Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[Lemmiwinks]

So for my Atlas peeps who were politically aware at the time (instead of being a dumb 15-year old who was more concerned with how skinny her jeans were...):

How does this compare to, say, Scott Brown's special election upset in Massachusetts? I do recall commentators heralding that as a pure rejection of Obama (as many will likely say this was a rejection of Biden).  

Nowhere near as surprising as that was.

[Woody]

Remember the just a few hours ago McAuliffe was secure because of 'muh turnout'?

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

I think the uncomfortable truth here is that part of this is Suburban whitelash after this past year of new conversations about race, not just CRT. That one issue just happens to encapsulate it.

I don't think Suburbanites are as reliable for Democrats as they may think. They are still okay with racism as long as it's in pretty packaging with respectable language.

Ah yes, already blaming election losses on racism. Classic dems. Never going to actually self-reflect as to why people don't support them! It's not like I've been telling you guys for the past month!

[StateBoiler]

Youngkin's margin as percentage reporting has steadily been going up has been staying right around 200k.

Meanwhile Ciattarelli's vote difference is still slipping backwards. Still early days there in comparison to Virginia.

[jamestroll]

I TRIED TO TELL YOU ALL THAT BIDEN MARGINS WERE NOT REALISTIC IN NOVA BUT..

WITH THE CLIMATE AND ALL THE LOCAL ISSUES.. IT IS STILL HOLDING IMPRESSIVELY DEM

BUT DEMS CAN STILL WIN VA IF THEY DO BETTER WITH WWC

[Del Tachi]

So for my Atlas peeps who were politically aware at the time (instead of being a dumb 15-year old who was more concerned with how skinny her jeans were...):

How does this compare to, say, Scott Brown's special election upset in Massachusetts? I do recall commentators heralding that as a pure rejection of Obama (as many will likely say this was a rejection of Biden). 

I don’t think it compares. Brown not only won in solid-blue Mass, but he won Ted Kennedy’s seat. It was an epic upset.

Brown’s win also had more implications for Obama’s legislative agenda.  VA is a local race, at the end is the day

[Podgy the Bear]

Since this thread is apparently for all elections tonight, in NJ-GOV, Cape May shows 100% reported with Murphy winning 53-46. He lost it in 2017 (53-45).

In this regard, the Democrats have done better than 1993 or 2009 with a gubernatorial spliit.

[LAB-LIB]

The national environment will certainly be better for Democrats next year, as the economy improves and as the issues with the supply chain get sorted out. The problem is, that only means better than 12 points worse than they did in 2020. They have a LOT of work to do to win back what they've lost.

"as the economy improves"

This was supposed to be a V shaped year with a massive economic recovery and double digit growth.

Instead, it's been anything but.

It's possible that a general decline of coronavirus could bring the world economy, and thus the US, higher. But with the virus having actually gotten worse since Biden took office, and with inflation etc on track to only continue to grow, there's no reason to think the economy will just magically improve over the next 12 months. It could -- but it could also stay stagnant, or fall.

Uh coronavirus has not gotten worse. When Biden took office, we were at over 200,000 cases per day. They're still high today, but less than half that. The only reason why they're as high as they are right now is because of people choosing not to get vaccinated. And the CDC just authorized Pfizer in children ages 5-11.

[Mr. Reactionary]

Very excite

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=MxIz9djtw80

[Alben Barkley]

The fact that red avatars are denying that Democrats had pro-CRT messaging instead of thinking that maybe Democrats should actually speak out against CRT is telling.

Not all of us! If it doesn't exist as everyone keeps saying, nothing to lose by coming out against it! Simply nip the issue in the bud by saying "I absolutely do not support CRT and denounce it in the strongest terms possible. If it's being taught anywhere in this state, we should put a halt to that. I agree with my opponent completely."

This isn't rocket science.

Confirming an outright lie serves no purpose. If something isn't part of a curriculum why should Democrats lie and say it is? But I shouldn't even ask you considering how backwards your thinking is. You'd say Democrats should campaign on pardoning Derek Chauvin if you thought it was politically expedient.

You agree that the boogeyman would be bad if he was real. That's not the same as acknowledging the boogeyman is real. But it does serve to deflate your opponent's attempts to portray you as pro-boogeyman.

Again, not rocket science.

As for that last sentence, it's totally false and defamatory. But that said, Democrats frankly need more people like me who think in terms of what's "politically expedient" and pragmatic. Otherwise Republicans will just wipe us out over and over again.

[Greedo punched first]

Gubernatorial elections tend to be less partisan than Senate. Scott Brown won a Senate race. O can’t imagine Youngkin winning one.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

The fact that red avatars are denying that Democrats had pro-CRT messaging instead of thinking that maybe Democrats should actually speak out against CRT is telling.

Not all of us! If it doesn't exist as everyone keeps saying, nothing to lose by coming out against it! Simply nip the issue in the bud by saying "I absolutely do not support CRT and denounce it in the strongest terms possible. If it's being taught anywhere in this state, we should put a halt to that. I agree with my opponent completely."

This isn't rocket science.

Democratic strategists are too dumb to realize that, apparently.

