Biden approval ratings thread, 1.0

[pbrower2a]

N.H.      
AUG 24-26, 2021
A/B
Saint Anselm College
1,855   RV
https://www.anselm.edu/sites/default/files/Documents/NHIOP/Polls/SACSurveyBook821.pdf


Job Approval:
Biden 44/55
Sununu 64/34
Shaheen 48/46
Hassan 44/48
Pappas 42/42
Kuster 43/42

Generic: R+3

New Hampshire Institute of Politics Executive Director Neil Levesque summarized the results, saying, “President Joe Biden’s job approval is collapsing in New Hampshire, putting Democratic incumbents in jeopardy. From an 8-point net approval in February, Biden’s job approval has inverted and now sits at 44%-55%, slightly worse than Donald Trump (45%-55%) in our pre-election poll last fall; 49% of voters strongly disapprove of his performance. 62% of voters now think that the country is on the wrong track, up from 55% in February, while only 28% think we’re on the right track. Most ominous for New Hampshire’s all-Democratic congressional delegation, the generic congressional ballot has swung to the Republicans (46%-43%) for the first time in the history of this poll.

“Biden’s job approval has steadily declined since he took office in response to several challenges. In this poll, he is bearing the responsibility for the current situation in Afghanistan (44%) more than his predecessors (Bush 27%, Trump 13%, and Obama 4%). This is energizing Republicans: 43% of voters are more inclined to vote for Republican candidates in next year’s election based on Biden’s handling of the situation, versus 14% that are more inclined to vote for Democratic candidates. This polarization is driving a voter intensity disparity benefitting Republicans: 97% of Republican voters disapprove of Biden’s performance versus only 85% of Democratic voters that approve. 92% of Republican voters would vote for a congressional candidate from their party today versus only 86% of Democratic voters who would vote for a candidate from their party.

Key:

30% red shade: Biden up 1-5%
40% red shade: Biden up 5-10%
50% red shade: Biden up 10-15%
60% red shade: Biden up 15-20%
70% red shade: Biden up 20-25%
80% red shade: Biden up 25-30%
90% red shade: Biden up 30%+

50% green shade: tie

30% blue shade: Biden down 1-5%
40% blue shade: Biden down 5-10%
50% blue shade: Biden down 10-15%
60% blue shade: Biden down 15-20%
70% blue shade: Biden down 20-25%
80% blue shade: Biden down 25-30%
90% blue shade: Biden down 30%+

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, Aug. 28-31, 1500 adults including 1262 RV


Adults:

Approve 45 (-1)
Disapprove 44 (nc) (538 is incorrectly showing this as 40)

Strongly approve 21 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 36 (nc)


RV:

Approve 47 (-1)
Disapprove 46 (nc)

Strongly approve 24 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 40 (+2)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

CCM is down by 1o if you are gonna make NH R you might as well with CM too

It's still a 304 map, because Newsom and T Mac are leading I don't care how many polls in NV and NH show R leads

[Matty]

Rasmussen

Approve 42 (-2)
Disapprove 56 (+2)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I wouldn't trust Rasmussen, it's still a 304 not 413 map like Nate Silver says because Rs are gonna get swept in VA, CA, and NJ, REALLY ,YOU TRUST RASSY POLLS

D's are leading in 2021 Election polls but the withdrawal was botched

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rassy polls do phone polls as most other ,media uses internet polls that's why Rassy polls areuch lower than everyone else, as I said before like Biden will be stuck at 45 percent Sept 2022


He should of kept it 49 percent, no one believes that Trump is gonna be Prez after Insurrectionists, if he does he becomes an instant LAME DUCK AND CORY BOOKER OR HARRIS WILL BE PREZ IN 2028

[pbrower2a]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, Aug. 28-31, 1500 adults including 1262 RV


Adults:

Approve 45 (-1)
Disapprove 44 (nc) (538 is incorrectly showing this as 40)

Strongly approve 21 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 36 (nc)


RV:

Approve 47 (-1)
Disapprove 46 (nc)

Strongly approve 24 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 40 (+2)

Considering that the withdrawal from Afghanistan does not allow a quick and easy spin, this isn't too bad for president Biden. 

[Progressive Pessimist]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, Aug. 28-31, 1500 adults including 1262 RV


Adults:

Approve 45 (-1)
Disapprove 44 (nc) (538 is incorrectly showing this as 40)

Strongly approve 21 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 36 (nc)


RV:

Approve 47 (-1)
Disapprove 46 (nc)

Strongly approve 24 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 40 (+2)

Considering that the withdrawal from Afghanistan does not allow a quick and easy spin, this isn't too bad for president Biden. 

