Florida 2022 Megathread

[Calthrina950]

I don’t think anyone here aside from OC thinks DeSantis is gonna lose anyways.

I think it's pretty obvious at this point that Hurricane Ian is helping DeSantis politically. Even Biden praised him for how he responded to the hurricane. The only question now is whether or not DeSantis wins by double digits.

I'm confident that in pure number terms Ian is going to be a net negative for DeSantis. There's zero chance Lee and Collier Counties are back to fully normal turnout by next month and both previously provided fairly hefty vote margins to DeSantis. His handling of the hurricane, at least from what I've seen and heard, hasn't been particularly noteworthy one way or another. I doubt it wins over many people.

You believe then, that Crist is going to keep the margin to single digits and that he will come closer than previously anticipated?

[2016]

I don’t think anyone here aside from OC thinks DeSantis is gonna lose anyways.

I think it's pretty obvious at this point that Hurricane Ian is helping DeSantis politically. Even Biden praised him for how he responded to the hurricane. The only question now is whether or not DeSantis wins by double digits.

I'm confident that in pure number terms Ian is going to be a net negative for DeSantis. There's zero chance Lee and Collier Counties are back to fully normal turnout by next month and both previously provided fairly hefty vote margins to DeSantis. His handling of the hurricane, at least from what I've seen and heard, hasn't been particularly noteworthy one way or another. I doubt it wins over many people.

I disagree. Look at the abysmal VBM Numbers from Broward, Hillsborough and other Counties. I know it's early but 81K D to 79 R is not good.
Democrats are going to get clobbered with the Early In-Person Voting and on E-Day.
D's still have time to pad a more significant early vote lead with the VBM Vote but in the early going it's not looking good.
https://countyballotfiles.floridados.gov/VoteByMailEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats
Florida is not going to have a 65 % Turnout like it had in the 2018 Record Midterm.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We don't need FL anyways, just remember Rs we're plus 6 on GCB on Eday 2010/14 the Rs we're the ones that built up expectations that they will get a 245 H and 54 Senate ifs gonna be a neutral cycle in the Senate at best Evers is leading in WI I don't believe that discrepancy between Barnes and Evers Walker and Kleefisch we're favored even in 2018 and Barnes and Evers barely beat them


I don't take polls literally like other users Molinaro was Plus 8 in blue states NY and lost by 3 even Johnson whom is tied on RV screen and lead by 6 can lose if Molinaro did in blue state WI just like Laxalt is losing now after multiple polls have him up but I am bullish weren't not gonna win GOV race in OH Ryan and Beasley and McMULLIN can win too

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rachel Maddow says it's a 51/44 Senate D controlled Sen and  WI, PA net pickups GA runoff and OH and NC and UT  as Tossups now eliminating FL but of course since FL is the first states up I have it D as well as LA because Runoff with Mixon and with Kennedy will get very interesting if it goes to one but Rachel Maddow says as of now it's 51/44

[EastwoodS]

Olawankandi having a keyboard seizure, probably why all his post come out sounding like word sewage.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Olawankandi having a keyboard seizure, probably why all his post come out sounding like word sewage.

Your Rs haven't won an Eday since 2016 and Russia helped Trump and he didn't win the PVI and the last time Rs won the PVI was 2014, you want to try again, you guys lost the PVI 80)75 M in 2020 when the Rs win the PVI give me or ring or else I will post D nut maps, lol that had Grassley and Reynolds up by 15 and Grassley is only up 5

[Tekken_Guy]

I don’t think anyone here aside from OC thinks DeSantis is gonna lose anyways.

I think it's pretty obvious at this point that Hurricane Ian is helping DeSantis politically. Even Biden praised him for how he responded to the hurricane. The only question now is whether or not DeSantis wins by double digits.

I'm confident that in pure number terms Ian is going to be a net negative for DeSantis. There's zero chance Lee and Collier Counties are back to fully normal turnout by next month and both previously provided fairly hefty vote margins to DeSantis. His handling of the hurricane, at least from what I've seen and heard, hasn't been particularly noteworthy one way or another. I doubt it wins over many people.

The panhandle still showed up after being wrecked by Michael four years ago.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Treasury Department is examining Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’ migrant transports and whether the Republican governor improperly used money connected to Covid-19 aid to facilitate the flights.

The agency’s inspector general’s office confirmed to several members of Massachusetts’s Democratic congressional delegation that it planned “to get this work underway as soon as possible” to probe Florida’s spending as part of ongoing audits into how states have used the billions in sent to them as part of the American Rescue Plan, according to a letter provided by Democratic Massachusetts Sen. Ed Markey’s office.

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/10/12/desantis-migrant-flights-markey-00061370

[EastwoodS]

Olawankandi having a keyboard seizure, probably why all his post come out sounding like word sewage.

