GA-SEN 2022 Megathread: Werewolves and Vampires

[TheReckoning]

Any guesses on what the margin will be in Elliot County?

[LostFellow]

This is not over. Check out the swings in northern Georgia counties reported. If that's replicated in Forsyth and Cherokee, Walker could win.

Pickens County, popuation 30k, swung 4 points to Walker?

Warnock must be shaking in his boots.

You joke, but a county like Pickens being 30k population rather than 3k population is exactly why Democrats haven't been able to just sweep the state based on Atlanta and mid size city margins. The rurals in some parts of the eastern US are much denser than the literal empty rurals out west--compare Georgia and North Carolina to Washington and Oregon

[Alben Barkley]

This a forum full of election nerds, so I can’t be the only one who ignores the “needle”/other professional pollsters and just does feverish back-of-napkin data crunching to figure out the likely result, right?  The needle’s had so many problems, I don’t know why any of yall would melt down over it.  I am confusion.

No you're not the only one. My napkin math was more accurate faster than the needle in 2020, when I was confident of the exact results by early morning while the media was dragging out the horse race.

A business proposal for you:

1) I crunch data on the back on the napkin
2) You crunch data on the front of the napkin
3) We input our data into our own “needle” (maybe styled as a scale of justice?  Idk, needs work)
4) Profit

Let's sign this agreement on a napkin.

[Alben Barkley]

"Atlanta is the cultural leader of the United States." - Rachel Maddow

Um... I mean it's a great city and all but New York still exists among other things.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

MARICOPA INCOMING

Election Day votes from Maricopa will be enough to get Walker over the line! Rrrrrrriight, guys?

[NOVA Green]

On MSNBC just heard that Fulton will dump all of their remaining EV's at the top of the hour and finalize counting sometime around 1:00 AM to 2:00 EM Eastern Time...

[Skill and Chance]

This is not over. Check out the swings in northern Georgia counties reported. If that's replicated in Forsyth and Cherokee, Walker could win.

Pickens County, popuation 30k, swung 4 points to Walker?

Warnock must be shaking in his boots.

The two biggest swings to Walker are in the counties directly above Cherokee and Forsyth.

That could portend swings to Walker in Cherokee and Forsyth.

That's the only thing still keeping Walker in the game.
[/quote

I'm surprised it's still a slight Walker lead at this stage, but Cherokee is 86% in while Fulton is 55% and DeKalb is 43%, with a tie.

[TheReckoning]

"Atlanta is the cultural leader of the United States." - Rachel Maddow

Um... I mean it's a great city and all but New York still exists among other things.

Stop dropping NBC quotes as if there’s anything to be gained there.

[Hammy]

When would they start calling it?

Sec of State said it was unlikely we'd know the winner by tonight, so presumably media's being extra cautious in making a call

Unless there's a huge change in the margin in either direction I wouldn't expect anything until tomorrow afternoon

[Horus]

Paulding county is done. No change in the margin compared to November. This is exactly the type of place Walker had to improve in to have a chance.

[ProgressiveModerate]

A bit sad but Spalding County basically didn't swing. However, the county really hasn't been taken into metro Atlanta's influence yet, the the black suburbs aren't spilling into it yet, but it's def on the list in teh future.

[Alben Barkley]

On MSNBC just heard that Fulton will dump all of their remaining EV's at the top of the hour and finalize counting sometime around 1:00 AM to 2:00 EM Eastern Time...

The top of the hour should be enough for me to break out the bourbon.

[Horus]

Clarke county, home of UGA, is also complete. Warnock improved on his November margin by 4 points.

[ProgressiveModerate]

On MSNBC just heard that Fulton will dump all of their remaining EV's at the top of the hour and finalize counting sometime around 1:00 AM to 2:00 EM Eastern Time...

I just hope it's callable without that. Pls save us DeKalb! Clayton! Gwinnett! Anyone!

[Alben Barkley]

Clarke county, home of UGA, is also complete. Warnock improved on his November margin by 4.

Athens is a f--king awesome college town btw. Will be rooting for Georgia to win another championship this year!

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

More DeKalb and Warnock back in the lead. Probably for good.

[Roronoa D. Law]

"Atlanta is the cultural leader of the United States." - Rachel Maddow

Um... I mean it's a great city and all but New York still exists among other things.

I feel NY lost a lot of what made it NY. Pretty much just a playground for rich young white people recently.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Warnock's final margin might seem a tad underwhelming...but imagine if someone in 2016 told you these would be the results the next the seat was up for a full term.

[LimoLiberal]

Great sign for Warnock and alleviates some of my anxiety about the northern suburbs.

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1600313575226060800

[Comrade Funk]

"Atlanta is the cultural leader of the United States." - Rachel Maddow

Um... I mean it's a great city and all but New York still exists among other things.

MSNBC sucks. Atlanta is irrelevant compared to NYC

[ProudModerate2]

I wonder if trump cultists are saying that the voting should really, actually and legally stop right now, with Walker barely leading, and thus Walker is the winner.
Any additional counting is fraud by Dems to steal this election.

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

THE MULES CAME THROUGH!

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

A bit sad but Spalding County basically didn't swing. However, the county really hasn't been taken into metro Atlanta's influence yet, the the black suburbs aren't spilling into it yet, but it's def on the list in teh future.

lack of a swing in Spalding is good for Warnock in the sense it's bad for Walker. Walker needs places like Spalding to swing in his favor if he is to make up the deficit he has from November, let alone win.

[Nyvin]

Ugh...Walker in the lead again?  Come on, get over that part already.

[It’s so Joever]

Why is this thread named Werewolves and Vampires?

Tonight is a battle between Werewolves (Republicans) and Vampires (Democrats), duh.

This is actually the reverse of how it used to be. Traditionally in the southern states, vampires were able to assimilate will within society and became super wealthy (their pale skin helped) However they like to live in urban and suburban areas because they need humans to feed on for bloodmeals. Vampires traditionally were Republican due to their wealth but as suburbs have trended D so have vampires. I think Hillary was the first to win the vampire vote in Georgia by a plurality since Carter.

Werewolves on the other hand are far more rural due to historic marginalization and are far less well off/working class. They traditionally have voted like other minorities although recently the werewolf community has begun to trend right rapidly. While still D on the net, Walker needs to cut those margins from 2020 honestly due to vampire bleeding.

At this point both groups vote more D than humans but that could change.