India 2021 assembly elections - TN, Kerala, WB, Assam, and perhaps J&K

[jaichind]

More CSDS TN post-election survey

BJP was for sure a drag on AIADMK with even AIADMK+ voters was more negative on BJP than positive.  NTK massive anti-BJP tilt adds to my view that NTK outperformance ate into the DMK+ vote.  Also unlike Northern India Dalits in TN are very negative on BJP



With Jayalalitha gone the DMK+ closed the gender gap and avoided the outsized women vote for AIADMK.


DMK+ outperformed relative to 2016 with swing voters

[jaichind]

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/mamata-banerjee-is-leader-of-our-country-today-congresss-kamal-nath-2430148

""Mamata Banerjee Is Leader Of Our Country Today": Congress's Kamal Nath"

Former INC CM of MP  Kamal Nath called AITC WB CM Mamata Banerjee  "Leader of Our Country Today" and seems to be open to Mamata Banerjee being the UPA PM candidate in 2024.   Kamal Nath has long links to the Gandhi family so a statement like this must at least have some tacit approval from the Gandhi clan.

[jaichind]

Final UP Zila Panchyat  elections results

There are claims that at least 100 out of the Others/Independents are pro-INC although it seems clear that a larger number of them are pro-BJP or pro-SP.  Overall a poor showing for BJP and strong showing for SP.


What would be concerning for BJP CM Yogi Adityanath is that a lot of the BJP loses are in Eastern UP which is his bastion.  Western UP, it seems, is likely to swing away from BJP in 2022 assembly elections due to a revived RLD and the rise of the farmers movements but Eastern UP was expected to swing toward BJP due to the Yogi Adityanath faction.  These results indicates that Eastern UP might not be safe for BJP next year.

[jaichind]

WB results chart.  Note elections were held in 292 out of 294 seats due to COVID-19 death of candidates in two seats.  AITC is expected in both when the elections are held.

AITC overperformed by clawing back some Hindu votes that voted BJP due to Modi in 2019 and pulling in pro-INC and what remains of the pro-Left Front Muslim vote.  BJP failed to get that much anti-AITC tactical voting from Left Front and INC voters.  The BJP were lucky.  Most of the very close seats broke for BJP.  Had the close seats been more evenly divided the BJP would have be in the high 50s or low 60s in terms of seats.

Left Front, INC and ISF had a tactical alliance but it held up in most seats and was more complete than the looser Left Front INC alliance of 2016.

The fates of CPM INC and BJP are exactly reversed of 2016.  In 2016 CPM won 39.07% in seats it contested and INC won 40.79% in seats contested while the BJP won 10.40% in seats contested.  This time around CPM won 9.98% in seats contested and INC won 9.83% in seats contested while the BJP won 38.67% in seats contested.  An exact mirror image shift.  AITC went from 45.72% in seats contested in 2016 to 49.04% in seats contested in 2021.

Former pro-AITC Muslim ISF seems to have overperformed and was able to retain some Muslim votes that shifted in greater numbers to AITC in seats contested by Left Front and INC.

AITC not getting the two GJM factions (GJM (Gurung)  GJM (Tamang)) together or just making a call which one they backed cost them a couple of seats to BJP in Gorkhaland.

                            Contest         Win        Vote share      Vote share
                                                                               (in seats contested)
AITC+                     289            213            48.53%
AITC                       288            213            48.47%          49.04%
Ind.                           1                0              0.06%          17.73%

GJM (Tamang)            3                1              0.28%          33.30% (backed by part of AITC)
GJM (Gurung)             3                0             0.17%           20.98% (backed by part of AITC)

NDA                       292              77            38.65%
BJP                        291              77            38.54%           38.67%
AJSU                         1                0              0.10%           30.37%

Left Front               179                0              5.74%                       (tactical alliance with INC ISF)
CPM                       137               0               4.75%            9.98%
AIFB                        21               0               0.54%            7.46%
CPI                          10               0               0.20%            5.57%
RSP                         10               0               0.21%            6.40%
MFB                          1                0              0.04%           11.43%

INC                        91                 0              2.96%             9.83% (tactical alliance with Left Front ISF)

ISF                       32                  1               1.37%          12.20% (tactical alliance with INC Left Front)

[jaichind]

