Florida 2022 Megathread

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

DeSantis will probably get significant cross-over support, which is becoming rare. Shaping up more and more like a Chris Christie type (not really a pure compliment).

impact/AARP had this race 50/48 Rubio and DeSantis 50/47 Trump won FL by 3 and that's all DeSantis is gonna win by if he wins

Impact is GARBARGE for the upteeth time. Stop quoting Impact/AARP Polls. All other Independent Polls have DeSantis up by 5-7 Points.

Just remember we haven't voted yet until we do DeSantis hasn't been reelected , and you should stop declaring Premature victory until we vote it's gonna be closer than 7 I'd Rubio is only up by 2 Trump only won FL by 3 ots

Olowakandi,
You are talking absolute utter nonsense here. You should stop comparing FL to 2020. It's a different State. Are you just ignoring the 1M+ New Voters that moved to Florida since DeSantis took Office?

Crist wants Vaccine Passports back, wants Masks Mandates for the entire State and it Schools. Don't you think Florida has suffered enough from Bidens blatant bad COVID Policies?

Biden hasn't imposed any national COVID policies that are still in effect.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Trump CDC imposed the COVID Mask mandates but as soon as Biden gets elected Conservatives put the vaccine and COVID regulations on Biden, Pence was in charge of the CDC too

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Shock POLL Crist 53/47 Ha 2016

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1573304795024297984?t=8bo30ZHHE_ewF2-swBbz8Q&s=19

[2016]

Shock POLL Crist 53/47 Ha 2016

https://twitter.com/stella2020woof/status/1573304795024297984?t=8bo30ZHHE_ewF2-swBbz8Q&s=19

It's a illegal Polling Outfit that has already been called out by Chuck Todd on NBC.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Who cares he's ahead , it's says on the Twitter feed Projects 538 and at any rate your Vance is losing in Baldwin too 48/45 as I said we still have to vote

[hurricanehink]

A hurricane is projected to hit southwestern Florida next Wednesday. That’ll give DeSantis plenty of media exposure, with state of emergency, disaster cleanup, whatnot. I hope everyone is safe from this projected storm, and that cool, rational heads will prevail. But this is America, so… *shrug emoji*

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

A hurricane is projected to hit southwestern Florida next Wednesday. That’ll give DeSantis plenty of media exposure, with state of emergency, disaster cleanup, whatnot. I hope everyone is safe from this projected storm, and that cool, rational heads will prevail. But this is America, so… *shrug emoji*

It's only gonna be a  category 1 storm not major Hurricane  90 MPH which is nothing, a category 4 that hit PR is something

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/biden-aim-bully-desantis-florida-100623609.html

Crist is attending campaign event by BIDEN  on Tuesday

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

DeSANTIS faces trial

Good news for Gov elect Crist whom is up 53/47

https://www.yahoo.com/news/desantis-face-trial-suspension-prosecutor-080029336.html

[hurricanehink]

A hurricane is projected to hit southwestern Florida next Wednesday. That’ll give DeSantis plenty of media exposure, with state of emergency, disaster cleanup, whatnot. I hope everyone is safe from this projected storm, and that cool, rational heads will prevail. But this is America, so… *shrug emoji*

It's only gonna be a  category 1 storm not major Hurricane  90 MPH which is nothing, a category 4 that hit PR is something

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/205548.shtml?cone#contents - the "M" means major, as in Category 3 hurricane.

[2016]

The Hurricane will help DeSantis just like it helped Rick Scott in 2018. I actually think Scott beat Nelson because of Scotts Response to Hurricane Michael.

Floridians will always rally behind their Governor when they face a Natural Disaster like a Hurricane.

Remember Surfside. DeSantis Approvals jumped up immediatedly.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's not just about Hurricanes Rubio and DeSantis polls are affected by what's going on in Mara Largo, classified documents,f it was about Hurricanes DeSantis would still be miles ahead of Crist because of Surfside, it's no coincidence that Rubio is tied with Demings only 2 not 7 pts ahead, but it's wave insurance it's not a must win, I put it on my map because it's the first swing state up and don't want to be wrong in case NC and FL and OH the first swing states up, if it goes D and same with SC Gov another tight Gov race

Users don't believe you can endorse candidate even if they lose but Rs can lose as well DeSantis campaigned with Lake and Mastriano and they are gonna lose

[prag_prog]

look at the discrepancy in ad spending in Florida lol

https://twitter.com/jamesrhenson/status/1573694939124342785

[President Johnson]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/biden-aim-bully-desantis-florida-100623609.html

Crist is attending campaign event by BIDEN  on Tuesday

While he'd lose the race regardless, it's good to have Democratic candidates embrace Dark Brandon and not run away from him as Democrats did in 2014 with Obama. I even remember certain candidates running around saying "I'm a Clinton Democrat, not an Obama Democrat".

