Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[lfromnj]

It was always crazy for half the posters to predict a McAuliffe margin 5+ points to the left of the polls with literally no evidence to support that. Like the polls showed a Youngkin win, the environment was bad for Democrats, enthusiasm was seemingly on the GOP side, but people were still predicting McAuliffe +5 or more.

To be fair all the same could be said for Trump in 2020 as well and yet still plenty of blue avatars here were delusional about his chances. Hell, even some green and red avatars were dooming based on zero evidence.

Biden won by 0.6 points

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

It was always crazy for half the posters to predict a McAuliffe margin 5+ points to the left of the polls with literally no evidence to support that. Like the polls showed a Youngkin win, the environment was bad for Democrats, enthusiasm was seemingly on the GOP side, but people were still predicting McAuliffe +5 or more.

A lot of the talking points used against that line of thought were and are bogus and nonsense. What happened was Youngkin got the Election Day turnout he needed to pull even, regardless.
Youngkin is favored to pull off what Trump did in FL in 2020 - overcoming an early vote lead with higher than expected Election Day turnout.
VA Ds might have inadvertantly harmed themselves by making it easier to vote, lol.

[sting in the rafters]

While it is plausible that there is higher conservative turnout amongst LV, the ideological composition would be not only be to the right of the 2013 race, but feature the same conservative% as 2009. Rs do have an enthusiasm advantage, however not by much.

At the risk of hackery the RV screens in both polls show the generally accepted ~25/40/35 split seems more accurate. That said, the state of the campaign indicates a path to victory for Youngkin as TMac cannot take turnout in NoVA and the black communities of the Tidewater regions for granted. Sleepwalking through the home stretch is not an option.

People keep saying this but there is no evidence of this?

No evidence of the Tmac campaign sleepwalking? Agreed, he's been utilizing COVID and abortion as 2 key issues to hammer Youngkin over the head with. My point is more a general point of not taking the race for granted solely because of favorable trends.

He isn’t so it’s pretty moot. He’s running a good campaign by your admission.

Never really said he isn't, look man some of us are gonna have the '16 general in the back of our minds forever (yes, there are countless differences in the dynamics which need not be enumerated but the principle is the same) and be scared s---less at any sign of low base turnout. WaPo showing consistently higher voter intent among Rs and conservatives underscores the need to close it out in the final 6 weeks.

To reiterate, the fact that even an electorate as right as 2013 would give Tmac the W indicates this is a Likely D race. But there's a reason Likely D races are Likely and not Safe.

>Looks at Surry County, a rural racially polarized county in the Tidewater at Youngkin+0.7 with 100% reporting as opposed to Northam+13.1
>Repeatedly bangs head into wall

[AGA]

It's noteworthy that both Georgia and Virginia showed a lot of polling momentum for the winners...something to pay attention to.

[AncestralDemocrat.]

It was always crazy for half the posters to predict a McAuliffe margin 5+ points to the left of the polls with literally no evidence to support that. Like the polls showed a Youngkin win, the environment was bad for Democrats, enthusiasm was seemingly on the GOP side, but people were still predicting McAuliffe +5 or more.

It's called wishcasting... welcome to Atlas. lol

[EJ24]

I think the uncomfortable truth here is that part of this is Suburban whitelash after this past year of new conversations about race, not just CRT. That one issue just happens to encapsulate it.

I don't think Suburbanites are as reliable for Democrats as they may think. They are still okay with racism as long as it's in pretty packaging with respectable language.

[LAB-LIB]

I've seen enough, calling it for Youngkin. I really don't have any idea how TMac can pull it out. This should be a wake up call for the powers that be in the Democratic Party, but based on what I've seen, it won't be.

Of course it won't be. They've been trying the "orange man bad" strategy for the past 5 years in NH.

All they have to show for it are a 33-point loss and giving Sununu a trifecta.

People are focusing MUCH more on this race than NH Governor as it was far from the top race last year, but I get where you're coming from.

