India 2021 assembly elections - TN, Kerala, WB, Assam, and perhaps J&K

[jaichind]

https://www.sentinelassam.com/national-news/disquiet-in-bjp-big-concern-for-party-bjp-leadership-in-bengal-537594

"Disquiet in BJP big concern for party BJP leadership in Bengal"

Rumours doing the rounds inside BJP circles that many of its 77 MLAs and 18 MPs in West Bengal are reportedly in touch with the Trinamool Congress leadership, looking for ways to defect, are creating a strong sense of disquiet within the party, which many feel may be hard to negotiate.

It seems a lot of 2019 LS and 2021 assembly AITC to BJP defectors did so with the premise that BJP will win the 2021 WB assembly elections.  Now that is not true some of them might defect back.  Of course this is not easy as this means they will have to resign and run for re-election as AITC candidate.  Not sure if the local AITC cadre will be so hot on this given their previous betryal.

[jaichind]

Using the Modi's INC I decided to restate the WB results chart for the NDA part.

Namely I broke out the 291 BJP candidates into

50 AITC defectors: Modi's AITC
14 Left Front defectors: Modi's Left Front
6 INC defectors: Mod's INC
3 GJM defectors: Modi's GJM
17 VIPs (mostly actors and other celebrates) that BJP recruited to run: Modi's VIP
1 GNLF candidate that ran on BJP ticket
130 with BJP background who either ran for office before or are leaders: BJP-Leaders
70 rest (mostly novices from either BJP or other backgrounds: BJP-Rest

Various media sources before the election reported that around 140 out of 291 BJP candidates were imports which would imply that around 50 out of 70 of the BJP-Rest do not have BJP background and around 20 are BJP background but not leadership roles (most likely party workers).
 
Overall Modi's AITC and Modi's Left Front did achieve a greater vote share rate than BJP-Leaders and for sure BJP-Rest.    It BJP-Rest are mostly seats where BJP have no real organization ergo the need to go with candidate without real political experience regardless if the person has a BJP or some other background so it makes sense BJP-Rest has the worst vote share rate.  Still even those seats BJP won 12 out of 70 which shows the power of anti-AITC consolidation.

This chart does show that up to 14 BJP MLAs which AITC background, and potentially the 8 with Left Front background, are now vulnerable to defect to AITC.

                            Contest         Win        Vote share      Vote share
                                                                               (in seats contested)
AITC+                     289            213            48.53%
AITC                       288            213            48.47%          49.04%
Ind.                           1                0              0.06%          17.73%

GJM (Tamang)            3                1              0.28%          33.30% (backed by part of AITC)
GJM (Gurung)             3                0             0.17%           20.98% (backed by part of AITC)

NDA                       292              77            38.65%
Modi's AITC              50               14              6.94%          41.03%
Modi's Left Front       14                8               2.11%          42.57%
Modi's INC                 6                1               0.75%          38.20%
Mod's GJM                 3                2               0.39%           44.47%
Modi's VIP               17                 4              2.16%           38.19%
BJP-Leaders           130               35            17.97%           39.95%
BJP-Rest                 70                12              8.10%          33.72%
GNLF                         1                1              0.12%           41.50%
AJSU                         1                0              0.10%           30.37%

Left Front               179                0              5.74%                       (tactical alliance with INC ISF)
CPM                       137               0               4.75%            9.98%
AIFB                        21               0               0.54%            7.46%
CPI                          10               0               0.20%            5.57%
RSP                         10               0               0.21%            6.40%
MFB                          1                0              0.04%           11.43%

INC                        91                 0              2.96%             9.83% (tactical alliance with Left Front ISF)

ISF                       32                  1               1.37%          12.20% (tactical alliance with INC Left Front)

[jaichind]

A good part of India now in some sort of lockdown.  This will have an impact on economic growth.

[jaichind]

https://www.newindianexpress.com/states/tamil-nadu/2021/may/08/eps-ops-argue-over-election-of-leader-of-opposition-post-2299892.html

"EPS, OPS argue over election of Leader of Opposition post"

Now that AIADMK has been defeated but not comprehensively, AIADMK current leadership of EPS-OPS due seems likely to stay on for now.  EPS and OPS are now fighting for how will become Leader of Opposition post which is a proxy war for control of AIAMDK.  Given how AIADMK outperformed the most dire projections were based on outperforming in EPS's home region of Kongu Nadu this seems like a fight EPS is destined to win.

[jaichind]

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/coronavirus-worry-within-bjp-rss-over-covid-handling-electoral-impact-sources-2438545

"Worry Within BJP, RSS Over Covid Mismanagement, Electoral Impact: Sources"

Anger over the scale of devastation in the fierce second wave of Covid and its impact on Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government has caused deep disquiet in the ranks of the ruling BJP and its ideological mentor Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), sources say.

https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/700-govt-school-staff-died-on-poll-duty-up-teachers-body-writes-to-cm-ec-101619812988669.html

"700 govt school staff died on poll duty: UP teachers’ body writes to CM, EC"

"http://At least 700 state government school employees on panchayat poll duty succumbed to Covid in Uttar Pradesh this month, the state teachers’ union said on Friday, underlining the risk of flouting Covid norms during a devastating surge in infections."

It seems that as the second COVID-19 surge continues there are signs of impact on BJP's popular support.  The good news for Modi/BJP is that as long as the J&K assembly election gets delayed to 2022 as it now seems likely the BJP will not have a significant election to fight until the Spring of 2022 (Goa, Manipur, Punjab, Uttarakhand, UP assembly elections).  This means there will be time for Modi to get COVID-19 second wave and likely third wave under control by then and hope the impact on BJP can be minimized.

[jaichind]

https://www.indiatoday.in/coronavirus-outbreak/story/bjp-mla-bairia-surendra-singh-cow-urine-gaumutra-to-stop-covid19-on-camera-1800129-2021-05-08

"BJP MLA recommends drinking cow urine to stop Covid spread, demonstrates on camera"

As Covid-19 cases continue to surge across India, a Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) MLA in Uttar Pradesh has called on people to drink 'gaumutra' (cow urine) to defeat Covid-19. Surendra Singh, MLA from Bairia in Ballia district, has also put up a video of himself drinking cow urine.

This UP BJP MLA is not the first nor will he be the last Hindi belt politician that will advocate for drinking cow urine for health reasons.  But with India under the microscope from the world media due to the current COVID-19 surge this is not the type of news BJP needs in the news right now for international media to consume.  In the past most urban middle class voters will mostly laugh this sort of story off even while this type of move tends to gain the politician votes in rural areas.   To do something like this in the middle of a crisis will drive middle class urban votes away from BJP.

