as Reading West and Mid Berkshire for the next election - which I believe make it rather more Conservative? Still getting to grips with the prediction tools.

Definitely. It loses 4/7 of its Reading council wards while gaining a large chunk of rural mid Berkshire. If an election was held today I’d imagine it would still be Tory held.

[Oryxslayer]

Sir Alok Sharma has annoucned he's stepping down at the next election.

No great surprise, given he was reported as on Johnson's peerage list for months, and seemed content to step back from government when his COP chaimanship ended (not that Sunak gave him much choice).

Reading West in its current form is a classic bellwether - Tory until Labour took it in 1997, then flipping blue again in 2010. Sharma won slim 2.8k and 4.1k majorities in 2017 and 2019, so it's right on the line. It's being redrawn as Reading West and Mid Berkshire for the next election - which I believe make it rather more Conservative? Still getting to grips with the prediction tools.

Definitely. It loses 4/7 of its Reading council wards while gaining a large chunk of rural mid Berkshire. If an election was held today I’d imagine it would still be Tory held.

The new Earley and Woodley inherits the previous marginality of course, though under the current situation I wouldn't expect it to be marginal. Similarly, some of the models suggest the new Reading West still would go marginally Labour under current polling, but this close to the point where the numbers start getting more hypothetical with MOEs rather than good estimates.

[CumbrianLefty]

Sharma at least seems to have spared them the by-election that did seem very possible at one point.

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/peterwalker99/status/1707871279645102474
Sunak unironically parroting the “15 minute city” conspiracy stuff… I’m so tired.

[icc]

Basically more limitations on councils. Sigh.

[CumbrianLefty]

Most of this stuff is going to be basically unenforceable for all sorts of reasons. Which gives away what it is *really* about - getting fawning coverage in the still captive press, of course.

[Torrain]

Some Tory Kremlinology in the Times this week that seems interesting (grain of salt, though):

• No.10 assumes Braverman wants to be shuffled out. Exact quote: "If you want to be the Queen over the water, she might think it’s best to get off the island."
• Rees-Mogg wants to be Shadow Chancellor to a hardline LOTO.
• Badenoch held a meeting with key MP supporter about how to fine-tune her speech to appeal to the grassroots. They were, alas, overheard.
• Brandon Lewis (aided by Nadhim Zahawi) is sounding out support to become the Trussite standard bearer. Hearty chuckle at that one.
• Priti Patel is seen as an alternative standard-bearer for the mainstream right within the party- hence her reemergence, criticising Braverman this week, and defending multiculturalism.
• Mordaunt is campaigning hard on the dinner circuit, but fears she will lose Portsmouth North are dampening what remains of enthusiasm for her.
• The Tory Left lack a standardbearer. Gillian Keegan was briefly considered, but her stock has fallen, since, well, you know. Neither Hunt nor Tugendhat seem enthused, or plausible.
• Remarkably, Claire Coutinho, who's been in cabinet for mere weeks, is being touted as the continuity Sunak candidate.

Current suggestion seems to be that the reshuffle will happen in late October (after conference, the Rwanda ruling on Oct 9th, the by-elections on Oct 19th, and ahead of the King's Speech on Nov 7th and Autumn Statement on Nov 22nd).

[Blair]

Mordaunt is 100% the vibes candidate; other than being at Defence for two months she's not had a big department job & just seems to be someone who can crack a good line and is happy to go on the political attack in the weird 'rah I'll take no lectures' while cracking jokes that get a good write up in Guido & the Times.

She's very marmite even among Tories; some of the wettest tories I know love her while those on the right really dislike her. IIRC her likely MP backer last time was a white brexiteer in their 30s or 40s iirc.

The stuff about Badenoch being 'details focused' is hilarious if you've seen her during ministerial questions...

I would put money on Priti Patel- she was ironically attacking Braverman from the left!

[Blair]

A sign that Patel is a serious operator is that despite having a soviet majority she is very pointed & clear about her current role as a backbench constituency MP- she is regularly in the House of Commons talking about the latest issue and is pointed enough to make clear she is expecting the Government to act.