[2016]

Here is the problem I have with Olowakandi,
He lives and dies by the Polls no matter which State.

However if you are a smart man you would look at other metrics especially in a State like Florida:

A) The Crist Campaign has no GROUND GAME, GOTV Game in FL from what I could observe despite Crist running his 3rd Statewide Campaign. They are purely running on an Anti-DeSantis hate Campaign in the State. That ain't going to be enough to win I can tell you that..

B) The FL Democratic Party is in complete shambles under the Leadership of Manny Diaz and they are running against the best Republican State Party of the entire Country. The Infrastructure FL Republicans have put in place actually since Jeb Bush's tenure as Governor is just mind-boggling. They can be beaten BUT you almost have to run a perfect FL Campaign in the mold of Barack Obama in 2008 & 2012 and clearly the Crist & FL D-Party is not on par with that Campaign.

C) Florida has almost 6 different Media Markets: Miami, Ft. Lauderdale (Southeast), Naples, Ft. Myers, Sarasota (Southwest), Tampa & St. Pete, Orlando, Jacksonville, Tallahassee, Pensacola (Panhandle).
Conclusion: You need an awful lot of money to be competitive in FL and Crist is certainly not getting the ouside money Andrew Gillum got in 2018.

So, everyone here should just tone down the Polling Nonsense and look at State Metrics.

I actually think and call me crazy that Beasley has a better shot at beating Budd than Crist & Demings have beating DeSantis & Rubio because the North Carolina Republican Party can be a little bit LAZY. They almost cost Tillis the Senate Race & Trump the State because they were so lazy.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I think it's go na be a 226 RH and 53/47 Sen D's net WI, PA and OH just like Trump had45/53 Approvals, Trump lost33H seats and had a 53/47 Senate although we can lose GA and replace it with OH and UT is very close no one knows which caucus McMillan will caucus with


The Greenberg GCB has it +3 D 50/479r NBC news 46/46 the Rs were in this pt in time in 2010/14  R 48/42 on rel clear it's not about polls it's about GCB we went 3/2 in special elections and VA was only 2 the out party supposed to sweep special elections we won AK, NY 19 and Cali recall and lost TX 34 and VA

But my map isn't for accurate predictions I am one of the few Ds from the class of2006 that made wave insurance maps the other users are from after 2010 if we had 900 users like we did in 2006 that compiled map would not be at an R nut map, I don't want to be wrong on Eday in. Case Ryan, Beasley or Demings or Franken or TrudyBrusch Valentine wins and FL, NC are the first swing states up, I know it's wave insurance FL but so was KY 2019 the Atlas meme was Beshear was gonna lose and he won and he is 49 yrs old just like Ryan and Vance and Bevin are the same

Every pollster except Trafalgar, Emerson have NV OH and WI Barnes, Ryan and CCM winning an I gonna ignore change or Baldwin or Siena or Data for Progress that has Laxalt only up 1 not three and Ryan and Barnes ahead no I am not tye other polls are correspondence with the other state by state polls

Why are Emerson and Trafalgar showing bias in OH because they have DeWine winning by 15 and in Change he is only winning by 7 45/39 not 55/39 just like Shapiro abd Whitmer are gonna win by 7 not 55)39



I donated to Tim Ryan but I had OH Leaning R, I had only a 303 map for the longest time until July when Impact/AARP started to poll OH and showed Ryan ahead 46/41

[2016]

I think it's go na be a 226 RH and 53/47 Sen D's net WI, PA and OH just like Trump had45/53 Approvals, Trump lost33H seats and had a 53/47 Senate although we can lose GA and replace it with OH and UT is very close no one knows which caucus McMillan will caucus with


The Greenberg GCB has it +3 D 50/479r NBC news 46/46 the Rs were in this pt in time in 2010/14  R 48/42 on rel clear it's not about polls it's about GCB we went 3/2 in special elections and VA was only 2 the out party supposed to sweep special elections we won AK, NY 19 and Cali recall and lost TX 34 and VA

But my map isn't for accurate predictions I am one of the few Ds from the class of2006 that made wave insurance maps the other users are from after 2010 if we had 900 users like we did in 2006 that compiled map would not be at an R nut map, I don't want to be wrong on Eday in. Case Ryan, Beasley or Demings or Franken or TrudyBrusch Valentine wins and FL, NC are the first swing states up, I know it's wave insurance FL but so was KY 2019 the Atlas meme was Beshear was gonna lose and he won and he is 49 yrs old just like Ryan and Vance and Bevin are the same

