India 2021 assembly elections - TN, Kerala, WB, Assam, and perhaps J&K

[jaichind]

I constructed the Assam vote share chart.  Since both UPA and NDA had friendly fights I listed out them out separately without summing them.

Overall if you add up the NDA parities and their rebels (BJP AGP UPPL SGS) Greater NDA has a vote share of 46.03%.  If you add up the UPA parties and their rebels (INC AIUDF BPF CPM CPI CPI(ML)(L) AGM RJD MMADS) Greater UPA has a vote share of of 45.17%.  So the gap between the two blocs are around 1%.  Given the maldistribution the UPA vote in heavy Muslim districts this is enough to translate into a 75 to 50 seat lead.

AGP is clearly the weak link in NDA with UPPL doing better than expected.  On the UPA side AIUDF did very well with INC and BPF underperforming, especially BPF.

                            Contest         Win        Vote share      Vote share
                                                                               (in seats contested)
BJP                           93              60            33.60%         46.22% (tactical alliance with AGP UPPL)

AGP                          29               9              8.00%          33.28% (tactical alliance with BJP)

UPPL                        13                6              3.43%          41.16% (tactical alliance with BJP)

BJP rebel                  13                0              0.81%            7.75%
AGP rebel                   1                0              0.06%            9.36%

SGS                           1                0              0.14%         19.72% (BJP ally but ran 1 candidate)

INC+                     113               34            34.76%                      (tactical alliance with AIUDF)
INC                         95               29            30.01%         39.90%
BPF                         12                 4             3.43%          38.28%
CPM                          2                 1             0.85%          45.87%
AGM                          1                0              0.15%          23.53%
CPI                           1                 0              0.14%         17.61%
CPI(ML)(L)                 1                0              0.11%         21.07%
RJD                           1                 0             0.07%          10.38%

AIUDF                    20               16               9.40%         54.18% (tactical alliance with INC+)

INC rebel                 5                 0               0.45%         10.64%
AIUDF rebel              5                0               0.52%         12.78%

MMADS                    1                 0               0.04%          5.73% (Muslim)

AJP                        82                 0                3.70%         5.69% (tactical alliance with RD)

RD                        20                  1               1.25%          7.29% (tactical alliance with AJP)

ASDC                      3                  0               0.08%          4.29% (Left Tribal)
ASDC-Ind                1                  0               0.06%          7.17%

APHLC                     4                  0               0.30%        10.72% (Tribal)

[jaichind]

In Assam the BJP clearly had a surge in tribal support.  BJP was already pretty strong with the tribal vote but had a further surge this election.  A look at the 5 Assam tribal seats gives one the idea how the tribal vote went by comparing them in 2016 and 2021

2016 (Assam hill tribal seats)
            Contest     Win     Vote share
BJP           5            4          43.54%
INC           5            1         36.98%
ASDC        4            0         16.88% (Left tribal)


2021  (Assam hill tribal seats)
            Contest     Win     Vote share
BJP           5            5          54.38%
INC           5            0         29.42%
ASDC        4            0           4.22% (Left tribal)
APHLC       4            0           8.77% (Tribal)

BJP's level of support rose 4% overall from 2016 to 2021 based on anti-Muslim Hindu consolidation but the BJP surge in tribal areas was above 10%.  I think part of this are anti-Bengali Muslim hostility from tribal concerned about Bengali Muslim immigration but also they increasing see BJP as the natural party of governance and source of subsidies.  

This trend seems to be consistent with the shift of the Gorkha  vote in WB toward the BJP    A similar chart on the 3 Gorkha seats in WB in 2016 and 2021 also shows the surge of the BJP

2016 (Gorkha  areas)
                    Win       Vote share
GJM                3            56.22% (allied with and support by BJP)
AITC-JAP         0            34.84%
CPRM              0             6.05% (local Communist party backed by CPM)


After 2019 the dominate GJM broke with BJP and allied with AITC which along its own vote share in Gorkhaland should given GJM a easy sweep here just like 2016.  BJP instead formed an alliance with CPRM.   Then GJM split into two factions and the Gorkha tribal vote have swung toward to the BJP gave the BJP wins 2 seats due to the split of the GJM.  AITC high command in theory backed GJM (Gurung)  but in practice local AITC factions split and with some backing GJM (Gurung)  and others GJM (Tamang).  Still the only way the BJP was able to take advantage of this only due to the surge in BJP support in Gorkha areas.