It's a sign of our country's continued partisan divide.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Pollsters like Rassy try to get low Approvals use phone polling instead of internet polling that's why Ds will win as long as there is VBM due to Early voting no matter how matter Voter Suppression laws Rs make



Newsom and soon TMac will lead all the VBM and Early vote

That's why we can win FL and OH too DeSantis, Rubio, and either Mandel or Vance look weak

I was an Election judge I know about Provisions Ballots too before the Pandemic when they locked us out of Judges and select the Judges now, everyone can't be a judge and collect 150 til further notice

NH and NV polling are off, with VBM they D's will win

[pbrower2a]

Pollsters like Rassy try to get low Approvals use phone polling instead of internet polling that's why Ds will win as long as there is VBM due to Early voting no matter how matter Voter Suppression laws Rs make



Newsom and soon TMac will lead all the VBM and Early vote

That's why we can win FL and OH too DeSantis, Rubio, and either Mandel or Vance look weak

I was an Election judge I know about Provisions Ballots too before the Pandemic when they locked us out of Judges and select the Judges now, everyone can't be a judge and collect 150 til further notice

NH and NV polling are off, with VBM they D's will win

Many people no longer have landlines. Those who still do tend to be on the Right side of the political spectrum.  Pollsters need recognize demographics.

If you wonder why the pollsters were wrong in 2020... it's because nobody knew how COVID-19 messed up the polling. 

[Ferguson97]

Rasmussen

Approve 42 (-2)
Disapprove 56 (+2)

Lol Rasmussen

[Devils30]

Pollsters like Rassy try to get low Approvals use phone polling instead of internet polling that's why Ds will win as long as there is VBM due to Early voting no matter how matter Voter Suppression laws Rs make



Newsom and soon TMac will lead all the VBM and Early vote

That's why we can win FL and OH too DeSantis, Rubio, and either Mandel or Vance look weak

I was an Election judge I know about Provisions Ballots too before the Pandemic when they locked us out of Judges and select the Judges now, everyone can't be a judge and collect 150 til further notice

NH and NV polling are off, with VBM they D's will win

Many people no longer have landlines. Those who still do tend to be on the Right side of the political spectrum.  Pollsters need recognize demographics.

If you wonder why the pollsters were wrong in 2020... it's because nobody knew how COVID-19 messed up the polling. 

I wonder if some anti-Trump Dems aren't picking up the phone as much anymore and polling is more accurate again. That said, Biden needs to get his approval back up for Dems to have any shot in 22.

[MT Treasurer]

It’s not that uncommon for Republicans to be overpolled in NH, at the very least you’re far less likely to see a D bias in NH than in the Midwest or even NC/FL. Polling like this also led people to believe that Ayotte was more likely to win than Toomey/Johnson or that Shaheen's race was the bellwether race of the 2014 cycle, all of which didn’t transpire. NH polling was also fairly accurate in 2020 at the federal level (in a year in which it was wildly off in general, even in states in which it had traditionally understated D strength like NV/AZ/TX).

Even if Sununu +8 and those Biden disapproval numbers are inflated, the larger pattern clearly isn’t very reassuring for Democrats in any of these battleground states/districts. If Biden’s even slightly underwater in NH, I don’t see them holding the Senate/House.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It’s not that uncommon for Republicans to be overpolled in NH, at the very least you’re far less likely to see a D bias in NH than in the Midwest or even NC/FL. Polling like this also led people to believe that Ayotte was more likely to win than Toomey/Johnson or that Shaheen's race was the bellwether race of the 2014 cycle, all of which didn’t transpire. NH polling was also fairly accurate in 2020 at the federal level (in a year in which it was wildly off in general, even in states in which it had traditionally understated D strength like NV/AZ/TX).

Even if Sununu +8 and those Biden disapproval numbers are inflated, the larger pattern clearly isn’t very reassuring for Democrats in any of these battleground states/districts. If Biden’s even slightly underwater in NH, I don’t see them holding the Senate/House.

It 500 days til Election, Biden Approvals won't be below 50 they will be above 50%

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It’s not that uncommon for Republicans to be overpolled in NH, at the very least you’re far less likely to see a D bias in NH than in the Midwest or even NC/FL. Polling like this also led people to believe that Ayotte was more likely to win than Toomey/Johnson or that Shaheen's race was the bellwether race of the 2014 cycle, all of which didn’t transpire. NH polling was also fairly accurate in 2020 at the federal level (in a year in which it was wildly off in general, even in states in which it had traditionally understated D strength like NV/AZ/TX).