CSDS post election survey on WB

Big gender gap advantage with women for AITC although the advantage differs with different communities and income.  AITC if anything made more gains with men relative to 2019




BJP's plan of gaining votes by deploying Modi over many phases did not work as late deciders broke for AITC across the board




BJP which had a surge in 2019 with OBC and Dalits (including Rajbanshis and Namasudra) saw some of their 2019 gains dissipate


A bunch of Left Front voters that voted in 2019 did not seem to have voted BJP this time although the BJP still retained a significant (33% in 2021 vs 39% in 2019) part of the old Left Front vote

[Oryxslayer]

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/mamata-banerjee-is-leader-of-our-country-today-congresss-kamal-nath-2430148

""Mamata Banerjee Is Leader Of Our Country Today": Congress's Kamal Nath"

Former INC CM of MP  Kamal Nath called AITC WB CM Mamata Banerjee  "Leader of Our Country Today" and seems to be open to Mamata Banerjee being the UPA PM candidate in 2024.   Kamal Nath has long links to the Gandhi family so a statement like this must at least have some tacit approval from the Gandhi clan.

If this ends up happening then there may be hope for the Congress yet. I'll be very surprised if they put aside the Gandhis and nominate a popular outsider - yes one who has worked in their governments, but who presently has the brand of an outsider - who has had disagreements with the Congress in the past. This would go a long way to denting Modi's lead in the personal brand department, and it would likely bring regional party allies into an anti-BJP alliance.

[jaichind]

This Friday MK Stalin, age 68, will finally become CM of TN.  The anticipated coronation of MK Stalin as CM of TN has taken 49 years to reach. 

MK Stalin is the son of former DMK leader and CM of TN on many occasions Karunanidhi.  Karunanidhi took over as CM of TN in 1969 after DMK founder and CM Annadurai passed away.  Annadurai founded and led DMK to victory in 1967 over INC.  After Karunanidhi led DMK to victory in 1971 with the help of Indira Gandhi's INC over INC(O) he began to think in terms of installing his son MK Stalin as his successor.   This put him into conflict the other DMK leader MGR who left DMK in 1972 to form AIADMK which went on to the the main rival to DMK as both INC and INC(O) which later became JNP declined in stature in TN.  When MGR left everyone accepted that MK Stalin is the successor to  Karunanidhi.  This was challenged once by key Karunanidhi protégé Vaiko who had leadership aspirations which came to a head in 1993 when Vaiko bolted from DMK to form MDMK.

But  Karunanidhi lived for so long that even in 2016 assembly at age 92 it was him that was leading DMK into battle and only really handed power to his son MK Stalin after the 2016 assembly was lost.   Karunanidhi died in 2018 at age 94.  So 2021 was the first TN assembly election that MK Stalin was able to rally lead DMK into battle in.  Problem for MK Stalin is that now that he is finally CM he is already 68 and in the likely event he loses the 2026 assembly elections to AIADMK he might end up being CM for only 5 years before he will have to start thinking about retirement.

MK Stalin's tenure in the role of imperial successor for 46 years (1972-2018) must be pretty close to a world record.

[jaichind]

https://news.abplive.com/news/india/west-bengal-polls-once-domestic-help-kalita-majhi-gets-bjp-ticket-ausgram-sc-seat-1449252

"Meet Kalita Majhi, Domestic Help Turned BJP Candidate For West Bengal Assembly Polls"

In Ausgram where the BJP got 7.6% in 2016 the BJP decided to go for a long shot non-politicans candidate nominating a domestic servant who is married to a plumber.  By nominating someone from such a humble background does project BJP as a pro-poor party.



Unfortunately for the BJP this move blew up in its face when Kalita Majhi was interviewed by the media and was asked which party she is running for she said "AITC".   I guess she does not know much about politics and just stated the party she heard of the most, which would be the ruling AITC.

She actually did not do too badly even though she, as the BJP candidate lost.  In Ausgram it was

AITC    47.12% (incumbant)
BJP      41.58% (political novice Kalita Majhi)
CPM      9.58%

[jaichind]

In the international media the narrative seems to be: "BJP doing badly in WB shows that Modi is doing a bad job on COVID-19 is having an effect"

I totally disagree with this take.  Most of the voting in the assembly elections took place BEFORE the COVID-19 surge.  True, in the later stages of WB that voted after the COVID-19 surge became real the BJP underperformed.  But that has to do with the fact that these same later stages are Muslim heavy districts that had an anti-BJP consolidation behind the AITC. We know this had nothing to do with COVID-19 because in heavy Muslim districts that voted in the earlier stages saw the same Muslim consolidation.