Your Rs haven't won an Eday since 2016 and Russia helped Trump and he didn't win the PVI and the last time Rs won the PVI was 2014, you want to try again, you guys lost the PVI 80)75 M in 2020 when the Rs win the PVI give me or ring or else I will post D nut maps, lol that had Grassley and Reynolds up by 15 and Grassley is only up 5

Exactly

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/aaronparseghian/status/1580543750522093568

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Olawankandi having a keyboard seizure, probably why all his post come out sounding like word sewage.

Your Rs haven't won an Eday since 2016 and Russia helped Trump and he didn't win the PVI and the last time Rs won the PVI was 2014, you want to try again, you guys lost the PVI 80)75 M in 2020 when the Rs win the PVI give me or ring or else I will post D nut maps, lol that had Grassley and Reynolds up by 15 and Grassley is only up 5

Exactly

Exactly what you guys are LOOSING

[HidingCommentary]

Not sure it's going to make a difference but DeSantis and his administration are getting some heavy criticism over the delay in evacuating Lee County. A lot of death could have been avoided had they not waited the day before the landfall of Ian to evacuate.

Also not really anything but DeSantis has been wearing his campaign merch to tour destroyed areas and hand out food. Pretty distasteful in my opinion, not sure anybody cares though.

I disagree.  The media reports that DeSantis is receiving 'heavy criticism' is almost entirely a left-wing smear campaign by left-wing members and influencers within the national media as opposed to genuine public discourse in Florida.  The claim doesn't even hold up on a national level, because even an Economist National Poll of Adults indicates that a plurality of Democrats approve of DeSantis' Hurricane Ian response (43%) while 27% are not sure and 30% Disapprove.  It's ridiculous to even address the claims that 'no one cares' about DeSantis' bad response , because not even Democrats believe the presupposition that DeSantis has made a mistake. 
https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/10/05/hurricane-ian-economist-yougov-poll-october-2022?utm_medium=organic_social&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=SM-2022-10-US-B2C-Weather

I think most people are sickened by the claims by Democrats insinuating that DeSantis is responsible for more deaths cause he didn't act quickly to evacuate Fort Myers. The reality most people observed for themselves was DeSantis providing early warning to evacuate and quickly restoring services to communities despite the stronger than expected impacts.  The reality for most people like me who were awake for 36-48 hours straight during Ian's approach was that the NHC and National News Programs were completely wrong when they disregarded the atmospheric trends that could shift the track way further south into Monroe, and put both Dade and Broward into Major Hurricane conditions.  There was clearly some upper level dynamics depicting a shortwave trough slowly moving towards the Peninsula in concert with a Southeasternly displaced upper level ridge (200-300Mbs) shearing, shifting, shunting, speeding, and dislocating the Ian's vortex and its thunderstorms further east along two distinct transient frontal boundaries (tropical and sub-tropical) despite lower level 700-925Mb pushing the system further north.   

"While watching the Weather Channel discuss how Hurricane Ian would hit Tampa Bay, they switched the feed to an ongoing press conference with Gov. Ron DeSantis. During the press conference, DeSantis made a bold statement which caught the Weather Channel off guard. He said Hurricane Ian may turn and track farther south like Charlie did in 2004.

Even though the spaghetti models had Ian going farther north and south, DeSantis specifically said farther south.  He no doubt said this because he had access to the European weather model output — which all along had shown forecast tracks farther south — even down to Fort Myers. Up until this time, the official forecast was farther north — closer to the statistically less accurate GFS (American) model.

Then, once the TV feed returned back to the Weather Channel studio, you could see they initially didn’t quite know how to follow up on DeSantis’ comment. Of course they knew DeSantis was right, because they also had access to the Euro model output.  Weather Channel forecasters immediately acknowledged DeSantis’ comment and began discussing the Euro model output in earnest. Soon afterwards, the official Hurricane Ian forecast tracks steadily moved southward toward Fort Myers.

DeSantis helped save lives with his public forewarning of Ian’s more southerly track."
https://www.villages-news.com/2022/10/06/desantis-got-it-right-on-hurricane-ian/

So DeSantis was one of the earliest and most outspoken public officials that was warning people to evacuate Fort Myers, but many people didn't listen due to the NHC-Weather Channel graphics and messaging that focused on a Pensacola to Tampa Bay Landfall.   

Why did people die? . The affects of an extremely major hurricane (with extraordinary vertical shear thanks to undisturbed bath water in the W Caribbean and SE Gulf) entering a moderate horizontal shear environment accentuated the impacts on the east side of the storm, and served as a short-term mechanism that increased vorticity (circulation/spin) as well as the strength and expansiveness of the Eastern-displaced convection (Category 4-5) that hit SW Florida.  The impact of mid-upper-level troughs and shortwaves (kinks in jet stream ahead of main trough, or pseudo troughs)  on Major Hurricanes is a less researched phenomenon of Hurricanes that models and meteorologists cannot accurately forecast.  In Northern Hemisphere, these conditions normally shift tracks and impacts further East and NE, rapidly strengthen systems and/or expand wind fields while increasing tornadic activity on the dirty sides of the storms (Think Sandy pivoting West along Negatively tilted winter trough), and increase the timing of impacts and landfalls due to upper level jets before the storm rapidly weakens when the winds blow thunderstorms (vertical Shear) away from core (vertical shear needed to intensify storms).   This is impossible to forecast during October.

