French presidential election, 2022

[Oryxslayer]

So they release a projection at 8 pm? Is that usually pretty accurate to what the end result ends up being?

Normally yes.

Yeah, when you have data to feed into the models, the MOE becomes something small enough that decision desks feel confident making calls. Obviously there is still that MOE - there is limited urban data for example which led to Melenchon's projected number consistently rising during the round 1 count - but if/when a winner is called you can stand by it.

[Gass3268]

Any good English speaking streams?

[MABA 2020]

So they release a projection at 8 pm? Is that usually pretty accurate to what the end result ends up being?

Yes, it's a projection based on exit polls and votes counted after 7pm.

I think it's just based on a sample of votes counted.

Okay cool, just half hour to go then

[Mike88]

Any good English speaking streams?

France 24 english coverage:

So they release a projection at 8 pm? Is that usually pretty accurate to what the end result ends up being?

Yes, it's a projection based on exit polls and votes counted after 7pm.

I think it's just based on a sample of votes counted.

Ah, right. Yeah, maybe is just with a sample of votes, not sure. Nonetheless, it's very accurate.

[Gass3268]

Any good English speaking streams?

France 24 english coverage:

So they release a projection at 8 pm? Is that usually pretty accurate to what the end result ends up being?

Yes, it's a projection based on exit polls and votes counted after 7pm.

I think it's just based on a sample of votes counted.

Ah, right. Yeah, maybe is just with a sample of votes, not sure. Nonetheless, it's very accurate.

Thank you!

[All Along The Watchtower]

Reports are that voters are enthusiastic about the choices.

[rob in cal]

 What percentage would Le Pen have to hit to have won France outside of Paris and its regional area (is that the IDF?).  And will Le Pen have a shot to win the white French vote?

[Antonio the Sixth]

What percentage would Le Pen have to hit to have won France outside of Paris and its regional area (is that the IDF?).

Back-of-the evelope math suggests that if you take the 2017 results and apply uniform national swing to get Macron at 55%, you get something like 70% in IdF. IdF is about 15% of the vote, so that's about 10% for Macron, 5% for Le Pen. Which means the rest of France would be something like 45% Macron, 40% Le Pen, or renormalized, 53% Macron 47% Le Pen. So if you get Macron down to 52% nationally, UNS suggests that Le Pen might win the rest of France. Still highly speculative, of course.

And will Le Pen have a shot to win the white French vote?

There's no such thing as "the white French vote" statistically speaking, because France doesn't recognize any ethnic categorizations. Anyway even if we did, the answer is almost certainly no.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Just check election Twitter for any rumblings and for some bizarre reason there is a bunch of dooming Le Pen voters complaining Macron winning will lead to further divisions in France which would seem a weird thing to complain about as I don’t know how you can argue that someone as polarizing as Le Pen wouldn’t case divisions?

[Matty]

Just check election Twitter for any rumblings and for some bizarre reason there is a bunch of dooming Le Pen voters complaining Marvin winning will lead to further divisions in France which would seem a weird thing to complain about as I don’t know how you can argue that someone as polarizing as Le Pen wouldn’t case divisions?

who dis

[Oryxslayer]

Just check election Twitter for any rumblings and for some bizarre reason there is a bunch of dooming Le Pen voters complaining Marvin winning will lead to further divisions in France which would seem a weird thing to complain about as I don’t know how you can argue that someone as polarizing as Le Pen wouldn’t case divisions?

There would be protests and riots during the tenures of either president...it is France after all...

[MR DARK BRANDON]

Just check election Twitter for any rumblings and for some bizarre reason there is a bunch of dooming Le Pen voters complaining Marvin winning will lead to further divisions in France which would seem a weird thing to complain about as I don’t know how you can argue that someone as polarizing as Le Pen wouldn’t case divisions?

who dis

I have a friend named Marvin so maybe ppl are writing him in?

[Hindsight was 2020]

Just check election Twitter for any rumblings and for some bizarre reason there is a bunch of dooming Le Pen voters complaining Marvin winning will lead to further divisions in France which would seem a weird thing to complain about as I don’t know how you can argue that someone as polarizing as Le Pen wouldn’t case divisions?

who dis

Auto correct betrays me again 😭

[Oryxslayer]

Ipsos exit poll: 58.2% Macron.

[Mike88]

TF1 projection:

58.0% Macron
42.0% Le Pen

[jaichind]

Macron wins with 57.3-58.2

[MR DARK BRANDON]

VIVE MACRON

[afleitch]

Macron wins with 57.3-58.2

Yes. Yes he does.

[President Johnson]

VIVE MACRON!

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1518289171156189194

[Leading Political Consultant Ma Anand Sheela]

Dédiabolisation means Le Pen is now subject to the Poher '69 threshold, below which you don't even get to walk away with a shred of dignity.

Oh no, too bad, so sad

[parochial boy]

et un, et deux, et cinq ans de plus?

Macron's fans maths capabilities explaining his economic policies there

In any case, one rancid group of people celebrate while an even more rancid group commiserate. What a lucky country.

[BlueSwan]

Excellent news. We badly needed this.

[Coldstream]

Already excited to see Edoard Phillippe beat Marine Le Pen 55-45 in the 2027 run off.

[MABA 2020]

Oh good we can all breathe easy

[Mike88]

Guardian results page:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2022/apr/24/french-election-2022-live-results-projection-second-round-emmanuel-macron-marine-le-pen