Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

[WD]

apparently 7% of voters who are voting in the runoffs did not vote in the general, I wonder who they are? its weird

My take is that it's voters who now realize that their vote actually matters, but idk if this group is primarily red or blue.

Republican turnout in the general was nearly 90%, so I'd be astonished if they're managing to turn out voters who didn't vote in the general at this point.

Inshallah. I also know that voter registration groups (at least the ones I've worked with) have been mega focused on voters who turn 18 between the election and the runoff, so that's probably at least a significant part of that group, and I have to imagine that those voters are overwhelmingly Democratic.

They are Ossoff Loeffler voters.
They love Ossoff because he is a cute young millennial, but they also are voting Loeffler because they want one male and female for equality.

I don’t think that’s the reason they’re voting against Warnock....

It’s because, for some reason they don’t support Strong, Quality, Candidates and want unelectable, weak clowns like Ossoff and Loeffler. Bunch of weirdos, aren’t they?

[GALeftist]

apparently 7% of voters who are voting in the runoffs did not vote in the general, I wonder who they are? its weird

My take is that it's voters who now realize that their vote actually matters, but idk if this group is primarily red or blue.

Republican turnout in the general was nearly 90%, so I'd be astonished if they're managing to turn out voters who didn't vote in the general at this point.

Inshallah. I also know that voter registration groups (at least the ones I've worked with) have been mega focused on voters who turn 18 between the election and the runoff, so that's probably at least a significant part of that group, and I have to imagine that those voters are overwhelmingly Democratic.

They are Ossoff Loeffler voters.
They love Ossoff because he is a cute young millennial, but they also are voting Loeffler because they want one male and female for equality.

If this isn't a joke, Loeffler is probably more disliked than Perdue in this age group. Karen and all that.

[SCNCmod]

apparently 7% of voters who are voting in the runoffs did not vote in the general, I wonder who they are? its weird

White- 44% 
Black- 35%
Other: 21% 

My Guess:
16% Dem (from Others)
34% Dem (from Black)
20% Dem (from White)

So 70% Dem

...so of 7%... 4.9% Dem/ 2.1% Repub (a 2.8% gain for Dems)

Did they give a total number (rather than %)?

[Florida Man for Crime]

Radical liberal Raphael Warnock is doomed

[SCNCmod]

Bad news for the DEMs:

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/GA_RO.html

So far, there are 1.1 million mail ballot requests for the Special Elections, with 54% of requests coming from 65+ old voters.

There were 1.8 million mail ballot requests for the November GE, with 41% of requests coming from 65+ old voters.

65+ old voters went Trump+12.

Hush. This means nothing. Many people who requested are simply going to do IPEV. Stop.

Y'all really in here trying to call the races before a single person has voted in person. LOL.

Older voters are definitely likely to be the 1st to request ballots.  
720k over 65 requested ballots in the General
and 540K over 65 have requested in the runoff.

1.08 Million under 65 requested ballots in the General
and 560K under 65 have requested in the runoff
so Dems need to get a lot of those 500K  that are under 65, and have not yet requested their ballots.

***and to the extent there will be plenty of volunteers- those who voted by mail in the general, but not yet requested ballots for the runoff... should be the easiest to identify and get in touch with to remind them.

***Also- according to the Survey USA poll crosstabs, almost 3/4 VBM in the general went to Biden. But in the runoff, only about 2/3rd of the VMB is expected to go to Dem (so some Republicans, have decided they are going to vote by mail in the runoff- despite being talked out of doing so in the general).  And that poll basically had the race as a toss up... So, a higher % of Republicans voting by mail in the runoff is ok- as long as it doesn't grow too much % wise.

[Cassandra]

Question:

I moved last week and forgot to update my address by yesterday. That means I can't vote, right? Don't want psychos accusing me of "voter fraud" or whatever the f*co.

I mean... if you moved within state I would just go vote from where you moved from. All of the races on the ballot are statewide so it's not like you're voting for a race where you don't live.

Question:

I moved last week and forgot to update my address by yesterday. That means I can't vote, right? Don't want psychos accusing me of "voter fraud" or whatever the f*co.

Unfortunately, that is probably the case, but you can work on the ground to help ensure those who are registered vote. It's basically an indirect form of voting. Furthermore, if you have friends of family in the state who are unreliable voters but have clear ideological leanings, ensure they vote too, and think of that as your vote.

