This Wretched Hive Of Scum And Villainy

[Torrain]

Cash appears not to have been an isolated incident:
https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1701700976741376273

[CumbrianLefty]

Labour are the unpatriotic ones, though.

[Cassius]

I mean, if it comes from MI5 (or from any source in the British defence establishment) than we can safely say it’s wrong.

[YL]

Stephen Hammond, MP for Wimbledon and one of the few of the 21 MPs who lost the whip in September 2019 to have been given it back and to have stood again as a Tory, has announced he is not standing again.  He only narrowly won and some calculations suggest his seat has already been notionally flipped to the Lib Dems by the boundary review.

[Alcibiades]

Stephen Hammond, MP for Wimbledon and one of the few of the 21 MPs who lost the whip in September 2019 to have been given it back and to have stood again as a Tory, has announced he is not standing again.  He only narrowly won and some calculations suggest his seat has already been notionally flipped to the Lib Dems by the boundary review.

He’s my local MP, but I’m hearing it from you for the first time. Can’t say I’m surprised; he’s always struck me as a loyal Party Man, but one who is ideologically very moderate and/or pragmatic, depending on your point of view, and I can’t imagine, given everything, that his heart is really in it any more.

[Torrain]

I’ll always remember that time he tried to insult Liz Truss from his anonymous twitter account, and accidentally logged into his official MP handle instead.

[Coldstream]

Stephen Hammond, MP for Wimbledon and one of the few of the 21 MPs who lost the whip in September 2019 to have been given it back and to have stood again as a Tory, has announced he is not standing again.  He only narrowly won and some calculations suggest his seat has already been notionally flipped to the Lib Dems by the boundary review.

Although we came 3rd in 2019, Labour aren’t writing this one off either - could be an interesting vote split. Seems to have annoyed the Lib Dem’s more than us going for Two Cities or FGG - perhaps understandable given the respective circumstances in the 3 seats but still, should be one to watch.

[Blair]

It is the one seat where I actually have no idea who has the best claim.

[Alcibiades]

FWIW my money would still be on the Lib Dems. They dominated here at the most recent locals at the expense of both the Tories and Labour, winning two-thirds of council seats within the constituency. Also, unlike Two Cities or Finchley & Golders Green, they ran a popular local councillor in 2019 who is running again at the next general election, rather than a celebrity defector. It’s a very real possibility that Labour push the Tories into third place though.

[CumbrianLefty]

I agree, and if it really *is* a notional LibDem seat now its even harder to see them not winning it.

(Tories actually in third may not be impossible though)

[Torrain]

There’s a piece in the Telegraph today about the behind-the-scenes push for the Truss mini-budget to include a switch to a 20% Estonia style flat tax, at a cost of £41 billion Apparently Rees-Mogg wrote a 600 page ‘memo’ on it, which Truss was receptive to.

Apparently Kwarteng binned it as too extreme (although given the breakdown in relations, it’s possible he’s responsible for the story).

Given what attempted abolition of the 45% rate did to the pound, can’t imagine what this proposal would have done. Insane that they really thought they could fundamentally reshape the country with no mandate, no manifesto, and (as it turned out) absolutely no public support.

[Zinneke]

Did the breakdown in relations occur when Truss sacked Kwarteng or later?

[JimJamUK]

There’s a piece in the Telegraph today about the behind-the-scenes push for the Truss mini-budget to include a switch to a 20% Estonia style flat tax, at a cost of £41 billion Apparently Rees-Mogg wrote a 600 page ‘memo’ on it, which Truss was receptive to.

Apparently Kwarteng binned it as too extreme (although given the breakdown in relations, it’s possible he’s responsible for the story).

Given what attempted abolition of the 45% rate did to the pound, can’t imagine what this proposal would have done. Insane that they really thought they could fundamentally reshape the country with no mandate, no manifesto, and (as it turned out) absolutely no public support.

Interesting that they actually tried to pay for this proposal. The mini budget was reliant on the tax cuts spurring enough growth to pay for itself, rather than paying for it by raising other taxes or cutting spending. I can actually believe Truss and those around her believed their tax cuts were self-financing, so for them to have another plan which assumed otherwise is interesting (that said, I have no idea how credible the £41 billion figure is, there’s a non-insignificant chance it’s based on some very favourable assumptions). While obviously politically poisonous, I imagine the markets would have reacted better to a budget that did not seem to blow an even bigger hole in the deficit, which may have kept her around for a while longer.

[Torrain]

Did the breakdown in relations occur when Truss sacked Kwarteng or later?

