USA 2020 Census Results Thread (Release: Today, 26 April)

[Tender Branson]

Official Results:

APRIL 26, 2021 – The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that the 2020 Census shows the resident population of the United States on April 1, 2020, was 331,449,281.

The U.S. resident population represents the total number of people living in the 50 states and the District of Columbia. The resident population increased by 22,703,743 or 7.4% from 308,745,538 in 2010.

Apportionment population:

331,108,434

The 2020 Census apportionment population includes the resident population of the 50 states, plus a count of the U.S. military personnel and federal civilian employees living outside the United States (and their dependents living with them) who can be allocated to a home state. The population of the District of Columbia is not included in the apportionment population.

Apportionment is the process of dividing the 435 memberships, or seats, in the U.S. House of Representatives among the 50 states. At the conclusion of each decennial census, the results are used to calculate the number of seats to which each state is entitled. Each of the 50 states is entitled to a minimum of one seat in the U.S. House of Representatives.

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2021/2020-census-apportionment-results.html

https://www.census.gov/data/tables/2020/dec/2020-apportionment-data.html

https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/newsroom/press-kits/2021/20210426-apportionment-presentation.pdf

https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2021/04/2020-census-data-release.html

[Pink Panther]

I am pretty pumped about any surprises, not going to lie.

[Biden his time]

Overview of Expected Apportionment Changes between 2010 - 2020

The numbers below refer to the number of Congressional Districts expected in each state.

TX: 36 to 39 (+3)

FL: 27 to 29 (+2)

NC: 13 to 14 (+1)

AZ: 9 to 10 (+1)

CO: 7 to 8 (+1)

OR: 5 to 6 (+1)

MT: 1 to 2 (+1)

CA: 53 to 52 (-1)

NY: 27 to 26 (-1)

PA: 18 to 17 (-1)

IL: 18 to 17 (-1)

OH: 16 to 15 (-1)

MI: 14 to 13 (-1)

MN: 8 to 7 (-1)

AL: 7 to 6 (-1)

WV: 3 to 2 (-1)

RI: 2 to 1 (-1)


The data above is taken from Election Data Services' 2020 Reapportionment Study (April 01, 2020 variant), which takes place annually based on data provided by the Census Bureau's Vintage Population Estimates.

I've listed it above for the purposes of comparison with the actual results when they're released.


The main alternate possibilities are (only including those states for which a count of only 50,000 people over or under the projected amount could make a difference, listed in no particular order):

• Alabama keeps its 7th Congressional District instead of losing one.
• New York loses two Congressional Districts instead of one, going down to 25.
• Montana does not gain a second Congressional District.
• Minnesota keeps its 8th Congressional District instead of losing one.
• Florida gains one Congressional District instead of two (as if lol), going up to 28.
• Idaho gains a 3rd Congressional District rather than staying stable.

Anything outside of this would be a rather large upset, considering the Census Bureau's estimates. Also, keep in mind that the alternate possibilities above can only occur in pairs (if one state unexpectedly gains or keeps a seat, another state will face a loss) due to the stable number of representatives in the U.S. House.


Will this thread be pinned to replace the 2010 - 2019 Estimates thread currently up?

...

Yo Tender it's been a while you may want to remove the "Today" from the title of this thread

[OBD]

We better get that goddamned 6th District this time.

[Tender Branson]

Will this thread be pinned to replace the 2010 - 2019 Estimates thread currently up?

I would hope so.

The intercensal estimates are of no use anymore and need to be re-calculated, once the new census numbers are out.

[Tender Branson]

Census Bureau to Host Educational Webinar to Provide Insights on Upcoming Quality Metrics Release

What:

Affirming its commitment to data quality and transparency, the U.S. Census Bureau plans for the first time to release a number of data quality indicators along with the first results from the 2020 Census.

These metrics are scheduled for release later this month and will provide information on the status of addresses in the census and how we resolved addresses across each of the data collection modes.

The Census Bureau will hold a technical webinar to give more insight on these initial 2020 Census data quality metrics.

While this webinar will not include any 2020 Census data, it will give a preview of the type and meaning behind the data quality metrics that will be available in the coming months.

A live media Q&A session will immediately follow the webinar.

When:

Wednesday, April 21, 2021
1 p.m. EDT

Who:

Michael Bentley, assistant division chief for Census Statistical Support, Decennial Statistical Studies Division, U.S. Census Bureau

Virginia Hyer, chief, Public Relations Branch, Public Information Office, U.S. Census Bureau (moderator)

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2021/webinar-quality-metrics-release.html

[Tender Branson]

Biden To Make Historic Census Director Pick With Latino Statistician Rob Santos

In a historic move, President Biden is naming Robert Santos, one of the country's leading statisticians and the American Statistical Association's president, as his intended nominee to head the U.S. Census Bureau.

If confirmed by the Senate, Santos, who is Latino, would be the first permanent director of color for the federal government's largest statistical agency, which is in charge of major surveys and the once-a-decade head count used for distributing political representation and funding around the United States.

