India 2021 assembly elections - TN, Kerala, WB, Assam, and perhaps J&K

[jaichind]

ECI Assam count (mostly done)

One caveat is that there are a bunch of friendly fights between BJP and AGP as well as UPPL.
NDA vote share lead is now 0.36%.  That there are heavy Muslim districts always meant that UPA will have to beat NDA by a couple of percentage points to win.  In this case they missed.

          Vote share         Won/leading
NDA    44.20%                74
BJP       32.63%                 59
AGP        8.11%                  9
UPPL      3.46%                   6

UPA     43.84%               51
INC       29.56%                30
AIUDF     9.38%                16
BPF         3.52%                 4
CPM        0.87%                 1
AGM        0.15%
CPI         0.15%
CPI(ML)   0.14%
RJD         0.07%

AJP-RD                           1

[jaichind]

ECI WB count (mostly done) too lazy to compute ISF vote share


            vote share        won/leading
AITC         47.95%              213

NDA         38.21%                77
BJP             38.11%               77
AJSU             0.10%

LF+           8.39%                1
CPM             4.71%
INC             2.95%
AIFB           0.53%
CPI             0.20%
ISF                                      1

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

ECI WB count (mostly done) too lazy to compute ISF vote share


            vote share        won/leading
AITC         47.95%              213

NDA         38.21%                77
BJP             38.11%               77
AJSU             0.10%

LF+           8.39%                1
CPM             4.71%
INC             2.95%
AIFB           0.53%
CPI             0.20%
ISF                                      1

Is it normal for such a big numerical advantage in seats to be derived from a vote lead in single digits?
Was the AITC vote unusually efficient?

[jaichind]

ECI TN count - still some way to go.

Given the vote share gap of 4.5% I expect DMK+ seat count to get up to 170 or so.

                  vote share        won/leading
AIADMK+     39.87%                 77
AIADMK          33.28%                69
PMK                 3.96%                  4
BJP                  2.63%                  4

DMK+         45.29%                157
DMK               37.54%              132
INC                 4.04%                 17
CPI                 1.27%                  2
VCK                1.11%                  4
CPM                0.79%                  2
IUML               0.54%

[jaichind]

ECI WB count (mostly done) too lazy to compute ISF vote share


            vote share        won/leading
AITC         47.95%              213

NDA         38.21%                77
BJP             38.11%               77
AJSU             0.10%

LF+           8.39%                1
CPM             4.71%
INC             2.95%
AIFB           0.53%
CPI             0.20%
ISF                                      1

Is it normal for such a big numerical advantage in seats to be derived from a vote lead in single digits?
Was the AITC vote unusually efficient?

WB tends to have fairly uniform swings.  These sort of seat breakdown are pretty consistent with vote share gaps of this size

1996                  Vote share      Seats
Left Front            49.32%         203
INC+                  40.13%           86

2001                  Vote share     Seats
Left Front            48.98%         199
AITC-INC             39.52%          89

2011                  Vote  share    Seats
AITC-INC             48.08%        226
Left Front            41.05%          62

[xelas81]

For the Lok Sabha by elections YSRCP won Tirupati (Andhra Pradesh), BJP won Belgaum (Karnataka), IMUL won Malappuram (Kerala) and INC won Kanniyakumari (Tamil Nadu)

[jaichind]

ECI Puducherry count (all done)

INC really underperformed.  AINRC could end up roping in a bunch of the rebel winners to augment its numbers.

                Vote Share             Seats
NDA           43.65%                 16
AINRC          25.85%                 10
BJP              13.66%                   6
AIADMK         4.14%                   0

AINRC rebel                             3
AIADMK rebel                           1

UPA           37.84%                   9
INC             15.71%                   2
DMK            18.51%                   6
CPI               0.90%
VCK              0.67%
IND              2.05%                   1

INC rebel                                1

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The Communists being wiped out in West Bengal isn't the main story (of course) but is nevertheless historically significant. Not that it is a surprise given the defection of battalion after battalion of CPM cadres to the BJP* with colours unfurled, of course, Stalinists for Hindutva being very much a thing.

