USA 2020 Census Results Thread (Release: Today, 26 April)

[ajc0918]

These numbers seem very positive for Dems. The lost seats in Texas and Florida would have almost definitely been GOP seats.

[Brittain33]

NJ growing 6% is also ... unexpected.

9.3 million vs. 8.9 million expected.

Ocean County baby!

LOL at NJ-13 showing up on the list of just-missed seats

[MT Treasurer]

Ohio was closer to keeping their seat than Arizona was to gaining theirs.

But seriously, how did this happen? This must be a major undercount in the Sunbelt, no? No way the projections could be this far off.

[Gass3268]

Also it's also a real shame about IL. Chicago really is a wonderful city with so much to offer, but the state is just so badly governed.

My wife and I limited the bleeding!

[sting in the rafters]

Colorado gaining more than Zona? Well I’ll be..... thought AZ was a shoo-in with how fast the Valley’s exploded

[Brittain33]

Answer the Census?

The North remembers.

[Sol]

These patterns seem extremely suggestive of large Latino under-counts, likely down to the Trump admin's relentless politicizing and citizenship question.

[Crumpets]

I'd be curious to see how this changes %VEP turnout maps from the last election.

[Roronoa D. Law]

I truly believe the Hispanic community was undercounted. We won't know for sure till the June release but right now we got to work with the incoming metropolitan and county-level results.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Ugh at FL only getting one while MN doesnt lose any

[ultraviolet]

This feels weirdly informal

"Are you there Michelle?"

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

New York was 89 people away from not losing any seats?

What.

I guess when those people were declaring "I'm leaving New York!" they actually meant leaving Manhattan for Westchester or LI.

Or barely anyone other than a few self-important pundits actually left cities?

Anyway, this is good but CA losing while so many other places don't is just disgusting.

[AGA]

New York was 89 people away from not losing any seats?

What.

I guess when those people were declaring "I'm leaving New York!" they actually meant leaving Manhattan for Westchester or LI.

To be fair, these numbers are for April 1.

[Tender Branson]

2020 Overseas Population (Military + Family)

350,686

https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/decennial/2020/data/apportionment/apportionment-2020-table03.pdf

2010 Overseas Population (Military + Family)

1,042,523

https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/decennial/2010/data/apportionment/apport2010-table3.pdf

2000 Overseas Population (Military + Family)

576,367

https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/decennial/2000/data/apportionment/transmittal-package-table-3.pdf

1990 Overseas Population (Military + Family)

922,819

https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/decennial/1990/data/apportionment/taba.pdf

---

700.000 overseas military + families moving back to the mainland between 2010-20 might have contributed to the resident population overcount of 2 million (331.5 million) vs. the estimates (329.5 million).

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Ok, what the hell happened with Arizona? Waiting for someone to ask but it's not like they're answering anyway

Vacation homes vs permanent residents+immigrant undercount?

[Brittain33]

These patterns seem extremely suggestive of large Latino under-counts, likely down to the Trump admin's relentless politicizing and citizenship question.

Yes, but if so, not in NY or NJ...

[LabourJersey]

New York was 89 people away from not losing any seats?

What.

I guess when those people were declaring "I'm leaving New York!" they actually meant leaving Manhattan for Westchester or LI.

Or barely anyone other than a few self-important pundits actually left cities?

Anyway, this is good but CA losing while so many other places don't is just disgusting.

Oh there were definitely people who left cities, just 1) not as much as the media portrayed it, and 2) not as far from major cities as the media also portrayed--people moved from Manhattan to Jersey City/Westchester, or from DC to Arlington/Alexandria

[Boss_Rahm]

THE TABLES !!!

https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/decennial/2020/data/apportionment/population-change-data-table.pdf

NY over 20 million !!

PA over 13 million !

Based on these numbers NY appears to be about 3,000 people off from the last seat, not 89. Unless I'm doing the calculation wrong.

[MT Treasurer]

Also, can’t wait for the imminent (and asinine) 269-269 TIE scenarios/maps/threads on the 2024 board.

[Gass3268]

Minnesota will probably pass Wisconsin by 2030. Wisconsin seams like a lock to lose a seat then too.

[KaiserDave]

New York underestimated again, nobody actually leaves! You are stuck here forever

[Roronoa D. Law]

These patterns seem extremely suggestive of large Latino under-counts, likely down to the Trump admin's relentless politicizing and citizenship question.

Yes, but if so, not in NY or NJ...

You could say there is less of a negative stigma of immigration in Democratic states.

[Skill and Chance]

These patterns seem extremely suggestive of large Latino under-counts, likely down to the Trump admin's relentless politicizing and citizenship question.

The next question is whether things have shifted enough to alter existing VRA district requirements in SW states.  

[Skill and Chance]

Also, can’t wait for the imminent (and asinine) 269-269 TIE scenarios/maps/threads on the 2024 board.

It's a lot more probable now with AZ staying at an odd number of EVs.

[Gass3268]

Anyone have the first 2030 estimates? lol