Biden approval ratings thread, 1.0

[Matty]

Pretty mediocre but still ok

The question is this:

Will there ever be a time before nov 22 where his ratings go into the red?

That’s all that matters.

[sting in the rafters]

Monmouth and YouGov both showing Joey <40% with indies, <60% with moderates, and 50+% disapprovals with indies……. Not panic time though this is Ruh Roh Raggy territory.

[It’s so Joever]

It’s over, this will be worse than 2010.

[GeorgiaModerate]

It’s over, this will be worse than 2010.

Don't start.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It’s over, this will be worse than 2010.

What can you expect in a Pandemic, but it's not over with, clearly the Election in 500 days

It's not close to Election at all, the Rs clearly targeted Newsom so they don't get shutout in Redistricting and that strategy has clearly failed

Let's all take a deep breath it's 500 days

[wbrocks67]

Monmouth and YouGov both showing Joey <40% with indies, <60% with moderates, and 50+% disapprovals with indies……. Not panic time though this is Ruh Roh Raggy territory.

I think it's more about the same of Indies. I think pollsters need to do a better job of sifting through which way they lean. Monmouth has 44% Indies in this, way more than Dems/Rs. But if you have an Indie sample that leans 70% Rep/30% Dem, it's going to skew it.

Same thing with YouGov, where Biden has always had terrible ratings with Indies there, even though he won them in the election and other pollsters had much better #s for him with then.

I don't believe Biden has a 19% approval of Rs here, just as i don't believe he only has 86% of Dems or <40% of Indies

[sting in the rafters]

Monmouth and YouGov both showing Joey <40% with indies, <60% with moderates, and 50+% disapprovals with indies……. Not panic time though this is Ruh Roh Raggy territory.

I think it's more about the same of Indies. I think pollsters need to do a better job of sifting through which way they lean. Monmouth has 44% Indies in this, way more than Dems/Rs. But if you have an Indie sample that leans 70% Rep/30% Dem, it's going to skew it.

Same thing with YouGov, where Biden has always had terrible ratings with Indies there, even though he won them in the election and other pollsters had much better #s for him with then.

I don't believe Biden has a 19% approval of Rs here, just as i don't believe he only has 86% of Dems or <40% of Indies

True on Yougov, they're known for having R-leaning indies included. Thing is he's generally been net neutral with them in YouGov's weekly tracking as opposed to underwater by double-digits. We'll have to see whether is this an outlier. Could even be a factor of left-leaning indies upset with a lack of progress on his campaign promises.

Agreed on Monmouth, seeing a 32/44/24 partisan split is laughable. I thought the generally accepted national breakdown was 34/36/30.


I agree that while it is plausible he has that support right now there's no way Biden (or generic D in 2022 for that matter) gets 19% of the R vote nor only 86% of the D vote, they'll come home when it's time.

However, the moderate support is what is concerning. As one can imagine Biden's strength in polling has consistently been strongest with moderates relative to other Ds. That's consistently been in the high-fifties/low-sixties going back to last summer as opposed to the mid-fifties both of them are showing now. We'll see, it's a long road.

[It’s so Joever]

Ah, I see we are at the arguing with polls stage.

[DK_Mo82]

The quick passing of the bill recovery bill with stimulus got expectation for Joe up in the sky. Everyone expected the Infrastrure to be as easy but its now stalled out, Joe needs to get some more read meat for the base, or 22 mid-term will be bad ( as it usually is tbf_) for incumbent party president's.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Election is in 500 days and Rs are loosing California, and 6 Rs are gonna be Redistricted out that's why Rs were targeting Cali in the Recall. Cox has been morphed into Kevin Mccarthy since Mccarthy blocked the Commission even in Conservative Bakersfield

Rs are ads saying they are gonna give a middle tax cut, you can't do that with a Supermajority D State Legislature

If we get 5 Rs out in Cali that boost our H number to 10 seats and with NY and IL and OR that gives 15 seat Majority before Redistricting in FL and TX

Dems can certainly get back seats in IA and SC and get a seat in NC, that's exactly how D's can get back to 225 or 230

I calculated it already and it's 50O Day's til the Election

Senate Ryan, Jackson, Fink should not be underestimated and Gross can win this time he is running not against Sullivan but against Kelly

Kunce whom is pro gun in MO can win too, we have more targets than Rs

[Virginiá]

It’s over, this will be worse than 2010.

Why use 2010? Like what exactly from 2010..? The number of state legislatures lost? House seats? Because given polarization and the fact that Democrats control considerably less seats at just about every level of government, it's basically impossible to be worse than 2010. Democrats controlled 27 state legislatures pre-2010, and 15 after. They control 18 now. Republicans won so much back in 2010 because Democrats were still extremely overextended in territory that Republicans had been winning at the presidential level for years - even decades. Republicans weren't electoral titans wiping the floor in ways never deemed possible. In a way, they were merely taking what they should have already had by that point. Better late than never, I suppose.

