Biden approval ratings thread, 1.0

[pbrower2a]

If Covid isn't gone by next Summer, the South is gonna vote Red and that can hurt Ds in TX, FL, we know that's where the House is gonna be decided in Red TX and FL, they are gaining 6 seats

That's why I criticized your TX map

Aren't we all trying to predict the future, in this case the 2024 election? Since 1952, all Presidents since Eisenhower newly elected to the Presidency have started with impressive measures of approval... except Donald Trump. All of them except Donald Trump have had as their initial focus the achievement of popular parts of their agendas or an effort to resolve a pressing concern that their predecessors could not meet, or at least to ride the tide of seeming inevitability. That could be putting an end to American involvement in an unpopular war (Eisenhower with Korea), tax cuts and regulatory relaxation for Ronald Reagan, or meeting the most dangerous economic meltdown since the Great Depression for Obama. Gallup is the only pollster old enough to have approval ratings for Presidents going back to Harry Truman, and his is the only one with organizational continuity.

Donald Trump sticks out as far below the others, and people could have wisely said that he needed to gain support if he were to get re-elected. Instead Donald Trump did what nearly all populists do, whether Right or Left -- sticking the nasty stuff to the people who did not vote for them. He did a poor job winning over people who did not vote for him in 2016. Joe Biden is doing far better than Donald Trump at this stage. So far that matters greatly. Sure, the electorate is extremely polarized, with perhaps 20% on both sides wanting to put the other side of the political spectrum under great unpleasantness such as "re-education camps". Who said that American political life is benign?

It is clear that if Joe Biden can maintain approval ratings like those that he now has, then he will win re-election handily if he seeks it. That may be a bigger question than how well he is performing in approval ratings in any single state, including Texas. Texas is obviously to the Right of the US as a whole, but it is becoming less so. It is now close enough that in a very good year a very good nominee from the Democratic Party can win the state in a statewide election.

Texas is becoming more like the USA as a whole. Texas used to be much poorer, less well-educated, more violent, and more rural than the USA on the whole. A few years ago the Democratic Party in Texas was either leftovers from the time of Lyndon Johnson and Lloyd Bentsen... and ethnic minorities. That is over. The Mexican-American share of the electorate is growing rapidly, and Texas has attracted well-educated professionals from other states. If one can't afford California rentals, then one can move to Texas and turn up the air conditioner (actually, turn the thermostat down low enough and you can feel as if you are in San Francisco instead of Phoenix -- Dallas is almost that hot -- in the summer), and still have money left over for cable TV, dining out, and a newer car. If one lives in Ohio and sees no future in Cleveland, Toledo, Dayton, or Cincinnati and consider Columbus as a likely bust once its fad is gone, then you can head south on Interstate 71 to Louisville and keep heading southwestward. (Ohio may be going to the political Right as its urban political base shrinks and the Hard-Right rural areas become more important in statewide politics).

OK, back to Texas and the pale pink coloration. Somebody set a terracing for the gap between approval and disapproval, and the color shades change at intervals of 5%. That might not be how I would do it, but I am not going to set up a rival map. If I did I would go with a 20% shade for anything less than 5% (the typical margin of error in polling in most states is 4%; it is probably 6% in Alaska and Texas and 2% in Vermont or Wyoming), a 40% shade for 5-7%, a 50% shade for 8-10%, a 60% shade for 11-15%, and 80% for anything above that. Making distinctions above 15% is pointless with the norm of winner-take-all states because one gets the same three electoral votes in Wyoming whether one wins it 59-40 or 89-10.

A 1% gap is a statistical tie, and if I saw something like that and a blue shade in... let us say Iowa... then I would say much the same.

Most significantly, we have no good cause to believe that President Biden's early solid approval numbers and low disapproval numbers will stick. Except for Trump, all newly-elected Presidents at a similar stage of a first term to which they were elected have started with impressive approval numbers. Yes, even Jimmy Carter... and we know how that went. President Biden is one international disaster of diplomacy, what passes for hyperinflation by American standards, or one economic meltdown at least as bad as 2007-2009 away from losing in a landslide to someone who promises a recovery of the economy or a revival of national pride. I remember reading about how popular Herbert Hoover was before the 1929 Stock Market Crash...

This said, if Joe Biden has numbers like these in 2024, then he wins re-election if he wants it.  The Republicans will surely nominate some weak opponent because nobody would risk everything on the Presidency, some ideological extremist, or someone whose nomination is basically an honor for long and meritorious service to the Republican Party. Joe Biden could imaginably face a Republican opponent who is the Republican equivalent of Mike Dukakis, George McGovern, or Walter Mondale. On the other hand, if we should endure hyper-inflation, then some right-winger could promise 60-hour workweeks with 30%-lower hourly pay without an overtime premium  and promise such as an improvement. Work 60 hors and get paid for 42? Well, there wouldn't be so much time for shopping and for enjoying the fruits of the increased productivity, would there?