[jaichind]

In Puducherry the pro-UPA independent elected in Yanam with 49.24% of the vote over AINRC's 47.36% have joined BJP.  The big BJP buy out of the various independents have begun.  The 3 AINRC rebels, 1 AIADMK rebel and 1 INC rebels will be next.  If the BJP can get all of them then BJP can get to 12 MLA vs 10 MLA for AINRC.  In Puducherry the center gets to nominate 3 MLAs (part of the unique state constitution for Puducherry when it was formed as a union territory back in the 1950s.  All 3 will be obviously pro-BJP.  So that means BJP can get to 15 MLAs to AINRC's 10 MLAs, DMK's 6 MLAs, and INC's 2 MLAs.  All BJP then have to do is to break DMK (sort of hard) and INC (easy) then in a few months the BJP can move toward a majority government in Puducherry with a BJP CM.  
 

[jaichind]

In WB, so far one AITC winner and MLA has already passed away due to COVID-19.  2 BJP MPs that contested and and won will not take their seats.  There are 2 seats where the election was countermanded due to death of a candidate for COVID-19.  So that leaves up to 5 seats where there will be a by-election that Mamata Banerjee can contest and win within 6 months.  Main problem is due to COVID-19 surge ECI will take their time to schedule the by-election and Mamata Banerjee might miss the 6 month deadline. 

[jaichind]

https://theprint.in/opinion/politricks/bjp-has-now-fully-embraced-the-congress-culture-assam-saga-is-the-latest-example/656772/

"BJP has now fully embraced the Congress culture. Assam saga is the latest example"

The Bharatiya Janata Party has managed in just seven years what the Congress achieved in 70 — a high command culture. The recent week-long drama to pick the new chief minister in Assam shows exactly how the BJP under Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union Home Minister Amit Shah operates.

I pointed this out before: That the mega BJP landslides created by Modi has created a high command culture in BJP just like the Indira Gandhi landslide victories created a high command culture in INC.

[jaichind]

Modi's approval moving downward although I suspect this sample overweighs urban educated voters which are the group that will turn against Modi due to the COVID-19 second wave

[jaichind]

In Puducherry the pro-UPA independent elected in Yanam with 49.24% of the vote over AINRC's 47.36% have joined BJP.  The big BJP buy out of the various independents have begun.  The 3 AINRC rebels, 1 AIADMK rebel and 1 INC rebels will be next.  If the BJP can get all of them then BJP can get to 12 MLA vs 10 MLA for AINRC.  In Puducherry the center gets to nominate 3 MLAs (part of the unique state constitution for Puducherry when it was formed as a union territory back in the 1950s.  All 3 will be obviously pro-BJP.  So that means BJP can get to 15 MLAs to AINRC's 10 MLAs, DMK's 6 MLAs, and INC's 2 MLAs.  All BJP then have to do is to break DMK (sort of hard) and INC (easy) then in a few months the BJP can move toward a majority government in Puducherry with a BJP CM.  
 

AINRC leader Rangaswamy is still CM but 3 independents have announced support to BJP while 1 independent has joined AINRC.  BJP also has control of the 3 nominated MLAs.  So now the  Puducherry assembly is

BJP: 6+3+3 = 12
AINRC : 10 +1 = 11
DMK : 6
INC : 2
Independents : 2

On paper it is an AINRC-BJP government but if the BJP gets the other 2 independents on board they might be ready to act to take over by going after INC and AINRC MLAs.  I can see Rangaswamy potentially preventively trying to dump BJP and try to get DMK and INC to join his government to prevent a possible BJP offensive to take over.

[AussieB]

I've read somewhere that some in the UPA are thinking about proposing Banerjee as a candidate for PM to run against Modi. Is that possible?

[jaichind]

I did some analysis on how the BJP strategy of running imported candidates (Modi's AITC, Modi's INC etc etc) worked out.

I broke out the BJP candidates into the following groups
Modi's AITC - 51 - leaders or previous candidates with AITC background
Modi's VIP - 17 - mostly famous actors/media personalities with no political experience
Modi's Left Front - 14 - leaders or previous candidates with Left Front background
Modi's INC - 6 - leaders or previous candidates with INC background
Experienced BJP 133 - pervious BJP candidates or those with BJP leadership experience
No experience - 66 - either low level BJP works or imports with no political experience

And then compare the election results in 2016 vs 2021


Modi's AITC (51)
                                   2021                                                    2016
                     Contest    Win   Vote share                    Contest    Win   Vote share
AITC                  51        36       48.03%                        51         40       47.20%
BJP                    51        15       41.17%                        51           1        9.95%
Left Front           29          0        5.33%                        32           1       23.91%
INC                    18         0         2.47%                        19           9       16.08%
ISF                      4         0         0.97%



Modi's VIP (17)
                                   2021                                                    2016
                     Contest    Win   Vote share                    Contest    Win   Vote share
AITC                  17        13       48.52%                       17          14        48.29%
BJP                    17         4       38.19%                        17           0        10.42%
Left Front           13          0        9.84%                        15           3        33.48%
INC                      4         0        1.60%                          2           0          5.51%



Modi's Left Front (14)
                                   2021                                                    2016
                     Contest    Win   Vote share                    Contest    Win   Vote share
AITC+                14          6       43.98%                       14          11      46.10%
BJP                    14          8       42.57%                       14           0         9.48%
Left Front           10          0        6.94%                        14           3       38.84%
INC                     3          0         3.61%                         1           0        1.50%
ISF                      2          0        0.77%



Modi's INC (6)
                                   2021                                                    2016
                     Contest    Win   Vote share                    Contest    Win   Vote share
AITC+                 6          5       48.15%                          6           3      42.68%
BJP                     6          1       38.20%                          6           0      11.03%
Left Front            2          0         3.51%                          3           2      19.61%
INC                     3          0         5.05%                         3           1       23.21%
ISF                     1          0         3.04%



Experienced BJP (133)
                                   2021                                                    2016
                     Contest    Win   Vote share                    Contest    Win   Vote share
AITC                133        98       48.75%                       133        91       45.10%
BJP                  133        35       39.76%                       133          2       11.43%
Left Front           83         0         5.57%                       102         16       28.14%
INC                   43          0         2.92%                        42         24       11.81%
ISF                    11         0         0.62%



No Experience (66)
                                   2021                                                    2016
                     Contest    Win   Vote share                    Contest    Win   Vote share
AITC                  66        54       51.57%                        66        49       46.30%
BJP                    66        11       33.62%                        66          0         8.53%
Left Front           39          0        5.55%                         47         8        27.84%
INC                    17         0         3.21%                        22          9       14.22%
ISF                    14         1         3.63%


It is clear that the AITC VIP and Left Front imports overperformed for the BJP relative to those BJP candidates with experience or other no experienced candidates.   It was the Left Front imports which outperformed the most.  In retrospect the BJP should have focused more in getting more Left Front defectors to run for BJP relative to AITC and INC defectors.

[jaichind]

I've read somewhere that some in the UPA are thinking about proposing Banerjee as a candidate for PM to run against Modi. Is that possible?

There are some noises out of INC to that effect.  Not sure if that really represents what the Gandhi clan thinks.  Most likely this is some maneuver by INC to project flexibility on PM post incase of an anti-Modi   alliance win in return for favorable seat sharing agreements in critical states where INC is weak (TN, UP, WB, Bihar etc etc.)  In the end the INC would support a non-INC PM candidate only if a) they think 2024 cannot be won anyway or b) some sort of post election deal to keep out Modi/Shah.