If you're talking about the GOP winning the US House popular vote by 6.8% like they did in 2010, then sure, that seems possible on the upper end of GOP victory probabilities. But it isn't even that impressive on its own. Democrats have regularly won bigger midterm vote percentages over the past century, even as recently as 2018 and 2006.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If D's hold the Senate with 52/48 or 51/49 and the H, Manchin will be neutralized and we can pass HR 1 and DC Statehood, Sinema would come around because she will be primaried if she supports the Filibuster on DC Statehood or HR 1 if she co sponsor it

Also the Commission can be reformed not to Prosecute Trump but damage his chances of ever running for Prez

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1404276513176948738

This is laughable like the Biden plus 14 polls which were RV during height of Floyd protests

I still don't understand Biden in stopping the border wall, he knows the H is vulnerable to an R takeover due to TX boarder crisis, Immigration groups have pushed him over too far

Juky QU polls Biden plus 14 and 17 up in WI

Abbott is making his own Red 🧱🧱🧱with 🌮🌮🌮 Mexico

[Progressive Pessimist]

2022 will be a pro-incumbent midterm. 2020 was the worst election to lose in a generation.

Whoever won was going to be credited with Covid fading away, and would be governing over a booming, recovering economy.

Democrats are almost certain to hold the Senate and are narrowly favored to hold the House imo.

The republicans are a party of losers, and without being able to blame somebody as polarizing as Obama (even if he was more qualified to hold the office than Biden), they can't win elections like 2010 and 2014. Republicans need higher turnout now anyway, with their coalition moving away from the suburbs and the upper middle class. Low turnout elections aren't their forte - they need to focus on improving access to in-person early voting, to mitigate the democrats' advantage in vbm.

Republicans should focus on limiting damage for 2022 and hope to turn the tide in 2024.

In a functional country that doesn't constantly reflect patterns, this would be true. But historical precedent really might be all the GOP needs to pull off some sort of victory in 2022. Even 2020 counts as historical precedent repeating itself. Every incumbent President who the economy collapsed under, oversaw a major domestic crisis, or both has lost. Trump defied many expectations throughout his tenure, but he couldn't overcome that or the 2018 results. As such, I fail to see how Biden can overcome them either.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I am not trying to diminish the 60% approvals but we must wait for Mason Dixon polls which will come out before the Election next yr, not this yr, to see  if D's are competetive in Red wall states like IA, NC, GA, OH and FL

RV don't count they are unreliable just like they had Biden plus 17 in WI and WI is a WC state too

We have this same problem in 2016,2018,2020 Hillary was doing well in those red wall states, Cordray was ahead and Biden was competetive in IA and all were lost

WARNOCK is favored but GA is a Mason Dixon state and NH is one too

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

Surprised by how relatively stable Bidens approvals have been way more so than Trumps. We will see if Biden stays above 50% for much longer. So far I dont see a reason why he would go underwater at this point unless the economy starts going under or theres a national crisis the GOP is able to exploit

[It’s so Joever]

It’s over, the communists will win the house and senate forever.
Once they get in power in 2022 and 2024, they will plan their second coup.
We have lost the war for America.

[GeorgiaModerate]

AP/NORC, June 10-14, 1125 adults (prior poll April 29-May 3)

Approve 55 (-8)
Disapprove 44 (+8)

Strongly approve 26 (-8)
Strongly disapprove 29 (+4)


Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), June 16-17, 1002 adults

Approve 52 (-3)
Disapprove 42 (+2)

Approval by party:

D: 86 (-4)
I: 50 (+1)
R: 16 (-4)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It’s over, the communists will win the house and senate forever.
Once they get in power in 2022 and 2024, they will plan their second coup.
We have lost the war for America.

Lol the H is going R and Senate and Govs are staying D 304 blue wall, but if D's can win a red state OH, NC, IA or FL the House is still up for grabs, I am referring to a Neutral cycle when I say Rs take H

NPVI is probably 2.5

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Joe Biden is just another Politician, even Big Govt has limits on how to deal with a Pandemic, and Deregulation didn't work with Trump neither.

We are stuck with Covid even under Biden after he promised Big Govt can solve it

Lol, it's not gonna be a landslide, Biden has the Same Exact Approvals as he had on Election night, it was 51/46% and he is at 51/49% it's a 304 EC MAP

DEMS ARE GONNA NET WI AND PA IN SENATE 52/48, 291 Govs and the H is gonna be close either way 218/217

61% Approvals, make you think it's gonna be a landslide,NO

[pbrower2a]

Joe Biden is just another Politician, even Big Govt has limits on how to deal with a Pandemic, and Deregulation didn't work with Trump neither.

We are stuck with Covid even under Biden after he promised Big Govt can solve it.

Big Government can't save us from "Big Stupid", meaning mass ignorance proud of its own folly. People still do incredibly-stupid things even more catastrophically stupid because of the pointlessness of the stupid deed, like teasing rattlesnakes, using street drugs, extreme speeding, evading safety controls...   

