Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

[Progressive Pessimist]

I haven't posted in this thread since election night, but needless to say I was euphoric when it became undeniable that both Ossoff and Warnock would win. Georgia is now a literal freedom state that helped save the country in its elections from Trump, but also from McConnell now. When the nation needed them more than ever, the state delivered once again. I keep mentioning it but the infamous peach scene from 'Call Me By Your Name' is probably the most apt summation of how I felt that night. I've been wrong about all of the major Democratic upsets in them during the Trump era, and I am proud to have eaten crow every time. Furthermore, it appears that Democrats actually have a bright future in the state and have a real blueprint on how to win (though it is still only a tossup-far from being the next Virginia...for now).

 It looked like 2021 was starting on a real peachy note from this...but then my triumphant feelings were negated by yesterday's horror show. It's hard to feel quite as jubilant anymore.

Still though, the significance of the runoff victories is not lost on me. It's so satisfying to see a state with a sordid history like Georgia elect a black Senator as well as a Jewish one-this being the place where me and my family once, on a road trip through the state, witnessed a convenience store in the Georgian sticks that said "We Don't Serve Jews" (I s*** you not!).

But nonetheless, all hail the needle! All hail Georgian voters! All hail the activists like RFKFan! And all hail Stacey Abrams! She needs to be cloned and sent to Florida, North Carolina, and Texas.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

I'm really disappointed that the fact that we flipped the Senate was reduced to a foonote because of the domestic terrorist attack.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I'm really disappointed that the fact that we flipped the Senate was reduced to a foonote because of the domestic terrorist attack.

Fascists get one day. We get two years.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I'm really disappointed that the fact that we flipped the Senate was reduced to a foonote because of the domestic terrorist attack.

Fascists get one day. We get two years.

If extremists get one day and we get seven hundred-thirty, I would say that's a great deal.

[DINGO Joe]

It's kind of crazy to realize that the 2014 Senate race had a turnout of just over 2.5 million and this year will be just under 4.5 million.

[DINGO Joe]

An assistant football coach at UT- Chattanooga has been fired for his political analysis of the GA Senate races

https://mobile.twitter.com/NoogaHoller/status/1347003513381945346?ref_src=twsrc%...

Good riddance

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

An assistant football coach at UT- Chattanooga has been fired for his political analysis of the GA Senate races

https://mobile.twitter.com/NoogaHoller/status/1347003513381945346?ref_src=twsrc%...

Good riddance

Well the offensive line part of his job description is true haha

[Rookie Yinzer]

It was Whites+20 (51-31) among 1.78 million ballot requests for the GE.

Now, it’s Whites+26 (56-30) with 1 million requests so far.

Doesn’t look all too promising, but who knows ...

Biden won mail in ballots 65-34.... there are definitely going to be more Dems voting in person in this race because of the shorter turnaround.

Y'all can't resist finding doom and gloom in every stat.

I'm applying here the same logic as in the early vote in Florida: the numbers we have already aren't great for Dems and evidence suggests Election Day voters tend to lean more to the right. And it was the correct call. So if Warnock wins the race, I will change my avatar and name to "Glory to Blue Georgia" for a month.

Are you still going to do this?

[Adam Griffin]

I don't know if it's been mentioned yet, but after the deadline for counties to certify (1/15), the SoS in theory can order a recanvass that could extend the state certification for another 7 days if the margin is within 1 percentage point. It's obvious Raffensperger won't be doing this, but...even Ossoff is about to cross this threshold and completely eliminate the possibility:

Ossoff 50.49%
Perdue 49.51%

I haven't been following whether or not there are any "normal" outstanding votes left to be tallied, but even if all regular mail and in-person vote is already counted, the provisionals + overseas ballots that'll be tallied tomorrow should let Ossoff cross the one-point threshold (though given the higher skewed ED GOP support, provisional + overseas might not be quite as D as it usually is).