[jaichind]

For the Lok Sabha by elections YSRCP won Tirupati (Andhra Pradesh), BJP won Belgaum (Karnataka), IMUL won Malappuram (Kerala) and INC won Kanniyakumari (Tamil Nadu)

Most of them were expected.  Belgaum was a big scare for BJP

In 2019 Belgaum it was

BJP    63.2%
INC   30.0%  (with JD(S) support)

Now

BJP    43.07%
INC    42.56%
MES   11.45%   (local party fight for merger of Belgaum with Maharashtra)

[jaichind]

It seems AITC CM Mamata Banerjee successfully applied a jujutsu counter move on the BJP strategy.  BJP's strategy as a dual move to consolidate anti-Muslim and anti-AITC votes behind the BJP and hoping the Muslim vote would be split between AITC and Left Front-INC-ISF.  BJP bolstered its case by orchestrating a bunch of AITC defections to the BJP to project itself as a viable alternative to AITC in order to rope in the Left Front Hindu vote.   Mamata Banerjee saw this danger and decided to contest Nandigram against her former aide and AITC rebel turn BJP incumbent Suvendu Adhikari in his bastion.  Her message was that she can take on and beat the BJP+AITC rebel anywhere and anytime.  Her message was provoke a boomerang effect on the BJP strategy to projecting AITC as the only force that can and will stop the BJP.  By doing this Mamata Banerjee provoked a Muslim consolidation around AITC as well as to rope in the anti-BJP vote.

[jaichind]

There seems to be signs of hostility between Bodo and Muslims in parts of Bodoland that have higher concentration of Muslims that clearly hurt the BPF ability to pull in the Bodo vote.

2016  Gossaigaon
BPF        32.3%  (with BJP-AGP support)
AIUDF    28.0%
INC        22.8%   
UPPL      12.7%

2021  Gossaigaon
BPF               45.2% (with INC-AIUDF support)
UPPL             38.6% (with BJP-AGP support)
AIUDF Rebel     5.9%


2016 Kokrajhar West
BPF        46.1% (with BJP-AGP support)
AIUDF    33.7%
UPPL      13.3% (with INC support)

2021 Kokrajhar West
BPF        49.7% (with INC-AIUDF support)
UPPL      41.9% (with BJP-AGP support)


2016 Kokrajhar East
BPF        56.3% (with BJP-AGP support)
UPPL      26.8% (with INC support)
AIUDF     9.3%

2021 Kokrajhar East
UPPL      54.1% (with BJP-AGP support)
BPF        41.1% (with INC-AIUDF support)


2016 Kalaigaon
BPF       35.9% (with BJP support)
AIUDF   22.5%
AGP      18.5%
UPPL       8.6%
INC         7.9%

2021 Kalaigaon
BPF       41.1% (with INC-AIUDF support)
BJP        36.3% (with AGP support)
UPPL      11.4%


2016 Majbat
BPF      43.9% (with BJP-AGP support)
AIUDF   20.1%
INC      18.7%
UPPL      8.0%

2021 Majbat
BPF      42.3% (with INC-AIUDF support)
BJP      29.8% (with AGP support)
UPPL    22.1%

It is clear that a good part of the BPF Bodo vote shifted away from BPF due to BPF alliance with AIUDF while the AIUDF vote was mostly, but not totally, shifted to BPF.

[jaichind]

A superficial glance at district by district results in Kerala seems to indicate that there is a bloc of LDF-UDF swing voters that tactically voted LDF this time around to stop BJP.  This batch of voters voted for UDF in 2019 LS elections since having Rahul Gandhi running in Kerala made it clear that in Kerala it was the UDF that will do well ergo the tactical vote shifted to UDF adding to the landslide. 

This time around it seems there was no anti-incumbency against the LDF government plus the LDF government was scene as being effective in the 2020-2021 in dealing with COVID-19.  As a result the tactical vote shifted to LDF making a small LDF victory into a significant one even as BJP was shut out and lost its only seat it won in 2016.

[jaichind]

Since Kerala is done counting I was able to construct the vote share chart.