Lol, it's not gonna be a landslide, Biden has the Same Exact Approvals as he had on Election night, it was 51/46% and he is at 51/49% it's a 304 EC MAP

That is the same legal standard as a 49-state landside (or the all-but-two-state landslide of FDR in 1936) that nobody sees happening.

DEMS ARE GONNA NET WI AND PA IN SENATE 52/48, 291 Govs and the H is gonna be close either way 218/217

Toomey knows that he cannot be re-elected. Ron Johnson (a/k/a the Second Joe McCarthy) sees himself invincible despite all indications that he has no chance.

61% Approvals, make you think it's gonna be a landslide,NO

No incumbent President ever has gotten much more than 60% of the vote.

[Bomster]

Joe Biden is just another Politician, even Big Govt has limits on how to deal with a Pandemic, and Deregulation didn't work with Trump neither.

We are stuck with Covid even under Biden after he promised Big Govt can solve it.

Big Government can't save us from "Big Stupid", meaning mass ignorance proud of its own folly. People still do incredibly-stupid things even more catastrophically stupid because of the pointlessness of the stupid deed, like teasing rattlesnakes, using street drugs, extreme speeding, evading safety controls...   

Lol, it's not gonna be a landslide, Biden has the Same Exact Approvals as he had on Election night, it was 51/46% and he is at 51/49% it's a 304 EC MAP

That is the same legal standard as a 49-state landside (or the all-but-two-state landslide of FDR in 1936) that nobody sees happening.

DEMS ARE GONNA NET WI AND PA IN SENATE 52/48, 291 Govs and the H is gonna be close either way 218/217

Toomey knows that he cannot be re-elected. Ron Johnson (a/k/a the Second Joe McCarthy) sees himself invincible despite all indications that he has no chance.

61% Approvals, make you think it's gonna be a landslide,NO

No incumbent President ever has gotten much more than 60% of the vote.

Nixon, Johnson, FDR? Of course though in the modern era a margin in the upper single digits is the closest you can get to a landslide.

[CookieDamage]

2022 will be a pro-incumbent midterm. 2020 was the worst election to lose in a generation.

Whoever won was going to be credited with Covid fading away, and would be governing over a booming, recovering economy.

Democrats are almost certain to hold the Senate and are narrowly favored to hold the House imo.

The republicans are a party of losers, and without being able to blame somebody as polarizing as Obama (even if he was more qualified to hold the office than Biden), they can't win elections like 2010 and 2014. Republicans need higher turnout now anyway, with their coalition moving away from the suburbs and the upper middle class. Low turnout elections aren't their forte - they need to focus on improving access to in-person early voting, to mitigate the democrats' advantage in vbm.

Republicans should focus on limiting damage for 2022 and hope to turn the tide in 2024.

In a functional country that doesn't constantly reflect patterns, this would be true. But historical precedent really might be all the GOP needs to pull off some sort of victory in 2022. Even 2020 counts as historical precedent repeating itself. Every incumbent President who the economy collapsed under, oversaw a major domestic crisis, or both has lost. Trump defied many expectations throughout his tenure, but he couldn't overcome that or the 2018 results. As such, I fail to see how Biden can overcome them either.

2002 was a break from the trend. Although 2002 saw Bush with approvals in the 60s and a decent economy. However, if Biden remains popular and the economy remains good, Dems have a chance of holding both chambers.

Relying too heavily on past election results won't always make for a prediction come true.

Also, imo, a lot of the seats making up Dems current slim majority are trending in their favor, so I struggle to see more than like 10 seats that will flip in 2022. Of course thats enough to flip the chamber, but it's not enough to guarantee a flip in chamber control.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

2002 was after 911, but there has been zero scrutiny on these red state politicians running for Gov, Senate and House, since they can do whatever they want by passing voting suppression, due to Supermajority R Legislatures

We also know that in midterms, states don't always go the way the should as in Prez terms, Sununu won by seven and Brown and Sinema won in 2018

We also know that Rs are nine down on Generic Ballot and 2018 they lost by 8 pts.

Whitmer and Hassan are in trouble, six pts down to Rs, but D's have more targets in the H, Gov and Senate

D's are in trouble in OR, too, Jessica Gomez can actually win and replace Brown, since Knute almost won in 2018

Assuming Josh Mandel is gonna win by a landslide just because Trump won 9 pts is silly same thing in IA or in FL DeSamtis is in Big Trouble, Crist is like Cuomo, he is a Lawyer and can debate DeSantis tough, he lost in 2014, because Scott had a connection with Afro Americans, DeSantis only connects with Latinos, that's why he almost lost to Gillium by .5

[woodley park]

Thus far it seems like the GOP is having a hard time coalescing around anything, the way that they did in 2009 under the auspices of the Tea Party. We will see if inflation turns out to be a medium to long term problem, as that could help the GOP come back in the midterms. But otherwise they may be too divided to make the major gains they did in 2010.