[eos]

25 arrested in Delhi for posters criticising Modi on the government's handling of the pandemic.

https://www.thehindu.com/news/cities/Delhi/many-held-over-posters-questioning-pm-modi/article34564288.ece

https://www.ndtv.com/delhi-news/12-arrested-over-posters-against-pm-modi-in-delhi-sources-2442279

[jaichind]

I did some analysis how each sub region in Assam swung relative to 2016 in response to the INC-AIUDF alliance and emerge of anti-CAA parties like AJP-RD.  I came up with my own categories.

1) Barak Valley-Hindu (6 seats): Bengali speaking region not dominated by Muslims
2) Barak Valley-Muslim (9 seats) Bengali speaking region heavy Muslim parts
3) Hills (5 seats): Tribal areas
4) Bodo-Hindu (8 seats): Bodoland areas that does not have a large Muslim minority
5) Bodo-Muslim (4 seats): Bodoland areas that has a large Muslim minority
6) Lower Assam-Muslim (22 seats): Muslim heavy areas of Lower Assam
7) Lower Assam-Hindu (16 seats): Parts of Lower Assam that are not Muslim heavy
8 ) Upper Assam-Hindu (49 seats): Parts of Upper Assam (includes Northern Assam) that are not Muslim heavy
9) Upper Assam-Muslim (7 seats): Parts of Upper Assam (includes Northern Assam) that are Muslim heavy

Barak Valley-Hindu (6 seats)
                                          2021                                              2016
                            Contest    Win   Vote share                Contest  Win   Vote share
BJP                            6         6        53.29%                     6          5        48.26%
BJP rebel                    3         0         4.37%                      
INC                            6         0       40.01%                     6          1         35.99%                  ​
AIUDF                                                                            4          0         11.36%
AJP                            4         0         0.52%

AIUDF shifted their vote to INC but the Hindus consolidated around BJP in response and took a seat from INC.


Barak Valley-Muslim (9 seats)
                                          2021                                              2016
                            Contest    Win   Vote share                Contest  Win   Vote share
BJP                            8          0        35.60%                    9          3        31.03%
BJP Rebel                   3          0          1.31%
AGP                           2          0          5.03%                    1          0         0.54%
INC                            5          4       23.64%                    9          2        26.08%
INC rebel                                                                        2          0         4.80%
AIUDF                        5          5       28.64%                    9           4       33.02%
AJP                            2          0         0.23%
RD                             1          0         2.21%

In 2016 it was a 3 way battle between BJP-AGP INC and AIUDF so the BJP was able to win 3 seats.  With INC-AIUDF alliance in 8 out of 9 seats they swept all 9 seats.  BJP-AGP gained vote share from Hindu consolidation but it was not enough.  The one RD candidate here is really an AIUDF rebel.



Hills (5 seats)
                                          2021                                              2016
                            Contest    Win   Vote share                Contest  Win   Vote share                        
BJP                           5           5       54.38%                      5        4        43.54%
INC                           5           0       29.42%                      5        1        36.98%
AIUDF                                                                              1        0          0.47%
ASDC+                      4           0        4.22%                       5        0        17.38%
APHLC                      4            0        8.77%

After the 2016 win tribal vote shifted toward BJP due to CAA and also BJP control of necessary federal and state subsidies.  A good part of the INC infrastructure went over to the BJP.  As a result the BJP gained a large swing and took the one INC seat from 2016.



Bodoland-Hindu (8 seats)
                                          2021                                              2016
                            Contest    Win   Vote share                Contest  Win   Vote share    
BPF-NDA                                                                           8        8        40.90%
BJP                           2           2       10.58%
AGP Rebel                                                                         1        0         3.57%
BPF Rebel                                                                         2         0         3.36%
UPPL                         7          6       42.99%                       7         0       20.59%
PCDR                                                                                2        0         4.27%
SJAM                                                                                1         0        4.20%
GPS                         1           0         2.31%
BPF-UPA                  8            0       34.68%
INC                                                                                  5        0         9.72%
INC Rebel                                                                         1        0         1.27%
AIUDF                                                                              3         0        3.91%
AJP                         1            0        0.89%
RD                          1            0        1.88%
BGP                        1            0        0.69%                        1         0         2.77%

PCDR SJAM GPS and BGP are all non-Bodo Hindu outfits.  AIUDF and INC shifted their base to BPF but there was a Bodo and non-Bodo Hindu consolidation behind UPPL-BJP who swept all the seats taking all 8 from BPF which lost a good part of their Bodo vote to UPPL-BJP.  The one RD candidate is the 2016 SJAM candidate and took some of the 2016 SJAM vote with him.



Bodoland-Muslim (4 seats)
                                          2021                                              2016
                            Contest    Win   Vote share                Contest  Win   Vote share    
BPF-NDA                                                                          4         4       39.34%
BJP                          2           0         15.82%
AGP                                                                                 1         0        4.65%
UPPL                        4           0         29.35%                     4         0      10.85%
BPF-UPA                   4           4         45.22%
INC                                                                                 3          0      12.09%
AIUDF                                                                             4          0      26.47%
AIUDF Rebel             1           0          1.58%
AJP                          1           0          0.50%
RD                           1           0          0.44%

Just like in Bodoland-Hindu seats BPF lost a good part of their Bodo vote to UPPL-BJP but gained the large Muslim base of AIUDF-INC to help them retain their 4 seats.  That UPPL-BJP could only from an alliance in 2 out of the 4 seats also helped the BPF.  



Lower Assam-Muslim (22 seats)
                                          2021                                              2016
                            Contest    Win   Vote share                Contest  Win   Vote share    
BJP                           10         0       10.60%                     13        3        12.27%
AGP                          12         0       17.06%                      9         1        11.00%
INC                          15        13       36.36%                    22       12        35.06%
INC Rebel                   2          0        0.31%                      9         0          7.12%
AIUDF                      12          9       29.66%                    22         6        28.11%
AIUDF Rebel               2          0        0.60%                      3         0          0.68%
AJP                          13          0        0.55%
RD                             5          0        1.41%

In 2016 it was BJP-AGP vs INC vs AIUDF leading to BJP-AGP winning 4 seats.  This time around with INC-AIUDF forming an alliance in 17 out of the 22 seat it was enough for them to sweep these set of seats despite some Hindu vote shift to BJP-AGP in response.  The decline of INC and AIUDF rebels shows the determination of the Muslim vote here to consolidate to defeat BJP.  One of the RD candidates which got a large vote share is a Muslim with an AGP/INC background.



