AZ-SEN 2022 Megathread: Mastering the Art of the Thiel

[Alben Barkley]

This entire thing is a hot mess and this just makes it even worse for Masters. Kelly can now call him a liar and someone who's willing to just say whatever to get elected.

Masters is now *lying* about his previous stance. He's just digging himself into a bigger hole

https://twitter.com/bgmasters/status/1562813594588176388

He’s also lying about the Democratic position. It’s not “no limits of any kind, ever.” Kelly even said he opposes partial-birth/very late-term abortion.

Anyway, as more and more Americans look around and see horror stories coming out of red states that have actually implemented these Draconian laws, the less willing they (especially women voters and independents) will be willing to buy the s—t the GOP is trying to sell. Especially in a Western purple state like Arizona.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I wouldn't be surprised if Lake overperforms masters lol. To my knowledge, she hasn't advocated for getting rid of social security or banning birth control

[xavier110]

I wouldn't be surprised if Lake overperforms masters lol. To my knowledge, she hasn't advocated for getting rid of social security or banning birth control

She probably does. She is also well known, since she’s been on TV for decades here. Masters is a nobody.

Another factor: AZ Sen has a libertarian on the ballot, while Gov has no third parties, just a two way race.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

R SuperPac just cancelled And buys in AZ and AK MURKOWSKI AND KELLY SAFE


https://www.yahoo.com/news/senate-gop-super-pac-cancels-180814020.html

[Pollster]

McConnell super PAC pulling out of Arizona.

UPDATE: They've only canceled half of their buy, still not a vote of confidence but not pulling out entirely.

https://twitter.com/brahmresnik/status/1563229750507683840?s=20&t=oU8tKjo52B...

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

McConnell super PAC pulling out of Arizona.

UPDATE: They've only canceled half of their buy, still not a vote of confidence but not pulling out entirely.

https://twitter.com/brahmresnik/status/1563229750507683840?s=20&t=oU8tKjo52B...

MT Treasurer is right, GOP officials are incompetent. But hey, I'm not gonna complain lol

[Gracile]

Pretty dumb move IMO as Arizona is still an incredibly close state where Masters could easily be carried over the line.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Pretty dumb move IMO as Arizona is still an incredibly close state where Masters could easily be carried over the line.

Evidently their polling suggests otherwise.  This would seem to suggest the polls showing Kelly with massive leads were either accurate or close enough that Republicans decided to cut bait instead of throwing good money after the bad.

[Xing]

If Republicans lose AZ and PA, it’s very hard to see them flipping the Senate.

[xavier110]

McConnell super PAC pulling out of Arizona.

UPDATE: They've only canceled half of their buy, still not a vote of confidence but not pulling out entirely.

https://twitter.com/brahmresnik/status/1563229750507683840?s=20&t=oU8tKjo52B...

They have really not found an angle to damage Kelly. And again, I’ve said this before but this race and GA are somewhat anomalous, since there is a perception that we just voted for him, why dump him now.

[Not Me, Us]

I feel like all I ever see is the GOP pulling spending from competitive races. Are they actually spending money anywhere? Where's it all going?

[Roll Roons]

I feel like all I ever see is the GOP pulling spending from competitive races. Are they actually spending money anywhere? Where's it all going?

They have to drop $28M on a race that shouldn’t even be in play because someone can’t fundraise or campaign for s**t.

[Pollster]

I feel like all I ever see is the GOP pulling spending from competitive races. Are they actually spending money anywhere? Where's it all going?

They have to drop $28M on a race that shouldn’t even be in play because someone can’t fundraise or campaign for s**t.

Perfect example of how bad candidates can damage the party beyond the race they are running in.

[Brittain33]

They can’t be giving up on Arizona. Something else is going on here.

[prag_prog]

imo I think it's bit stupid for GOP to shift money from AZ to Ohio. It looks like they are concerned about their internal polling in Ohio but I personally think polling in Ohio is broken..it's the one state where polls have been absolutely garbage in every cycle since 2014.Even if the environment in November is D+4 and Vance not being a good candidate, I just can't see GOP losing a Senate race in Ohio these days. Especially when they are not even up against Sherrod Brown

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

imo I think it's bit stupid for GOP to shift money from AZ to Ohio. It looks like they are concerned about their internal polling in Ohio but I personally think polling in Ohio is broken..it's the one state where polls have been absolutely garbage in every cycle since 2014.Even if the environment in November is D+4 and Vance not being a good candidate, I just can't see GOP losing a Senate race in Ohio these days. Especially when they are not even up against Sherrod Brown

Brown is very concerned about losing against Josh Mandel in 2024 the Rs have held this seat for 25 yrs  Brown said on Natl TV that if Ryan loses he will be defeated in 2024, lol the only race that is safe is the Gov race DeWine is leading by 15 pts

[GALeftist]

If I were McConnell you wouldn't catch me dead spending a dime in Ohio until every dollar supporting Mark Kelly was matched 1 to 1. Never interrupt your enemy as they make a mistake, though.

Side note: Republicans have a great bench in Ohio and it's not every day that a Senate seat is just up for grabs. Why and how did the field get whittled down to Vance, Mandel, and Dolan? Seems bizarre to me. Same thing happened in Pennsylvania. Surely there was some House rep or row officer who was sufficiently Trumpy.

[Cyrusman]

McConnell super PAC pulling out of Arizona.

UPDATE: They've only canceled half of their buy, still not a vote of confidence but not pulling out entirely.

https://twitter.com/brahmresnik/status/1563229750507683840?s=20&t=oU8tKjo52B...

Any chance they are doing this to push Thiel to open his checkbook back up?

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

I feel like all I ever see is the GOP pulling spending from competitive races. Are they actually spending money anywhere? Where's it all going?

I think this means that their internals are terrible and that they think the absurd numbers Dems are pulling in (double digits in swing states) are close enough that they are going into damage control mode.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

I feel like all I ever see is the GOP pulling spending from competitive races. Are they actually spending money anywhere? Where's it all going?

Fwiw Oz actually has ads up on the air in Pennsylvania for the first time since the primary.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It won't matter by the end of Sept we're gonna early vote anyways and the early VBM is going heavily for D's anyways all those Early votes are gonna be banked for Fetterman

[Progressive Pessimist]

If Republicans lose AZ and PA, it’s very hard to see them flipping the Senate.

It's even worse than that if Wisconsin ends up actually being as competitive as recent polls with Barnes leading suggest. Even if it doesn't flip, it spreads their resources even thinner and makes the Democrats' path to defending the big three and flipping Pennsylvania even easier.

[Pollster]

Side note: Republicans have a great bench in Ohio and it's not every day that a Senate seat is just up for grabs. Why and how did the field get whittled down to Vance, Mandel, and Dolan? Seems bizarre to me. Same thing happened in Pennsylvania. Surely there was some House rep or row officer who was sufficiently Trumpy.

Probably a mix of a) not having the energy or general wherewithal to run in/raise money for a competitive primary where defeat was a very real prospect and the endorsement of one man could end the campaign virtually overnight and b) the Senate in its current form being an incredibly unappealing place to work, as we saw in various news stories earlier in the cycle.

[here2view]

Rick Scott is incompetent and Blake Masters is a fraud.

[wbrocks67]

I feel like all I ever see is the GOP pulling spending from competitive races. Are they actually spending money anywhere? Where's it all going?

Fwiw Oz actually has ads up on the air in Pennsylvania for the first time since the primary.

Those are still mostly CLF ads lol. Oz is still broke himself.