Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

[Former President tack50]

Question for Griffin: Do you have a map of the turnout decrease by county between 2020-Pres and 2021-Senate?

Given the election was won essencially by hardline Trumpists not turning out, it would be interesting to see.

[Хahar 🤔]

Question for Griffin: Do you have a map of the turnout decrease by county between 2020-Pres and 2021-Senate?

Given the election was won essencially by hardline Trumpists not turning out, it would be interesting to see.

He posted it earlier:

Looking at the map, the highest turnout counties were mostly GOP counties in northern GA

Curious how you came to this conclusion?

Just as a share of the presidential (which is obviously a baseline metric):



Of the 20 counties with the highest turnout as a share of November, only 1 is a North Georgia GOP county and the vast majority are Democratic or swing counties.

[QAnonKelly]

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1349052886270029825

What's he doing on the Capitol anyway? He hasn't been a Senator since Jan 3.

Probably hasn’t had time to hire a financial advisor.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://twitter.com/mkraju/status/1349052886270029825

What's he doing on the Capitol anyway? He hasn't been a Senator since Jan 3.

Cleaning out his office.

[Adam Griffin]

Update: 96 counties have certified results; 63 have not.

[wbrocks67]

I was gonna say, are we assuming basically the count is done at this point?

[wbrocks67]

A smidge more votes, Ossoff gains 0.02%

Jon Ossoff 2,269,213 (50.62%)
David Perdue 2,213,855 (49.38%)
= Ossoff +55,358 (1.24%)

Raphael Warnock 2,288,391 (51.04%)
Kelly Loeffler 2,194,729 (48.96%)
= Warnock +93,662 (2.08%)

[GP270watch]

I just realized Ossoff is 33. He could honestly serve in the senate for 60 years if Georgia’s trends stay that way

Yeah, he has the potential to be a long-serving member. 2026 might be competitive-ish, but by then Georgia would probably be a fairly Democratic state.

I don't buy the idea of Ossoff being a long serving Senator, he will obviously be primaried in the future by another Democrat and likely a black woman. Given that black women are the real energy behind southern Democratic politics organizing, they deserve to be represented in seats of power as well.

Ethnic identity politics is fairly toxic but a primary challenger would come 15 to 20 years down the line not in 2026. You also don't know if a republican will beat him in 2026 as well cause theres a good chance of that as well

 It's a reality though. Looks at the liberal/progressive Democrats in the House who have been primaried by younger candidates of color who are even more progressive. This is a fact of Democracy, people will compete for positions of power and have every right to. Winning statewide in the South is different than a house seat but Warnock's victory shows things are changing.

[Sol]

Atlas people often overrate the importance of identity in primary challenges and underrate the importance of community ties and relationships. There's a reason why somebody like Steve Cohen or Gene Green won every time, while Joe Crowley or Donna Shalala lost due to their weak ties with the communities in their district.

Ossoff doesn't seem like he has those relationships yet, though it's hard to tell--but a lot of that is a function of him not having held office before. Presumably now that he's a successful statewide politician he'll continue to build ties in the Black community.

[Хahar 🤔]

Atlas people often overrate the importance of identity in primary challenges and underrate the importance of community ties and relationships. There's a reason why somebody like Steve Cohen or Gene Green won every time, while Joe Crowley or Donna Shalala lost due to their weak ties with the communities in their district.

Ossoff doesn't seem like he has those relationships yet, though it's hard to tell--but a lot of that is a function of him not having held office before. Presumably now that he's a successful statewide politician he'll continue to build ties in the Black community.

It's worth pointing out that in the primary, Teresa Tomlinson received endorsements from Max Cleland, Roy Barnes, and Jason Carter. She had the support of the entire class of white Democrats who have been running for statewide office for the last thirty years. By contrast, Jon Ossoff had the endorsement of basically every prominent black Democrat in the state. As far as I can tell, his prominence in politics is entirely the product of his personal relationships with John Lewis and Hank Johnson, both of whom he worked for.

That is to say, the point is well-made in general, and in this specific case it's abundantly clear to me that Ossoff does have those relationships. He wouldn't have been elected without them.

[AndyHogan14]

Any new counties certify today? Is there a site I should keep an eye on to see county certifications (other than going to each individual website)?

[Adam Griffin]

Any new counties certify today? Is there a site I should keep an eye on to see county certifications (other than going to each individual website)?

https://results.enr.clarityelections.com/GA/107556/web.264614/#/reporting


112 of 159 have now certified. Counties have until Friday to finish up: I had hope that perhaps all counties would wrap up a day or two earlier and a final certification would be given early, but looks like that won't happen.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/GabrielSterling/status/1349820717148286978

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

lol I played a prank on my dad. I told the entire family group chat that he is inconsolably depressed about Perdue losing and won't stop crying, so now his phone has been lighting up with sympathies for the past several days.

[Adam Griffin]

I didn't do the math for the runoff results specifically (Redraw the States has the 2020 data presidential data loaded in and only takes a minute to move each county around), but I broke down the runoff into two buckets: counties that had a higher turnout as a share of November than the state as a whole, and counties that had a lower turnout (click here to see the map). Statewide, the raw runoff turnout was 90.41% of November's raw turnout.

I knew there'd be a difference, but holy s[inks]t: there was a 50-point difference in November's partisan preference between the two groups!