Check out this meteorological forum that includes meteorologists talking about the storm (and also has a very rowdy political thread that members must request moderators in order to gain access lol).  We discussed landfalls anywhere from the east coast for Florida to Mississippi, and maps of the upper level environment are depicted.  The warnings to evacuate were ordered, but people didn't follow them.  Emergency Management in those counties didn't know whether evacuation was necessary, because their was uncertainty in the forecast.  Even the Democrat politicians in some of these counties refused to organize a mandatory evacuation, but most of these politicians aren't throwing anyone under the bus like we see Democrats doing at the Federal Level.  DeSantis isn't blaming anyone cause these situations are tricky. https://southernwx.com/community/threads/2022-atlantic-hurricane-season-thread.1076/page-22

This was recently discussed by one of our leftist posters in this Hurricane Ian Thread as follows:

The problem is officials are afraid to pull the trigger on warnings "to" early.....hell I remember when Hurricane Floyd was coming and they evacuated the entire SE coast from Miami to Hatteras several days before it hit.....then took a lot of heat when it missed Florida...

With Ian they did not issue mandatory evacuation orders in Lee County until Ian was less than 24 hrs out for the Ft Myers area. The NHC had issued a surge warning for Lee County days before they took a hit....there is some indication that Lee County did not follow their own comprehensive emergency management plan.

This will of course lead the the inevitable fight about how crying wolf leads to complacency and people not heeding the warning etc....but at least they had a warning to not heed, and those that wanted to had time to leave....in the end though

The NHC and NWS need to look at finding better ways to convey the danger of these storms better.  https://southernwx.com/community/threads/hurricane-ian.1126/page-105

Ya'll need to stop playing politics with Hurriance Ian cause you're afraid DeSantis will gain popularity.  Honestly, it disgusts all the lefties on weather forums, and it's a bad look when every meteorologist from both sides of the aisle start backing Republican talking points.  The discussion that are being had among the educated circles of Florida on Ian are more substantive than the BS stories from so-called journalists attempting to create controversy in the National News. 

From a non-political member of the meteorology forum: "I'm wondering how high the death toll is really gonna go... I've heard some bad rumors the last couple days that I'm hoping are just the usual false exaggerations but who knows. It sounds like some people who evacuated from Tampa went to Fort Myers though(and most of those hotels were absolutely gutted).... There was a lot of bad decisions all around with this storm."

Oh my lord...

You could have just said you disagreed with me. Not sure I have it in me to read that.

[Hollywood]

Not sure it's going to make a difference but DeSantis and his administration are getting some heavy criticism over the delay in evacuating Lee County. A lot of death could have been avoided had they not waited the day before the landfall of Ian to evacuate.

Also not really anything but DeSantis has been wearing his campaign merch to tour destroyed areas and hand out food. Pretty distasteful in my opinion, not sure anybody cares though.

I disagree.  The media reports that DeSantis is receiving 'heavy criticism' is almost entirely a left-wing smear campaign by left-wing members and influencers within the national media as opposed to genuine public discourse in Florida.  The claim doesn't even hold up on a national level, because even an Economist National Poll of Adults indicates that a plurality of Democrats approve of DeSantis' Hurricane Ian response (43%) while 27% are not sure and 30% Disapprove.  It's ridiculous to even address the claims that 'no one cares' about DeSantis' bad response , because not even Democrats believe the presupposition that DeSantis has made a mistake. 
https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/10/05/hurricane-ian-economist-yougov-poll-october-2022?utm_medium=organic_social&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=SM-2022-10-US-B2C-Weather

I think most people are sickened by the claims by Democrats insinuating that DeSantis is responsible for more deaths cause he didn't act quickly to evacuate Fort Myers. The reality most people observed for themselves was DeSantis providing early warning to evacuate and quickly restoring services to communities despite the stronger than expected impacts.  The reality for most people like me who were awake for 36-48 hours straight during Ian's approach was that the NHC and National News Programs were completely wrong when they disregarded the atmospheric trends that could shift the track way further south into Monroe, and put both Dade and Broward into Major Hurricane conditions.  There was clearly some upper level dynamics depicting a shortwave trough slowly moving towards the Peninsula in concert with a Southeasternly displaced upper level ridge (200-300Mbs) shearing, shifting, shunting, speeding, and dislocating the Ian's vortex and its thunderstorms further east along two distinct transient frontal boundaries (tropical and sub-tropical) despite lower level 700-925Mb pushing the system further north.   