Incumbent Presidents get re-elected if they don't face too many problems that they can't solve. Hoover and Carter had far bigger problems than Trump, but Trump still had too many.

 

[Sir Mohamed]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1381426221003718658

[Hope For A New Era]

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1381426221003718658

Pretty sure they're just trying to cancel out Rasmussen in the poll averages at this point. Every single poll they have is 61/39.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The question isn't are Ds gonna win next Election, they can hold the Senate and win Govs with a Biden mediocre rating by reaffirming the blue wall, the question is TX and FL are gaining 6 new seats and 5 D's are vulnerable in TX and whether D's can get a Supermajority Senate to get Crt packing and Filibuster reform and DC Statehood.  It's possible that it could be a Split R H and a D Senate with D's winning NH, WI, and PA


DEMS CAN WIN WITHOUT SOUTH

We won't know that question until Summer of 2022, but Covid needs to be better than it is now.

Biden has the 278 EC votes to beat Ron DeSantis due to Senate map, but I highly doubt with Covid cases rising, Biden is at 60 percent

[roxas11]

Biden has a higher disapproval than Obama, Bush, and Clinton so far. Not a great sign for re-election as of now. But the country is more polarized now more than ever.

Trump disapproval was way worse than Biden's and he still barley lost in 2020.....

On 538 Biden current disapproval is 39.5......Trump's was 52.7 at this same point in time

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden is not at 60 percent, the other polls show him at 52 percent among RV and 49 percent LV

That's how we got messed up last time Biden +14 in RV in QU polls and D's were doing alot better like Bullock plus 4 in RV and trailing in LV

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Instead of giving us Biden Approvals give us a Generic ballot test for Midterms it was D plus 4, down from plus 8 in March when Biden passed 1400 checks for everyone, the money is running out again

Boehner is ou again and taking role of RS so that Mccarthy becomes Speaker

But, if boarder security and Covid gets better in 500 days we can see a blue wave in pbower2A map

It's not news TX, FL and IA are gonna stay R

[pbrower2a]

It's the disapproval rating that really counts for establishing the maximum number of voters who can vote for an incumbent pol. Although the disapproval rating can rise as an incumbent starts to do controversial deeds, it is nearly impossible to cut into a disapproval rating. 

Biden has a higher disapproval than Obama, Bush, and Clinton so far. Not a great sign for re-election as of now. But the country is more polarized now more than ever.

Trump disapproval was way worse than Biden's and he still barely lost in 2020.....

On 538 Biden current disapproval is 39.5......Trump's was 52.7 at this same point in time

For all the events of his sordid term in office, Trump ratings for approval and disapproval were surprisingly stable over just under four years. Take 52.7%, subtract that, and you find that Trump could have reasonably expected to get 47.3% of the popular vote in 2020. Trump ended up getting 46.8%, which is uncannily close to the 47.3% of the popular vote that 100-DIS would have predicted.

It would have been tricky for Trump to win; he would have had to rely upon a significant number of  Third Party voters gutting the vote for the Democratic nominee while the Democratic nominee rolls up huge numbers in a few strong D states while falling short in most swing states.

The low disapproval rating for President Biden suggests that he has a ceiling of 60.5%, which is meaningless because in recent times no Presidential nominee ever does that well. Nixon got numbers like that in 1972 and LBJ did that in 1964, and such is now unimaginable.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

If they would poll Senate races in NC, OH and FL and GA that will confirm that Biden is at 60% it would be believable, but since D's aren't releasing internals other than WI Sen, shows that's something is admist

So far GA, NH, WI Senate races have been polled

PA Senate only polled Fetterman approvals no Senate matchup numbers
If Biden was at 60 wouldn't we see NC, OH and FL Sen correlation with Biden 60%

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's clear that the ongoing Covid is realigning the EC map again, between the North v South, I don't have much faith in TX when it comes to House Redistricting

The Southern Dems were wiped out in 2010 wave as well

H goes R with new Redistricting maps in TX and FL and Senate goes D with D's netting WI, PA and winning NH

It's a broken campaign promise he would cure Covid, just like he promised as Veep to cure Cancer, and my mom died of Cancer in 2015/ the same yr his son died

[CookieDamage]

Biden has a higher disapproval than Obama, Bush, and Clinton so far. Not a great sign for re-election as of now. But the country is more polarized now more than ever.

Cope

[Lief 🗽]

Biden has a far higher approval than Trump so far, who only narrowly lost in 2020. Great sign for re-election as of now, because the country is more polarized now than ever.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden has a far higher approval than Trump so far, who only narrowly lost in 2020. Great sign for re-election as of now, because the country is more polarized now than ever.

