India 2021 assembly elections - TN, Kerala, WB, Assam, and perhaps J&K

[jaichind]

Current count

AITC continues to gain in WB while other states are holding steady which is what the vote share analysis so far would suggest.

WB            Seats   vs 2019
AITC+         204        +41
BJP+             85        -36
LEFT/INC        1          -7
OTH               2         +2
Awaiting         2 (will not be counted today)

Tamil Nadu  Seats    vs 2016
DMK+          132       +34
AIADM         101        -35
MNM+             1         +1
AMMK+           0         
OTH

Kerela        Seats    vs 2016
LDF              89           -7
UDF             46           +4
NDA              3           +2
OTH              2           +1

Assam        Seats    vs 2019
NDA            79         +1
UPA             47         +5
AJP+             0                     
OTH              0          -6

Puducherry  Seats  vs 2016
NDA             11        +2
UPA               6         -1
AMMK+         0
OTH              0          -1
Awaiting       13

[jaichind]

ECI website count slows to a craw.  I suspect this is because of COVID-19 is slowing down the counting.  Still I think the seat count will not change from here.   I think the winning party will gain some more seats in all the states but most likely not that much.  It will be hours before we know.

[jaichind]

Current count

Winning party slowing gaining across the board. 

WB            Seats   vs 2019
AITC+         210        +47
BJP+             80        -41
LEFT/INC        1          -7  (from INC)
OTH               1         +1  (GJM (Tamang faction))
Awaiting         2 (will not be counted today)

Tamil Nadu  Seats    vs 2016
DMK+          142       +44
AIADM           90        -46
MNM+             1         +1
AMMK+           1         +1
OTH

Kerela        Seats    vs 2016
LDF              95          -1   (NDTV mislabeled a pro-CPM independent as other, I am fixing here)
UDF             45           +3
NDA              0           -1
OTH              0           -1

Assam        Seats    vs 2019
NDA            78         +1
UPA             47         +5
AJP+             0                     
OTH              1          -5  (AIUDF rebel)

Puducherry  Seats  vs 2016
NDA             12        +2
UPA               6         -1
AMMK+         0
OTH              0          -1
Awaiting       12

[jaichind]

After 16 rounds, AITC CM Mamata Banerjee leading by 820 votes in Nandigram.  This is neck-to-neck and down to the wire.

[jaichind]

BJP did not have a CM face in WB and lost in what many expected them to at least come close to winning.  In Assam and Kerala INC did not have a CM face and have lost both many considered winnable races.  in TN, DMK had a clear CM face and won, even if by somewhat a smaller margin than expected.

[jaichind]

WB vote share (NOTA stripped out).  I can only get INC CPM CPI for Left Front-INC-ISF

Not much shift in vote share.  ECI is way behind so these numbers are most likely obsolete.

AITC                   48.59%

BJP+                  37.81%
BJP                      37.74%
AJSU                    0.07%

Left Front-INC    7.58%
CPM                    4.54%
INC                     2.82%
CPI                     0.22%

[jaichind]

Assam vote share so far (I have to compute UPPL by hand) (NOTA not stripped out)

UPA closes the gap a bit.  Note that BJP AGP and UPPL did have a bunch of friendly contests and the same is true for INC and AIUDF.

NDA    45.40%
BJP       31.77%
AGP        8.08%
UPPL      5.55%

UPA     43.60%
INC       28.67%
AIUDF     8.23%
BPF         4.67%
CPM        1.02%
CPI(ML)   0.44%
AGM        0.28%
RJD         0.16%
CPI         0.13%

[jaichind]

TN vote share (too lazy to compute VCK vote share since it is tiny) with NOTA not stripped out

VCK is most likely around .5%-1% so the DMK+ vote share lead over AIADMK+ is most likely around 3.5%-4% which would imply something like 170-60 seat lead.  Right now AIADMK+ is at 92 seats.  Based on this vote share AIADMK+ seat count will most likely go down.

AIADMK+      40.42%
AIADMK          33.56%
PMK                 4.37%
BJP                  2.79%

DMK+         43.56%
DMK               37.19%
INC                 4.06%
CPI                 1.14%
CPM                0.68%
IUML                0.49%

[jaichind]

It seems AITC CM Mamata Banerjee wins Nandigram by the tiny margin 1500 votes.  Her gamble of staring down the BJP has paid off.

[jaichind]

Kerala vote share

To lazy to compute KEC(J) for UDF, the pro-CPM independents for LDF and BDJS for NDA.  Have not shifted that much from a few hours ago. Most likely LDF will have a 5% lead over UDF for a solid victory.  BJP did not gain that much from 2016 and most likely NDA lost a bit of ground from 2016.

LDF
CPM       25.64%
CPI          6.82%
KEC(M)    4.34%
JD(S)       1.32%
NCP         0.90%

UDF
INC       23.97%
IUML       8.11%
RSP         1.29%

NDA
BJP       11.43%

[jaichind]

Famous political strategist who work on the 2014 BJP LS elections, 2015 JD(U) Bihar assembly elections, 2017 INC  UP elections, and now 2021 AITC WB elections  Prashant Kishor passed the test.  He vowed that BJP will not cross 100 seats in WB and he has been proven right.