[emailking]

So for my Atlas peeps who were politically aware at the time (instead of being a dumb 15-year old who was more concerned with how skinny her jeans were...):

How does this compare to, say, Scott Brown's special election upset in Massachusetts? I do recall commentators heralding that as a pure rejection of Obama (as many will likely say this was a rejection of Biden).  

That was part of it but also because Coakley thought she didn't have to campaign and all and would just win because MA, and voters didn't appreciate that.

[roxas11]

So for my Atlas peeps who were politically aware at the time (instead of being a dumb 15-year old who was more concerned with how skinny her jeans were...):

How does this compare to, say, Scott Brown's special election upset in Massachusetts? I do recall commentators heralding that as a pure rejection of Obama (as many will likely say this was a rejection of Biden).  

it does not compare at all

people thought Scott Brown win was not only the death Obama agenda, but it was also the death of Obamacare

[Greedo punched first]

How is turnout compared to a normal midterm?

[VBM]

Dems need to give up on wokeness, get stricter on Manchin/Sinema so that we can actually get legislative accomplishments, and improve their messaging. It still baffles me how Dem politicians are so out of touch that they’re still under the impression that saying the vastly unpopular term “Latinx” is beneficial for them electorally. They should have caught onto this a year ago. They fact that they’re still saying it shows how out of touch they are

[OSR stands with Israel]

Youngkin basically ran how George W Bush would have in a more populist age

[Libertas Vel Mors]

I think the uncomfortable truth here is that part of this is Suburban whitelash after this past year of new conversations about race, not just CRT. That one issue just happens to encapsulate it.

I don't think Suburbanites are as reliable for Democrats as they may think. They are still okay with racism as long as it's in pretty packaging with respectable language.

https://abcnews4.com/news/nation-world/democrat-candidate-in-va-governors-race-argues-too-many-teachers-in-state-are-white

Opposing anti-White racism isn't the same as being okay with racism. It's the opposite.

[Mr. Illini]

So for my Atlas peeps who were politically aware at the time (instead of being a dumb 15-year old who was more concerned with how skinny her jeans were...):

How does this compare to, say, Scott Brown's special election upset in Massachusetts? I do recall commentators heralding that as a pure rejection of Obama (as many will likely say this was a rejection of Biden).  

I don’t think it compares. Brown not only won in solid-blue Mass, but he won Ted Kennedy’s seat. It was an epic upset.

[Alben Barkley]

The fact that red avatars are denying that Democrats had pro-CRT messaging instead of thinking that maybe Democrats should actually speak out against CRT is telling.

Not all of us! If it doesn't exist as everyone keeps saying, nothing to lose by coming out against it! Simply nip the issue in the bud by saying "I absolutely do not support CRT and denounce it in the strongest terms possible. If it's being taught anywhere in this state, we should put a halt to that. I agree with my opponent completely."

This isn't rocket science.

Democratic strategists are too dumb to realize that, apparently.

I'd actually argue it's the opposite problem: They're too smart for their own good. Democrats use their heads and try to appeal to the head of the voter likewise; Republicans think with their guts and likewise appeal to the voters on a gut level. The latter is usually far more powerful, especially when it comes to emotionally charged issues like this. Democrats would do well to stop walking into the trap of "Well actually that's not quite what's happening, the issue is far more nuanced than that and blah blah blah" until it makes voters' eyes glaze over. Slick Willie was so good a campaigner in part because he never did any of that crap. It was all "I  feel your pain," denouncing Sister Souljah, etc. Whether it was genuine or not and whether the issue at hand was even a real issue or not was totally irrelevant. Clinton knew that politics is a game of images and emotions, not facts and logic, and he was a master at it. Today's Democrats (well actually, starting with his VP Al Gore)? Not so much.

[Splash]

Since this thread is apparently for all elections tonight, in NJ-GOV, Cape May shows 100% reported with Murphy winning 53-46. He lost it in 2017 (53-45).