2021 (Gorkha areas)
                              Win     Vote share
BJP                           2        39.99%  (backed by CPRM)
GJM (Tamang)           1        33.30%  (backed by parts of AITC)
GJM (Gurung)            0        20.98%  (backed by parts of AITC)
CPM-INC                   0          1.26%

[jaichind]

In Puducherry it seems BJP relents and backs AIRNC leader N. Rangaswamy become CM.  This will be the 4th time N. Rangaswamy will become CM.  He was INC CM in 2001 and 2006 but was removed by INC high command in 2008.  In 2011 he bolted from INC and formed AIRNC winning the 2011 assembly elections in an AINRC-AIADMK alliance to become CM again.  AIRNC's breakup with AIADMK for 2016 assembly election led to INC-DMK coming to power.  In 2021 he formed an alliance with BJP and AIADMK to win 2021 assembly elections and become CM again.

Note that this AINRC-BJP government is de facto another INC faction government.  BJP did not really exist in Puducherry until recently when its ranks were swelled by INC defectors looking to become CM themselves. So the new AIRNC-BJP government will be run almost all INC defectors as AINRC is an INC splinter and BJP are all recent INC defectors.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

In Puducherry it seems BJP relents and backs AIRNC leader N. Rangaswamy become CM.  This will be the 4th time N. Rangaswamy will become CM.  He was INC CM in 2001 and 2006 but was removed by INC high command in 2008.  In 2011 he bolted from INC and formed AIRNC winning the 2011 assembly elections in an AINRC-AIADMK alliance to become CM again.  AIRNC's breakup with AIADMK for 2016 assembly election led to INC-DMK coming to power.  In 2021 he formed an alliance with BJP and AIADMK to win 2021 assembly elections and become CM again.

Note that this AINRC-BJP government is de facto another INC faction government.  BJP did not really exist in Puducherry until recently when its ranks were swelled by INC defectors looking to become CM themselves. So the new AIRNC-BJP government will be run almost all INC defectors as AINRC is an INC splinter and BJP are all recent INC defectors.

so these people are "fair-weather" BJPers who can't really be counted on to have undying loyalty to the party?

[eos]

In Puducherry it seems BJP relents and backs AIRNC leader N. Rangaswamy become CM.  This will be the 4th time N. Rangaswamy will become CM.  He was INC CM in 2001 and 2006 but was removed by INC high command in 2008.  In 2011 he bolted from INC and formed AIRNC winning the 2011 assembly elections in an AINRC-AIADMK alliance to become CM again.  AIRNC's breakup with AIADMK for 2016 assembly election led to INC-DMK coming to power.  In 2021 he formed an alliance with BJP and AIADMK to win 2021 assembly elections and become CM again.

Note that this AINRC-BJP government is de facto another INC faction government.  BJP did not really exist in Puducherry until recently when its ranks were swelled by INC defectors looking to become CM themselves. So the new AIRNC-BJP government will be run almost all INC defectors as AINRC is an INC splinter and BJP are all recent INC defectors.

so these people are "fair-weather" BJPers who can't really be counted on to have undying loyalty to the party?

No, I don't think this type of leader is beholden to the BJP brand or ideological platform. They will go along as long as they think the BJP is their vehicle to gain public office. The situation is a bit similar to Assam, where long-time BJP/RSS cadres have been dwarfed by INC defectors. There are some jokes about the Assam BJP being "Modi's Congress".

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Another thing I noticed - Assam is 34% Muslim, yet the NDA won around 3/5 of seats.
Did they win a higher-than-normal % of the Muslim vote?

[eos]

Another thing I noticed - Assam is 34% Muslim, yet the NDA won around 3/5 of seats.
Did they win a higher-than-normal % of the Muslim vote?

Muslims are concentrated in lower Assam, Barak Valley, and parts of Central Assam. NDA swept Upper Assam, where Muslims are negligible outside of 1 district.