We already know he has the 291 votes to solidify Reelection but in a Pandemic he can lose the H base on TX and FL Redistricting if Covid and Border Security isn't taking care of and the battleground in the H, not the Senate is in the South

I keep saying this, that North has no qualms about Biden, but the South is likely to realign and go back Red

The only state that Biden won was GA and the Deep S and it has voter suppression, Kemp is gonna get Reelected

D's can lose the H in 2022 and gain it back in a R +10 and, gain it back in 2024/2026 too the Senate map is just as bad for Rs as the H map is for D's for the decade

[pbrower2a]

Most polls seem to arrive on Wednesday. It is a huge assumption to hold that Joe Biden will hold the large edge in approval numbers that he now holds for three and a half years.  The connection to approval and voting for an  incumbent in a re-election effort is extremely strong. If the most recent polling map holds (ignore Texas, which is a virtual tie, and Biden can win without it), then I see a decisive Biden re-election. In the last four elections involving an incumbent President seeking a second term, no more than five states have swung one way or the other. Although 1992 and 1980 are huge losses for the Incumbent's Party, the years 1984 and 1956 fit that pattern, too.

The focus is on the incumbent, and the incumbent usually shows why he got elected the first time. The campaign promises that one made typically get achieved, more or less, and the Incumbent ordinarily runs on his record or runs against Congress for frustrating those promises. If he must run from the record he loses.

OK... five states changing hands is not so gigantic if the states are nearly even in popular votes and go opposite ways even if some are electorally large:

1992  (CO, GA, MT D to R, AZ, FL  R to D)

as if all five are electorally large and all go one way

(AZ, GA, MI, NE-02, PA, WI all R to D... 74 electoral votes altogether) then the incumbent had better have won by a large, tangible margin.

So suppose that three of the closest states of 2020 change hands -- Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina. Biden wins.   

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden at 60 percent, well MO polls show that every D gets crushed in Senate races, told you the S will shift R since Covid cases went up

[roxas11]

Most polls seem to arrive on Wednesday. It is a huge assumption to hold that Joe Biden will hold the large edge in approval numbers that he now holds for three and a half years.  The connection to approval and voting for an  incumbent in a re-election effort is extremely strong. If the most recent polling map holds (ignore Texas, which is a virtual tie, and Biden can win without it), then I see a decisive Biden re-election. In the last four elections involving an incumbent President seeking a second term, no more than five states have swung one way or the other. Although 1992 and 1980 are huge losses for the Incumbent's Party, the years 1984 and 1956 fit that pattern, too.

The focus is on the incumbent, and the incumbent usually shows why he got elected the first time. The campaign promises that one made typically get achieved, more or less, and the Incumbent ordinarily runs on his record or runs against Congress for frustrating those promises. If he must run from the record he loses.

OK... five states changing hands is not so gigantic if the states are nearly even in popular votes and go opposite ways even if some are electorally large:

1992  (CO, GA, MT D to R, AZ, FL  R to D)

as if all five are electorally large and all go one way

(AZ, GA, MI, NE-02, PA, WI all R to D... 74 electoral votes altogether) then the incumbent had better have won by a large, tangible margin.

So suppose that three of the closest states of 2020 change hands -- Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina. Biden wins.   

 
Biden does not need to hold his current support in order to win



The reality is Unless Biden can pull off becoming even more unpopular than trump was in 2020 He will still most likely end up winning reelection if he runs. If trump proved anything in 2020, it is that it is very hard to for a President to lose if they seek a second term even if that President is unpopular

Despite everything that happened over the past few years, Trump still almost won. That means all Biden really has to do is simply be slightly more popular than Trump was in 2020 and if can do that he will be on track to be reelected if chooses to run

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, April 10-13, 1500 adults including 1263 RV

Adults:

Approve 49 (nc)
Disapprove 42 (+1)

Strongly approve 27 (-3)
Strongly disapprove 31  (nc)

RV:

Approve 51 (-1)
Disapprove 43 (+1)

Strongly approve 31 (-3)
Strongly disapprove 34 (nc)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Monmouth, April 8-12, 800 adults including 743 RV (1-month change)

Adults:

Approve 54 (+3)
Disapprove 41 (-1)

RV:

Approve 53 (+3)
Disapprove 43 (nc)

[pbrower2a]

Most polls seem to arrive on Wednesday. It is a huge assumption to hold that Joe Biden will hold the large edge in approval numbers that he now holds for three and a half years.  The connection to approval and voting for an  incumbent in a re-election effort is extremely strong. If the most recent polling map holds (ignore Texas, which is a virtual tie, and Biden can win without it), then I see a decisive Biden re-election. In the last four elections involving an incumbent President seeking a second term, no more than five states have swung one way or the other. Although 1992 and 1980 are huge losses for the Incumbent's Party, the years 1984 and 1956 fit that pattern, too.