Also if I were the BJP I would be much more worried about the  UP Zila Panchyat  elections which had zero international coverage.  Sure the BJP lost WB but they are on a clear upward trend and they are now solidly the alternative to AITC and are now most likely the frontrunner for the 2026 WB assembly elections.  The UP Zila Panchyat  elections shows that there are anger on the ground in the IP against the BJP and that they could be in a trouble in the 2022 UP assembly elections.  Note the voting in UP took place BEFORE the COVID-19 surge in UP.  And in UP with the BJP being the incumbent government there is nowhere for the BJP to run even if they successfully deflect blame from Modi.   I would be very worried about UP next year if I were the BJP and would not be that worried at all about the WB results.

[jaichind]

Puducherry results chart.

The BJP contested 9 seat and won 6.  But just to show the Modi's INC effect (INC defectors running as BJP candidates) I will break out BJP results by Modi's INC (BJP candidates that are INC defectors with some of them defecting via AINRC where the candidate had an INC background and defected to AINRC before defecting to BJP) and core BJP.

                            Contest         Win        Vote share      Vote share
                                                                               (in seats contested)
NDA                         30             16            44.22%
AINRC                      16             10            26.19%        47.50%
Modi's INC                  5              5               8.95%       51.45%
BJP                            4              1               4.89%       37.81%
AIADMK                     5               0              4.19%        28.84%

AINRC rebel               4               3              4.59%        38.22%
AIADMK rebel             1               1             1.45%         37.00%

UPA                         30               9             38.33%
INC                         14               2             15.91%        34.02%
DMK                        13               6             18.75%        44.33%
CPI                           1                0               0.91%       32.50%
VCK                          1                0               0.68%       17.46%
Ind.                          1                1               2.07%       49.24%

INC rebel                  1                1               1.28%       37.15%
DMK rebel                 2                0               0.86%       13.56%

pro-CPM Ind.             1               0               1.14%        40.73%

MNM                       22               0               1.92%          2.60%

NTK                        28               0               3.41%          3.67%

Some takeaways

1) The 4 AINRC rebels are very "fishy" in the sense that they really looked lik AINRC trying to run more candidates they were allocated.  All the rebels were "expelled" from AINRC but it seem it was more like a "wink wink" "expelled" and most of AINRC rebels that won will find their way back to AINRC or perhaps be bought out by BJP for a boatload of $$$.

2) The Modi's INC impact can be seen now we broke them out.  Modi's INC won 51.45% in seats contested which showed the size of their personal vote PLUS AINRC and AIADMK vote bloc support.  Also 5 out of 6 BJP MLAs are really just Modi's INC.

3) AIADMK totally underperformed which is the mirror image of DMK relative overperformance vis-a-vis INC.  AIADMK mostly took on DMK which DMK got a bunch of seats from a weak AIADMK.

4) UPA vote share of 38.33% is not that bad and is really only slightly below its 2016 performance of 40.11% where INC-DMK won 17 out of 30 seats.  This time around the AINRC and AIADMK were able to fuse their vote behind NDA plus the personal vote of Modi's INC was able to power the NDA to victory despite UPA vote share mostly holding up.

5) NTK, just like TN, seems to have overperformed at 3.41% of the vote and had a big jump from 0.49% in 2016.  NTK is a rising force in TN-Puducherry.

[eos]

Which one seat you had INC winning that BJP ended up winning?

I think INC should have also won the following seats:

Upper/North Assam: Lakhimpur, Teok, Amguri
Central Assam: Barhampur
Barak Valley: Patharkandi

The seat I thought the INC was going to win for sure but the BJP won instead was Patharkandi.

I can see why you thought INC was going to win Lakhimpur given the AGP incumbent and the BJP was in a friendly fight but I had it as a tossup since it was not clear how much BJP-AGP tactical voting will take place.  

As for Teok and Amguri I assumed you thought AGP will underperform.  I was not as such are about how big that would be ergo I had them as tossups.  Barhampur I assume it was about the Prafulla Mahanta factor.  But with Prafulla Mahanta not actively helping INC I was not sure that the INC would win.