The combined counties that had lower turnout than the state as a whole in the runoff (again, relative to November's turnout) voted for Trump by 21 points. In the above-average counties, Biden won by 29 points.

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://twitter.com/GabrielSterling/status/1349820717148286978

If the results are certified on Tuesday, do Warnock and Ossoff get sworn in the same day, or is there additional delay from there?

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/GabrielSterling/status/1349820717148286978

If the results are certified on Tuesday, do Warnock and Ossoff get sworn in the same day, or is there additional delay from there?

The Georgia Secretary of State must send an election certificate to the Senate.  As soon as this is received by the secretary of the Senate, they can be sworn in.

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://twitter.com/GabrielSterling/status/1349820717148286978

If the results are certified on Tuesday, do Warnock and Ossoff get sworn in the same day, or is there additional delay from there?

The Georgia Secretary of State must send an election certificate to the Senate.  As soon as this is received by the secretary of the Senate, they can be sworn in.

Is it likely to arrive within the day, or at least overnight?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

found this on Youtube. It made me laugh.

[ProgressiveModerate]

found this on Youtube. It made me laugh.

Sad that she couldn't defeat a "radical liberal" and "save America from socialism" If America becomes run by socialists, it'll be her and David Perdue's fault; the firewall for stopping socialism failed

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/GabrielSterling/status/1349820717148286978

If the results are certified on Tuesday, do Warnock and Ossoff get sworn in the same day, or is there additional delay from there?

The Georgia Secretary of State must send an election certificate to the Senate.  As soon as this is received by the secretary of the Senate, they can be sworn in.

Is it likely to arrive within the day, or at least overnight?

Likely overnight, the AJC wrote today that they'll likely be sworn-in when the Senate reconvenes on Wednesday (so, just after the inauguration & immediately prior to the beginning of the trial).

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://twitter.com/GabrielSterling/status/1349820717148286978

If the results are certified on Tuesday, do Warnock and Ossoff get sworn in the same day, or is there additional delay from there?

The Georgia Secretary of State must send an election certificate to the Senate.  As soon as this is received by the secretary of the Senate, they can be sworn in.

Is it likely to arrive within the day, or at least overnight?

Likely overnight, the AJC wrote today that they'll likely be sworn-in when the Senate reconvenes on Wednesday (so, just after the inauguration & immediately prior to the beginning of the trial).

Ah, I see. Can there be a vote on the very same day to replace McConnell with Schumer, or will that have to wait too?

[brucejoel99]

https://twitter.com/GabrielSterling/status/1349820717148286978

If the results are certified on Tuesday, do Warnock and Ossoff get sworn in the same day, or is there additional delay from there?

The Georgia Secretary of State must send an election certificate to the Senate.  As soon as this is received by the secretary of the Senate, they can be sworn in.

Is it likely to arrive within the day, or at least overnight?

Likely overnight, the AJC wrote today that they'll likely be sworn-in when the Senate reconvenes on Wednesday (so, just after the inauguration & immediately prior to the beginning of the trial).

Ah, I see. Can there be a vote on the very same day to replace McConnell with Schumer, or will that have to wait too?

I imagine it could occur at the same time, but I don't know if it will.

[AndyHogan14]

https://twitter.com/GabrielSterling/status/1349820717148286978

If the results are certified on Tuesday, do Warnock and Ossoff get sworn in the same day, or is there additional delay from there?

The Georgia Secretary of State must send an election certificate to the Senate.  As soon as this is received by the secretary of the Senate, they can be sworn in.

Is it likely to arrive within the day, or at least overnight?

Likely overnight, the AJC wrote today that they'll likely be sworn-in when the Senate reconvenes on Wednesday (so, just after the inauguration & immediately prior to the beginning of the trial).

Ah, I see. Can there be a vote on the very same day to replace McConnell with Schumer, or will that have to wait too?

That will happen as soon as Ossoff and Warnock are sworn in and Harris is Vice President. I do think, however, that there will need to be some sort of vote to make Pat Leahy the President Pro Tempore. Does anyone know what the process is for that? I always watch the House on the opening day of Congress and have never bothered to watch the Senate on that day.

[Antonio the Sixth]

https://twitter.com/GabrielSterling/status/1349820717148286978

If the results are certified on Tuesday, do Warnock and Ossoff get sworn in the same day, or is there additional delay from there?

The Georgia Secretary of State must send an election certificate to the Senate.  As soon as this is received by the secretary of the Senate, they can be sworn in.

Is it likely to arrive within the day, or at least overnight?

Likely overnight, the AJC wrote today that they'll likely be sworn-in when the Senate reconvenes on Wednesday (so, just after the inauguration & immediately prior to the beginning of the trial).

Ah, I see. Can there be a vote on the very same day to replace McConnell with Schumer, or will that have to wait too?

That will happen as soon as Ossoff and Warnock are sworn in and Harris is Vice President. I do think, however, that there will need to be some sort of vote to make Pat Leahy the President Pro Tempore. Does anyone know what the process is for that? I always watch the House on the opening day of Congress and have never bothered to watch the Senate on that day.

Wait, so does Schumer becoming majority leader happen automatically without the need of a vote or any kind of formal process? Just as long as it's ascertained that there are 50+1 Democrats in the Senate? Great news if so.