[Torrain]

Huh - I hadn’t considered Patel as a contender until now. She’s clearly active (as you say, as a constituency MP and active backbencher on her key areas). But I’d assumed her leadership of the CDO (and therefore candidate selections) was the closest she’d planned to get to the leadership.

But I must say, after her interview about Braverman, she does seem to be actively taking steps. My money had been on Cleverly as the dark horse alternative to Braverman and Badenoch - but maybe Patel has better credentials in a race where one/both of that pair are leading the pack. 

[Coldstream]

A sign that Patel is a serious operator is that despite having a soviet majority she is very pointed & clear about her current role as a backbench constituency MP- she is regularly in the House of Commons talking about the latest issue and is pointed enough to make clear she is expecting the Government to act.

Always felt Patel is underrated. She’s quite impressive in person, in contrast to Braverman who comes off exactly as insane as she does on TV. I doubt she’ll be leader, but I wouldn’t be shocked if she came back to the front bench.

[CumbrianLefty]

Her ratings are terrible, though.

She has to find a way of correcting that before being taken seriously.

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/AdamBienkov/status/1708780396853313804
Kruger is, of course, Kruger. But still feels jarring to hear sitting MPs who aren't Andrew Bridgen espouse this level of conspiracy at party conference.

Edit: the Transport Secretary just did a whole routine on 15 minute cities on the main stage, so I guess that's just the vibe this year. Truss is about to speak on the fringe, so I assume she's not going to break the trend.

[Torrain]

https://twitter.com/breeallegretti/status/1708820765607387546

[Blair]

The THIGMOO reaction to someone like Truss and what they did to the Governments brand would be to suspend them, appoint some sort of board of inquiry and then spend 100 years refusing to utter their name like their Voldemort.

We still ignore Ramsay Macdonald! Did the party even celebrate the 100th anniversary of the first Labour Government- of course not

[Oryxslayer]

The THIGMOO reaction to someone like Truss and what they did to the Governments brand would be to suspend them, appoint some sort of board of inquiry and then spend 100 years refusing to utter their name like their Voldemort.

We still ignore Ramsay Macdonald! Did the party even celebrate the 100th anniversary of the first Labour Government- of course not

It would seem that this is the foul harvest reaped by constant denial that Labour are leading by 20 points and that the country at present hates the Conservatives as a whole, but also secretly knowing things are bleak. If Labour really only has a tiny lead and the polls are all wrong, then Truss, Johnson, and the rest did nothing wrong. But because the collapse is real some percentage of Tories are seeking ways to radically change direction, and make Hail Marys  in the hopes that one changes the situation. The other percentage though have just given up, accepted the loss, and therefore see it as the time for the unpopular dogma that wouldn't go anywhere when you actually care about reelection.

[afleitch]

https://twitter.com/joss_prior/status/1708837819588722863

Who could have foreseen 😶😏

[YL]

https://twitter.com/joss_prior/status/1708837819588722863

Who could have foreseen 😶😏

Why does she say Labour will back it?

That list isn't even Tory policy (yet); it's a list of proposals from the "New Conservatives", who seem to be a similar grouping to the "National Conservatives" but have possibly realised that a name which could easily be abbreviated to "NatC" was a poor choice.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I like the idea of a Labour Party policy being introduced with the intro "repeal Labour's laws".

[Torrain]

Just to round off the day:

• The Energy Secretary cheerily admitted to making up a Labour plan to tax meat for her speech, and then spiralled while being pressed on the untruth by Sky’s Sophie Ridge (clip here).
• The Conservative Mayor of the West Midlands gave an emergency press conference denouncing the HS2 rollback, and refused to rule out resigning if Sunak does axe it.
• And the Tory candidate for London Mayor declared that the Jewish community in London is “scared” of Sadiq Khan. Which, just, eesh.

To end on a lighter note, here’s the Conservative Party Chairman reevaluating his life choices as he advertises Keir Starmer Flip Flops on national tv:

[Pericles]

The Tory Party is clearly already in its comfort zone as a disorganised rabble starting a decade in Opposition, it's just a shame for the British people that they're still technically in government.