The INC candidate in Barhampur had a very good performance against Mahanta in 2016. I thought he should have been favoured in the absence of Mahanta himself. I think he would have pulled it off if not for AJP.

Amguri is a swing seat that has gone AGP (1985) to INC (1991) to AGP (1996) to INC (2001) to AGP (2006) to INC (2011) to AGP (2016). The INC candidate in 2021 lost very narrowly in 2016, being the daughter of the former INC MLA here, Anjun Data, who was also state INC president before his death. I thought she should have been favoured because it was INC's turn again, but I underestimated the pro-NDA sentiment this time. I think she would have won, or lost very narrowly if not for the AJP.

I had INC winning Teok because I grouped it together with seats like Titabor, Mariani, Amguri, and Nazira, all of which seemed good for the INC at one time. To be fair, the INC candidate lost very narrowly (1400 votes). The RD candidate took away nearly 6000 votes, which I think would have mostly gone INC.

I had INC winning Lakhimpur because the 2021 candidate came very close in 2016 despite an INC rebel. I thought with the situation reversed, INC should have been strongly favoured.

[jaichind]

UP Zila Panchyat  elections results (BJP vs SP vs BSP) by region.

What has to worry UP BJP CM Yogi Adityanath is BJP underperformance in Eastern UP like Awadh and Poorvanchal.  Before 2019 LS elections there were signs of similar anger in Eastern UP against BJP but the Modi wave was able to wash over those frustrations.  This time around the frustration are greater and growing and 2022 will not have Modi at the top of the BJP ticket.  It is very possible Yogi Adityanath's brand can overcome local frustration against the BJP.

[jaichind]

CSDS post election poll for Kerala

Net net, NDA lost a bit of ground to both LDF and UDF.  It was enough for BJP to lose their only seat and LDF main a greater net gain from NDA relative to UDF which meant the LDF gain a few seats relative to 2016.

UDF recaptured lost ground from LDF and NDA with Nairs (which is a traditionally pro-UDF community) but lost ground with Ezhavas (which is a traditionally a pro-LDF community) to both LDF and NDA.  NDA gained ground with Upper Caste voters.  The LDF surge was based on making big gains with OBC and Dalits.  It seems NDA lost ground with Christians losing them to both UDF and LDF.   This does show that KEC(M) going over to LDF did not really lead to a fundamental shift of the Christian vote from UDF to LDF.  What killed UDF is their inavlity to gain ground with Hindus vis-a-vis LDF.

[jaichind]

https://www.thehindu.com/elections/assam-assembly/assam-govt-formation-sonowal-himanta-rush-to-delhi/article34510108.ece

"Assam govt. formation: Sonowal, Himanta rush to Delhi"

5 days after the election, still no decision on Assam CM.  Both Assam BJP CM Sonowal and Himanta, the top candidates, are going to Delhi to have more meetings with BJP high command to work out a deal.  I guess this means the MLAs associated with both factions are insisting on their candidate so now a compromise has to be worked out.

[jaichind]

CSDS post-election survey on Assam

Clear signs of Hindu and Muslim consolidation.  Bengali polarization by religion greater than Assamese
AGP has some residual support with Assamese Muslims and it is show up here in this poll.  The AGP alliance did pay off for BJP in terms of getting those Assamese Muslim votes for NDA.  AJP-RD clearly ate into the pro-UPA Assamese Hindu vote.

[eos]

https://www.thehindu.com/elections/assam-assembly/assam-govt-formation-sonowal-himanta-rush-to-delhi/article34510108.ece

"Assam govt. formation: Sonowal, Himanta rush to Delhi"

5 days after the election, still no decision on Assam CM.  Both Assam BJP CM Sonowal and Himanta, the top candidates, are going to Delhi to have more meetings with BJP high command to work out a deal.  I guess this means the MLAs associated with both factions are insisting on their candidate so now a compromise has to be worked out.

Should the BJP give in to Himanta? I think he and his supporters have the greater potential to cause trouble if left dissatisfied.

[eos]

CSDS post-election survey on Assam

Clear signs of Hindu and Muslim consolidation.  Bengali polarization by religion greater than Assamese
AGP has some residual support with Assamese Muslims and it is show up here in this poll.  The AGP alliance did pay off for BJP in terms of getting those Assamese Muslim votes for NDA.  AJP-RD clearly ate into the pro-UPA Assamese Hindu vote.

