USA 2020 Census Results Thread (Release: Today, 26 April)

[Tender Branson]

AZ and HI had the biggest misses in 2010 relative to the estimates before the Census:

AZ's population as counted was 4.6% smaller than what was estimated.

HI's counted population on the other hand was 4.3% higher than estimated.



https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2011/01/12/state-population-estimates-and-census-2010-counts-did-they-match

...

The major difference between the mid-2009 estimates and 2010 census results and today is that we got actual mid-2020 projections for the states this time, not just mid-2019 ones.

So, it will be easier to compare the April 1, 2020 Census counts with the July 1, 2020 estimates (you only need to shave off a few thousand to ten thousand people in each state).

https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/tables/2010-2020/state/totals/nst-est2020.xlsx

[Tender Branson]

For the first time ever, military members (stationed abroad) were counted in their current/last base of deployment on the mainland - not where they privately live:

https://www.npr.org/2021/04/22/989938913/potential-changes-from-census-changing-how-it-counted-deployed-u-s-troops-in-202

This will boost states with a lot/big military bases.

You have garbled some things.

Military personnel have a duty station. This may be either in the United States or overseas. They may also be deployed for a shorter time to some other location.

US military who are stationed in the United States are counted in their place of residence. Since most military personnel in the US live in private quarters, often with dependents, they are counted the same way as civilians. The exceptions are those living in barracks who are counted as living in group quarters, similar to students living in dormitories.

Those who are stationed overseas (places such as Germany, Britain, Japan, Korea) and their dependents living with them are counted at their "home of record". It is not clear what state the DOD uses. Military personnel have a residence from which they enlisted, but they may also establish a different residence during their career, which they would inform the DOD. This is no different than 2010.

Those who are deployed overseas (places such as Afghanistan or Iraq) will in 2020 will be counted based on their duty station stateside. In 2010 they were counted as if they were stationed overseas. Dependents generally do not deploy overseas, so they will likely be counted where they are/were living near the duty station.

The number deployed overseas in 2020 was about 97,000.

In 2010 Census, the overseas population was just over 1 million, 96% of that military affiliated, and 60% of that dependents.

In 2020, this number may be halved.

If it indeed was halved, the 0.5 million extra population went from the apportionment population to the resident population.

Which states would benefit most if military members/their families went back from overseas to their home states ?

Or is it pretty uniform ?

[Tender Branson]

Also, let's remember that there may be up to 20 million illegals in the US (many of which were not counted).

And there are 5-10 million American citizens living abroad, who were not counted, because they have their main residence abroad.

So, depending on what you want to add to the apportionment/residency tally that the CB will release on Friday, you can add an additional 15-30 million people to that ...

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

snip

why did AZ and HI miss by so much?

[Tender Branson]

snip

why did AZ and HI miss by so much?

Possible Causes of Arizona’s Census Count Being Lower Than Estimated

Several factors may have caused Arizona’s census count to be lower than estimated. First, population growth during the real estate boom in the mid-2000s may have been overestimated. A higher-than-normal proportion of the buyers of new homes appear to have never moved into the house or to have occupied it only on a seasonal basis. (Seasonal residents are counted only once in the census, at their primary residence.)

Second, the severity of the recent recession in Arizona could have caused net migration between Arizona and other states to be lower than estimated. However, the Census Bureau’s estimates include a reduction in net domestic in-migration to near zero in the year ending June 30, 2009.

Third, the recession may have caused net immigration with other countries to be lower than estimated. Immigration is the weakest part of the population estimates since so little information on the number of undocumented immigrants is available. Unlike net domestic migration, the Census Bureau’s estimates of net immigration display little downward trend in recent years, despite the unavailability of jobs during to the deep recession.

Each of these factors may have contributed to Arizona’s lower-than-estimated census count.

However, each of these factors is equally applicable in Nevada, which also experienced an unprecedented housing boom in the mid-2000s followed by a recession far more severe than the national average. Thus, these factors do not explain why Arizona’s census count is so much lower than the estimate relative to Nevada and other neighboring states or why Arizona’s differential between the census count and the estimate is the largest in the nation.