I'm, assuming you tried to register to vote while your address was in another state, so I think it depends upon whether you officially count as a Georgia resident or not when you registered. Generally, in order to be considered a resident, you have to have your official address in the state, though there are a few exceptions out there.

I did move within state, so I am a Georgia resident. I just don't want any hassle. I can totally see voting at an old address being some sort of something given how the laws are, especially since by the time the election rolls around I'll be outside that window where I was supposed to update my address with the county....

[wbrocks67]

Bad news for the DEMs:

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/GA_RO.html

So far, there are 1.1 million mail ballot requests for the Special Elections, with 54% of requests coming from 65+ old voters.

There were 1.8 million mail ballot requests for the November GE, with 41% of requests coming from 65+ old voters.

65+ old voters went Trump+12.

The problem with this, and all analysis, is we don't know who is turnout. For all we know, a bunch of the 65+ voters could be Biden 65+ voters right now. Or they could be Trump we just dont know.

[wbrocks67]

Given Georgia's new purple status, it sure would be an indictment if they let a senator who doesn't even think he needs to show up to debates win again.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Question:

I moved last week and forgot to update my address by yesterday. That means I can't vote, right? Don't want psychos accusing me of "voter fraud" or whatever the f*co.

I mean... if you moved within state I would just go vote from where you moved from. All of the races on the ballot are statewide so it's not like you're voting for a race where you don't live.

Question:

I moved last week and forgot to update my address by yesterday. That means I can't vote, right? Don't want psychos accusing me of "voter fraud" or whatever the f*co.

Unfortunately, that is probably the case, but you can work on the ground to help ensure those who are registered vote. It's basically an indirect form of voting. Furthermore, if you have friends of family in the state who are unreliable voters but have clear ideological leanings, ensure they vote too, and think of that as your vote.

I'm, assuming you tried to register to vote while your address was in another state, so I think it depends upon whether you officially count as a Georgia resident or not when you registered. Generally, in order to be considered a resident, you have to have your official address in the state, though there are a few exceptions out there.

I did move within state, so I am a Georgia resident. I just don't want any hassle. I can totally see voting at an old address being some sort of something given how the laws are, especially since by the time the election rolls around I'll be outside that window where I was supposed to update my address with the county....

Oh I see. Just to be safe, I would go vote from your old address personally, but you would probably be ok dropping of an absentee ballot even from the wrong place

[forsythvoter]

apparently 7% of voters who are voting in the runoffs did not vote in the general, I wonder who they are? its weird

White- 44% 
Black- 35%
Other: 21% 

My Guess:
16% Dem (from Others)
34% Dem (from Black)
20% Dem (from White)

So 70% Dem

...so of 7%... 4.9% Dem/ 2.1% Repub (a 2.8% gain for Dems)

Did they give a total number (rather than %)?

I think there are just over a 1M requested absentees, so if 7% of them are new voters, that's already 70k votes, which is significant. That would be a massive uptick in the "other vote" and a modest uptick in the black vote so wonder if these new voters are disproportionately Asian / Hispanic? Those two groups have the most room to grow in terms of voting participation relative to the voting-eligible population.

I would guess these voters lean Democratic, but given the trends this year in Hispanic and Asian-heavy places like NYC, CA and the RGV, who knows.

[SCNCmod]

Can anyone offer thoughts on how the same group of voters (for each respective poll) came up with these bifurcated results:

Dec 3 (Survey USA)
Ossoff +2       (Ossoff 50  Perdue 48)
Warnock +7    (Warnock 52  Loeffler 47)

Dec 4 (Trafalgar-R)
Ossoff +1       (Ossoff 48  Perdue 47)
Loeffler +5    (Warnock 45  Loeffler 50)

[KaiserDave]

Can anyone offer thoughts on how the same group of voters (for each respective poll) came up with these bifurcated results:

Dec 3 (Survey USA)
Ossoff +2       (Ossoff 50  Perdue 48)
Warnock +7    (Warnock 52  Loeffler 47)

Dec 4 (Trafalgar-R)
Ossoff +1       (Ossoff 48  Perdue 47)
Loeffler +5    (Warnock 45  Loeffler 50)

Trafalgar is trash

[SCNCmod]

Bad news for the DEMs:

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/GA_RO.html

So far, there are 1.1 million mail ballot requests for the Special Elections, with 54% of requests coming from 65+ old voters.