[Adam Griffin]

It's kind of crazy to realize that the 2014 Senate race had a turnout of just over 2.5 million and this year will be just under 4.5 million.

You can thank the GAGOP passing automatic voter registration for that. There are 1.5 million additional active registered voters compared to the 2014 election.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

looks like there are 4 racists in glasscock county Georgia. 1230-134 perdue wins, 1234-130 loeffler

[Alcibiades]

looks like there are 4 racists in glasscock county Georgia. 1230-134 perdue wins, 1234-130 loeffler

Ha, those numbers are nice and easy to compare. Not surprising considering it’s a 90% Republican county (the GOP percentage is almost identical to the white percentage) surrounded by the Black Belt.

[wbrocks67]

All hail the needle!

Jon Ossoff 2,250,414 (50.49%)
David Perdue 2,207,168 (49.51%)
= Ossoff +43,246 (0.98%)

Raphael Warnock 2,269,449 (50.91%)
Kelly Loeffler 2,188,189 (49.09%)
= Warnock +81,260 (1.82%)

[wbrocks67]

So when will the crook concede to Ossoff...

About that:

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1347344035564969986

I now have more respect for Loeffler than Perdue, which is something else I wouldn't have predicted as an outcome.

Jesus, Perdue really proved himself to be just as bad as Loeffler is. This campaign (thankfully) brought out his true colors

[VAR]

I guess I'm vindicated for thinking Loeffler was slightly better than Perdue.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

All hail the needle!

Jon Ossoff 2,250,414 (50.49%)
David Perdue 2,207,168 (49.51%)
= Ossoff +43,246 (0.98%)

Raphael Warnock 2,269,449 (50.91%)
Kelly Loeffler 2,188,189 (49.09%)
= Warnock +81,260 (1.82%)

So now Ossoff is ahead even if you remove Cobb county

[wbrocks67]

But forreal though, props to the NYT team/Nate Cohn. They nailed this right from the start, really. They were the only ones (among the pundit class) who knew where this was headed, even from the first votes. Kornacki too.

It's like CNN wasn't even looking at the NYT needle page at all...

[Person Man]

Will Ossoff beat 1%?

[Motorcity]

I haven’t been paying attention to this thread since Election Day so I might have missed it but: Do we know if majority Hispanic precincts swung back to “regular” Dem levels after swinging hard R in November?

There was a very nice snapback.

https://twitter.com/SawyerHackett/status/1346653890222170113?s=20

I feel like having the power to decide who controls the federal government swung a lot of minorities

[GeorgiaModerate]

Will Ossoff beat 1%?

Quite likely at this point.

[wbrocks67]

Will Ossoff beat 1%?

It appears that way... likely a few more trickle of mail in ballots, plus possibly ~10K provisionals and ~14K military/overseas (though unlikely it's anywhere near that much).

NYT's +2.0 Warnock and +1.1 Ossoff look nearly spot on

[wbrocks67]

Isn't it funny how things work out? Ossoff losing that GA-06 special was the best thing that could've happened to him, while winning that special did absolutely nothing for Handel, and her career ended up imploding (twice) after it

[Roll Roons]

Hopefully Perdue concedes today.

[DINGO Joe]

All hail the needle!

Jon Ossoff 2,250,414 (50.49%)
David Perdue 2,207,168 (49.51%)
= Ossoff +43,246 (0.98%)

Raphael Warnock 2,269,449 (50.91%)
Kelly Loeffler 2,188,189 (49.09%)
= Warnock +81,260 (1.82%)

So now Ossoff is ahead even if you remove Cobb county

If you insist on removing GA counties, there are about 2 dozen North Georgia ones I could recommend.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Will Ossoff beat 1%?

It appears that way... likely a few more trickle of mail in ballots, plus possibly ~10K provisionals and ~14K military/overseas (though unlikely it's anywhere near that much).

NYT's +2.0 Warnock and +1.1 Ossoff look nearly spot on

It's also worth noting how dead on the 538 polling average was (looks like it will miss by about 0.5%).