"While watching the Weather Channel discuss how Hurricane Ian would hit Tampa Bay, they switched the feed to an ongoing press conference with Gov. Ron DeSantis. During the press conference, DeSantis made a bold statement which caught the Weather Channel off guard. He said Hurricane Ian may turn and track farther south like Charlie did in 2004.

Even though the spaghetti models had Ian going farther north and south, DeSantis specifically said farther south.  He no doubt said this because he had access to the European weather model output — which all along had shown forecast tracks farther south — even down to Fort Myers. Up until this time, the official forecast was farther north — closer to the statistically less accurate GFS (American) model.

Then, once the TV feed returned back to the Weather Channel studio, you could see they initially didn’t quite know how to follow up on DeSantis’ comment. Of course they knew DeSantis was right, because they also had access to the Euro model output.  Weather Channel forecasters immediately acknowledged DeSantis’ comment and began discussing the Euro model output in earnest. Soon afterwards, the official Hurricane Ian forecast tracks steadily moved southward toward Fort Myers.

DeSantis helped save lives with his public forewarning of Ian’s more southerly track."
https://www.villages-news.com/2022/10/06/desantis-got-it-right-on-hurricane-ian/

So DeSantis was one of the earliest and most outspoken public officials that was warning people to evacuate Fort Myers, but many people didn't listen due to the NHC-Weather Channel graphics and messaging that focused on a Pensacola to Tampa Bay Landfall.   

Why did people die? . The affects of an extremely major hurricane (with extraordinary vertical shear thanks to undisturbed bath water in the W Caribbean and SE Gulf) entering a moderate horizontal shear environment accentuated the impacts on the east side of the storm, and served as a short-term mechanism that increased vorticity (circulation/spin) as well as the strength and expansiveness of the Eastern-displaced convection (Category 4-5) that hit SW Florida.  The impact of mid-upper-level troughs and shortwaves (kinks in jet stream ahead of main trough, or pseudo troughs)  on Major Hurricanes is a less researched phenomenon of Hurricanes that models and meteorologists cannot accurately forecast.  In Northern Hemisphere, these conditions normally shift tracks and impacts further East and NE, rapidly strengthen systems and/or expand wind fields while increasing tornadic activity on the dirty sides of the storms (Think Sandy pivoting West along Negatively tilted winter trough), and increase the timing of impacts and landfalls due to upper level jets before the storm rapidly weakens when the winds blow thunderstorms (vertical Shear) away from core (vertical shear needed to intensify storms).   This is impossible to forecast during October.

Check out this meteorological forum that includes meteorologists talking about the storm (and also has a very rowdy political thread that members must request moderators in order to gain access lol).  We discussed landfalls anywhere from the east coast for Florida to Mississippi, and maps of the upper level environment are depicted.  The warnings to evacuate were ordered, but people didn't follow them.  Emergency Management in those counties didn't know whether evacuation was necessary, because their was uncertainty in the forecast.  Even the Democrat politicians in some of these counties refused to organize a mandatory evacuation, but most of these politicians aren't throwing anyone under the bus like we see Democrats doing at the Federal Level.  DeSantis isn't blaming anyone cause these situations are tricky. https://southernwx.com/community/threads/2022-atlantic-hurricane-season-thread.1076/page-22

This was recently discussed by one of our leftist posters in this Hurricane Ian Thread as follows:

The problem is officials are afraid to pull the trigger on warnings "to" early.....hell I remember when Hurricane Floyd was coming and they evacuated the entire SE coast from Miami to Hatteras several days before it hit.....then took a lot of heat when it missed Florida...

With Ian they did not issue mandatory evacuation orders in Lee County until Ian was less than 24 hrs out for the Ft Myers area. The NHC had issued a surge warning for Lee County days before they took a hit....there is some indication that Lee County did not follow their own comprehensive emergency management plan.

This will of course lead the the inevitable fight about how crying wolf leads to complacency and people not heeding the warning etc....but at least they had a warning to not heed, and those that wanted to had time to leave....in the end though

The NHC and NWS need to look at finding better ways to convey the danger of these storms better.  https://southernwx.com/community/threads/hurricane-ian.1126/page-105

Ya'll need to stop playing politics with Hurriance Ian cause you're afraid DeSantis will gain popularity.  Honestly, it disgusts all the lefties on weather forums, and it's a bad look when every meteorologist from both sides of the aisle start backing Republican talking points.  The discussion that are being had among the educated circles of Florida on Ian are more substantive than the BS stories from so-called journalists attempting to create controversy in the National News. 

From a non-political member of the meteorology forum: "I'm wondering how high the death toll is really gonna go... I've heard some bad rumors the last couple days that I'm hoping are just the usual false exaggerations but who knows. It sounds like some people who evacuated from Tampa went to Fort Myers though(and most of those hotels were absolutely gutted).... There was a lot of bad decisions all around with this storm."