Lower Assam-Hindu (16 seats)
                                          2021                                              2016
                            Contest    Win   Vote share                Contest  Win   Vote share
BJP                          14         11       48.72%                    12       12        44.01%
AGP                          2           2         8.16%                      5        4         15.12%
BJP Rebel                  2           0         0.83%                      4        0           1.31%
AGP Rebel                                                                        2         0          0.87%
BPF Rebel                                                                         2        0           1.52%
INC                         14          2       26.12%                     16        0         26.95%
INC Rebel                                                                         5        0          1.56%
CPM                          2          1        5.95%                        4        0          1.84%
AIUDF                       1          0        0.04%                        6        0          2.43%
AJP                         12          0        6.42%
RD                            4         0         0.60%

In 2016 INC AIUDF and CPM ran separately and as a result BJP-AGP swept these seats.  This time around AIUDF withdrew and INC-CPM was able to gain 3 seats.  While there were some Hindu consolidation around BJP-AGP in response to the INC-AIUDF alliance it seems BJP-AGP lost a bunch of its Assamese Hindu vote toe AJP-RD which helped INC-CPM in gaining these 3 seats.  Of course you can argue that had AJP-RD not run most of these votes would have gone to INC-CPM.  The decline of BJP AGP and INC rebels shows the scale of polarization.



Upper Assam-Hindu (49 seats)
                                          2021                                              2016
                            Contest    Win   Vote share                Contest  Win   Vote share
BJP                           42        36       45.49%                    39       31        39.39%
BJP Rebel                   3          0         0.53%                     23        0          2.48%
AGP                           9          7         6.67%                     11        9          9.59%
AGP Rebel                  1          0         0.17%                      5         0          0.52%
SGS                                                                                 4         1          2.29%
INC                          45         5        34.81%                     49        8        36.11%
INC Rebel                   1         0         0.35%                       7        0          0.95%
AGM                          1          0         0.41%
CPI                            1         0          0.40%                    12         0         0.46%
CPI(ML)                     1          0         0.32%                      6         0         0.26%
RJD                           1          0         0.20%
CPM                                                                                7          0         0.45%
AIUDF                                                                           18          0         3.63%
AJP                          43        0          6.90%
RD                            7         1          1.45%

In 2016 due to local resentment at BJP-AGP alliance there were large scale BJP and AGP rebellions.  This time around due to INC-AIUDF alliance with AIUDF standing down there was a clear Hindu consolidation behind BJP-AGP despite INC forming an alliance with Left parties.  SGS is a tribal party that de facto merged into BJP.  AJP-RD seems to have eating up INC Assamese Hindu vote than from BJP-AGP.  As a result despite AIUDF transferring its vote INC lost 3 of its seats from 2016 with BJP gaining 2 from INC and RD gaining the other.  



Upper Assam-Muslim (7 seats)
                                          2021                                              2016
                            Contest    Win   Vote share                Contest  Win   Vote share
BJP                            4          0       9.75%                       5         2         19.17%
BJP Rebel                   1          0       3.28%                       2         0           0.32%
AGP                           3          0     10.48%                       3         0           3.64%
AGP Rebel                                                                       1         0           0.91%
INC                           5          5      33.81%                       7         2         31.24%
INC Rebel                  1          0        3.46%                       2         0          6.63%
AIUDF                       2          2      22.78%                       7         3         35.80%
AIUDF Rebel              2          0        5.40%
AAMSU                      1          0        3.97%
AJP                           6          0        1.88%
RD                           1           0        1.45%

In 2016 it was BJP-AGP vs INC vs AIUDF and as a result BJP was able to win 2 seats.  This time around with INC-AIUDF alliance they were able to sweep these seats despite some INC and AIUDF rebels.  AAMSU is a Muslim outfit.  It seems there were some shift of Hindu votes to BJP-AGP in response to INC-AIUDF alliance but BJP-AGP also lost some Assamese Hindu votes to AJP-RD.  The decline of INC rebels again showed clear signs of Muslim consolidation in order to defeat BJP.


All in all, in Muslim areas things went according to script for INC-AIUDF.   But in Bodoland-Hindu seats the scale of anti-Muslim voting by Bodo and non-Bodo Hindu voters was much higher than UPA would have voted.  In Hindu areas of Lower and Upper Assam there were Muslim consolidation behind UPA and expected Hindu consolidation behind NDA but it seems AJP-RD ate into Assamese Hindu votes that UPA had expected to get.  

[jaichind]

I did some regional analysis of TN results to find out what prevented the AIADMK+ meltdown that some polls and the 2019 LS assembly segment leads were projecting a total NDA wipeout.  



What I found was
a) AIADMK CM EPS enduring strength in his home region of Kongu Nadu was a factor
b) BJP and PMK had pockets of support which were transferred to AIADMK
c) NTK ate up some of the anti-BJP vote hurting DMK+
d) AIADMK was able to pick off some DMK allies where the DMK base was not completely transferred to its allies.
e) Most of DMDK+ front on 2016 had joined DMK+ and mostly transferred their votes over to DMK+
f) MNM+ underperformed and hence helped DMK+
g) AMMK+ totally bombed and helped AIADMK+. AMMK+ did well only in places where one of the two main candidates are not from a Dravidian party which all things equal hurt DMK+ more than AIADMK+

First the 5 regions of TN: Tondai Nadu, Nadu Naadu, Kongu Nadu, Kongu Nadu, Chola Nadu, and Pandya Nadu


The Vanniyar caste which PMK is based on are numerous in the Nothern regions of Tondai Nadu,  Nadu Naadu and Northern parts of Kongu Nadu.
The BJP have pockets of strength in Kongu Nadu and Pandya Nadu while INC is fairly strong in Pandya Nadu.  Pandya Nadu is the region where the Dravidian parties (AIADMK, DMK, MDMK) are relatively weaker.

Based on this I split TN in the following zones to try to get a sense of the impact of all the factors I mentioned.

Tondai Nadu-Regular: (39 seats): Parts Tondai Nadu where PMK is not strong
Tondai Nadu-PMK: (26 seatss): Parts of Tondai Nadu where PMK is strong
Nadu Naadu: (20 seats): PMK is pretty much strong here across the board
Kongu Nadu-Regular: (40 seats): Parts of Kongu Nadu where PMK and BJP are not strong
Kongu Nadu-PMK (7 seats): Parts of Kongu Nadu where PMK is strong
Kongu Nadu-BJP (10 seats): Parts of Kongu Nadu where BJP is strong
Chola Nadu (41 seats)
Pandya Nadu-Non-Dravidian: (25 seats): Not all Dravidian contests (one of the two major bloc candidates are not Dravidian (AIADMK DMK MDMK))
Pandya Nadu-Dravidian: (26 seats):  All Dravidian contests AIADMK vs DMK-MDMK


Tondai Nadu-Regular: (39 seats)

                                         2021                                                     2016
                   Contest     Won    Vote       Contest              Contest     Won    Vote       Contest
                                            share    Vote share                                      share    Vote share
DMK+             39          36    49.57%                               39           22     42.86%  
DMK               35          33    44.93%    50.32%                31           22     35.44%    44.46%
INC                  3           3       3.58%    43.10%                 5             0       4.90%    36.97%
Minor               1           0       1.07%                                 3             0       2.53%

AIADMK+      39            3      33.93%                              39            17     40.89%
AIADMK        29            2      28.10%   35.63%                38            17     40.04%   40.99%
PMK               3             0       1.90%   25.44%
BJP                3             0       1.47%   25.94%
Minor             4             1       2.46%                                1             0        0.85%

PMK                                                                               39             0        4.50%

BJP+                                                                             39              0        3.43%

DMDK+                                                                         39              0        4.85%

AMMK+         37          0        1.09%

MNM+          38           0        5.74%

NTK              39          0        8.07%                              39               0       1.47%

These seats had a DMK+ lean in 2016 and with the swing toward DMK+ plus relatively fewer PMK and BJP votes to transfer to AIADMK+ these seats are a landslide for DMK+ despite MNM+ and NTK performing well which prevented a complete AIADMK+ wipeout.