The focus is on the incumbent, and the incumbent usually shows why he got elected the first time. The campaign promises that one made typically get achieved, more or less, and the Incumbent ordinarily runs on his record or runs against Congress for frustrating those promises. If he must run from the record he loses.

OK... five states changing hands is not so gigantic if the states are nearly even in popular votes and go opposite ways even if some are electorally large:

1992  (CO, GA, MT D to R, AZ, FL  R to D)

as if all five are electorally large and all go one way

(AZ, GA, MI, NE-02, PA, WI all R to D... 74 electoral votes altogether) then the incumbent had better have won by a large, tangible margin.

So suppose that three of the closest states of 2020 change hands -- Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina. Biden wins.   

 
Biden does not need to hold his current support in order to win



The reality is Unless Biden can pull off becoming even more unpopular than trump was in 2020 He will still most likely end up winning reelection if he runs. If trump proved anything in 2020, it is that it is very hard to for a President to lose if they seek a second term even if that President is unpopular

Despite everything that happened over the past few years, Trump still almost won. That means all Biden really has to do is simply be slightly more popular than Trump was in 2020 and if can do that he will be on track to be reelected if chooses to run

True. He needs only 43.5% support early in the campaign to have a 50% chance of winning any state in question. The contest for the Presidency is 48 statewide campaigns and the equivalent of winning one city-wide election (District of Columbia) and five congressional districts. The probability curve for winning re-election looks like a titration curve for an acid-base neutralization. The chance of losing a re-election bid is very high if one has about 42% support early in the electoral season and the chance of winning is very high if one has 45% support early in the electoral season. Running a strong, spirited, and competent campaign is against an average opponent is good for about picking up 6.5% of the vote in a binary election, says Nate Silver.

At the beginning of the electoral season, match-ups and approval ratings are generally close to each other. Campaigning is for making promises and defending a record; governing a state or legislating as a US Senator gets one in the position of having to take unpopular sides on issues, like raising taxes. Under average conditions, that is good for about a 6.5% loss of support from the honeymoon.   

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

Quinnipiac: 48% Approve, 42% Disapprove


Snap back to reality...

[sting in the rafters]

At risk of sounding like a broken record both YouGov and Monmouth show Joey hovering at the 45% with independents and 60% with moderates needed to reach 50%+1, though Quinnipac shows him at only 40% with independents. That 5% may not sound like a lot, however is there not a high chance of that being the difference between Ds getting 48-49% of the vote in '22/24 vs 50-51%?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Quinnipiac: 48% Approve, 42% Disapprove


Snap back to reality...

Yeah because Covid cases has gone up, as soon as Covid is taken care of, the Ds will be up again

It's not gonna be a landslide no ways but a D3.1 Election is probably the best case scenario D's will have

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

As President Joe Biden approaches his 100th day in office, he receives a positive 48 - 42 percent job approval rating, with 10 percent not offering an opinion in a Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pea-ack) University national poll of adults released today. This compares to a February 17th poll when 50 percent approved, 38 percent disapproved, and 13 percent didn't offer an opinion.

In today's poll, Democrats approve 94 - 4 percent, Republicans disapprove 87 - 6 percent, and 45 percent of independents disapprove, while 40 percent approve.

BIDEN ON ISSUES & TRAITS

On President Biden's handling of six issues, the president receives positive scores on three, with the coronavirus response ranking at the top. He receives negative scores on his handling of the situation at the Mexican border and gun policy, and a mixed score on taxes. On Biden's handling of ...

• the response to the coronavirus: 64 percent of Americans approve, 29 percent disapprove, with 7 percent not offering an opinion;
• the economy: 50 percent of Americans approve, 42 percent disapprove, with 8 percent not offering an opinion;
• climate change: 48 percent of Americans approve, 35 percent disapprove, with 17 percent not offering an opinion;
• taxes: 45 percent of Americans approve, 42 percent disapprove, with 13 percent not offering an opinion;
• gun policy: 39 percent of Americans approve, 49 percent disapprove, with 11 percent not offering an opinion;
• the situation at the Mexican border: 29 percent of Americans approve, 55 percent disapprove, with 15 percent not offering an opinion.

A slight majority of Americans (52 - 44 percent) say that Biden has good leadership skills, and a similar number say 51 - 42 percent that Biden is honest. Nearly six in ten, 58 - 37 percent, say that he cares about average Americans.

A slim majority of Americans say 51 - 41 percent that Biden is doing more to unite the country than divide it.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Quinnipiac, April 8-12, 1237 adults (change from mid-Feb.)

Approve 48 (-2)
Disapprove 42 (+4)

Strongly approve 34 (-2)
Strongly disapprove 36 (+3)

[Matty]

Qpac should not be taken seriously anymore, one way or another

They have shown time and time again they have horrid sampling problems that produce inaccurate results

In fact, I don’t know why they haven’t gotten the zogby treatment yet