USA 2020 Census Results Thread (Release: Today, 26 April)

[ultraviolet]

^oh I see. The table you originally linked only had resident population

[muon2]

THE TABLES !!!

https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/decennial/2020/data/apportionment/population-change-data-table.pdf

NY over 20 million !!

PA over 13 million !

I used the table in this link and I got slightly different priority values than the table in the linked tweet. Is this not the apportionment table?

https://twitter.com/greggiroux/status/1386771549038985218

I also got different numbers than the tweet. Did you get the 435th seat as 762,562.3367?

You guys are mixing up resident population with apportionment population.

Here are both next to each other:

https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/decennial/2020/data/apportionment/apportionment-2020-tableA.pdf

The apportionment population excludes DC, but includes the overseas military.

I understand the difference, but I trusted that your original link was correct. Now I see that it wasn't the link for the apportionment population.

[Tender Branson]

To use an example of my discrepancy, I see MN has a resident population of p = 5,706,494. p/7 = 815,213.43 and p/8 = 713,311.75. Multiply these and take the square root and I get 762,562.34 which isn't what was in the tweet (762,997.71). Do I have the wrong MN population or is the tweet incorrect? It would matter if NY sues of the margin by which they missed a seat.

You cannot use the resident population for these calculations. You need to use the apportionment population (see one post above).

[prag_prog]

This is important re-MN. Population growth has been pretty good over the last decade in MN in comparison to other Midwestern battleground states.

https://twitter.com/ActorAaronBooth/status/1386772821808795648

[Tender Branson]

^oh I see. The table you originally linked only had resident population

Here's the full page:

https://www.census.gov/data/tables/2020/dec/2020-apportionment-data.html

[Skill and Chance]

Of the close seats here is my opinion of the results

FL/TX Gaining only 3 instead of 5. Good for D's in EC. Probably good news for D's in the house. albiet with the Caveat is that if there was a minority undercount here it would expand any packed seats. This could hurt Fletcher as the 3 Houston packs, can expand a bit more if my assumption is true. In FL I am not sure.

AZ-not gaining, not sure. This does mean Dems now have the excuse of using least change to protect the gerrymander in outstate. The Gerrymander in Maricopa is actually a slight dummymander by now by overpacking AZ09. AZ does have a Latino population but whites are relatively liberal here so the main group is whites.
MT+1- not a surprise but wasn't a certainty. Good for Rs in the EC but the Montana supreme court rigged the commission pretty hard so good for D's in the house.

MN keeps- not super surprising. Good for D's in the EC. IMO neutral overall for the house delegation.

RI-Keeping, definitely good for D's in the EC and 98% good for D's in the house map. They might want to consider shoring up the outer seat a touch.

AL-Keeping, good for R's in the EC. Probably good for Rs in house too as I didn't expect them to try to chop the black seat

NY-1. Surprised it was that close to 27 . Not surprised by 26 exactly though. However its mostly good for D's although 26 seats is a bit awkward compared to 25 where 1 NYC/1 Upstate would be cut. With 26 seats the mean of population loss is somewhere in Delgado's/SPM's seat and the Hudson River Valley is relatively bottlenecked.

Yes, I misspoke earlier.  Texas at only 38 CDs hurts Fletcher but helps the South Texas Dems as the VRA districts all have to be bigger than expected and under VRA rules, they specifically need to use Trump-voting Hispanic areas to help Tony Gonzalez.  That could save Vicente Gonzalez's seat for Dems.

[Storr]

Illinois, Mississippi and West Virginia were the 3 states to lose population.

Minnesota had 7.6 percent population growth.

And Mississippi and Illinois only went down 0.2% and 0.1%, respectively. So they did lose population, but not that much in the grand scheme of things. West Virginia meanwhile lost 3.2% (yikes). We don't want to forget Puerto Rico which lost 11.8% of its 2010 population (mega yikes).

Note: This census gave us some wild apportionment results, but I'm happy the country simply made it to 330 million residents. Trends in the second half of the decade had me concerned we wouldn't make it to that milestone. Here's to 350 million!

[Boss_Rahm]

THE TABLES !!!

https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/decennial/2020/data/apportionment/population-change-data-table.pdf

NY over 20 million !!

PA over 13 million !

Based on these numbers NY appears to be about 3,000 people off from the last seat, not 89. Unless I'm doing the calculation wrong.

This is the resident population.

You need to use the apportionment population to calculate seats:

https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/decennial/2020/data/apportionment/apportionment-2020-table01.pdf

Thank you.

If Minnesota had counted just 26 fewer people, it would have lost a seat to New York.

[prag_prog]

Here is the population growth by each state

https://twitter.com/nickhaltermpls/status/1386769163201376258

[compucomp]

New York was 89 people away from not losing any seats?

What.