Tondai Nadu-PMK: (26 seats)

                                         2021                                                     2016
                   Contest     Won    Vote       Contest              Contest     Won    Vote       Contest
                                            share    Vote share                                      share    Vote share
DMK+             26          17    49.57%                               26           13     37.63%  
DMK               19          14    34.93%    47.00%                22           13     32.36%    38.65%
INC                  2           1       3.42%    44.30%                 4             0       5.27%    32.42%
VCK                 3           2       4.43%     41.04%
Minor               2           0       2.86%                                

AIADMK+      26            9      44.18%                              26            13     37.53%
AIADMK        17            7      29.45%   46.06%                25            13     36.12%   37.43%
PMK               9             2     14.73%   40.86%
BJP                
Minor                                                                              1             0        1.41%

PMK                                                                               26             0      15.80%

BJP+                                                                             26              0        0.86%

DMDK+                                                                         26              0        4.93%

AMMK+         26          0        2.10%

MNM+          26           0        1.09%

NTK              26          0        5.42%                              25               0       0.46%

The PMK successfully transferred most of their their vote to AIADMK preventing a AIADMK+ landslide defeat and holding DMK+ to minor gains despite DMK+ outperforming in 2016 in this batch of seats.  Note that AIADMK did not get to transfer all their votes to PMK.  Dalit based VCK are strong here and are hostile to Vanniyar's which helped the DMK+ by shifting anti-Vanniyar Dalit votes to DMK+.




Nadu Naadu: (20 seats)

                                         2021                                                     2016
                   Contest     Won    Vote       Contest              Contest     Won    Vote       Contest
                                            share    Vote share                                      share    Vote share
DMK+             20          14    47.50%                               20           11     47.10%  
DMK               14          11    34.95%    49.74%                17           11     32.91%    38.54%
INC                  2           1       4.17%    38.48%                 1             0       1.02%    22.75%  ​
VCK                 2           1       4.03%    44.00%
Minor               2           1       1.07%      4.35%                2              0       2.53%

AIADMK+      20            6      42.62%                              20              9     35.02%
AIADMK        13            5      29.90%   45.23%                ​20              9     35.02%    35.02%
PMK               5             1       9.80%   39.86%
BJP                2             0       2.92%   31.40%
Minor            

PMK                                                                              20             0       12.62%

BJP+                                                                             20              0        0.55%

DMDK+                                                                         20              0       10.95%

AMMK+         20          0        2.57%

MNM+          19           0        0.75%

NTK             20          0         4.74%                             ​ 20               0         0.83%

Just like Tondai Nadu-PMK seats the large PMK vote transfer to AIADMK prevented a complete DMK+ sweep in a block of seats that had a DMK+ lean and VCK anti-Vanniyar Dalit vote helping DMK+.  Also it seems AIADMK was not able to transfer all its vote to PMK.



Kongu Nadu-Regular: (40 seats)

                                         2021                                                     2016
                   Contest     Won    Vote       Contest              Contest     Won    Vote       Contest
                                            share    Vote share                                      share    Vote share
DMK+             40          18    44.57%                               40           13     41.93%  
DMK               28          14     32.86%   46.15%                34           11     35.59%    41.87%
INC                  3           2       2.71%    43.02%                 6             2       6.34%    42.27%
Minor               9           2       9.01%                                

AIADMK+      40          22      44.53%                              40            27     44.30%
AIADMK        34          21      39.59%   46.08%                39            26     43.15%    44.26%
PMK               1             0       0.39%   13.24%
BJP                4             1       3.79%   41.42%
Minor             1             0       0.76%                                1             1        1.15%

PMK                                                                              40              0        2.12%

BJP+                                                                             40              0        2.06%

DMDK+                                                                         40              0        5.14%

AMMK+         40          0        0.98%

MNM+          40           0        2.36%

NTK              40          0        5.53%                              39               0       0.86%

In this bloc of seats AIADMK could not count on large vote transfers from PMK nor BJP but due to the favorite son effect of AIADMK CM EPS was able to retain a small edge over DMK+.  DMK was able to rope in regionalist KMDK to even the odds a bit.




Kongu Nadu-PMK: (7 seats)

                                         2021                                                     2016
                   Contest     Won    Vote       Contest              Contest     Won    Vote       Contest
                                            share    Vote share                                      share    Vote share
DMK+              7            0     38.50%                                 7            0     31.27%  
DMK                6            0     32.88%    39.12%                  5            0     22.62%    31.25%
INC                 1            0       5.62%     35.24%                 2            0       8.65%    31.32%
Minor                                      

AIADMK+        7            7     52.80%                                7             7      42.16%
AIADMK          5            5      39.76%   55.04%                 7             7      42.16%    42.16%
PMK                2            2     13.04%   46.98%
BJP                
Minor              

PMK                                                                               7              0      18.25%

BJP+                                                                              7              0        0.75%

DMDK+                                                                          7              0        3.56%

AMMK+           7          0        0.66%

MNM+            7           0        1.70%

NTK               7          0         4.34%                               7               0       0.63%

This bloc of seats leaned heavy for AIADMK and has large PMK strength.  The combination of the AIADMK and PMK blocks meant a continued sweep for AIADMK+ despite DMK+ gaining some vote share from 2016.




Kongu Nadu-BJP: (10 seats)

                                         2021                                                     2016
                   Contest     Won    Vote       Contest              Contest     Won    Vote       Contest
                                            share    Vote share                                      share    Vote share
DMK+             10           1     39.38%                               10             1     34.74%  
DMK                 7           1     29.61%    41.42%                 6             1      24.06%   38.46%
INC                  1           0       1.85%    27.55%                 3             0       8.46%    30.32%
Minor               2           0       7.92%                                 1             0       2.22%

AIADMK+      10            9      45.19%                              10             9      44.56%
AIADMK          9            8      42.86%   45.95%                10             9      44.56%   44.56%
PMK                
BJP                1             1       2.32%   34.58%
Minor                                              

PMK                                                                              10             0        1.34%

BJP+                                                                             10             0        9.07%

DMDK+                                                                        10              0        5.50%

AMMK+         10          0        0.79%

MNM+            9           0       8.45%

NTK              10          0        5.18%  ​                            10               0       1.47%

This bloc of seats also skewed heavy toward AIADMK+ in 2016.  Despite a swing toward DMK+ the addition of BJP's vote share and overperformance by MNM+ allowed the AIADMK+ to sweep this set of seats.