INC and RSP are the weak link in UDF.  It seems KEC(M) has a slight edge over its splinter the reconstructed  KEC(Joseph) by winning 5 seats vs 2 for KEC(Joseph) even as KEC(Joseph) won a greater vote share per seat contested.  This reflects that some of KEC(M) opponents are the weaker non-KEC(Joseph) UDF parties while KEC(Joseph) had to face the stronger non-KEC(M) LDP parties leading to a better strike rate for KEC(M).  I wonder if post-election JKC might merge back into KEC(M) now that both are in LDF.

LDF splinters NCK(from NCP) and RMPI(from CPM) ending up being fairly useful for UDF. What killed off UDF was how poor INC did in direct battles versus CPM.  The CPM wave was so strong that even IUML lost a couple of its strongholds to the CPM.

In 2016 it was LDF 43.37%   UDF 38.81%    NDA 15.01%

So it was NDA that lost ground to LDF and UDF with LDF gaining more.

                            Contest         Win        Vote share      Vote share
                                                                               (in seats contested)
LDF                         140             99             45.50%
CPM                          75             62             25.50%       47.22%
CPI                           23             17              7.62%        45.70%
KEC(M)                     12               5              3.30%        41.25%
JD(S)                         4               2               1.28%        45.34%
NCP                           3               2               0.99%        46.04%
LJD                            3               1               0.93%       43.58%
INL                            3               1               0.67%        33.59% (IUML splinter)
NSC                           1               1               0.34%        46.44% (IUML splinter)
RSP(L)                       1               1               0.33%        43.38% (RSP splinter)
KEC(B)                      1               1               0.32%        49.26%
C(S)                          1               1               0.29%        45.15% (INC splinter)
JKC                           1               1               0.24%        38.33% (KEC(M) splinter)
Ind-CPM                  11               4                3.41%        42.08%
Ind-CPI                     1                0               0.27%        38.93%
 
KJ(S)                        1                0               0.20%        29.99%

UDF                      140               41             39.59%
INC                        93               21             25.24%        38.07%
IUML                      25               15              8.31%         45.40%
KEC(Joseph)           10                 2              2.67%         40.66%
RSP                         5                 0              1.18%         33.50%
NCK                        2                  1              0.55%         38.16%  (NCP splinter)
KEC(Jacob)             1                  1               0.41%         54.18%
RMPI                       1                 1               0.31%         47.75%  (CPM splinter)
CMP(J)                    1                 1               0.25%         34.19%  (CPM splinter)
Ind-IUML                 2                 0               0.67%         38.82%

NDA                    139                 0             12.57%
BJP                      113                0             11.19%         13.77%
BDJS                     21                 0              1.11%           7.64% (Ezhava based)
KKC                        1                 0              0.09%          11.79% (INC splinter)
JRS                         1                 0              0.07%           9.14%  (Dalit based)
AIADMK                  1                 0               0.05%          6.86%
DSJP                      1                  0              0.03%           4.32%  (Nair based)
Ind-AIADMK            1                 0               0.02%          4.10%

T20K                      8                 0               0.70%         13.47% (private welfare organization)

[jaichind]

ECI Assam count (done) (NOTA not filtered out)

In the end NDA vote share exceeded UPA by around 1% which was enough for it to get a 75-50 seat lead given the wasted votes in heavy Muslim seat.  One caveat is that there are a bunch of friendly fights between BJP and AGP as well as UPPL.

          Vote share         Won/leading
NDA    44.51%                75
BJP       33.21%                 60
AGP        7.91%                  9
UPPL      3.39%                   6

UPA     43.68%               50
INC       29.67%                29
AIUDF     9.29%                16
BPF         3.39%                 4
CPM        0.84%                 1
AGM        0.14%
CPI         0.14%
CPI(ML)   0.14%
RJD         0.07%

AJP-RD                           1

[jaichind]

ECI Puducherry count (all done)

INC really underperformed.  AINRC could end up roping in a bunch of the rebel winners to augment its numbers.