[OSR stands with Israel]

So for my Atlas peeps who were politically aware at the time (instead of being a dumb 15-year old who was more concerned with how skinny her jeans were...):

How does this compare to, say, Scott Brown's special election upset in Massachusetts? I do recall commentators heralding that as a pure rejection of Obama (as many will likely say this was a rejection of Biden).  

This seems more imo to be like a repeat of Conner Lamb win in early 2018 rather than MA 2010/AL 2017.

[DrScholl]

The fact that red avatars are denying that Democrats had pro-CRT messaging instead of thinking that maybe Democrats should actually speak out against CRT is telling.

Not all of us! If it doesn't exist as everyone keeps saying, nothing to lose by coming out against it! Simply nip the issue in the bud by saying "I absolutely do not support CRT and denounce it in the strongest terms possible. If it's being taught anywhere in this state, we should put a halt to that. I agree with my opponent completely."

This isn't rocket science.

Confirming an outright lie serves no purpose. If something isn't part of a curriculum why should Democrats lie and say it is? But I shouldn't even ask you considering how backwards your thinking is. You'd say Democrats should campaign on pardoning Derek Chauvin if you thought it was politically expedient.

[Vespucci]

So for my Atlas peeps who were politically aware at the time (instead of being a dumb 15-year old who was more concerned with how skinny her jeans were...):

How does this compare to, say, Scott Brown's special election upset in Massachusetts? I do recall commentators heralding that as a pure rejection of Obama (as many will likely say this was a rejection of Biden).  

I was even less politically aware (being 6 and all) but a Senate election definitely comes across as more of a referendum on the president than a gubernatorial election.

[Libertas Vel Mors]

No better way for Youngkin to win than seeing Loudoun and Fairfax crown him. Dems need to stay away from the aggressive CRT messaging and embrace something more inclusive and appropriate for middle and high school kids. Could also see Asian parents (like 20% of the demographic here) revolting against making Thomas Jefferson, probably the best high school in the country academically, lottery based as opposed to merit centered. Although it’s pretty laughable to think a more leftist candidate would win VA at all; I could see the Republican winning Loudoun  and cracking 40% in Fairfax at that point. Abandoning the suburbanites would be a huge mistake because I can safely say the WWC is not going to come back if we leave the party.

Please point me to the Democratic Party's "aggressive CRT messaging." I'd love to see it.

https://spectrumnews1.com/ky/louisville/news/2021/04/27/biden-100-days-race

That's not critical race theory, that's common sense. After you had a black man murdered by a white police officer on video there is no way that you can avoid addressing racism any longer. Much of the Republican whining over critical race theory really is just a cover for the fact that they can no longer truly pretend that racism isn't a problem.

Okay. It was less than a month ago that Bill de Blasio ended New York gifted and talented schools (or, tried to), because they weren't sufficiently enough for you. Is the Mayor of America's largest city Democratic enough for you? Terry McAuliffe said that Virginia's public schools needed to be made more diverse because they were too White. Is Terry McAuliffe Democratic enough for you?

McAuliffe made a valid point, even if it was poorly phrased. Racial parity among educators will become less of an issue as today's students become tomorrow's teachers. And that isn't really "teaching CRT in schools".

No, he said something racist.

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1455698335785013249?t=RXnZI5FYp-XhVF_tJgs9...

[Big Abraham]

Also despite trying to falsely paint YoungKing (lol, thanks for the meme OSR) as an anti-vaxxer simply for being against mandates, McAuliffe has been very anti-science on the Covid issue by citing massively inflated numbers of child hospitalizations despite the fact it has been debunked numerous times and that children have an incredibly low risk for Covid, despite this TMac was pushing for vaccine mandates for anyone 12 and up, completely not in line with the science and part of this larger obsession with just vaccinating as many people as possible without listening to the data. Can't say he'll be missed

[TodayJunior]

That Delta 8 gummy kicked in right about now!!! DRAMA DRAMA DRAMA!!!
Y'all all need to get in on this.

[JMT]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1455699932782989312?s=20

[AGA]

68% on PreidctIt that Youngkin will win by more than 3 points.