Even if Sununu +8 and those Biden disapproval numbers are inflated, the larger pattern clearly isn’t very reassuring for Democrats in any of these battleground states/districts. If Biden’s even slightly underwater in NH, I don’t see them holding the Senate/House.

Just remember Biden got 80M voted

Every group except WC men 200M to 100M voted D

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Pollsters like Rassy try to get low Approvals use phone polling instead of internet polling that's why Ds will win as long as there is VBM due to Early voting no matter how matter Voter Suppression laws Rs make



Newsom and soon TMac will lead all the VBM and Early vote

That's why we can win FL and OH too DeSantis, Rubio, and either Mandel or Vance look weak

I was an Election judge I know about Provisions Ballots too before the Pandemic when they locked us out of Judges and select the Judges now, everyone can't be a judge and collect 150 til further notice

NH and NV polling are off, with VBM they D's will win

Many people no longer have landlines. Those who still do tend to be on the Right side of the political spectrum.  Pollsters need recognize demographics.

If you wonder why the pollsters were wrong in 2020... it's because nobody knew how COVID-19 messed up the polling. 

Rasmussen>
To reach those who have abandoned traditional landline telephones, Rasmussen Reports uses an online survey tool to interview randomly selected participants from a demographically diverse panel.

[SN2903]

Rasmussen

Approve 42 (-2)
Disapprove 56 (+2)

Lol Rasmussen

It sounds accurate. I think he is 42 43% approval right now.

[Matty]

Ouch

Marist/npr

Approve 43 (-6)
Disapprove 51 (+7)


https://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/NPR_PBS-NewsHour_Marist-Poll_USA-NOS-and-Tables_202109010944.pdf

-19 among whites (surprisingly not too bad)
+68 among blacks
-11 among all other races/groups

[SN2903]

https://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2021/09/NPR_PBS-NewsHour_Marist-Poll_USA-NOS-and-Tables_202109010944.pdf

Biden at 43/51 among both adults and RVs (down from 49/44 in August)

36/55 among independents
34/58 among non-college grads
37/54 among under 45s

e: repost but I'll leave it here for the additional numbers

His support is collapsing. He is low 40s at best right now.

[DaleCooper]

I wonder how much of this is Afghanistan-related and how much of it is COVID-related. From my anecdotal experience, non-partisan Nebraska voters are more disgusted by the COVID situation than Afghanistan.

[Associate Justice PiT]

I wonder how much of this is Afghanistan-related and how much of it is COVID-related. From my anecdotal experience, non-partisan Nebraska voters are more disgusted by the COVID situation than Afghanistan.

     538 has an article making the case that the trend in Biden's approvals is a result of both factors.

[Horus]

I wonder how much of this is Afghanistan-related and how much of it is COVID-related. From my anecdotal experience, non-partisan Nebraska voters are more disgusted by the COVID situation than Afghanistan.

Yeah, in my bubble people are getting annoyed with Biden because he's low energy and not delivering on domestic promises re COVID, healthcare etc. No one is upset about leaving Afghanistan but then again I don't live in Dunwoody or East Cobb.

[SN2903]

I wonder how much of this is Afghanistan-related and how much of it is COVID-related. From my anecdotal experience, non-partisan Nebraska voters are more disgusted by the COVID situation than Afghanistan.

Yeah, in my bubble people are getting annoyed with Biden because he's low energy and not delivering on domestic promises re COVID, healthcare etc. No one is upset about leaving Afghanistan but then again I don't live in Dunwoody or East Cobb.

It's an accumulation of issues in my opinion starting with inflation a few months ago that has continued to be a major issue, the border to a lesser extent, COVID and now Afghanistan. I think the Afghanistan issue is not Afghanistan itself but the fact that the pullout has been so chaotic and disorganized is hurting Biden's approval quite a bit. Over time Afghanistan will fade but it will have an impact of peoples perception of Biden in my opinion. I think he is headed for low 40s approval consistently and I think it stays there.

[GeneralMacArthur]

If Facebook required you to show your vaccination card at login, COVID would be over tomorrow and Biden's approval would go back up to the 50s.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

wbrocks wondered how come pollsters show Biden down by high single digits in Florida and New Hampshire. Well, Marist #s tell it all.

Approve
43/51  (RV)
80/12 (among Biden 2020 voters)
3/95 (among Trump voters)

Strongly:
20/42   (RV)
39/6 (among Biden 2020 voters)
3/87 (among Trump voters)

If it remains as this (big if) = likely big entusiasm problem.