The White House announced Santos as Biden's intended nominee in a statement released on Tuesday. Depending on the timing of a confirmation, Santos could finish the term left open by former Director Steven Dillingham that is ending this year. Dillingham was the Trump-appointed director who quit in January after whistleblowers filed complaints about Dillingham's role in trying to rush out an incomplete data report on noncitizens. Santos could be reappointed after the end of a first term, according to federal law.

https://www.npr.org/2021/04/13/986612530/biden-to-make-historic-census-director-pick-with-latinx-statistician-rob-santos

[bagelman]

We better get that goddamned 6th District this time.

Rhode Island ain't even keeping 2 lol _{I know you're from Oregon but your avatar is a filthy liar.}

Biden To Make Historic Census Director Pick With Latino Statistician Rob Santos

In a historic move, President Biden is naming Robert Santos, one of the country's leading statisticians and the American Statistical Association's president, as his intended nominee to head the U.S. Census Bureau.

If confirmed by the Senate, Santos, who is Latino, would be the first permanent director of color for the federal government's largest statistical agency, which is in charge of major surveys and the once-a-decade head count used for distributing political representation and funding around the United States.

The White House announced Santos as Biden's intended nominee in a statement released on Tuesday. Depending on the timing of a confirmation, Santos could finish the term left open by former Director Steven Dillingham that is ending this year. Dillingham was the Trump-appointed director who quit in January after whistleblowers filed complaints about Dillingham's role in trying to rush out an incomplete data report on noncitizens. Santos could be reappointed after the end of a first term, according to federal law.

https://www.npr.org/2021/04/13/986612530/biden-to-make-historic-census-director-pick-with-latinx-statistician-rob-santos

So tedious that they always make it about race. More relevant is that he's bound to be better than any Trump appointee.

[Tender Branson]

Count imputation rates (= guesstimates of people not counted) will be similar to previous Censuses (ca. 0.5%):



Which means about 1.7 million people were not counted properly either by self-response, by a census taker (which includes info received from a landlord or neighbour), or by using administrative records.

[jimrtex]

Count imputation rates (= guesstimates of people not counted) will be similar to previous Censuses (ca. 0.5%):



Which means about 1.7 million people were not counted properly either by self-response, by a census taker (which includes info received from a landlord or neighbour), or by using administrative records.

The error due to count imputation will be much smaller. The Census Bureau assigns the count from a nearby housing unit . So some units with an actual count of two might be assigned a count of one, and some with an actual count of one might be assigned a count of three.

They may be able to compensate for systematic bias. That is, there may be demographic characteristics that are associated with housing units that had to be imputed.

Why did no one self-respond, why was no one able to be located during NRFU, why was no proxy identified, why were there no administrative records?

In the case of duplicate responses, the cause may be that no one assigned the housing unit to NRFU because they believed that they had a self-response. Perhaps someone responded in April in one location, and in July in another, and so it is unknown who lived at the second address in April.

[Tender Branson]

Count imputation rates (= guesstimates of people not counted) will be similar to previous Censuses (ca. 0.5%):



Which means about 1.7 million people were not counted properly either by self-response, by a census taker (which includes info received from a landlord or neighbour), or by using administrative records.

The error due to count imputation will be much smaller. The Census Bureau assigns the count from a nearby housing unit . So some units with an actual count of two might be assigned a count of one, and some with an actual count of one might be assigned a count of three.

They may be able to compensate for systematic bias. That is, there may be demographic characteristics that are associated with housing units that had to be imputed.

Why did no one self-respond, why was no one able to be located during NRFU, why was no proxy identified, why were there no administrative records?

In the case of duplicate responses, the cause may be that no one assigned the housing unit to NRFU because they believed that they had a self-response. Perhaps someone responded in April in one location, and in July in another, and so it is unknown who lived at the second address in April.

The CB already anticipated much higher unduplication than in 2010 before the 2020 census, because the Internet response was used for the first time.

People responded by Internet (maybe a lot of college students, using their university address), while their parents filled it out for them using their parents address.

Other cases include people who responded by Internet, then received a paper questionnaire and sent this back as well ...

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

The Reapportionment "question" is whether or not AL will lose a seat.

[Tender Branson]

Census Bureau to Host Educational Webinar to Provide Insights on Upcoming Quality Metrics Release

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2021/webinar-quality-metrics-release.html

This is happening right now.

Presentation:

https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/newsroom/press-kits/2021/20210421-webinar-presentation-2020-census-quality-metrics.pdf

First Results From the 2020 Census

• Available by April 30, 2020.

• The 2020 Census apportionment data will consist of three tables, similar to Tables 1 through 3 that were included in the 2010 Census apportionment data.

o Table 1 will include the apportionment population counts for each of the 50 states, the number of representatives to which each state is entitled based on the apportionment population, and the change (if any) since the 2010 Census in the number of representatives for each state. The data in Table 1 are what will be delivered to the president.

o Table 2 will include the 2020 Census resident population counts for the 50 states, the District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico.

o Table 3 will include the overseas population counts for the 50 states and the District of Columbia.

Quality and the 2020 Census

2020 Census Quality and Data Processing Blog Series.

The quality metrics release will consist of:

o A dashboard and blog focused on the operational quality metrics.

o A working paper and blog focused on comparisons of 2020 Census results to established benchmarks.