Chola Nadu: (41 seats)

                                         2021                                                     2016
                   Contest     Won    Vote       Contest              Contest     Won    Vote       Contest
                                            share    Vote share                                      share    Vote share
DMK+             41          37    48.63%                               41           16     41.50%  
DMK               32          28    39.04%    49.22%                27           16     29.44%    44.72%
INC                  2           2       2.00%    45.58%                 9             0       7.53%    34.90%
Minor               5           5       7.59%                                 5             0       4.53%

AIADMK+      41            4      37.58%                              41            25     43.94%
AIADMK        33             4     30.75%   37.88%                40            24     43.04%    43.85%
PMK               3             0       2.78%   40.74%
BJP                2             0       1.52%   30.56%
Minor             3             0       2.53%                                1             1        0.90%

PMK                                                                              40             0        3.14%

BJP+                                                                             41              0        1.90%

DMDK+                                                                         41              0        6.08%

AMMK+         39          0        3.10%

MNM+          39           0        1.43%

NTK              41          0        7.02%                               41              0       1.10%

This batch of seats was fairly representative of 2016 results and given the swing toward DMK+ and without a large PMK nor BJP vote to augment AIADMK+ it was a landslide victory for DMK+ despite NTK getting a solid vote share.




Pandya Nadu-Non-Dravidian: (25 seats)

                                         2021                                                     2016
                   Contest     Won    Vote       Contest              Contest     Won    Vote       Contest
                                            share    Vote share                                      share    Vote share
DMK+             25          16    41.56%                               25           13     40.64%  
DMK                 9           7     16.35%    48.33%                13            7     21.75%     41.72%
INC                11           9     18.53%     40.79%                 9            5     14.79%     42.14%
Minor               5           0       6.67%                                 3             1       4.10%

AIADMK+       25           9      35.07%                              25            12     39.36%
AIADMK         13           7      20.21%   37.49%                23            11     36.00%    39.37%
PMK                
BJP                8             2      11.24%   34.08%
Minor             4             0       3.62%                                2             1        3.37%

PMK                                                                              24             0        0.54%

BJP+                                                                             24              0        6.67%

DMDK+                                                                         25              0        7.45%

AMMK+         23          0        9.04%

MNM+          23           0        2.43%

NTK              25          0        8.75%                              24              0       1.42%

This bloc of seats has relative INC and BJP strength so a large number of INC BJP and other DMK+ and AIADMK+ allies ran.   In 2016 this set of seats have a slight DMK+ lean but the AIADMK was able to pick off a bunch DMK+ allies where DMK failed to transfer their votes to them.  Also AMMK and NTK were able to either the DMK or AIADMK vote in places where they are not running.  All things equal this seems to have hurt DMK+ more than AIADMK+ and as a result AIADMK+ was able to limit its losses in this bloc of seats.  Another factor here is also DMK leader Stalin's estranged brother MK Alagiri who used to be the DMK boss in the general Pandya Nadu area.  MK Alagiri does not recognize Stalin's succession to DMK leadership but will not act against DMK.  Some DMK cadres here are under his influence and it is likely some of them shifted their support to AIADMK in places where DMK is not running.




Pandya Nadu-Dravidian (26 seats)

                                         2021                                                     2016
                   Contest     Won    Vote       Contest              Contest     Won    Vote       Contest
                                            share    Vote share                                      share    Vote share
DMK+             26          19    44.69%                               26             9     41.91%  
DMK               23          16    40.56%    45.88%                22             8     35.73%    42.32%
INC                                                                                  2             1       3.60%    41.32%
MDMK              3            3      4.13%    40.30%
Minor                                                                               2             0       2.58%

AIADMK+      26             7     38.12%                              26            17     43.37%
AIADMK        26             7     38.12%   38.12%                25            17     42.02%    43.57%
PMK              
BJP                
Minor                                                                              1             0        1.34%

PMK                                                                              26             0        0.45%

BJP+                                                                             26              0        3.97%

DMDK+                                                                         26              0        6.79%

AMMK+         26          0        4.57%

MNM+          25           0        2.07%

NTK              26          0        7.60%                              26               0       1.24%

This set of seats leaned AIADMK+ in 2016 and with DMK-MDMK taking on AIADMK directly DMK+ was able to get a solid swing and get a solid but not a massive victory.  AIADMK+ was able to draw on some BJP vote and AMMK+ and NTK also ate into the DMK+ vote leading to AIADMK+ to avoid a total blowout.  Just like in the rest of Pandya Nadu, DMK leader Stalin's estranged brother MK Alagiri who used to be the DMK boss in these areas also most likely played a role in holding back the DMK landslide here.

[jaichind]

In the end AIADMK+ was saved from a landslide defeat due to the transfer of PMK and BJP vote bases to AIADMK, favorite son effect for EPS in Kongu Nadu, NTK eating into DMK+ vote and AMMK+ underperforming and eating into DMK+ as much as AIADMK+.

TN tends to swing uniformly but these factors was able to save AIADMK+ seats on some pockets.  In the 2011->2016 cycle 83 seats flipped from one bloc to another (75 from AIADMK+  to DMK+,  8 from DMK+ to AIADMK+.)  In the 2016->2021 cycle 101 seats filliped from one bloc to another (81 from AIADMK+ to DMK+ but 20 from DMK+ to AIADMK+.)  A lot of these 20 DMK+ to AIADMK+ flips were in Kongu Nadu or PMK heavy seats.

Between 2011 2016 and 2021 only 76 out of 234 seats did not flip from one bloc or another with 55 out of the 76 seats being in the AIADMK+.  It seems for now AIADMK+ have created a solid floor of 55 seats which prevents it from being totally wiped out like DMK+ were in 1991 2001 and 2011.

[jaichind]

Kerala regional analysis.  I broke the seats out into

a) Significant Muslim seats (14 seats)
b) Muslim majority seats (22 seats)
c) Significant Christian seats (25 seats)
d) Christian majority seats (5 seats)
e) Hindu seats (59 seats)
f) Hindu seats with NDA strength (15 seats)


Significant Muslim seats (14 seats)
                         
                          2021                                 2016
                   Won       Vote share           Won       Vote share
LDF              11            47.43%              9           44.11%
UDF               3            41.30%              5           41.92%
NDA              0              9.15%              0           11.97%

UDF failed to gain from LDF with the Muslim vote while NDA Hindu votes tactically shifted to LDF to help LDF gains east.



Muslim majority seats (22 seats)

                          2021                                 2016
                   Won       Vote share           Won       Vote share
LDF               7            41.86%              7           40.03%
UDF             15            47.06%            15           45.49%
NDA              0              9.30%              0           10.88%

UDF did seem to get a small swing from LDF with the Muslim vote (but still way below 2011 levels) but failed to gain seats as some of the NDA Hindu vote shifted to LDF.



