GA-SEN 2022 Megathread: Werewolves and Vampires

[Roll Roons]

The George Allen of Georgia.

[Roll Roons]

The George Allen of Georgia.

I was thinking the Martha McSally of Georgia but that works too.

McSally doesn't really work because at least Perdue won a Senate election on his own. I was thinking Allen because both him and Perdue lost narrowly after making insulting comments about South Asians.

[Roll Roons]

MTG will not run.

She’d be severely DOA if she did. Probably for the best.

As for the GE, yup. Not in a GOP primary. She'd very likely be favored in latter.

It really takes a lot more than being a crazy person to win a GOP primary.The problem for Greene isn’t really her beliefs per se, it’s that she has no real appeal to the R base other than being a “slightly” crazy lady who loves Trump. She will coast to victory in GA-14, but that’s only because she’s the incumbent.

Would she defeat a Never Trumper? Yes, there’s absolutely no doubts about that. But I don’t get why she would even come close to winning against a generic Trumpist, i.e. Collins, Walker, etc.

Nevada 2010
Wisconsin 2010
Delaware 2010
Indiana 2012
Maryland 2012
Missouri 2012
Texas 2012
Arizona 2018
Arizona 2020
Alabama 2020
Delaware 2020

you don't HAVE to, but trust me it helps

McSally was the moderate option in 2018 against Kelli Ward and Joe Arpaio, and she was running as an incumbent in 2020. Oregon 2020 might be a better example.

[Roll Roons]

Warnock and Ossoff are both popular in GA, according to new AJC poll.

Favorabilities:
Jon Ossoff: 48/40 (+8)
Raphael Warnock: 48/41 (+7)
Joe Biden: 50/46 (+4)
Stacey Abrams: 48/45 (+3)
Brian Kemp: 44/47 (-3)
Donald Trump: 45/50 (-5)

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1IbJP58EcsG2W_L-A6gnb81blnIhfAFoP/view

Polling, you say? Are we still playing this game?

Polls were actually decent in Georgia.

[Roll Roons]

Does anybody remember when Fred Thompson was gonna be President or Lynn Swann was gonna be PA Gov.

This feels like that.

I don't think anyone actually thought Swann had a serious chance of winning.

[Roll Roons]

Silly as it may sound, will UGA winning the national championship be a boost to Walker's chances?

[Roll Roons]

I gotta say, it feels like in pretty much every key Senate race, GOP recruits have been from meh to downright awful, and if they lose any of these races it'd be quite embarrasing.

This is the problem when you run somebody just because you think they're a cool football player when they know nothing about policy.

I was told candidate quality doesn't matter, the only thing that matters is it is a Democratic midterm.

It's true that no incumbent Democratic Senators are DOA like Jones or Gardner were. But as someone who thinks candidate quality absolutely matters, I recognize that it's always possible for mediocre/poor challengers to win on the strength of a wave. None of them are Todd Akin-level disasters (yet). 

[Roll Roons]

Anecdotally I am hearing a disheartening amount of Kemp-curiousness from suburbanites who are grateful that he "stood up to Trump" but should know better, but an encouraging amount of people uncomfortable with electing some unhinged football player. I think there might be a wider gulf between GOV and SEN than I initially thought. Voters have the memory of goldfish .

Got me wondering - who would be an Abrams/Walker voter?

[Roll Roons]

Dear God. This may be the worst crop of Senate candidates one party has fielded... ever.

[Roll Roons]

This may be the genuinely saddest story that's come out of a political campaign in God knows how long.

[Roll Roons]

Early vote numbers for the 1st day Georgia senate runoff

https://www.georgiavotes.com/

15,829 have voted. Don't think much can be inferred yet.

I don't think we can infer much from early voting numbers, period.

[Roll Roons]

At least Herschel conceded.

[Roll Roons]

"Believe in our Constitution. Believe in our elected officials most of all." - Herschel Walker

So the trend continues of every Republican not named Donald Trump and not in the state of Arizona being a relatively gracious loser.

He did also say “the numbers don’t add up” before quickly moving on.

I think what he meant was that his team knew the math wouldn't work out in his favor.

[Roll Roons]

Ah Tim Scott, the only non-Murkowski Republican running for Senate this year whom Atlas endorsed.

I imagine the streak continues in 2024 because I envision Romney getting the Atlas endorsement. And if Menendez and Sinema win their primaries I can see them being snubbed.

Not if the AZ GOP nominates some far-right lunatic, and given what happened this year...

Frankly, that's why I'm not so sure that Sinema is DOA in the primary or that she has no chance if she makes it to the general. Arizona Democrats are not going to let Kelli Ward or Wendy Rogers go to the Senate.