USA 2020 Census Results Thread (Release: Today, 26 April)

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

So who and how much did Fischbach bribe to keep her seat?

[ilikeverin]

I've known since February 2019 that I was headed to Buffalo... but this Minnesotan is delighted to have allowed his beloved tundra to keep that extra eighth seat by staying in Connecticut until last summer

[Real Texan Politics]

Anyone have the first 2030 estimates? lol

No but here's my prediction.

Alabama, Minnesota, and Wisconsin "gaining" a seat?   

Also I think you're a bit too hopeful on the Midwest in general.

His map is electoral votes, not House seats.  It does show those states losing a seat each.

And now I have Minnesota keeping all of its seats assuming it passes Wisconsin in population (and grows faster than WI or WI loses population).

[Vern]

NORTH CAROLINA UNDERPERFORMANCE: 10,439,388 (Projected to be 10,576,099)

100k people gone!

I’m calling it. NC will surpass GA in population.

I'm sorry Vern, looks like we both were wrong.

I an shock. I bet we lost more in the Mtns than I realized.

[H. Ross Peron]

Minnesota really lucked out with the Census having started and a majority of people having been counted before George Floyd, since I have no doubt we've lost 89 people since then.

From people moving out of Minneapolis?

[Real Texan Politics]

NORTH CAROLINA UNDERPERFORMANCE: 10,439,388 (Projected to be 10,576,099)

100k people gone!

I’m calling it. NC will surpass GA in population.

I'm sorry Vern, looks like we both were wrong.

I an shock. I bet we lost more in the Mtns than I realized.

Probably made up for it in Raleigh/Durham though.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Minnesota really lucked out with the Census having started and a majority of people having been counted before George Floyd, since I have no doubt we've lost 89 people since then.

From people moving out of Minneapolis?

Yes.

[Starpaul20]

I've crunched what a Wyoming Rule house size would look like in 2020:

(States in red gain 1 seat, blue gains 2 seats, green gains 3 seats, yellow gains 4 seats, brown gains 5 seats, orange gains 6 or more and gray means no change)

573 seats

[VAR]

VA not having gained anything since 1990 is honestly astonishing to me.

Not that shocking.  Early 2010's austerity followed by the 1st anti-military industrial complex Republican since WWII effectively ended the NOVA population boom.

As someone who has lived in Arlington VA over a period of years I can assure you that at least in Arlington the population boom has not ended

This. I also live in Arlington. The problem for VA is that population growth in other parts of the state is... not that great, and many counties are shrinking in population.

[Non Swing Voter]

Wait are these the actual reapportionment?  Florida only got 1 seat?  NY only lost 1?  What happened to the massive southern growth we keep hearing about?

[Oregon Eagle Politics]

Wait are these the actual reapportionment?  Florida only got 1 seat?  NY only lost 1?  What happened to the massive southern growth we keep hearing about?

If New York had 90 more people, it would not have lost any seats. Wow.

[Non Swing Voter]

Wait are these the actual reapportionment?  Florida only got 1 seat?  NY only lost 1?  What happened to the massive southern growth we keep hearing about?

If New York had 90 more people, it would not have lost any seats. Wow.

Seriously? 

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

Wait are these the actual reapportionment?  Florida only got 1 seat?  NY only lost 1?  What happened to the massive southern growth we keep hearing about?

Hispanics apparently don’t count

[Cokeland Saxton]

Anyone have the first 2030 estimates? lol

No but here's my prediction.

I don't see Tennessee gaining a seat by then at all.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

West Virginia would need to lose half its population to go from 4 to 3 seats FWIW. Losing 3% took off 60-70K people, but to get to the size of Montana it would need to lose almost 700K.

[Non Swing Voter]

this wasn't the electoral windfall Republicans were expecting.  They have to be pretty disappointed.  

[rhg2052]

States with higher 2010-2020 growth rate than 2000-2010
States whose growth rate has at least doubled since the 2010 census
North Dakota - 4.7% (2010) / 15.8% (2020)
District of Columbia - 5.2% / 14.6%
Washington - 14.1% / 14.6%
South Dakota - 7.9% / 8.9%
Nebraska - 6.7% / 7.4%
Massachusetts - 3.1% / 7.4%
New Jersey - 4.5% / 5.7%
Iowa - 4.1% / 4.7%
Rhode Island - 0.4% / 4.3%
New York - 2.1%/ 4.2%
Louisiana - 1.4% / 2.7%
Ohio - 1.6% / 2.3%
Michigan - -0.6%/ 2.0%

States with the same growth rate, 2000-2010 & 2010-2020
Vermont - 2.8% (2010) / 2.8% (2020)

