Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[roxas11]

People are writing McAuliffe's obituary way too early.
He still has a sizable chance to win still. And he has a bunch of votes banked in with early voting.

Im not wriiting McAuliffe's obituary at all

especially not based on 1 outlier poll that does not even match up with a poll that literally came out yesterday showing McAuliffe ahead by 1

The fact is, no other poll is showing results even close to this and again, not even the Trafalgar group has put out a poll like this

Not yet. But I'm sure Trafalgar will drop something and if it's Youngkin by double digits, that will translate to him winning. However, if it's a single digit Youngkin lead, maybe there is still hope.

There is no question that  the Trafalgar group will most likely put out a poll showing a decent lead for Glenn youngkin but still even they may not be willing to go as far as fox and put out a poll showing him winning by 8 points..

[Progressive Pessimist]

If Terry does lose, does it indicate more of a bad State and National environment for Dems or is Terry legitimately a horrible candidate?

Both indeed, because even a somewhat horrible candidate should have been able to win here at this point. It will suggest that polarization isn't something Democrats benefit from like Republicans do, and that educated suburbanites are not a loyal enough demographic to be part of a consistently winning Democratic coalition that can save the country from an encroaching aura of right wing politics.

[wbrocks67]

Posted this in the poll thread but interested to get others thoughts-

What I think is interesting here is the comparison to CA, in that we had the same issue in CA where pollsters did not understand who was going to show up, and expected a very large turnout edge from Rs.

Now, things reversed course in CA and polls got better for Newsom towards the end. But was that because things truly turned around in a matter of weeks, or pollsters had a better understanding of who actually was showing up? Partisanship took control, but I think what was also prudent for pollsters at the time was how big the early/mail vote was. It was undeniable from the beginning that Democrats were voting in larger numbers than Republicans, and IIRC, pollsters got savvy to this and realized that a LV model where Rs are getting massive turnout wasn't happening.

Now, Virginia does not have registration by partisan so we can't see who is turning out. One wonders if things would be any different if we knew exactly who was turning out in the Early Vote. Could easily show that Rs *are* turning out, but it's an unknown that I think that was something that affected pollsters models in CA towards the end. If we didn't have a party ID for who those mail ballots were, it's possible pollsters might've continued to think Rs had a turnout edge.

Just food for thought and something to think about if T-Mac outperforms the polls

[BigSerg]

Desperation...
https://twitter.com/TerryMcAuliffe/status/1453871622734163994?s=20

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

very bold move by fox

Its one thing to claim glenn youngkin will win but a blowout not even the Trafalgar Group is willing to go that far...

fox is truly on their own island on this one because not a single other poll, including the ones that came out yesterday showed anybody leading by more than 1 or 3 points

bottom line either their results will be correct on election day or fox news is about to become the biggest joke in polling history

Willing? It seems like you think, that Trafalgar and Fox make up a numbers instead of just putting out, what they get.

[DaleCooper]

If Terry does lose, does it indicate more of a bad State and National environment for Dems or is Terry legitimately a horrible candidate?

The message whether he wins or loses is that the Democratic Party needs to immediately drop everything that's associated with gated-community, college professor liberalism and develop an inclusive platform that revolves around job security and affordable healthcare and, most of all, presents the stance that "The personal is not political." I've been saying this for so long as has everyone who doesn't live in Beverly Hills, and why the Democrats haven't figured this out yet is beyond me. If Democrats had declined to walk down the path of being the party of social engineering, we never would've had Trump and we also wouldn't have seen the comically extreme decline that the Democrats have had in every single rural and exurban county nationwide.

All that said, I still find this Fox poll tough to believe, and also don't forget, if Youngkin wins by a point or two, the +8 poll would still be a bit dreadful even if it falls on the winning side. We'll see.

[BigSerg]

If Terry does lose, does it indicate more of a bad State and National environment for Dems or is Terry legitimately a horrible candidate?

The message whether he wins or loses is that the Democratic Party needs to immediately drop everything that's associated with gated-community, college professor liberalism and develop an inclusive platform that revolves around job security and affordable healthcare and, most of all, presents the stance that "The personal is not political." I've been saying this for so long as has everyone who doesn't live in Beverly Hills, and why the Democrats haven't figured this out yet is beyond me. If Democrats had declined to walk down the path of being the party of social engineering, we never would've had Trump and we also wouldn't have seen the comically extreme decline that the Democrats have had in every single rural and exurban county nationwide.

All that said, I still find this Fox poll tough to believe, and also don't forget, if Youngkin wins by a point or two, the +8 poll would still be a bit dreadful even if it falls on the winning side. We'll see.

Obviously this poll is bullsh**t haha but the democrats have real problems.