One factor does distinguish Arizona from Nevada and other neighboring states: Arizona’s legislation intended to deter undocumented immigrants from living in the state. Arizona passed the nation’s first statewide employer sanctions law, effective at the beginning of 2008. It appears to have caused many undocumented immigrants to leave Arizona, based on the subsequent sharp and disproportionate decrease in the number of births to Hispanics reported by the Arizona Department of Health Services. More recently, Senate Bill 1070—whose purpose is “to discourage and deter the unlawful entry and presence of aliens and economic activity by persons unlawfully present in the United States”—was passed. This legislation received considerable publicity prior to the April 1, 2010 census date and became law shortly thereafter—before the Census Bureau began decennial census follow-up activities.

While these laws likely caused some undocumented immigrants to leave Arizona, they may have had an additional effect, prompting a disproportionate number of undocumented immigrants living in Arizona to refuse to be counted in the census. To the extent that a differential undercount of Arizona’s population occurred, Arizona will lose considerable federal funding over the next 10 years since a substantial share of federal funding is determined by the state’s share of the national decennial census count.

As more detailed data from the decennial census are released, some additional insight may be gleaned into the causes of Arizona’s lower-than-estimated census count. A deep examination of data from the American Community Survey also may help provide understanding, but the survey error is a limiting factor. Ultimately, the annual pattern of population growth in Arizona during the 2000s will never be known with certainty. Similarly, the effects of legislation aimed at undocumented immigrants versus the economic effects of the deep and long recession on the outflow of undocumented immigrants from Arizona will never be fully disentangled. It is likely that both factors contributed to the decisions made by some undocumented workers to leave the state.

https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/79562415.pdf

[Tender Branson]

snip

why did AZ and HI miss by so much?

I don’t know why HI was to the opposite of AZ, having a much higher counted population than what the estimates predicted.

Maybe because of the opposite to the AZ recession situation:

a lot of wealthier people at the time of the 2010 Census spending time in their second vacation homes there and filling out the form from there ?

Or maybe HI had a better economy/labour market than the mainland US in early 2010 attracting more immigrants from the mainland ?

Or in-migration from the mainland/internationally was underestimated between 2000-2010 ?

[cinyc]

The newest Twitter rumor is that the apportionment count will be out Monday afternoon:

https://twitter.com/SamWangPhD/status/1385939017619943427

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

The newest Twitter rumor is that the apportionment count will be out Monday afternoon:

https://twitter.com/SamWangPhD/status/1385939017619943427

Twitter rumor, I know, but would be nice if this panned out.

[jimrtex]

For the first time ever, military members (stationed abroad) were counted in their current/last base of deployment on the mainland - not where they privately live:

https://www.npr.org/2021/04/22/989938913/potential-changes-from-census-changing-how-it-counted-deployed-u-s-troops-in-202

This will boost states with a lot/big military bases.

You have garbled some things.

Military personnel have a duty station. This may be either in the United States or overseas. They may also be deployed for a shorter time to some other location.

US military who are stationed in the United States are counted in their place of residence. Since most military personnel in the US live in private quarters, often with dependents, they are counted the same way as civilians. The exceptions are those living in barracks who are counted as living in group quarters, similar to students living in dormitories.

Those who are stationed overseas (places such as Germany, Britain, Japan, Korea) and their dependents living with them are counted at their "home of record". It is not clear what state the DOD uses. Military personnel have a residence from which they enlisted, but they may also establish a different residence during their career, which they would inform the DOD. This is no different than 2010.

Those who are deployed overseas (places such as Afghanistan or Iraq) will in 2020 will be counted based on their duty station stateside. In 2010 they were counted as if they were stationed overseas. Dependents generally do not deploy overseas, so they will likely be counted where they are/were living near the duty station.

The number deployed overseas in 2020 was about 97,000.

In 2010 Census, the overseas population was just over 1 million, 96% of that military affiliated, and 60% of that dependents.

In 2020, this number may be halved.

If it indeed was halved, the 0.5 million extra population went from the apportionment population to the resident population.

Which states would benefit most if military members/their families went back from overseas to their home states ?

Or is it pretty uniform ?

Some of it is due to reduction in the overall size of the military. There is probably a bias towards southern states with military bases, especially for those with long service, who met their spouse while serving. They may have developed connections to those states, especially if they have children. But that movement from military to civilian should already be factored in to the population estimates.