Significant Christian seats (25 seats)

                          2021                                 2016
                   Won       Vote share           Won       Vote share
LDF             18            42.74%             15           39.61%
UDF              7            39.19%             10           40.13%
NDA              0            13.64%              0           18.04%

KEC(Mani) shifting from LDF to UDF created a small swing toward LDF but was was decisive that the anti-UDF Christian vote which partly went to NDA in 2016 shifted to LDF due toe KEC(Mani) and plus a Hindu swing toward LDF led LDF to captured 3 seats from UDF.



Christian majority seats (5 seats)

                          2021                                 2016
                   Won       Vote share           Won       Vote share
LDF               1            40.96%              0           34.49%
UDF              4            47.00%               4           43.00%
NDA              0             6.55%               0           12.24%
KJ(S)            0             6.06%               1             8.92%

Here it seems UDF got a swing of Christian votes from LDF  but anti-UDF Christian votes shifted from NDA and KJ(S) toward LDF in addition to a Hindu swing toward LDF.  As a results LDF took a seat from KJ(S).



Hindu seats (59 seats)

                          2021                                 2016
                   Won       Vote share           Won       Vote share
LDF              48           48.25%              49          47.17%
UDF             11            38.66%             10          36.91%
NDA              0            11.40%               0           13.36%
 
It seems UDF got a small swing from LDF with the Hindu vote but NDA Hindu voters tactically voted for LDF to limit their seat loss to 1 seat.


Hindu seats with NDA strength (15 seats)

                          2021                                 2016
                   Won       Vote share           Won       Vote share
LDF              14           44.55%              11          41.44%
UDF               1            28.51%               3          29.90%
NDA              0            25.95%               1           26.67%
 
It seems that any LDF to UDF swing was counted by UDF tactical voting for LDF to stop NDA.  NDA support actually held up due to lack of NDA Hindu tactical voting for LDF but anti-NDA tactical voting for LDF allowed LDF to gain 3 seats including BJP's only 2016 seat.


Overall it seems the Muslim vote did not move much from 2016 while LDF benefited from a small swing of Hindu from NDA and in some cases UDF for tactical reasons.  For the Christian vote there was a much larger swing from NDA to LDF due to KEC(Mani) being in LDF allowed anti-UDF Christian votes to shift to LDF.   

[jaichind]

Kerala swings a lot less uniform way and has a lot more strongholds than TN.  For 2011->2016 a total of 33 out of 140 seats flipped (UDF->LDF 27, UDF->KJ(S) 1, LDF->UDF 4, LDF->NDA 1).  For 2016->2021 a total of 25 out of 140 seats flipped (UDF->LDF 11, LDF->UDF 9, KJ(S)->LDF 1, NDA->LDF 1).  

In the 2011 to 2021 period 89 out of 140 did not experience any flip between the blocs.  Out of 89 30 are with UDF the entire time and 59 are with LDF the entire time.   Out of the 30 seat that are with UDF the entire time 9 are heavy Christian minority or Christian majority seats, and 16 are heavy Muslim minority or Muslim majority seats.   Out of the 59 seats that are with LDF the entire time 8 are heavy Christian minority seats, and 11 are heavy Muslim minority or Muslim majority seats.  So UDF is very dependent on Christian and Muslim areas for its base while LDF is more Hindu heavy but has the ability to be competitive in Christian and Muslim seats.

[jaichind]

https://www.news18.com/news/politics/bhabanipur-mla-sovandeb-resigns-amid-buzz-over-mamata-banerjee-returning-to-her-old-seat-3761618.html

"Bhabanipur MLA Sovandeb Resigns Amid Indications That Mamata Will Return To Her Old Seat"

It seems the AITC MLA for Bhabanipur, which is Mamata Banerjee's old seat that she won in 2011 and 2016, will resign for Mamata Banerjee to contest.  Main issue now is if the by-election can take place within 6 month given the COVID-19 surge.

[jaichind]

https://www.news18.com/news/india/up-minister-and-charthawal-mla-vijay-kashyap-succumbs-to-covid-19-3751640.html

"UP Minister Vijay Kashyap Succumbs to Covid-19, Fifth BJP MLA to Lose Battle to Virus"

In UP it seems 5 MLAs already have died from this most recent COVID-19 surge.  UP has 403 MLAs.  If look at the % of India's population above 50 (which I assume is the cast for the large majority of UP MLAs) which would be around 300 million this sort of death rate would be if 3 million Indians died from the latest wave.  Granted the typical MLA lifestyle would make him or her especially vulnerable to catching COVID-19 but this death rate is quite amazing and implies the official death rate in India is vastly underreported due to lack of medical infrastructure in rural areas to test and report COVID-19 deaths.

[jaichind]

It seems unlikely J&K assembly elections will be held in 2021 most likely will take place in 2022.  If so that is a wrap in 2021 for assembly elections.  Given that it is now time to update by BJP vs INC power index chart.  

I came up with a metric of using state level assembly election vote shares.  This filters out the effect that both BJP and INC tend to get a larger than deserved seat allocation with local allies for LS elections and the affect of personal waves in LS elections (BJP's Vajpayee in 1999, INC's Manmohan Singh in 2009, and BJP's Modi in 2019.)

What I did was for the end of each year compute the total vote share of BJP and INC in the most recent state assembly elections.  This is a bit of a lagging indicator but does give you the shape of BJP vs INC party strength over time.  Doing so gives us.

All India

Year     BJP         INC  
2021    29.10%  19.52%
2020    26.56%  20.68%
2019    26.82%  20.67%
2018    26.44%  21.17%
2017    25.80%  19.99%
2016    21.87%  20.68%
2015    21.06%  21.03%
2014    20.54%  21.56%
2013    18.30%  24.52%
2012    17.17%  23.98%
2011    17.23%  23.93%
2010    17.43%  24.40%
2009    17.40%  24.47%
2008    17.80%  24.76%
2007    17.83%  24.58%
2006    18.03%  24.34%
2005    18.68%  24.05%
2004    18.37%  23.93%
2003    18.28%  24.68%
2002    17.10%  25.32%
2001    18.38%  24.49%
2000    18.57%  27.49%
1999    17.98%  28.15%
1998    17.60%  27.08%
1997    17.57%  26.42%
1996    17.82%  26.56%
1995    17.65%  29.12%
1994    17.30%  29.25%
1993    16.47%  31.38%
1992    14.18%  31.34%
1991    13.94%  31.37%
1990    10.36%  32.94%
1989      7.62%  37.78%
1988      7.47%  37.96%

With BJP breaking through in WB BJP reaches a new high and is now around where INC was in the mid 1990s.  With what was left of the INC vote in WB mostly gone INC crashed to a new low but is still somewhat stronger than the BJP in the 1994-2013 period.