I guess when those people were declaring "I'm leaving New York!" they actually meant leaving Manhattan for Westchester or LI.

There's that, but also I think many people intended to leave NYC for 6 months or so and didn't intend to abandon it for good, hence they filled out their census information at what they considered their permanent place of residence. I still filled out the census at my apartment even though I didn't stay there all of last year. We'll find out more when the detailed city/town info comes out and it will reveal if Westchester, Long Island, and suburban NJ has unnatural looking population growth at the expense of NYC, Jersey City, and Newark.

[Tender Branson]

I updated my original first post with the most important results.

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

2020 election with 2020 reapportionment numbers:
303 D - 236 R

2016:
231 D - 307 R

2012:
329 D - 209 R

2008:
357 D - 181 R

2004:
242 D - 296 R

2000:
249 D - 289 R

1996:
364 D - 174 R

1992:
353 D - 185 R

Ignored F*ithless electors.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Minnesota really lucked out with the Census having started and a majority of people having been counted before George Floyd, since I have no doubt we've lost 89 people since then.

Also crazy to think that a single one of those newly built large luxury apartment complexes in Minneapolis that I see all the time might house enough people by itself to have saved us the district.

[Real Texan Politics]

Anyone have the first 2030 estimates? lol

No but here's my prediction.

[muon2]

^oh I see. The table you originally linked only had resident population

Here's the full page:

https://www.census.gov/data/tables/2020/dec/2020-apportionment-data.html

That page link would have been helpful to post in the first place. It's hard enough trying to enter data while listening to the news conference. As I said, I trusted that your first link was going to be correct.

[Alcibiades]

This has to be the smallest net seat gain for the Sun Belt/West in decades - possibly even over a century?

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

Anyone have the first 2030 estimates? lol

No but here's my prediction.

NJ came close to gaining a seat this census, what makes you think it will lose a seat next census?

[Real Texan Politics]

Anyone have the first 2030 estimates? lol

No but here's my prediction.

NJ came close to gaining a seat this census, what makes you think it will lose a seat next census?

I didn't even realize that many people were moving there.

Guess I'll go fix that. Sorry Utah, you're only gaining 1 vote from me instead of 2.

[Nyvin]

Anyone have the first 2030 estimates? lol

No but here's my prediction.

Alabama, Minnesota, and Wisconsin "gaining" a seat?   

Also I think you're a bit too hopeful on the Midwest in general.

[Real Texan Politics]

Anyone have the first 2030 estimates? lol

No but here's my prediction.

Alabama, Minnesota, and Wisconsin "gaining" a seat?   

Also I think you're a bit too hopeful on the Midwest in general.

If by "gaining" you mean losing then yea.

Then again a lot can happen in 10 years so who knows what'll happen. I just did this for fun.

[Storr]

Delaware is so close to 1 million people. 989,948? Uggghhhh.....

Also, shoutout to Utah for being the state with the highest percentage of population growth in a census for the first time (at 18.4%).

Edit: another random thing I noticed is that the percentage population growth from 2010-20 was 7.4%, the last time the US had population growth that low was in the 1940 Census at....7.3%. That's definitely indicative of just how much United States is aging as a society.

https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/decennial/2020/data/apportionment/population-change-data-table.pdf

[prag_prog]

Anyone have the first 2030 estimates? lol

No but here's my prediction.

Alabama, Minnesota, and Wisconsin "gaining" a seat?   

Also I think you're a bit too hopeful on the Midwest in general.

It's likely Wisconsin loses a seat and MN just retains it's 8 seats...MN is on path to overtake WI population by end of this decade

[Real Texan Politics]

Anyone have the first 2030 estimates? lol

No but here's my prediction.

Alabama, Minnesota, and Wisconsin "gaining" a seat?  

Also I think you're a bit too hopeful on the Midwest in general.

It's likely Wisconsin loses a seat and MN just retains it's 8 seats...MN is on path to overtake WI population by end of this decade

One of the reasons I took away a seat from Wisconsin, but maybe either Minnesota remains with 10 seats or grows too slow so they get a seat taken from them too.

Edit: Went back to my prediction and kept all of Minnesota's seats and Florida only gains 1 instead of 2.

[LabourJersey]

VA not having gained anything since 1990 is honestly astonishing to me.

Not that shocking.  Early 2010's austerity followed by the 1st anti-military industrial complex Republican since WWII effectively ended the NOVA population boom.

As someone who has lived in Arlington VA over a period of years I can assure you that at least in Arlington the population boom has not ended

[GeorgiaModerate]

Anyone have the first 2030 estimates? lol

No but here's my prediction.

Alabama, Minnesota, and Wisconsin "gaining" a seat?   

Also I think you're a bit too hopeful on the Midwest in general.

His map is electoral votes, not House seats.  It does show those states losing a seat each.