[wbrocks67]

very bold move by fox

Its one thing to claim glenn youngkin will win but a blowout not even the Trafalgar Group is willing to go that far...

fox is truly on their own island on this one because not a single other poll, including the ones that came out yesterday showed anybody leading by more than 1 or 3 points

bottom line either their results will be correct on election day or fox news is about to become the biggest joke in polling history

Willing? It seems like you think, that Trafalgar and Fox make up a numbers instead of just putting out, what they get.

Fox, no. Trafalgar? Probably.

[BigSerg]

Take it with a grain of salt, but I was just told that Quinnipiac has horrible data for Biden/McAuliffe. They may be trolling me, but I'll just say this.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

What I think is interesting here is the comparison to CA, in that we had the same issue in CA where pollsters did not understand who was going to show up, and expected a very large turnout edge from Rs.

Now, things reversed course in CA and polls got better for Newsom towards the end. But was that because things truly turned around in a matter of weeks, or pollsters had a better understanding of who actually was showing up?

Pollsters have no "understanding" that they change from poll to poll. They have a model, based on historical pattern (if there is a voter file) and on what the voters actually say to pollsters.

So, what happened is that the (D) voters started to say to pollsters, that they are gonna vote/already voted/enthusiastic to vote etc. Pollsters don't make up this like hmmm, it feels like more young Democrats start to vote, let's change the LV-screen matrix.

[Progressive Pessimist]

If Terry does lose, does it indicate more of a bad State and National environment for Dems or is Terry legitimately a horrible candidate?

The message whether he wins or loses is that the Democratic Party needs to immediately drop everything that's associated with gated-community, college professor liberalism and develop an inclusive platform that revolves around job security and affordable healthcare and, most of all, presents the stance that "The personal is not political." I've been saying this for so long as has everyone who doesn't live in Beverly Hills, and why the Democrats haven't figured this out yet is beyond me. If Democrats had declined to walk down the path of being the party of social engineering, we never would've had Trump and we also wouldn't have seen the comically extreme decline that the Democrats have had in every single rural and exurban county nationwide.

All that said, I still find this Fox poll tough to believe, and also don't forget, if Youngkin wins by a point or two, the +8 poll would still be a bit dreadful even if it falls on the winning side. We'll see.

I think the California recall spoiled McAuliffe into thinking that the same thing would work for him as it did there.

But yes, you're right. As much as Americans should care about Trump's continued grip on the Republican Party yielding things like the insurrection or the fostering of conspiracy theories, we sadly need to play in the field that Americans exist on which is one of tangible things that scare them. It's going to be very frustrating but we have to do it for the sake of the party and the country, which are intrinsically linked together.

[Duke of York]

Take it with a grain of salt, but I was just told that Quinnipiac has horrible data for Biden/McAuliffe. They may be trolling me, but I'll just say this.

If that is true I'm calling the election now. I expect Democrats to only win New Jersey barely and NYC by a lot.

[Spectator]

What I think is interesting here is the comparison to CA, in that we had the same issue in CA where pollsters did not understand who was going to show up, and expected a very large turnout edge from Rs.

Now, things reversed course in CA and polls got better for Newsom towards the end. But was that because things truly turned around in a matter of weeks, or pollsters had a better understanding of who actually was showing up?

Pollsters have no "understanding" that they change from poll to poll. They have a model, based on historical pattern (if there is a voter file) and on what the voters actually say to pollsters.

So, what happened is that the (D) voters started to say to pollsters, that they are gonna vote/already voted/enthusiastic to vote etc. Pollsters don't make up this like hmmm, it feels like more young Democrats start to vote, let's change the LV-screen matrix.

You pour guys getting so hyped up for a Youngkin win really need to tame expectations. This has Democratic version of Florida/Iowa/Ohio all over it.

[Duke of York]

What I think is interesting here is the comparison to CA, in that we had the same issue in CA where pollsters did not understand who was going to show up, and expected a very large turnout edge from Rs.

Now, things reversed course in CA and polls got better for Newsom towards the end. But was that because things truly turned around in a matter of weeks, or pollsters had a better understanding of who actually was showing up?

Pollsters have no "understanding" that they change from poll to poll. They have a model, based on historical pattern (if there is a voter file) and on what the voters actually say to pollsters.

So, what happened is that the (D) voters started to say to pollsters, that they are gonna vote/already voted/enthusiastic to vote etc. Pollsters don't make up this like hmmm, it feels like more young Democrats start to vote, let's change the LV-screen matrix.

You pour guys getting so hyped up for a Youngkin win really need to tame expectations. This has Democratic version of Florida/Iowa/Ohio all over it.