Breaking them out by language groups one gets

Hindi states

Year     BJP      INC
2021  36.28%  20.98%
2020  36.28%  20.98%
2019  37.09%  20.96%
2018  36.84%  20.44%
2017  38.49%  18.01%
2016  29.80%  20.19%
2015  29.80%  20.19%
2014  28.88%  21.46%
2013  27.16%  22.52%
2012  23.24%  21.56%
2011  24.97%  21.78%
2010  24.97%  21.78%
2009  25.13%  21.90%
2008  25.45%  22.04%
2007  26.53%  21.47%
2006  27.14%  21.39%
2005  27.14%  21.39%
2004  26.29%  21.12%
2003  26.29%  21.12%
2002  23.94%  22.43%
2001  28.41%  21.95%
2000  28.41%  21.95%
1999  28.26%  22.80%
1998  28.26%  22.80%
1997  28.66%  21.01%
1996  28.66%  21.01%
1995  28.01%  26.19%
1994  28.99%  26.73%
1993  28.99%  26.73%
1992  25.31%  25.69%
1991  25.31%  25.69%
1990  18.66%  28.95%
1989  15.02%  36.61%
1988  14.79%  41.39%

Area of BJP strength.  INC pretty much holding steady since 1996 while BJP have surged since 2012 mostly at the expense of regional parties.


Non-Hindi Indo-Aryan

Year     BJP        INC
2021  33.61%  21.82%
2020  26.80%  24.41%
2019  26.80%  24.41%
2018  25.80%  25.86%
2017  22.85%  25.67%
2016  22.58%  25.14%
2015  20.31%  25.20%
2014  20.31%  25.20%
2013  16.51%  26.41%
2012  18.29%  25.88%
2011  17.69%  25.36%
2010  17.90%  26.66%
2009  17.90%  26.66%
2008  18.10%  27.32%
2007  17.24%  27.46%
2006  17.04%  27.06%
2005  17.93%  26.28%
2004  17.93%  26.28%
2003  17.16%  28.31%
2002  17.22%  28.32%
2001  15.96%  26.80%
2000  16.40%  34.01%
1999  15.31%  34.57%
1998  14.22%  33.30%
1997  14.27%  33.07%
1996  14.73%  33.75%
1995  16.02%  32.72%
1994  12.77%  33.29%
1993  10.62%  36.08%
1992  10.62%  36.14%
1991  10.14%  36.04%
1990    7.22%  36.88%
1989    4.41%  42.21%
1988    4.39%  41.71%

Used to be an area of INC strength, Modi had a huge impact here with BJP getting to where INC was in the late 1990s while INC falls to where BJP was when Modi took over.


Sino-Tibetan

Year   BJP        INC
2021  22.03% 23.32%
2020  22.03% 23.32%
2019  22.03% 23.32%
2018  19.78% 26.59%
2017  14.70% 33.57%
2016   4.39%  35.41%
2015   4.39%  35.41%
2014   4.39%  35.41%
2013   1.91%  37.26%
2012   3.11%  38.73%
2011   2.72%  36.40%
2010   2.72%  36.40%
2009   2.72%  36.40%
2008   3.98%  35.50%
2007   5.85%  33.96%
2006   8.79%  31.38%
2005   8.79%  31.38%
2004   8.79%  31.38%
2003   7.82%  30.90%
2002   6.67%  32.08%
2001   7.28%  29.14%
2000   7.28%  29.14%
1999   4.24%  33.30%
1998   3.31%  34.14%
1997   2.65%  35.82%
1996   2.65%  35.82%
1995   2.65%  35.82%
1994   1.82%  36.66%
1993   1.83%  37.04%
1992   0.65%  37.23%
1991   0.65%  37.23%
1990   0.65%  37.23%
1989   0.26%  34.96%
1988   0.31%  32.78%

Due to federal subsidies this region votes with the natural ruling.  Until 2014 that was INC with a period in 2000-2004 of some move toward BJP, after that they continue to trend toward BJP.


Dravidian

Year     BJP      INC
2021   4.50%  11.43%
2020   4.42%  12.19%
2019   4.42%  12.19%
2018   4.82%  12.81%
2017   4.80%  12.04%
2016   4.80%  12.04%
2015   3.76%  13.47%
2014   3.76%  13.47%
2013   3.17%  24.31%
2012   3.17%  24.31%
2011   3.17%  24.31%
2010   2.87%  24.19%
2009   2.87%  24.19%
2008   2.79%  24.19%
2007   2.79%  24.19%
2006   2.79%  24.19%
2005   3.31%  24.48%
2004   3.31%  24.48%
2003   3.78%  24.86%
2002   3.78%  24.86%
2001   3.78%  24.86%
2000   3.33%  25.96%
1999   3.33%  25.96%
1998   3.41%  22.63%
1997   3.41%  22.63%
1996   3.41%  22.63%
1995   3.28%  26.93%
1994   3.28%  26.93%
1993   2.37%  32.29%
1992   2.37%  32.29%
1991   2.37%  32.29%
1990   2.00%  32.70%
1989   2.00%  32.75%
1988   1.99%  26.56%

BJP always weak here and there does not seem to be much chances for the BJP to rise much from here. INC used to be strong here but in 1996 lost a bunch of its base in TN to the Dravidian parties and then in 2014 lost its entire AP base to YSRCP.

At this stage I doubt BJP index will rise that much going forward and if anything is more likely to fall.  WB was the last low hanging fruit for the BJP and once that is in the bag upcoming assembly elections most likely will net net work toward BJP going down slightly.  The lowest hanging fruit now for the BJP is Telangana where in 2017 the BJP urban base tactically vote for TRS to stop INC-TDP but this time will vote BJP.

Assembly elections in 2021-2022 in larger states and likely shift in BJP and INC vote share compared to the pervious election

Punjab - BJP mostly flat, INC down
Uttarakhand - BJP down, INC up
UP - BJP down, INC flat to slightly up
HP - BJP down, INC up
Gujarat - BJP flat perhaps a bit down, INC flat perhaps a bit up
Karnataka - BJP flat perhaps a bit down, INC up
MP - BJP flat, INC flat
Rajasthan - BJP up, INC down
Chhattisgarh - BJP up, INC down
Telangana - BJP up, INC flat perhaps a bit up

[jaichind]

https://www.indiatoday.in/magazine/up-front/story/20210531-congress-the-imminent-return-of-rahul-1805676-2021-05-22

"Congress: The imminent return of Rahul"

INC indicates the long awaited election for INC Prez will take place June 23rd which means that Rahul Gandhi is ready to come back as INC Prez.  I guess even though the assembly election was a flop for INC the Gandhi clan is able to still consolidate their control of INC due to the impact of Modi's falling popularity as a result of the COVID-19 surge.  It seems the anti-Gandhi bloc in the INC have accepted the return of Rahul Gandhi and are now only fighting to a larger say for them in deciding making once Rahul Gandhi comes back.

[Continential]

If the general election for the Lok Sabha was held today, how would it go?