Oh my lord...

You could have just said you disagreed with me. Not sure I have it in me to read that.

You can read it or not read it.  I won't be butt hurt.  I got carried away yesterday.

[2016]

Not sure it's going to make a difference but DeSantis and his administration are getting some heavy criticism over the delay in evacuating Lee County. A lot of death could have been avoided had they not waited the day before the landfall of Ian to evacuate.

Also not really anything but DeSantis has been wearing his campaign merch to tour destroyed areas and hand out food. Pretty distasteful in my opinion, not sure anybody cares though.

I disagree.  The media reports that DeSantis is receiving 'heavy criticism' is almost entirely a left-wing smear campaign by left-wing members and influencers within the national media as opposed to genuine public discourse in Florida.  The claim doesn't even hold up on a national level, because even an Economist National Poll of Adults indicates that a plurality of Democrats approve of DeSantis' Hurricane Ian response (43%) while 27% are not sure and 30% Disapprove.  It's ridiculous to even address the claims that 'no one cares' about DeSantis' bad response , because not even Democrats believe the presupposition that DeSantis has made a mistake. 
https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/10/05/hurricane-ian-economist-yougov-poll-october-2022?utm_medium=organic_social&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=SM-2022-10-US-B2C-Weather

I think most people are sickened by the claims by Democrats insinuating that DeSantis is responsible for more deaths cause he didn't act quickly to evacuate Fort Myers. The reality most people observed for themselves was DeSantis providing early warning to evacuate and quickly restoring services to communities despite the stronger than expected impacts.  The reality for most people like me who were awake for 36-48 hours straight during Ian's approach was that the NHC and National News Programs were completely wrong when they disregarded the atmospheric trends that could shift the track way further south into Monroe, and put both Dade and Broward into Major Hurricane conditions.  There was clearly some upper level dynamics depicting a shortwave trough slowly moving towards the Peninsula in concert with a Southeasternly displaced upper level ridge (200-300Mbs) shearing, shifting, shunting, speeding, and dislocating the Ian's vortex and its thunderstorms further east along two distinct transient frontal boundaries (tropical and sub-tropical) despite lower level 700-925Mb pushing the system further north.   

"While watching the Weather Channel discuss how Hurricane Ian would hit Tampa Bay, they switched the feed to an ongoing press conference with Gov. Ron DeSantis. During the press conference, DeSantis made a bold statement which caught the Weather Channel off guard. He said Hurricane Ian may turn and track farther south like Charlie did in 2004.

Even though the spaghetti models had Ian going farther north and south, DeSantis specifically said farther south.  He no doubt said this because he had access to the European weather model output — which all along had shown forecast tracks farther south — even down to Fort Myers. Up until this time, the official forecast was farther north — closer to the statistically less accurate GFS (American) model.

Then, once the TV feed returned back to the Weather Channel studio, you could see they initially didn’t quite know how to follow up on DeSantis’ comment. Of course they knew DeSantis was right, because they also had access to the Euro model output.  Weather Channel forecasters immediately acknowledged DeSantis’ comment and began discussing the Euro model output in earnest. Soon afterwards, the official Hurricane Ian forecast tracks steadily moved southward toward Fort Myers.

DeSantis helped save lives with his public forewarning of Ian’s more southerly track."
https://www.villages-news.com/2022/10/06/desantis-got-it-right-on-hurricane-ian/

So DeSantis was one of the earliest and most outspoken public officials that was warning people to evacuate Fort Myers, but many people didn't listen due to the NHC-Weather Channel graphics and messaging that focused on a Pensacola to Tampa Bay Landfall.   

Why did people die? . The affects of an extremely major hurricane (with extraordinary vertical shear thanks to undisturbed bath water in the W Caribbean and SE Gulf) entering a moderate horizontal shear environment accentuated the impacts on the east side of the storm, and served as a short-term mechanism that increased vorticity (circulation/spin) as well as the strength and expansiveness of the Eastern-displaced convection (Category 4-5) that hit SW Florida.  The impact of mid-upper-level troughs and shortwaves (kinks in jet stream ahead of main trough, or pseudo troughs)  on Major Hurricanes is a less researched phenomenon of Hurricanes that models and meteorologists cannot accurately forecast.  In Northern Hemisphere, these conditions normally shift tracks and impacts further East and NE, rapidly strengthen systems and/or expand wind fields while increasing tornadic activity on the dirty sides of the storms (Think Sandy pivoting West along Negatively tilted winter trough), and increase the timing of impacts and landfalls due to upper level jets before the storm rapidly weakens when the winds blow thunderstorms (vertical Shear) away from core (vertical shear needed to intensify storms).   This is impossible to forecast during October.