AJP/RD definitely cost the INC.

I think Assamese speaking Muslims lack a pan-Islamic identity. This is partly cultural, and partly also political in that they want others to distinguish between Bengali Muslims and themselves. In recent years, Himanta has played up this division, mostly reserving his provocative statements on "Miya" or Bengali Muslims. This creates the perception that the Assam BJP is not necessarily against "indigenous" Assamese speaking Muslims.

[jaichind]

https://www.thehindu.com/elections/assam-assembly/assam-govt-formation-sonowal-himanta-rush-to-delhi/article34510108.ece

"Assam govt. formation: Sonowal, Himanta rush to Delhi"

5 days after the election, still no decision on Assam CM.  Both Assam BJP CM Sonowal and Himanta, the top candidates, are going to Delhi to have more meetings with BJP high command to work out a deal.  I guess this means the MLAs associated with both factions are insisting on their candidate so now a compromise has to be worked out.

Should the BJP give in to Himanta? I think he and his supporters have the greater potential to cause trouble if left dissatisfied.

That would be the rational choice.  But I think BJP already has the INC disease and will prioritize those that do not have their own independent vote base so they are easier to control.  If you use that algorithm  Sonowal is a better choice.

[jaichind]

AJP/RD definitely cost the INC.

I think Assamese speaking Muslims lack a pan-Islamic identity. This is partly cultural, and partly also political in that they want others to distinguish between Bengali Muslims and themselves. In recent years, Himanta has played up this division, mostly reserving his provocative statements on "Miya" or Bengali Muslims. This creates the perception that the Assam BJP is not necessarily against "indigenous" Assamese speaking Muslims.

I totally agree that the BJP campaign focused on Bengali Muslims.  Himanta made it clear several times that the BJP campaign is not anti-Muslim because they only targeted Bengali Muslim infiltrators from Bangladesh and not Assamese Muslims.  But that would explain why Assamese Muslims voted in the teens for NDA but not 24%.  I do still think there is residue Assamese Muslim support AGP that got transferred over to NDA.  Just like in Bihar I think Muslims most likely voted 20%+ for NDA mostly due to residual support for JD(U) that got transferred to NDA.

[jaichind]

https://scroll.in/article/994249/assam-verdict-29-charts-that-show-just-how-polarised-the-election-was

"Assam verdict: 29 charts that show just how polarised the election was"

Has some good Assam charts/maps

Regions of Assam


2021 turnout (very heavy turnout in Muslim heavy parts of Lower Assam)


2021 map


2019 assembly segments map


2016 map


2011 map

[jaichind]

https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/assam-chief-minister-decision-himanta-sarma-meets-bjps-jp-nadda-over-assam-chief-minister-decision-2437615

"Himanta Sarma Ahead In Assam Race, Say Sources; Key BJP Meet Tomorrow"

Various media sources say that BJP 40-45 MLAs back Himanta Sarma over Sonowal.  If that is the case then BJP high command might have no choice but to go with Himanta.  But I suspect Himanta's relationship with BJP high command will take a hit if it was viewed that they were forced into making this decision.

[jaichind]

RLD's leader Ajit Singh passed away a couple of days ago due to COVID-19 at age 82.  He was the son of former PM Charan Singh who lead the UP Jat based BLD which in turn merged into JNP and then lead a caretaker government when JNP split.  Charan Singh led the JNP splinter LKD until 1987 when he died.   Ajit Singh was not involved in politics and was a computer programmer in the USA when he was called back to India to help take over LKD in 1986 as his father fell ill.   Ajit Singh became a political player in UP and national politics with plenty of shift and turns as he became a central figure in the Jatland of Western UP.