Imo, the Democrat Lib base (pro-CRT) becomes so big, they can't go hard against it. Defundig police, CRT and other Racist Woke stuff. That's, why I usually say, that Demographics in on GOP side 

[PoliticsWatcher1]

Youngkin basically ran how George W Bush would have in a more populist age

And just like Bush, he ran a very focused campaign.

[H. Ross Peron]

Should have run Perriello.

[Bootes Void]

I don't think this isn't solely backlash to CRT but to overall wokeness taking over. We'll see if it dies does down which I think it does

[Ferguson97]

The fact that red avatars are denying that Democrats had pro-CRT messaging instead of thinking that maybe Democrats should actually speak out against CRT is telling.

Not all of us! If it doesn't exist as everyone keeps saying, nothing to lose by coming out against it! Simply nip the issue in the bud by saying "I absolutely do not support CRT and denounce it in the strongest terms possible. If it's being taught anywhere in this state, we should put a halt to that. I agree with my opponent completely."

This isn't rocket science.

Democratic strategists are too dumb to realize that, apparently.

Imo, the Democrat Lib base (pro-CRT) becomes so big, they can't go hard against it. Defundig police, CRT and other Racist Woke stuff. That's, why I usually say, that Demographics in on GOP side 

Democrats do not support CRT and defund, this is a fantasy that exists in your head.

[NHI]

The fact that red avatars are denying that Democrats had pro-CRT messaging instead of thinking that maybe Democrats should actually speak out against CRT is telling.

Not all of us! If it doesn't exist as everyone keeps saying, nothing to lose by coming out against it! Simply nip the issue in the bud by saying "I absolutely do not support CRT and denounce it in the strongest terms possible. If it's being taught anywhere in this state, we should put a halt to that. I agree with my opponent completely."



This isn't rocket science.

Democratic strategists are too dumb to realize that, apparently.

I'd actually argue it's the opposite problem: They're too smart for their own good. Democrats use their heads and try to appeal to the head of the voter likewise; Republicans think with their guts and likewise appeal to the voters on a gut level. The latter is usually far more powerful, especially when it comes to emotionally charged issues like this. Democrats would do well to stop walking into the trap of "Well actually that's not quite what's happening, the issue is far more nuanced than that and blah blah blah" until it makes voters' eyes glaze over. Slick Willie was so good a campaigner in part because he never did any of that crap. It was all "I  feel your pain," denouncing Sister Souljah, etc. Whether it was genuine or not and whether the issue at hand was even a real issue or not was totally irrelevant. Clinton knew that politics is a game of images and emotions, not facts and logic, and he was a master at it. Today's Democrats (well actually, starting with his VP Al Gore)? Not so much.

Reason 2022 why Clinton was/is the best politician the Democrats have put up.

[Associate Justice PiT]

It's noteworthy that both Georgia and Virginia showed a lot of polling momentum for the winners...something to pay attention to.

     That is a good point. I think people just tended to assume that poll numbers are stable unless they have reason to move, but that assumption may be false. If people around you are switching from one candidate to another, it likely creates pressure on you to do the same. Obviously this does not apply in a strict sense or else poll numbers would only ever go in one direction barring major developments, but large late momentum towards one candidate seems to be a strong indicator of victory. I went conservative and guessed McAuliffe by 1.2, but that was mainly because I did not want to believe in momentum just because it was convenient for me to do so.

[wbrocks67]

Something else that is obvious - young voters just didn't show up, and the electorate that did was pretty R.

McAuliffe still only winning 18-29 year olds by 7% in updated exit. That's just horrific for that age group for a Dem. Don't imagine young people actually like Youngkin, so just a matter of young Dems not showing up.

[Ferguson97]

One thing I will say is that it seems extremely difficult to perform an autopsy when voters oppose you for positions that you don’t even hold.

[Figueira]

So for my Atlas peeps who were politically aware at the time (instead of being a dumb 15-year old who was more concerned with how skinny her jeans were...):

How does this compare to, say, Scott Brown's special election upset in Massachusetts? I do recall commentators heralding that as a pure rejection of Obama (as many will likely say this was a rejection of Biden).  

I was fourteen but I lived in Massachusetts and I paid some attention to the race. I don't think the comparison makes sense. A Republican winning a gubernatorial race in a mildly Democratic state is very different from a Republican winning a Senate election in an extremely Democratic state. That said, Scott Brown succeeded because of how non-nationalized the race was. If it was purely a referendum on Obama and national Democrats, Coakley would be in the Senate instead of Warren.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Youngkin basically ran how George W Bush would have in a more populist age

Yeah. CRT wasn't the only message on education. Youngkin ran on increasing teacher pay and "passing the largest education budget in state history."

[Vespucci]

also don't blame me I supported Carroll Foy

[swf541]

So for my Atlas peeps who were politically aware at the time (instead of being a dumb 15-year old who was more concerned with how skinny her jeans were...):

How does this compare to, say, Scott Brown's special election upset in Massachusetts? I do recall commentators heralding that as a pure rejection of Obama (as many will likely say this was a rejection of Biden).  

The Scott Brown victory was much more of a shocker and impactful then this and also completely morale crushing at least to me.

[OSR stands with Israel]

It’s just not CRT but a backlash to the national dem agenda in general . VA while a blue state isn’t that blue like say OR