Check out this meteorological forum that includes meteorologists talking about the storm (and also has a very rowdy political thread that members must request moderators in order to gain access lol).  We discussed landfalls anywhere from the east coast for Florida to Mississippi, and maps of the upper level environment are depicted.  The warnings to evacuate were ordered, but people didn't follow them.  Emergency Management in those counties didn't know whether evacuation was necessary, because their was uncertainty in the forecast.  Even the Democrat politicians in some of these counties refused to organize a mandatory evacuation, but most of these politicians aren't throwing anyone under the bus like we see Democrats doing at the Federal Level.  DeSantis isn't blaming anyone cause these situations are tricky. https://southernwx.com/community/threads/2022-atlantic-hurricane-season-thread.1076/page-22

This was recently discussed by one of our leftist posters in this Hurricane Ian Thread as follows:

The problem is officials are afraid to pull the trigger on warnings "to" early.....hell I remember when Hurricane Floyd was coming and they evacuated the entire SE coast from Miami to Hatteras several days before it hit.....then took a lot of heat when it missed Florida...

With Ian they did not issue mandatory evacuation orders in Lee County until Ian was less than 24 hrs out for the Ft Myers area. The NHC had issued a surge warning for Lee County days before they took a hit....there is some indication that Lee County did not follow their own comprehensive emergency management plan.

This will of course lead the the inevitable fight about how crying wolf leads to complacency and people not heeding the warning etc....but at least they had a warning to not heed, and those that wanted to had time to leave....in the end though

The NHC and NWS need to look at finding better ways to convey the danger of these storms better.  https://southernwx.com/community/threads/hurricane-ian.1126/page-105

Ya'll need to stop playing politics with Hurriance Ian cause you're afraid DeSantis will gain popularity.  Honestly, it disgusts all the lefties on weather forums, and it's a bad look when every meteorologist from both sides of the aisle start backing Republican talking points.  The discussion that are being had among the educated circles of Florida on Ian are more substantive than the BS stories from so-called journalists attempting to create controversy in the National News. 

From a non-political member of the meteorology forum: "I'm wondering how high the death toll is really gonna go... I've heard some bad rumors the last couple days that I'm hoping are just the usual false exaggerations but who knows. It sounds like some people who evacuated from Tampa went to Fort Myers though(and most of those hotels were absolutely gutted).... There was a lot of bad decisions all around with this storm."

Oh my lord...

You could have just said you disagreed with me. Not sure I have it in me to read that.

You can read it or not read it.  I won't be butt hurt.  I got carried away yesterday.

@Hollywood,
How are things down there where you live after IAN?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's a 303 map anyways we are underdogs in red states especially since the DSCC said they are only putting in money to 303 candidates that's why Barnes have a chance but just think there is 5/6 percent of minority vote and females vote D, I cannot underestimate that, the reason why Rs overperform in 2020 and Trump almost won,above expectations the economy improved, the unemployment rate went down but no inflation because wages didn't go up until 2021, number two Rs offered two 120o checks, and number 3 most of our Females lost not men, Fink, Greenfield, Boiler, Yea Bullock lost to Daines but no R has beaten Tester and Daines and Gianforte are already in another office

So, it's called a 303 map with wave insurance, I would make a 303 map but I can't update my map on Eday and if we win 52 votes Schumer will offer McMullin a chairmanship and he will caucus with Ds that would end Rs hopes of winning the S in 24 based on OH, WVA and MT so we don't need OH, NC or FL we need UT, WI, PA, GA, NV and AZ and NH to solidify 53/47 Senate but Ryan and Beasley are A candidates not B like Sherrod Brown now better than DEMINGS

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/aaronparseghian/status/1580543750522093568

These accommodations for voters affected by the hurricane are completely appropriate and welcome. 

However, I find it ironic that a Republican governor is doing this when similar accommodations by various states during the 2020 pandemic were loudly condemned by Republicans as a way to help Democrats commit voter fraud, and were cited by some Republican members of Congress as a justification for them to object to the electoral vote certification.

[Hope For A New Era]

https://twitter.com/aaronparseghian/status/1580543750522093568

This is why I hate this guy.

Here I was in 2019 thinking he pulled some brilliant bait-and-switch on Trumpists by running crazy ads and then turning into a surprise moderate once in office.

And then it turned out that the moderate was the facade.

Except sometimes he still does random things like this, and people stay fooled into thinking he's not extreme.


Americans will truly latch on to any reason to vote for a Republican.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

DeSantis and Rubio were fav anyways even before the Hurricane we can beat Rick Scott in 24 with Gwen Graham, DeSantis is gonna overperforning with Latinos like Trump beat Hillary in FL in 2016 because of Rubio, Rick Scott won't get that many Latinos as much as Rubio in 24 against Graham

It would be smart for Biden to get Gwen Graham to run for Sen especially in 24 because he will be running against DeSantis not TRUMP

Ds are focused on WI, PA, NC, GA, OH, AZ, NV and PA that's why Center Street Pac is polling AZ, UT, PA and OH so much and NC is a pure tossup


Rachel Maddow says it's a 51/44 map PA, AZ, NV, NHand GA goes D while UT, NC and OH and WI are tossups

[HidingCommentary]

Not sure it's going to make a difference but DeSantis and his administration are getting some heavy criticism over the delay in evacuating Lee County. A lot of death could have been avoided had they not waited the day before the landfall of Ian to evacuate.