States with a lower 2010-2020 growth rate than 2000-2010
States whose growth rate has been cut in half or more since the 2010 census
Utah - 23.8% (2010) / 18.4% (2020)
Idaho - 21.1% / 17.3%
Texas - 20.6% / 15.9%
Nevada - 35.1% / 15.0%
Colorado - 16.9% / 14.8%
Florida - 17.6% / 14.6%
Arizona - 24.6% / 11.9%
South Carolina - 15.3% / 10.7%
Oregon - 12.0% / 10.6%
Georgia - 18.3% / 10.6%
Delaware - 14.6% / 10.2%
Montana - 9.7% / 9.6%
North Carolina - 18.5% / 9.5%
Tennessee - 11.5% / 8.9%
Virginia - 13.0% / 7.9%
Minnesota - 7.8% / 7.6%
Hawaii - 12.3% / 7.0%
Maryland - 9.0% / 7.0%
California - 10.0% / 6.1%
Oklahoma - 8.7% / 5.5%
Alabama - 7.5% / 5.1%
Indiana - 6.6% / 4.7%
New Hampshire - 6.5% / 4.6%
Kentucky - 7.4% / 3.8%
Wisconsin - 6.0% / 3.6%
Alaska - 13.3% / 3.3%
Arkansas - 9.1% / 3.3%
Kansas - 6.1% / 3.0%
New Mexico - 13.2% / 2.8%
Missouri - 7.0% / 2.8%
Maine - 4.2% / 2.6%
Pennsylvania - 3.4% / 2.4%
Wyoming - 14.1% / 2.3%
Connecticut - 4.9% / 0.9%
Illinois - 3.3% / -0.1%
Mississippi - 4.3% / -0.2%
West Virginia - 2.5% / -3.2%
Puerto Rico - -2.2% / -11.8%

[Real Texan Politics]

Anyone have the first 2030 estimates? lol

No but here's my prediction.

I don't see Tennessee gaining a seat by then at all.

Haven't gained a seat since 1980, but I'm pretty sure Nashville's grown quite a bit since then?

Not to mention TN has grown by at least 2 million since 1980, and should definitely cross 7 million in total population by 2030.

[Storr]

I've crunched what a Wyoming Rule house size would look like in 2020:

(States in red gain 1 seat, blue gains 2 seats, green gains 3 seats, yellow gains 4 seats, brown gains 5 seats, orange gains 6 or more and gray means no change)

573 seats

That's up from 547 in 2010. California at 69 seats. Nice.  

[Non Swing Voter]

Also, what happened to Arizona?  Thought it was certain to gain a seat.  And I also thought Rhode Island was certain to lose a seat.  Seems like the predictions were way way off this year.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Just four states are responsible for 50% of all 2010-2020 population growth:
Texas: +3,999,944
Florida: +2,736,877
California: +2,284,267
Georgia: +1,024,255

Seven more bring it past 75%:
Washington: +980,741
North Carolina: +903,905
New York: +823,147
Arizona: +759,485
Colorado: +744,518
Virginia: +630,369
Tennessee: +564,735

[Real Texan Politics]

Also any idea when we'll be getting results for the biggest cities in the country? I wonder if the city of Austin's population has crossed 1 million.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

NORTH CAROLINA UNDERPERFORMANCE: 10,439,388 (Projected to be 10,576,099)

100k people gone!

I’m calling it. NC will surpass GA in population.

I'm sorry Vern, looks like we both were wrong.

I an shock. I bet we lost more in the Mtns than I realized.

I doubt it. Seems like Charlotte and the Triangle are just growing a couple points slower than Atlanta.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

Ten largest states, ranked (change since 2010)

1. california
2. texas
3. florida (+1)
4. new york (-1)
5. pennsylvania (+1)
6. illinois (-1)
7. ohio
8. georgia (+1)
9. north carolina (+1)
10. michigan (-2)

Bottom ten

50. wyoming
49. vermont
48. alaska (-1)
47. north dakota (+1)
46. south dakota
45. delaware
44. montana
43. rhode island
42. maine (-1)
41. new hampshire (+1)
40. hawaii

DC would be 49/51, up from 50/51

New to the one million club
Montana (1.08 mil)
next up: Delaware (10K away)

New to the ten million club
Georgia (10.7mil)
North Carolina (10.5mil)
Michigan (10.1mil)
next up: New Jersey (800k away)

edit: didn't realize the 2020 census wiki page had been updated (not sure why I'm surprised though)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_United_States_census

Other changes I see:

AZ and MA switch places for 14th
TN and IN switch places for 16th
MD and MO switch places for 18th
CO and MN switch places for 21st
SC and AL switch places for 23rd
UT and IA switch places for 30th
NV jumps from 32 to 36
AR jumps MS for 33rd
ID and WV switch places for 38th

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1386763478657114118