LKD split into LKD(A) and LKD(B) after Charan Singh died with Ajit Singh leading LKD(A).  Eventually both LKD(A) and LKD(B) merged with JNP to form JD.  As a result after JD won the 1989 LS elections Ajit Singh became a minister in the JD government.  Ajit Singh stayed with JD after its split in 1991 but took his JD faction and merged it into INC after INC won the 1991 LS elections.  Ajit Singh then served as a INC minister in the INC government.  After INC lost the 1996 LS elections he took his faction out of INC and formed BKKP which was renamed RLD in 1998.    In 1996 UP assembly elections BKKP allied with SP but allied with INC in the 1998 and 1999 LS elections.  In 2001 RLD formed an alliance with BJP and ran as a BJP ally in the 2002 UP assembly elections.  As a result Ajit Singh served as a minister in the NDA government at the federal level.  In 2004 RLD switched to join SP as an ally and ran with SP in the 2004 LS elections.  That alliance did not last long and in 2007 UP assembly elections RLD ran on its own.  In 2009 RLD joined NDA again and ran in the 2009 LS elections as a BJP ally but switched to the UPA in 2011 and ran as a INC ally in the 2012 UP assembly elections.  As a result Ajit Singh became a minister in the UPA government.    In 2014 LS elections RLD ran as a INC ally.  In the 2017 UP assembly elections RLD ran by itself but by that time due to Jat-Muslim communal riots in 2013 a good part of the RLD Jat base has shifted to BJP.   In 2019 LS elections RLD joined the SP-BSP grand alliance to take on the BJP in a losing effort its Jat base still seems to lean BJP.  After 2019 LS elections RLD continued as a SP ally and with the farm protests there seems to be signs that the old RLD Jat base might be shifted back from the BJP.

With Ajit Singh's death, his son Jayant Chaudhary will lead the RLD as a SP ally in the 2022 UP assembly elections with hopes of reclaiming the old RLD Jat base from the BJP.

Ajit Singh has a fairly small vote base in Western UP relative the the size of the UP but by jumping from one front to another have extracted significant political influence.  He correctly recognized that after the death of his father Charan Singh his political inherence is only the Western UP Jat base and that his father's influence over the rest of UP disappeared with is death.  He played the hand he was dealt very well.

[eos]

Looks like Himanta Biswa Sarma will become CM of Assam.

https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/assam-cm-sarbananda-sonowal-submits-his-resignation-1800451-2021-05-09

[jaichind]

Looks like Himanta Biswa Sarma will become CM of Assam.

https://www.indiatoday.in/india/story/assam-cm-sarbananda-sonowal-submits-his-resignation-1800451-2021-05-09

So now there will be 3 BJP CM in the Northeast that are INC defectors:

Arunachal Pradesh - Pema Khandu - Was INC CM in 2016 but then took almost all of the Arunachal Pradesh INC to split to join PPA and then took the same bunch of MLA to split from PPA to join BJP remaining CM the entire time.

Manipur - N. Biren Singh - defected to BJP in 2016 and became BJP CM after the 2017 assembly elections

Assam - Himanta Biswa Sarma - defected to BJP in 2015 and was made CM after the 2021 assembly elections.

The preference within the BJP is to pick someone with RSS background.  The fact they had to go with an INC defector without a  RSS background shows the lack of local home grown BJP-RSS talent in these states.

[jaichind]

While going through the list of winning MLA in WB I came across Soumen Roy from BJP that won from Kaliaganj.  It seems back in April this funny story came out about him

https://react.etvbharat.com/english/national/bharat/dont-vote-for-my-husband-hes-characterless-bjp-leaders-wife-appeals-to-voters/na20210417223705287

"Don't vote for my husband, he's characterless: BJP leader's wife appeals to voters"

Soumen Roy seems to be someone without a BJP background but does have roots in this district..
It also seems that Soumen Roy was going through a divorce with his wife.  His wife and daughter came out with a press conference asking voters not to vote for her husband.  She had detailed documentation of her husband's corrupt activities and pointed out that he abandoned his family and formed another family behind her back.  

In the end it did not matter and Soumen Roy won with a near 50% of the vote.

BJP      49.33% (Soumen Roy)
AITC    40.11%  
INC       7.08%

In 2016 it was

INC     52.46%
AITC   31.39%
BJP     12.91%

It seems  that the INC incumbent died in 2019 which led to a by-election where the INC vote collapsed and AITC narrowly defeated BJP

2019 by-election

AITC    45.12%
BJP      44.00%
INC       8.73%

This set up BJP as the main alternative to AITC in 2021 elections and the anti-AITC vote consolidated around Soumen Roy regardless of what his wife said and produced about his corrupt activities and abandonment of his family and wrote them off as "a women scorned."