Also not really anything but DeSantis has been wearing his campaign merch to tour destroyed areas and hand out food. Pretty distasteful in my opinion, not sure anybody cares though.

I disagree.  The media reports that DeSantis is receiving 'heavy criticism' is almost entirely a left-wing smear campaign by left-wing members and influencers within the national media as opposed to genuine public discourse in Florida.  The claim doesn't even hold up on a national level, because even an Economist National Poll of Adults indicates that a plurality of Democrats approve of DeSantis' Hurricane Ian response (43%) while 27% are not sure and 30% Disapprove.  It's ridiculous to even address the claims that 'no one cares' about DeSantis' bad response , because not even Democrats believe the presupposition that DeSantis has made a mistake. 
https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/articles-reports/2022/10/05/hurricane-ian-economist-yougov-poll-october-2022?utm_medium=organic_social&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=SM-2022-10-US-B2C-Weather

I think most people are sickened by the claims by Democrats insinuating that DeSantis is responsible for more deaths cause he didn't act quickly to evacuate Fort Myers. The reality most people observed for themselves was DeSantis providing early warning to evacuate and quickly restoring services to communities despite the stronger than expected impacts.  The reality for most people like me who were awake for 36-48 hours straight during Ian's approach was that the NHC and National News Programs were completely wrong when they disregarded the atmospheric trends that could shift the track way further south into Monroe, and put both Dade and Broward into Major Hurricane conditions.  There was clearly some upper level dynamics depicting a shortwave trough slowly moving towards the Peninsula in concert with a Southeasternly displaced upper level ridge (200-300Mbs) shearing, shifting, shunting, speeding, and dislocating the Ian's vortex and its thunderstorms further east along two distinct transient frontal boundaries (tropical and sub-tropical) despite lower level 700-925Mb pushing the system further north.   

"While watching the Weather Channel discuss how Hurricane Ian would hit Tampa Bay, they switched the feed to an ongoing press conference with Gov. Ron DeSantis. During the press conference, DeSantis made a bold statement which caught the Weather Channel off guard. He said Hurricane Ian may turn and track farther south like Charlie did in 2004.

Even though the spaghetti models had Ian going farther north and south, DeSantis specifically said farther south.  He no doubt said this because he had access to the European weather model output — which all along had shown forecast tracks farther south — even down to Fort Myers. Up until this time, the official forecast was farther north — closer to the statistically less accurate GFS (American) model.

Then, once the TV feed returned back to the Weather Channel studio, you could see they initially didn’t quite know how to follow up on DeSantis’ comment. Of course they knew DeSantis was right, because they also had access to the Euro model output.  Weather Channel forecasters immediately acknowledged DeSantis’ comment and began discussing the Euro model output in earnest. Soon afterwards, the official Hurricane Ian forecast tracks steadily moved southward toward Fort Myers.

DeSantis helped save lives with his public forewarning of Ian’s more southerly track."
https://www.villages-news.com/2022/10/06/desantis-got-it-right-on-hurricane-ian/

So DeSantis was one of the earliest and most outspoken public officials that was warning people to evacuate Fort Myers, but many people didn't listen due to the NHC-Weather Channel graphics and messaging that focused on a Pensacola to Tampa Bay Landfall.   

Why did people die? . The affects of an extremely major hurricane (with extraordinary vertical shear thanks to undisturbed bath water in the W Caribbean and SE Gulf) entering a moderate horizontal shear environment accentuated the impacts on the east side of the storm, and served as a short-term mechanism that increased vorticity (circulation/spin) as well as the strength and expansiveness of the Eastern-displaced convection (Category 4-5) that hit SW Florida.  The impact of mid-upper-level troughs and shortwaves (kinks in jet stream ahead of main trough, or pseudo troughs)  on Major Hurricanes is a less researched phenomenon of Hurricanes that models and meteorologists cannot accurately forecast.  In Northern Hemisphere, these conditions normally shift tracks and impacts further East and NE, rapidly strengthen systems and/or expand wind fields while increasing tornadic activity on the dirty sides of the storms (Think Sandy pivoting West along Negatively tilted winter trough), and increase the timing of impacts and landfalls due to upper level jets before the storm rapidly weakens when the winds blow thunderstorms (vertical Shear) away from core (vertical shear needed to intensify storms).   This is impossible to forecast during October.