[jaichind]

Puducherry vote share so far (the count is very slow)

UPA doing better than expected.  NDA will win but the gap most likely will not be as large as pre-election projections.  Another incumbent overperformance

NDA           43.73%
AINRC          27.38%
BJP              13.27%
AIADMK         3.08%

UPA           41.08%
INC             19.56%
DMK            18.57%
CPI               0.00%
VCK              0.00%
IND              2.95%

[jaichind]

in Assam BPF is now down to 1 seat that it is leading in.

 I guess my pre-election prediction was mostly correct: This election will come down to Bodoland.  NDA will sweep Upper Assam while UPA will make a lot of gains in Lower Assam which will mostly cancel each other out.  If UPA can sweep Bodoland then UPA will most likely be a narrow winner. 

Now it is NDA that swept Bodoland which is worth about 9-10 extra seats I did not expect them to win.  Right now NDA is ahead in 77 seats.  Had they not been ahead in these 9-10 seats they would be down to 67-68 seats which is barely enough for a majority.  My calibration was off in the rest of Assam but what made the NDA victory decisive was the NDA sweep of Bodoland.

[jaichind]

Current count

AITC, DMK+, LDF slowing gaining.

WB            Seats   vs 2019
AITC+         215        +52
BJP+             76        -45
LEFT/INC        0          -8  
OTH               1         +1  (GJM (Tamang faction))
Awaiting         2 (will not be counted today)

Tamil Nadu  Seats    vs 2016
DMK+          144       +46
AIADM           88        -48
MNM+             1         +1
AMMK+           1         +1
OTH

Kerela        Seats    vs 2016
LDF              96                (NDTV mislabeled a pro-CPM independent as other, I am fixing here)
UDF             44           +2
NDA              0           -1
OTH              0           -1

Assam        Seats    vs 2019
NDA            77         -1
UPA             48         +6
AJP+             0                    
OTH              1          -5  (AIUDF rebel)

Puducherry  Seats  vs 2016
NDA             13        +2
UPA               6         -3
AMMK+         0
OTH              1         +1   (AINRC rebel)
Awaiting       10

[jaichind]

In Assam, jailed leader of RD Akhil Gogoi is ahead in his seat over his BJP rival.  It seems he is helped by tactical voting by pro-INC voters.  Not sure if this lead will hold up.

[jaichind]

CSDS exit polls

TN: DMK+ ahead AIADMK+ by 5%-7% and will win conformably
Kerala: LDF ahead of UDF by 6%-7% and win by a large margin
WB: AITC ahead of BJP by 4%-5% and win a majority
Assam: NDA ahead of UPA by 4%-5% and will win conformably

CSDS polls are the standard CW polls.  They
a) tend to herd
b) overestimate the ruling party
c) do not pick up waves

I am pretty sure they are overestimating  the ruling party by at least 2%-3% if not more assuming there is no large pro-incumbent wave which we will only know about after the fact.  At this stage only Kerala is there a chance of a hidden pro-incumbent wave. Also, I am pretty sure that in Assam UPA will most likely win the popular vote even if they might end up behind in seat count to NDA.

It seems they got it right.  Although they overestimated the NDA edge in Assam and underestimated the AITC edge in WB.  They also somewhat overestimated the DMK+ edge in TN.  Still they did a good job and my claims that they overestimate the incumbent ended up not being true.

[eos]

BPF is putting up a late fight, leading in 3 and won in 3.

[jaichind]

BPF is putting up a late fight, leading in 3 and won in 3.

Where do you see that?  NDTV has them ahead in zero and ECI has them ahead in 1.

[eos]

BPF is putting up a late fight, leading in 3 and won in 3.

Where do you see that?  NDTV has them ahead in zero and ECI has them ahead in 1.

https://www.news18.com/assembly-elections-2021/assam/alliance-wise-tally-results/

[jaichind]

BPF is putting up a late fight, leading in 3 and won in 3.

Where do you see that?  NDTV has them ahead in zero and ECI has them ahead in 1.

https://www.news18.com/assembly-elections-2021/assam/alliance-wise-tally-results/

Wow, I guess with ECI being very slow the stringers from different media houses are coming out with very different results.

[jaichind]

This reminds me of the 2019 Thailand election.  The official system was way behind leaving to different media houses to report fairly different results.  It took days to figure what the real result were.

[eos]

This reminds me of the 2019 Thailand election.  The official system was way behind leaving to different media houses to report fairly different results.  It took days to figure what the real result were.

ECI is way behind news media. I don't know if this is normal, or Covid has affected their work.

[jaichind]

This reminds me of the 2019 Thailand election.  The official system was way behind leaving to different media houses to report fairly different results.  It took days to figure what the real result were.

ECI is way behind news media. I don't know if this is normal, or Covid has affected their work.

This is clearly COVID-19.  By this time usually ECI has all the votes in. Right now it seems they only have around 40% of the vote in the ECI website.  Clearly there are way more votes counted then what they are showing in their website.

[jaichind]

After 16 rounds, AITC CM Mamata Banerjee leading by 820 votes in Nandigram.  This is neck-to-neck and down to the wire.

Now it seems she lost from Nandigram? What is going on? This is a complete mess.

[jaichind]

It seems ECI announced AITC CM Mamata Banerjee as the winner in Nandigram then changed it to have her losing to AITC rebel and now BJP incumbent Suvendu Adhikari as the winner.  AITC is demanding a recount.