They’ve never reconciled from the firing - by all accounts they haven’t spoken since. Kwarteng was summoned back to London from New York, but wasn’t formally told what was in store. His story is that he found out he would be fired via a journalist’s tweet, while in the car to Downing Street.

He views it as a futile attempt to save her own skin, six days before she was forced to resign herself.

[YL]

Did the breakdown in relations occur when Truss sacked Kwarteng or later?

They’ve never reconciled from the firing - by all accounts they haven’t spoken since. Kwarteng was summoned back to London from New York, but wasn’t formally told what was in store. His story is that he found out he would be fired via a journalist’s tweet, while in the car to Downing Street.

He views it as a futile attempt to save her own skin, six days before she was forced to resign herself.

That could be because it was...

[Blair]

Did the breakdown in relations occur when Truss sacked Kwarteng or later?

There was a dust up & big argument at conference over dropping the plans to cut the top rate of tax.

I remember watching the mini-budget & thinking that was by far the most tone deaf part of it.

It feels like such a strange episode especially due to the re-writing of it we're seeing now; some true believers claim it could have been done if not handled so badly. I think the economic theory behind it was wrong, but equally it was true that it was done as badly as Conservative reforms could be; the fact it wasn't a budget, the fact it didn't have an OBR score, the fact they sacked the chief civil servant at the Treasury and the fact that Kwasi went on TV and said there could be further tax cuts meant that the international forces of capital (using a deliberately vague phrase) basically assumed the UK Government had lost sense of reality and begun to really worry about how safe treasury bonds were.

Ironic seeing the historical handwringing about Labour & Wilson that 2022 actually saw two cases where the royal prerogative probably came a lot closer to being used than people want to admit...

[Blair]

It's also lost as it was so chaotic but Truss essentially loaded, aimed & handed the cannon to rival MPS to bring down her premiership; the three major MPs who were out on the airwaves & raising doubt over the mini-budget where Michael Gove, Grant Shapps and Mel Stride- all of whom are now senior cabinet ministers.

It was a ridiculous mistake of hers to appoint such a factional cabinet; she appointed her closest ally & friend Therese Coffey as Health Secretary & DPM, appointed inexperienced lackeys in key roles such as Chief Whip and ideologues to the key economic positions- it is on the whole a very good lesson in how not to run a country and one which senior Conservatives should study.

[CumbrianLefty]

I still recall the exultant triumphalism from the likes of Allister Heath the day after the mini-budget.

They genuinely believed that they had carried off "a Very British Coup".

In retrospect, one interesting thing is how calmly Reeves and Starmer responded to it - almost as if they knew it was going to blow up in the Tories faces within days.

[Torrain]

Dehenna Davidson has resigned as Levelling Up Minister, citing chronic migraines and desire to spend more time in her constituency in the “limited time” remaining in this parliament.

Quite a trajectory - entered parliament in 2019, labelled a rising star, fired the opening shot for Truss’ leadership election, survived to hold her job under Sunak, and now headed out of both government and parliament, all within one term.

Worth noting - the word is that Sunak is planning a clear-out of ministers who are stepping down from Parliament next year, in the end-of-year reshuffle. So this might be part of that.

Edit: Jacob Young, 2019-intake MP for Redcar appointed to fill the slot.

[Torrain]

We’re back to leaked WhatsApps and hostile briefings - trouble is brewing
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1704445229523210578

[Filuwaúrdjan]

...citing chronic migraines...

Yes, I'm sure that's the reason. Fundamentally (and unlike most of the 2019 intake, which will, I think, always be remembered as a notable vintage, but not in a good way) she is not an idiot and will understand the value of getting out early to avoid the rush. She is also young enough that it is possible that politics was simply not what she expected it to be.

[CumbrianLefty]

I didn't take it seriously, but the fact there was even a half-assed rumour about her crossing the floor a while back told its own story really. She really does sound like she will be happier out of it.

[Torrain]

Former Welsh Secretary David Jones is retiring. He’s been MP for Clwyd West since 2005, and holds a 6.7k majority over Labour. It was held by Labour prior to that, with them holding a series of slim majorities since its creation in 1997.

[JimJamUK]

I didn't take it seriously, but the fact there was even a half-assed rumour about her crossing the floor a while back told its own story really. She really does sound like she will be happier out of it.

Given she backed Truss on ideological grounds, truly so.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Former Welsh Secretary David Jones is retiring. He’s been MP for Clwyd West since 2005, and holds a 6.7k majority over Labour. It was held by Labour prior to that, with them holding a series of slim majorities since its creation in 1997.

The constituency is abolished by the boundary changes. He was facing a selection battle against another incumbent whichever of the two new constituencies that take in the bulk of his constituency and then a GE fight in pretty difficult circumstances.