Every pollster except Trafalgar, Emerson have NV OH and WI Barnes, Ryan and CCM winning an I gonna ignore change or Baldwin or Siena or Data for Progress that has Laxalt only up 1 not three and Ryan and Barnes ahead no I am not tye other polls are correspondence with the other state by state polls

Why are Emerson and Trafalgar showing bias in OH because they have DeWine winning by 15 and in Change he is only winning by 7 45/39 not 55/39 just like Shapiro abd Whitmer are gonna win by 7 not 55)39

You will be off in a Number of ways. Stop looking just at Polling. Look at Voter Registrations, State Party Infrastructures, Media Ad Campaigns, etc.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We won KY 2019 and we lost it by 20 pts and Andy Beshear won and the same can happen in OH we aren't gonna sweep but upsets do happen

The Atlas meme wasKY 2019 like OH 22 red Appalachian

[EastwoodS]

Stop interacting with olawakandi, there’s literally no point.

[Niemeyerite]

Stop interacting with olawakandi or 2016, there’s literally no point.

[UWS]

The Hurricane will help DeSantis just like it helped Rick Scott in 2018. I actually think Scott beat Nelson because of Scotts Response to Hurricane Michael.

Floridians will always rally behind their Governor when they face a Natural Disaster like a Hurricane.

Remember Surfside. DeSantis Approvals jumped up immediatedly.

Meanwhile, Demings voted against the Disaster Tax Relief and Airport and Airway Extension Act of 2017 that provided Tax Relief for the victims of Hurricane Irma even after that Hurricane hit Florida just like Beto O'Rourke voted against that same bill that also provided Tax Relief for the victims of Hurricane Harvey, which helped Cruz to defeat O'Rourke while Rubio led the effort to pass Emergency Tax Relief along with John Cornyn and Ted Cruz which gave over $5 billion in emergency tax relief for families impacted by Hurricane Irma. It passed both houses of Congress overwhelmingly and was signed into law and provided immediate relief for the Floridians impacted by Hurricane Irma.

https://clerk.house.gov/evs/2017/roll542.xml

https://www.cruz.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/Bills/20170928_Hurricane_Victim_Tax_Relief_Act_2017.pdf

[UWS]

Karla Marx is really not giving Crist any favor as she stepped in it with a flippant remark that demeaned special needs students. She said “I’m a sp-ed (special education) teacher, so my major is emotionally handicapped education, OK? That by itself qualifies me to deal with a dysfunctional Legislature.”

https://twitter.com/DeSantisWarRoom/status/1573673586849730560?cxt=HHwWgMC-icTy5...

In response to that, Casey DeSantis tweeted, “Sickened by callous words from someone who claims to be an advocate for our children. … I will make it my mission to let all parents know of the ‘hate in your heart.'”

https://www.winknews.com/2022/09/15/karla-hernandez-charlie-crists-running-mate-criticized-over-special-ed-comments/

That’s why Florida Politics ranked Karla Marx as the almost biggest loser in Florida politics while it ranked GOP voter registration as the biggest winner of the week in Florida politics. So let me be clear, you can’t be pro-parents and students and pro-teacher unions at the same time. You have to choose.

https://floridapolitics.com/archives/558120-winner-and-loser-of-the-week-in-florida-politics-week-of-9-18-22/

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rubio is only up 2 pts, in Civiq and he was supposed to win by 10 he is underperforming

You Rs lost Red state AK already it's not a red wave yr 245RH and 54RS or Rs would be ahead 48/42 like in 2010 plus 6 on GCB and D's have been tied or Leading in GCB Greenberg 50/47 that's not an R wave, that's why Rs lost AK

[Devout Centrist]

Karla Marx is really not giving Crist any favor as she stepped in it with a flippant remark that demeaned special needs students. She said “I’m a sp-ed (special education) teacher, so my major is emotionally handicapped education, OK? That by itself qualifies me to deal with a dysfunctional Legislature.”

This is the highest energy thing a Florida Democrat has said, maybe ever.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We don't need red states we only need 270 but Rs are underpolling in red states and 5 pts is close enough for D's with Early voting to steal OH or UT and mount an upset GA and AZ and VA were red states and George Allen was supposed to win 2006 and he had to apologize on Natl TV on Chris Matthews for his political stunt

Doug Gillmore and Ed Gillespie were supposed to be Gov or Sen they FAILED