Upper Assam/North Assam
NDA 39
UPA 9
OTH 1

Central Assam
NDA 12
UPA 7

Barak Valley
NDA 6
UPA 9

Lower Assam
NDA 18
UPA 25

Muslims votes are divided between AIUDF, a predominantly Muslim party, and INC. Bengali-speaking Muslims lean AIUDF, while Assamese speaking Muslims and some Bengali speaking Muslims vote INC. Bengali speaking Muslims number 6 million, while Assamese speaking Muslims are approximately 4 million.

INC's dilemma is that without an alliance with AIUDF, the Muslim votes get divided, allowing NDA to squeeze ahead in three-cornered fights. On the other hand, the NDA is typically successful in moblising the Hindu electorate on religious lines through the spectre of Muslim population growth, and, or, the presence of the AIUDF in a INC led government. In Upper Assam, this has proven particularly effective, propelling the NDA to victory.

[jaichind]

https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/local-factors-determine-electoral-outcomes-in-states/article34475075.ece

"Local factors determine electoral outcomes in States"

More data on CSDS post-election survey.  There is clearly a more pro-incumbent sentiment than in 2016 except for TN

[jaichind]

With leads or winners in all UP Zila Panchyat (3047 out of 3050)

It is neck to neck between BJP and SP.  BSP has recovered in the later rounds.  If various indpendent media sources are to believed OTH has a bunch of RLD (SP ally) and pro-INC independents.

BJP - 768
SP - 759
BSP - 369
INC - 80
OTH - 1071



BTW, the scale of this election and the number of candidate was massive. It seems around a dozen of winners have already passed away from COVID-19.

[jaichind]

time for an AITC member to resign to let Mamata to run in a by-election?

Mamata Banerjee will be sworn in Wed in her 3rd term as CM.  I checked, WB does not have a Legislative Council which means the only route is for an AITC MLA to resign and for Mamata Banerjee to re-enter via by-election.  This has to take place within 6 months of her being sworn in. 

Shibu Soren, who is the father of current Jharkhand CM Hemant Soren became CM twice, in 2008 and 2010, but had to resign both times after 6 months after he lost a by-election in both cases.  In Mamata Banerjee's case I am sure this would not be a problem.

[jaichind]

https://www.india.com/viral/up-panchayat-election-2021-result-bride-leaves-wedding-varmala-collect-victory-certificate-winning-bdc-seat-takes-saat-pheras-on-returning-viral-photos-4638235/?fbclid=IwAR3n-NhS3vOvBpoAD-W3WibRy9Vi6Up9XCWB87z4uGoJ3D8ZP5EgZTpKS3Y

"UP Bride Leaves Wedding Ceremony Midway to Get Her Victory Certificate After Winning BDC Seat | See Pics"

Funny UP Panchyat  election story where a bride winner was so excited at winning that she left her wedding to pick up her victory certificate.

[jaichind]

so these people are "fair-weather" BJPers who can't really be counted on to have undying loyalty to the party?

No, I don't think this type of leader is beholden to the BJP brand or ideological platform. They will go along as long as they think the BJP is their vehicle to gain public office. The situation is a bit similar to Assam, where long-time BJP/RSS cadres have been dwarfed by INC defectors. There are some jokes about the Assam BJP being "Modi's Congress".

The joke about "Modi's Congress" also extends to Uttarakhand.  When the BJP swept back into power in the 2017 Uttarakhand assembly elections, the number of INC rebels that found themselves as BJP candidates were so large that the Uttarakhand BJP was also called "Modi's Congress."

[jaichind]

In Assam the results went mostly as expected with NDA outperforming in marginal seat due to Hindi consolidation.  The big miss from my point of view was in Bodoland where I expected BPF to sweep and instead UPPL-BJP holding the upper hand.

Before the election in Assam I expected NDA to win for sure at least 51 seats (BJP 44 AGP 7) while I expected UPA to win at least 46 seats (INC 25 AIUDF 14 BPF 7).   I had 29 seats where I can see them going either way but I expected UPA to win more of them due to anti-incumbency giving UPA a narrow win.

The result of my project were:

BJP 44 -> BJP won all 44
AGP 7 -> AGP won all 7
INC 25 -> INC won 22 AIUDF won 2 BJP won 1 -> I got two heavy Muslim INC vs AIUDF seats wrong but from an UPA point of view it did not matter, I missed 1 INC seat due to it seems, an unusually weak INC candidate
AIUDF 14 -> AIUDF won all 14
BPF 7 -> BPF won 4 and UPPL won 3 -> I got Bodoland wrong

Tossup 29 -> BJP won 15, AGP won 2, UPPL won 3, INC won 7, CPM 1, RD 1 -> NDA won most of the Tossups due to Hindu consolidation

But the big miss for me was messing up Bodoland.  It seems that a good part of the Bodo vote along with non-Bodo Hindu's consolidated around NDA in reaction to BPF-AIUDF alliance.