                Vote Share             Seats
NDA           43.65%                 16
AINRC          25.85%                 10
BJP              13.66%                   6
AIADMK         4.14%                   0

AINRC rebel                             3
AIADMK rebel                           1

UPA           37.84%                   9
INC             15.71%                   2
DMK            18.51%                   6
CPI               0.90%
VCK              0.67%
IND              2.05%                   1

INC rebel                                1

It seems BJP, despite winning 6 seats vs 10 for AINRC, is demanding the CM position.  There will now be a rush between BJP and AINRC to win support from other parties and independents.  Both AINRC and BJP will try to get the 5 independents to join up with them to increase their numbers.  I can see AINRC just forming and alliance with DMK and dumping BJP to secure the CM position.  I can also see AINRC and BJP both trying to break INC and lure their 2 MLAs to merge into their party.
 Plenty of games to be played in the days ahead.

[jaichind]

This chart is counting the GJM (Tamang) as part of the AITC alliance.  This is sort of true.  GJM had split into GJM (Tamang) and GJM (Gurung) factions in Gorkhaland and AITC was always unclear which faction they backed with the local AITC split on on which faction they actually backed.  This split threw 2 out of 3  in Gorkhaland to the BJP but GJM (Tamang) did win one.

[jaichind]

WB map 2019 vs 2021.  2019 on the left and 2021 on the right.  Orange - BJP, Green - AITC, Blue - INC.  Heavy Muslim areas in Northern WB shifted to AITC based on consolidation of the Muslim vote behind AITC.

[jaichind]

TN and Kerala maps

[jaichind]

Also on Sunday counting started on UP Zila Panchayat elections.  These elections are seen as sort of a semi-final for the 2022 UP assembly elections.  The count is very slow.

So far out of 3050 seats across UP 2008 has been counted

BJP     702
SP      504
BSP    132
INC      62
AAP      20
Others 588

Part of Others are also some RLD members elected. RLD is running as a SP ally.  



Overall these results show fairly strong performance for SP-RLD and INC and a weak showing for BSP.  I am sure AAP numbers are from the parts of UP right next to Delhi where AAP have some influence.  Also the results are not so great for BJP although I suspect a lot of the independents art part of Others are pro-BJP independents.

INC shows it has pockets of influence and that perhaps a SP-RLD-INC alliance in 2022 assembly elections could create some trouble for BJP.  SP's image with Upper Castes are not as negative as it was in 2017 and some of the INC upper caste base could be amenable to voting SP if SP does form an alliance with INC unlike 2017.

[jaichind]

Lastest UP Zila Panchayat Elections

2357 out of 3050 results out

BJP - 699
SP - 689
BSP - 266
INC - 66
Others - 637 ( 110 of which are pro-INC)

SP and INC are outperforming.

[jaichind]

Cartoon on how AITC CM Mamata Banerjee strategy of contesting difficult to win Nandigram actually shifted more attention to her struggle against the BJP machine and provoked an anti-BJP consolidation in WB.

[jaichind]

In UP  Zila Panchayat Elections with 2419 out of 3050 results released SP overtakes BJP.  Harbinger of 2022 UP assembly elections?

[jaichind]

The Communists being wiped out in West Bengal isn't the main story (of course) but is nevertheless historically significant. Not that it is a surprise given the defection of battalion after battalion of CPM cadres to the BJP* with colours unfurled, of course, Stalinists for Hindutva being very much a thing.

Too bad the exit polls (which were mostly off anyway) did not do ideological based breakouts but I suspect it they did I think it would show that the BJP won a plurality of Marxists.

[jaichind]

 UP  Zila Panchayat Elections. BJP retakes the lead.

[jaichind]

Tamulpur’s BPF candidate withdrew his candidature in the presence of Hiamnta Biswa Sarma. He will support the UPPL candidate. Basumatary was missing since the early morning.

https://twitter.com/atanubhuyan/status/1377280450910035971

The result here ended up being

UPPL   47.48%
BPF     28.09% (Basumatary)
Ind       8.66% (Bodo background)

I suspect a lot of BPF voters dispersed their vote, mostly to the unknown independent with a Bodo background, versus voting for BPF's  Basumatary.  Based on how other Bodoland voting went it seems UPPL was going to win here no matter what so I am not sure the BJP's effort to get  Basumatary to defeat was worth it in retrospect.