Check out this meteorological forum that includes meteorologists talking about the storm (and also has a very rowdy political thread that members must request moderators in order to gain access lol).  We discussed landfalls anywhere from the east coast for Florida to Mississippi, and maps of the upper level environment are depicted.  The warnings to evacuate were ordered, but people didn't follow them.  Emergency Management in those counties didn't know whether evacuation was necessary, because their was uncertainty in the forecast.  Even the Democrat politicians in some of these counties refused to organize a mandatory evacuation, but most of these politicians aren't throwing anyone under the bus like we see Democrats doing at the Federal Level.  DeSantis isn't blaming anyone cause these situations are tricky. https://southernwx.com/community/threads/2022-atlantic-hurricane-season-thread.1076/page-22

This was recently discussed by one of our leftist posters in this Hurricane Ian Thread as follows:

The problem is officials are afraid to pull the trigger on warnings "to" early.....hell I remember when Hurricane Floyd was coming and they evacuated the entire SE coast from Miami to Hatteras several days before it hit.....then took a lot of heat when it missed Florida...

With Ian they did not issue mandatory evacuation orders in Lee County until Ian was less than 24 hrs out for the Ft Myers area. The NHC had issued a surge warning for Lee County days before they took a hit....there is some indication that Lee County did not follow their own comprehensive emergency management plan.

This will of course lead the the inevitable fight about how crying wolf leads to complacency and people not heeding the warning etc....but at least they had a warning to not heed, and those that wanted to had time to leave....in the end though

The NHC and NWS need to look at finding better ways to convey the danger of these storms better.  https://southernwx.com/community/threads/hurricane-ian.1126/page-105

Ya'll need to stop playing politics with Hurriance Ian cause you're afraid DeSantis will gain popularity.  Honestly, it disgusts all the lefties on weather forums, and it's a bad look when every meteorologist from both sides of the aisle start backing Republican talking points.  The discussion that are being had among the educated circles of Florida on Ian are more substantive than the BS stories from so-called journalists attempting to create controversy in the National News. 

From a non-political member of the meteorology forum: "I'm wondering how high the death toll is really gonna go... I've heard some bad rumors the last couple days that I'm hoping are just the usual false exaggerations but who knows. It sounds like some people who evacuated from Tampa went to Fort Myers though(and most of those hotels were absolutely gutted).... There was a lot of bad decisions all around with this storm."

Oh my lord...

You could have just said you disagreed with me. Not sure I have it in me to read that.

You can read it or not read it.  I won't be butt hurt.  I got carried away yesterday.

I appreciate you putting so much effort into a response. I shall definitely go back and read it in the future. I was grumpy and my response wasn't very respectful. Even if i dont agree, i'm glad to read through thoughtful posts.

[fluffypanther19]

hollywood isnt wrong. i love following weather, especially tropical weather and the models for ian were honestly very well off. ian came a lot further south than what was predicted even 36 hours before he made landfall. weather is always a little unpredictable so evacuation orders will always be a tough call. as far as i can see desantis and other fl officials have done at least a decent job so far

[Agafin]

Desantis seems to have mastered the art of being a moderate extremist.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ds have already given up on this one and diverted resources to OH, UT, NC, WI and NV we will be more reformed next time when we target Rick Scott in 24 without the Latino vote that Rubio has in reserve with Gwen Graham, Rick Scott barely beat Bill Nelson

AZ, GA and PA are just as sewn up for Ds as Rs have seen up FL, OH GOV and TX

They still have hopes for DEMINGS but not Crist, obviously because Rubio is only up by 6, but DeSantis or Trump aren't winning in 2024 anyways it's a 303 map Senate and Evers, Whitmer and Shapiro are  gonna win and Sisolak the only one that's gonna win is Lake and Kemp because Hobbs won't debate Lake and lost momentum

But NC is gonna be contested in 22/24, NC Gov is not Solid R in 24

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/defede/status/1581035734714105856

[2016]

The 3 Hardest Hit Counties are Collier, Lee and Charlotte.

Of Course the Liberal Mob Washington Post Smoke Paper can't even name the D-County.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

DeSantis is running with Rubio not Rick Scott he is gonna perform above average than otherwise would when he ran with Scott in 2018 because of the Latino vote is gonna go with Rs. That's why Ds are best off to wait till 24,0when Scott is on the ballot, Gwen Graham can defeat Scott. But, the reason why Trump won FL in 2016 in the first place over Hillary was due to Rubio.

OH, NC and FL are Lean R anyways but UT is a WC because if we win UT Schumer will offer McMullin a chairmanship to caucus with Ds Barnes is 1 pt ahead but WI is a blue state and Kleefisch isn't on the ballot and Fetterman is Favored it's will be a 53/47 but Ryan and Beasley are A tier candidates and can pull off the upset not DEMINGS, DSCC and TMac and Bernie and Warren are campaign for Barnes and Fetterman anyways

We don't need OH, NC and FL because of UT, but there is still a shot to win OH and NC that's why Rachel Maddow says it's a 51/45 GA runoff, UT, OH and NC