Demographic Analysis

Population Estimates

[Tender Branson]

For the first time ever, military members (stationed abroad) were counted in their current/last base of deployment on the mainland - not where they privately live:

https://www.npr.org/2021/04/22/989938913/potential-changes-from-census-changing-how-it-counted-deployed-u-s-troops-in-202

This will boost states with a lot/big military bases.

[Gass3268]

For the first time ever, military members (stationed abroad) were counted in their current/last base of deployment on the mainland - not where they privately live:

https://www.npr.org/2021/04/22/989938913/potential-changes-from-census-changing-how-it-counted-deployed-u-s-troops-in-202

This will boost states with a lot/big military bases.

Could this keep California at 53 or are they so far from the line it doesn't matter?

[Tender Branson]

For the first time ever, military members (stationed abroad) were counted in their current/last base of deployment on the mainland - not where they privately live:

https://www.npr.org/2021/04/22/989938913/potential-changes-from-census-changing-how-it-counted-deployed-u-s-troops-in-202

This will boost states with a lot/big military bases.

Could this keep California at 53 or are they so far from the line it doesn't matter?

If the CA population comes in lower than expected, people and the media will blame 2 reasons:

# a so-called „undercount“ of minorities and poor Whites (which is not supported by the data, because CA had a higher response rate than in 2010).

# the high living costs in the state, leading to out-migration to other states

[JerryArkansas]

For the first time ever, military members (stationed abroad) were counted in their current/last base of deployment on the mainland - not where they privately live:

https://www.npr.org/2021/04/22/989938913/potential-changes-from-census-changing-how-it-counted-deployed-u-s-troops-in-202

This will boost states with a lot/big military bases.

Could this keep California at 53 or are they so far from the line it doesn't matter?

Even if it doesn't it will balloon the population of San Deigo to a point where it may not have its districts required to grow substantially to take the loss of a district.

[Vern]

For the first time ever, military members (stationed abroad) were counted in their current/last base of deployment on the mainland - not where they privately live:

https://www.npr.org/2021/04/22/989938913/potential-changes-from-census-changing-how-it-counted-deployed-u-s-troops-in-202

This will boost states with a lot/big military bases.

Could this push NC pass GA?

[cinyc]

Census is going to report the date next week that the apportionment count will be released this afternoon.

[cinyc]

For the first time ever, military members (stationed abroad) were counted in their current/last base of deployment on the mainland - not where they privately live:

https://www.npr.org/2021/04/22/989938913/potential-changes-from-census-changing-how-it-counted-deployed-u-s-troops-in-202

This will boost states with a lot/big military bases.

Could this push NC pass GA?

Hard to say. It depends on who was deployed overseas where on April 1, 2020. GA has a large military base, too (Fort Benning). NC has Marine bases, though.

[Vosem]

Census is going to report the date next week that the apportionment count will be released this afternoon.

Did they end up making a decision?

[cinyc]

Census is going to report the date next week that the apportionment count will be released this afternoon.

Did they end up making a decision?

Not yet. My response was based on a Tweet from NPR Census Reporter Hansi Lo Wang:

https://twitter.com/hansilowang/status/1385656831104663559

I assumed afternoon, but it appears evening, if at all.

Census just put out their Tip Sheet and I don't see any mention of a release date in it.

[Tender Branson]

Census is going to report the date next week that the apportionment count will be released this afternoon.

Did they end up making a decision?

I think they will release it on the last possible date, April 30 (Friday).

Their release calendar has several new releases - other than the census - between Monday and Friday, but Friday is empty.

[Biden his time]

https://mobile.twitter.com/hansilowang/status/1385806913292705793

https://mobile.twitter.com/hansilowang/status/1385805700266283009

[jimrtex]

For the first time ever, military members (stationed abroad) were counted in their current/last base of deployment on the mainland - not where they privately live:

https://www.npr.org/2021/04/22/989938913/potential-changes-from-census-changing-how-it-counted-deployed-u-s-troops-in-202

This will boost states with a lot/big military bases.

You have garbled some things.

Military personnel have a duty station. This may be either in the United States or overseas. They may also be deployed for a shorter time to some other location.

US military who are stationed in the United States are counted in their place of residence. Since most military personnel in the US live in private quarters, often with dependents, they are counted the same way as civilians. The exceptions are those living in barracks who are counted as living in group quarters, similar to students living in dormitories.

Those who are stationed overseas (places such as Germany, Britain, Japan, Korea) and their dependents living with them are counted at their "home of record". It is not clear what state the DOD uses. Military personnel have a residence from which they enlisted, but they may also establish a different residence during their career, which they would inform the DOD. This is no different than 2010.

Those who are deployed overseas (places such as Afghanistan or Iraq) will in 2020 will be counted based on their duty station stateside. In 2010 they were counted as if they were stationed overseas. Dependents generally do not deploy overseas, so they will likely be counted where they are/were living near the duty station.

The number deployed overseas in 2020 was about 97,000.

In 2010 Census, the overseas population was just over 1 million, 96% of that military affiliated, and 60% of that dependents.

In 2020, this number may be halved.