2016 Bodoland results

                Contest   Won     Vote share
BPF              12         12         40.36%  (backed by BJP and tactically AGP)

AGP               1           0          1.60%

AGP rebel      1            0          2.34%

BPF rebel       2            0          2.21%

INC               8            0        10.53% (tactical alliance with UPPL)

UPPL           11            0        17.24%

AIUDF           7            0        11.67%
 
PCDR            2            0          2.80% (proto SGS) (non-Bodo Hindus)

SJAM            2            0          2.75% (proto SGS) (non-Bodo Hindus)


2021 Bodoland results

                Contest   Won     Vote share
BJP               4           2        12.37% (tactical alliance with UPPL)

UPPL            11          6       38.32% (tactical alliance with BJP)

SGS               1          0         1.52% (backed NDA in other seats)

BPF             12          4        38.28%  (backed by INC and AIUDF)

AIUDF rebel   1          0          0.54%

AJP               2          0          0.76% (tactical alliance with RD)

RD                2          0         1.38% (tactical alliance with AJP)

Going seat by seats it seems clear that the AIUDF and INC successfully shifted most of their Muslim base to BPF but in reaction part of the BPF Bodo base shifted to UPPL-BJP and the non-Bodo Hindu vote consolidated around UPPL-BJP.  The scale of the UPPL-BJP victory could have  been even greater had the UPPl-BJP alliance was an complete one versus a tactical one.

[jaichind]

UP Zila Panchyat counting continues.  Now there are trends from all seats.  SP overtakes BJP by a good margin.  It is claimed at a bunch of the Others are pro-INC independents (on the order of ~100).  If so SP and INC outperformed while BJP and BSP underperformed.  

[eos]

so these people are "fair-weather" BJPers who can't really be counted on to have undying loyalty to the party?

No, I don't think this type of leader is beholden to the BJP brand or ideological platform. They will go along as long as they think the BJP is their vehicle to gain public office. The situation is a bit similar to Assam, where long-time BJP/RSS cadres have been dwarfed by INC defectors. There are some jokes about the Assam BJP being "Modi's Congress".

The joke about "Modi's Congress" also extends to Uttarakhand.  When the BJP swept back into power in the 2017 Uttarakhand assembly elections, the number of INC rebels that found themselves as BJP candidates were so large that the Uttarakhand BJP was also called "Modi's Congress."

There are now reports of a conflict in the Assam BJP over the CM Post. Both Sarbananda Sonowal and Himanta Biswa Sarma held separate meetings with their supporters. Some of the more fanciful reports say HBS and 30-40 MLA's threatened to quit the party if he does not get CM post. Seems quite unlikely at this stage, but I wouldn't be surprised to see this is a genuine negotiating tactic. HBS and many of his proteges, especially former INC defectors, have no loyalty to BJP, Modi, or Hindutva.

[eos]

Indian movie star Kangana Ranaut, infamous for her provocative support of BJP and Narendra Modi on twitter, had her account suspended. Ranaut made this tweet in reaction to post-election violence in WB, with TMC cadres allegedly persecuting BJP cadres.

"this is horrible...we need super gundai [thuggery] to kill gundai..she [Mamata Banerjee] is like an unleashed monster, to tame her Modi Ji please show your Virat roop [masterly form] from early 2000's...#PresidentRuleinBengal

Many people think Ranaut is probably alluding to allegations of Modi's complicity in the pogrom against Muslims in Gujarat in 2002. Although Ranaut enjoyed the support of Hindi nationalists on social media, many are now upset with her for alluding to Modi's alleged role as a fact.

[eos]

UP Zila Panchyat counting continues.  Now there are trends from all seats.  SP overtakes BJP by a good margin.  It is claimed at a bunch of the Others are pro-INC independents (on the order of ~100).  If so SP and INC outperformed while BJP and BSP underperformed.  