You therefore think Youngkin will lose?

[wbrocks67]

Take it with a grain of salt, but I was just told that Quinnipiac has horrible data for Biden/McAuliffe. They may be trolling me, but I'll just say this.

told by who? lol

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Calling the race for Youngkin

[Person Man]

Take it with a grain of salt, but I was just told that Quinnipiac has horrible data for Biden/McAuliffe. They may be trolling me, but I'll just say this.

told by who? lol

It would be great to know

[EJ24]

This just feels very Coakley vs Scott Brown 2010 Massachussetts to me.

My gut says this ends badly for Terry in a state that is supposed to be lean D. My gut is seldom wrong.

[Spectator]

What I think is interesting here is the comparison to CA, in that we had the same issue in CA where pollsters did not understand who was going to show up, and expected a very large turnout edge from Rs.

Now, things reversed course in CA and polls got better for Newsom towards the end. But was that because things truly turned around in a matter of weeks, or pollsters had a better understanding of who actually was showing up?

Pollsters have no "understanding" that they change from poll to poll. They have a model, based on historical pattern (if there is a voter file) and on what the voters actually say to pollsters.

So, what happened is that the (D) voters started to say to pollsters, that they are gonna vote/already voted/enthusiastic to vote etc. Pollsters don't make up this like hmmm, it feels like more young Democrats start to vote, let's change the LV-screen matrix.

You pour guys getting so hyped up for a Youngkin win really need to tame expectations. This has Democratic version of Florida/Iowa/Ohio all over it.

You therefore think Youngkin will lose?

I have been loudly and obnoxiously banging the Safe D Virginia drum, yes.

[wbrocks67]

Would love it if there was a Wapo/Scholar poll. They were dead on in 2017 AND 2020.

[Duke of York]

What I think is interesting here is the comparison to CA, in that we had the same issue in CA where pollsters did not understand who was going to show up, and expected a very large turnout edge from Rs.

Now, things reversed course in CA and polls got better for Newsom towards the end. But was that because things truly turned around in a matter of weeks, or pollsters had a better understanding of who actually was showing up?

Pollsters have no "understanding" that they change from poll to poll. They have a model, based on historical pattern (if there is a voter file) and on what the voters actually say to pollsters.

So, what happened is that the (D) voters started to say to pollsters, that they are gonna vote/already voted/enthusiastic to vote etc. Pollsters don't make up this like hmmm, it feels like more young Democrats start to vote, let's change the LV-screen matrix.

You pour guys getting so hyped up for a Youngkin win really need to tame expectations. This has Democratic version of Florida/Iowa/Ohio all over it.

You therefore think Youngkin will lose?

I have been loudly and obnoxiously banging the Safe D Virginia drum, yes.

I hope your right I really do.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

What I think is interesting here is the comparison to CA, in that we had the same issue in CA where pollsters did not understand who was going to show up, and expected a very large turnout edge from Rs.

Now, things reversed course in CA and polls got better for Newsom towards the end. But was that because things truly turned around in a matter of weeks, or pollsters had a better understanding of who actually was showing up?

Pollsters have no "understanding" that they change from poll to poll. They have a model, based on historical pattern (if there is a voter file) and on what the voters actually say to pollsters.

So, what happened is that the (D) voters started to say to pollsters, that they are gonna vote/already voted/enthusiastic to vote etc. Pollsters don't make up this like hmmm, it feels like more young Democrats start to vote, let's change the LV-screen matrix.

You pour guys getting so hyped up for a Youngkin win really need to tame expectations. This has Democratic version of Florida/Iowa/Ohio all over it.

I think, I have fairly tamed expectations. My base scenario is still Tilt-ro-Lean-D, but not gonna lie, latest polls and especially this one have made me feel the possibility of Youngkin's win starting to takes shape. Like 2-3 weeks ago, I thought Youngkin needed a perfect storm, and now I'm starting to feel the wind and see the first lightings before the storm. But, perhaps, it'll just go away.

[OSR stands with Israel]

The fact that the democrats in Virginia don’t want parents involved in their kid’s education is horrifying and I hope the voters of Virginia punish them for it

[EJ24]

The fact that the democrats in Virginia don’t want parents involved in their kid’s education is horrifying and I hope the voters of Virginia punish them for it

This is just such a bizarre talking point. How do you even dignify crap like this with an argument?

[BigSerg]

Take it with a grain of salt, but I was just told that Quinnipiac has horrible data for Biden/McAuliffe. They may be trolling me, but I'll just say this.

told by who? lol

It would be great to know

A friend who works there, but he's trolled me before so I ignore his bullsh**t. I know for sure he works there, but I doubt the data.