Those stationed overseas will apparently be treated the same as in 2010. The Census includes dependents living with the service members overseas. These persons may be attributed to the wrong state, and in particular a different state than where they vote. That is because the DOD keeps records of where the service member was living when they enlisted.

If they were previously stationed in the US prior to the transfer to Germany, etc., they would have been recorded where they were stationed but for the transfer to the foreign duty station. That is, they were living in North Carolina towards the end of March 2020, and transferred to Germany in early April 2021. They might be attributed to North Carolina, New York, or Germany based on the transfer date.

The change in the deployment rules will have the most net effect on those states that had deployments in 2010.

[bagelman]

I'm pretty confident that it's going to be the 30th. Always gotta drag their feet for no particular reason.

[cinyc]

I'm pretty confident that it's going to be the 30th. Always gotta drag their feet for no particular reason.

Maybe. We don't have any official date or time yet from Census, despite the Twitter rumors.

[bagelman]

I'm pretty confident that it's going to be the 30th. Always gotta drag their feet for no particular reason.

Maybe. We don't have any official date or time yet from Census, despite the Twitter rumors.

Unless you think it could be later than April 30th, this is a rather meaningless comment. Of course I don't know that it's on the 30th, but that's what my gut feeling has been for a while now ever since they gave that as their deadline. I'll be pleasantly surprised if it's anytime earlier.

[cinyc]

I'm pretty confident that it's going to be the 30th. Always gotta drag their feet for no particular reason.

Maybe. We don't have any official date or time yet from Census, despite the Twitter rumors.

Unless you think it could be later than April 30th, this is a rather meaningless comment. Of course I don't know that it's on the 30th, but that's what my gut feeling has been for a while now ever since they gave that as their deadline. I'll be pleasantly surprised if it's anytime earlier.

That was not a meaningless comment. It was a comment on the current state of what is.

I'd usually trust Sam Wang (who is plugged into census things) over your or my gut any day, but Census' failure to give us a date on Friday when someone said they were going to do so on a conference call doesn't give me much confidence in anything unless it's directly out of Census' mouth.

[Biden his time]

FIRST APPORTIONMENT COUNTS TO BE RELEASED AT 3 PM EASTERN TODAY!

https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2021/2020-census-apportionment-news-conference.html

https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2021/04/first-2020-census-population-counts-will-soon-be-released.html

I knew subscribing to the email list would pay off one day.

[Tender Branson]

Just got an Email that the results are out today at 21.00 MEZ (3pm Eastern).

[Skye]

Board the Hype train bois let's gooo

CHOO CHOOOO
🚂

[Biden his time]

Link to live event:

All of the armchair demographers waiting to input the results of the census into pre-arranged spreadsheets:



Image Link

[Pink Panther]

Finally one time the Census Bureau doesn't wait until the latest possible time.

[Roll Roons]

So I guess the biggest question is Alabama's 7th vs New York's 26th. Any other possible surprises to look out for?

[Brittain33]

So I guess the biggest question is Alabama's 7th vs New York's 26th. Any other possible surprises to look out for?

Given COVID and Trump's management, we should all prepare for the possibility of significant surprises.

[Skill and Chance]

So I guess the biggest question is Alabama's 7th vs New York's 26th. Any other possible surprises to look out for?

MN holding on to its 8th district is an underrated surprise scenario IMO.  Civic engagement is super high there, and 2020 was a year when people had to go out of their way more than usual to get counted.   

[Tender Branson]

Last-minute prediction:

One or a few states will throw a tantrum because their populations will be far off (=lower) than the estimates ...

[Non Swing Voter]

Last-minute prediction:

One or a few states will throw a tantrum because their populations will be far off (=lower) than the estimates ...

name the states

[Skill and Chance]

Also, I think there's an underrated possibility that the oil crash plus lack of state interest/investment in supporting the count keeps Texas at +2 instead of +3.

[Tender Branson]

Last-minute prediction:

One or a few states will throw a tantrum because their populations will be far off (=lower) than the estimates ...

name the states

Mostly the large states I would say, or those who miss a seat by a small margin.

But it’s also possible that there could be an overcount (more people were at home last year) and therefore the smaller states would tend to lose out more vs. the bigger states ...