Quite surprised with this result. Do you think the pandemic played a role?

[eos]

In Assam the results went mostly as expected with NDA outperforming in marginal seat due to Hindi consolidation.  The big miss from my point of view was in Bodoland where I expected BPF to sweep and instead UPPL-BJP holding the upper hand.

Before the election in Assam I expected NDA to win for sure at least 51 seats (BJP 44 AGP 7) while I expected UPA to win at least 46 seats (INC 25 AIUDF 14 BPF 7).   I had 29 seats where I can see them going either way but I expected UPA to win more of them due to anti-incumbency giving UPA a narrow win.

The result of my project were:

BJP 44 -> BJP won all 44
AGP 7 -> AGP won all 7
INC 25 -> INC won 22 AIUDF won 2 BJP won 1 -> I got two heavy Muslim INC vs AIUDF seats wrong but from an UPA point of view it did not matter, I missed 1 INC seat due to it seems, an unusually weak INC candidate
AIUDF 14 -> AIUDF won all 14
BPF 7 -> BPF won 4 and UPPL won 3 -> I got Bodoland wrong

Tossup 29 -> BJP won 15, AGP won 2, UPPL won 3, INC won 7, CPM 1, RD 1 -> NDA won most of the Tossups due to Hindu consolidation

But the big miss for me was messing up Bodoland.  It seems that a good part of the Bodo vote along with non-Bodo Hindu's consolidated around NDA in reaction to BPF-AIUDF alliance.

2016 Bodoland results

                Contest   Won     Vote share
BPF              12         12         40.36%  (backed by BJP and tactically AGP)

AGP               1           0          1.60%

AGP rebel      1            0          2.34%

BPF rebel       2            0          2.21%

INC               8            0        10.53% (tactical alliance with UPPL)

UPPL           11            0        17.24%

AIUDF           7            0        11.67%
 
PCDR            2            0          2.80% (proto SGS) (non-Bodo Hindus)

SJAM            2            0          2.75% (proto SGS) (non-Bodo Hindus)


2021 Bodoland results

                Contest   Won     Vote share
BJP               4           2        12.37% (tactical alliance with UPPL)

UPPL            11          6       38.32% (tactical alliance with BJP)

SGS               1          0         1.52% (backed NDA in other seats)

BPF             12          4        38.28%  (backed by INC and AIUDF)

AIUDF rebel   1          0          0.54%

AJP               2          0          0.76% (tactical alliance with RD)

RD                2          0         1.38% (tactical alliance with AJP)

Going seat by seats it seems clear that the AIUDF and INC successfully shifted most of their Muslim base to BPF but in reaction part of the BPF Bodo base shifted to UPPL-BJP and the non-Bodo Hindu vote consolidated around UPPL-BJP.  The scale of the UPPL-BJP victory could have  been even greater had the UPPl-BJP alliance was an complete one versus a tactical one.

Which one seat you had INC winning that BJP ended up winning?

I think INC should have also won the following seats:

Upper/North Assam: Lakhimpur, Teok, Amguri
Central Assam: Barhampur
Barak Valley: Patharkandi

[eos]

In Assam, INC state president and RS MP Ripun Bora ended up losing by 29000 votes in Gohpur, in central Assam. He claimed responsibility for the UPA's defeat and tendered his resignation to Sonia Gandhi. Bora played a major role in organising the alliance with the AIUDF despite misgivings of some other top INC leaders.

INC's leader in the Assam assembly, Debabrata Saikia, narrowly retained his family bastion of Nazira in Upper Assam by less than 1000 votes. The seat has been held almost continuously by the Saikia family since 1967, with Debrabrata Saikia's father, Hiteshwar Saikia, twice serving as CM of Assam. Debabrata Saikia's position as leader of the opposition is under threat.

The leading contenders for new Assam president seem to be LS MP's Gaurav Gogoi, and Pradyut Bordoloi. The leader of the opposition has to be from the assembly though. Gogoi is in pole position. Despite the pro-BJP trend in Upper Assam, the INC registered its strongest regional performance in Titabor, represented by his late father and former CM Tarun Gogoi. The INC candidate was a non-entity, but the party held on to its support from 2016. Some people say INC would have done much better in Upper Assam if Gogoi had been projected as UPA's CM candidate.

[jaichind]

There are now reports of a conflict in the Assam BJP over the CM Post. Both Sarbananda Sonowal and Himanta Biswa Sarma held separate meetings with their supporters. Some of the more fanciful reports say HBS and 30-40 MLA's threatened to quit the party if he does not get CM post. Seems quite unlikely at this stage, but I wouldn't be surprised to see this is a genuine negotiating tactic. HBS and many of his proteges, especially former INC defectors, have no loyalty to BJP, Modi, or Hindutva.

There are sources that since the election Sarbananda Sonowal and Himanta Biswa Sarma have not spoken to each other which means a power struggle is clearly going on.  Still with Modi as the main vote getter for BJP in the end they will have to abide by what Modi decides.  In the meantime I am sure both sides will be up to all sorts stuff to undermine each other.

[jaichind]

Which one seat you had INC winning that BJP ended up winning?

I think INC should have also won the following seats:

Upper/North Assam: Lakhimpur, Teok, Amguri
Central Assam: Barhampur
Barak Valley: Patharkandi

The seat I thought the INC was going to win for sure but the BJP won instead was Patharkandi.

I can see why you thought INC was going to win Lakhimpur given the AGP incumbent and the BJP was in a friendly fight but I had it as a tossup since it was not clear how much BJP-AGP tactical voting will take place. 

As for Teok and Amguri I assumed you thought AGP will underperform.  I was not as such are about how big that would be ergo I had them as tossups.  Barhampur I assume it was about the Prafulla Mahanta factor.  But with Prafulla Mahanta not actively helping INC I was not sure that the INC would win.

[jaichind]

UP Zila Panchyat counting continues.  Now there are trends from all seats.  SP overtakes BJP by a good margin.  It is claimed at a bunch of the Others are pro-INC independents (on the order of ~100).  If so SP and INC outperformed while BJP and BSP underperformed.  

Quite surprised with this result. Do you think the pandemic played a role?

The voting took place before the COVID-19 surge so I do not think it place that much of a role. SP actually won Hindu holy sites and BJP strongholds Ayodhya, Varanasi & Mathura.  Varanasi  is Modi's seat.  What took place is anti-incumbency against the BJP is finally catching up also local "out groups" are venting their anger.   In 2022 Yogi Adityanath will have to nationalize the race like BJP in Assam to win as these results show if the election were fought as a pure confederation of local issues and races the BJP will be in trouble.  Most likely Yogi Adityanath will find a way to pull it off.

[jaichind]

In Assam, INC state president and RS MP Ripun Bora ended up losing by 29000 votes in Gohpur, in central Assam. He claimed responsibility for the UPA's defeat and tendered his resignation to Sonia Gandhi. Bora played a major role in organising the alliance with the AIUDF despite misgivings of some other top INC leaders.

INC's leader in the Assam assembly, Debabrata Saikia, narrowly retained his family bastion of Nazira in Upper Assam by less than 1000 votes. The seat has been held almost continuously by the Saikia family since 1967, with Debrabrata Saikia's father, Hiteshwar Saikia, twice serving as CM of Assam. Debabrata Saikia's position as leader of the opposition is under threat.

The leading contenders for new Assam president seem to be LS MP's Gaurav Gogoi, and Pradyut Bordoloi. The leader of the opposition has to be from the assembly though. Gogoi is in pole position. Despite the pro-BJP trend in Upper Assam, the INC registered its strongest regional performance in Titabor, represented by his late father and former CM Tarun Gogoi. The INC candidate was a non-entity, but the party held on to its support from 2016. Some people say INC would have done much better in Upper Assam if Gogoi had been projected as UPA's CM candidate.

I think looking at what took place in WB and Assam in retrospect the INC should have tried to put up a CM candidate even though it went against INC conventions.  In WB with AITC aggressively pushing AITC CM Mamata Banerjee as the face of AITC and trying to fight an election as is Mamata Banerjee is the AITC candidate in every district the BJP was forced to run a campaign against Mamata Banerjee and was less able to push a narrative that AITC was being propped up by the Muslim vote.

In Assam without a INC CM face the BJP was able to effectively push INC = AIUDF = Bengali Muslims = Bangladesh = ISIS versus forcing the BJP to run against the INC CM candidate who clearly will not be Muslim.   Main problem with this strategy though is the way the INC ran the campaign was the only way they could have run it given the factionalized nature of the Assam INC.

[jaichind]

It seems like these are the results of UP Zila Panchyat  elections

SP         747
BJP        666
BSP       322
INC         77
Others 1238

Based on various media reports and various partisan claims it seems under Others are

at least 110 pro-INC independents
RLS around 80
AAP around 80
AIMIM 23

[jaichind]

I constructed TN results chart.  I broke out parties that ran on AIADMK and DMK symbols but are in reality independent parties.

AMMK+ totally underperformed.  AMMK leader TTV Dhinakaran lost the seat he was contesting.
 DMDK at 1.70% of the vote in seats contested is a shockingly low number given where it was in 2009-2011 when it was able to command around 10% of the TN vote.  MNM also underperformed.  On the other hand Tamil nationalist NTK at 6.63% is a total overperformance.    

All this explains why the mega DMK+ landslide did not come.  AMMK+ failed to eat into the AIADMK vote while NTK clearly ate into the anti-BJP vote hurting DMK+.  The result was a solid DMK+ victory but not a massive victory.  The turning point of the election based on these results was former AIADMK leader and now de facto AMMK leader Sasikala retiring from politics and de facto endorsing AIADMK to stop DMK.  That consolidate the AMMK splinter vote back toward the AIADMK and saved the AIADMK from a landslide defeat.

                            Contest         Win        Vote share      Vote share
                                                                               (in seats contested)
DMK+                      234            159           45.72%
DMK                        173            125           35.37%          47.41%
INC                           25              18             4.31%          41.63%
CPI                             6               2              1.10%          43.66%
MDMK                         6               4              1.06%          41.32%  (DMK splinter)
VCK                            6               4              1.00%          42.75%  (Dalit)
CPM                            6               2              0.85%         35.48%
KMDK                         3               1              0.52%          39.18% (Kongu Nadu regionalist)
IUML                          3               0               0.48%         38.66% (Muslim)
MMK                           2              2               0.40%          44.33% (Thevar caste)
TVK                            1               1              0.20%          47.92% (PMK splinter, Vanniyars caste)
ATP                            1               0               0.14%         31.57% (Dalit)
MVK                           1               0               0.14%         34.78% (Dalit)
AIFB                           1              0               0.14%         30.16%


AIADMK+               234              75             40.01%
AIADMK                 179              65             32.20%         41.34%
PMK                        23                5               3.83%         37.92% (Vanniyars caste)
BJP                         20                4               2.64%         34.53%
TMC(M)                    6                 0               0.64%         29.83% (INC splinter)
PBK                         1                 1               0.18%         49.08% (Dalit)
MMK                        1                 0               0.16%        38.12% (Thevar caste)
PTMK                       1                 0               0.11%        25.29% (Nadar caste)
AIMMK                     1                 0               0.09%         23.96% (Thevar caste)
PDK                         1                 0               0.09%         26.37% (Thevar caste)
TMMK                       1                0               0.07%         25.46% (Devendrakula caste)
 
AMMK+                228                 0               2.81%
AMMK                  161                 0               2.32%           3.38% (AIADMK splinter)
DMDK                   60                  0               0.44%           1.70%
Minor allies             7                   0               0.05%

MNM+                 225                  0               2.75%
MNM                   143                  0               2.39%           3.88%
IJK                       38                  0               0.09%            0.51%
AISMK                  32                  0               0.19%           1.56% (AIADMK splinter)
TMJK                      9                  0               0.07%           2.08% (Muslim)
JD(S)                     3                  0               0.01%           0.87%

NTK                   234                  0               6.63%                      (Tamil nationalist)

2021 TN elections ended up being a clone of 2006 TN assembly elections.  

2006 TN assembly elections

                     Contest           Seats         Vote share    
DMK+              234                163            44.75% (included INC PMK CPM CPI)

AIADMK+         234                 69            40.06% (included MDMK VCK JD(S))

DMDK              232                  1               8.38%

BJP                  225                 0                2.02%

where NTK is the new DMDK

2004 LS saw DMK+ win a massive landslide and everyone expected 2006 to be a massive DMK+ landslide.   In the end it was a significant DMK+ victory but not a landside.    We seems to be seeing the same patter with 2019 LS elections and 2021 assembly elections.