There were 1.8 million mail ballot requests for the November GE, with 41% of requests coming from 65+ old voters.

65+ old voters went Trump+12.

This actually Matches the SurveyUSA Dec 3rd Poll crosstabs:
Ossoff +2       (Ossoff 50  Perdue 48)
Warnock +7    (Warnock 52  Loeffler 47)

Crosstabs indicate that 41% of VBM in runoff will be 65+.
(in each remaining age group about 23% are going to VBM).

And of everyone planning to VBM in runoff:

In the General Election, these voters made of the following % of each candidates' total:
38% Warnock, 16% Loeffler, 11% Collins
37% Ossoff, 13% Perdue

In the Runoff, there are project to make of this % of each candidates' total vote:
37% Warnock, 14% Loeffler
35% Ossoff, 17% Perdue

So definitely not a big deal- seeing as the number so far matches this poll  (yet the poll still has Warnock and Ossoff on top... which would indicate that more older voters across the board, are planning to vote by mail this time rather than in person- maybe due to the anticipated covid spike or something)

Link to crosstabs:
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=ea81d6f1-db8e-4f77-b44a-63e9893acc3e

[SCNCmod]

Bad news for the DEMs:

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/GA_RO.html

So far, there are 1.1 million mail ballot requests for the Special Elections, with 54% of requests coming from 65+ old voters.

There were 1.8 million mail ballot requests for the November GE, with 41% of requests coming from 65+ old voters.

65+ old voters went Trump+12.

This actually Matches the SurveyUSA Dec 3rd Poll crosstabs:
Ossoff +2       (Ossoff 50  Perdue 48)
Warnock +7    (Warnock 52  Loeffler 47)

Crosstabs indicate that 41% of VBM in runoff will be 65+.
(in each remaining age group about 23% are going to VBM).

And of everyone planning to VBM in runoff:

In the General Election, these voters made of the following % of each candidates' total:
38% Warnock, 16% Loeffler, 11% Collins
37% Ossoff, 13% Perdue

In the Runoff, there are project to make of this % of each candidates' total vote:
37% Warnock, 14% Loeffler
35% Ossoff, 17% Perdue

So definitely not a big deal- seeing as the number so far matches this poll  (yet the poll still has Warnock and Ossoff on top... which would indicate that more older voters across the board, are planning to vote by mail this time rather than in person- maybe due to the anticipated covid spike or something)

Link to crosstabs:
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=ea81d6f1-db8e-4f77-b44a-63e9893acc3e

Of the 1.1 Million Ballots request- 325,000 of those are ballots that were automatically sent to voters 65+ who checked a box in the primary to get VBM ballots automatically sent to them. Anyone else must request a VBM ballot by Jan 1st.  (Early In-Person Voting Runs Dec 14-31).  So considering 30% of those 65+ were automatically sent Ballots on Day 1... the high 65+% of total requested ballots thus far- isn't quite as worrisome (esp with 3 weeks left to request a ballot).

Also- as a result of more 65+ deciding to VBM... you should see a drop in the % of 65+ in the Early-In-Person vote.

The Same Poll indicates that of the remaining 65+ :
27% will vote Early-In-Person
27% will vote on Election Day
6% Unsure which of the 3 methods they will use to vote.

Granted- Dem will need to really turn out the Early in Person vote... considering this is when 45% of 18-34's are saying they plan to vote.

*** Also, the poll indicates that the 41% of 65+ who plan to VBM.. will ultimately make up around 33% of the total VBM- so Dems need the late VBM Ballot requesters, to skew under 65... to bring the 65+ percentage down about 7% (to land around 33%)... which is probably expected considering ballots can be requested for another 3 weeks.  

***This is a correction from above- the poll indicates that 40% of 65+ plan to VMB (not that they will make up 40% of the total VBM).

[wbrocks67]

Again... it would be a pretty bad indictment of GA voters if they're okay with these people representing them. This type of stuff makes you wonder if the moderate Rs/college+ whites who hated Trump but were open to Perdue/Loeffler will still support them-

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1336502500862664704

[SteveRogers]

Again... it would be a pretty bad indictment of GA voters if they're okay with these people representing them. This type of stuff makes you wonder if the moderate Rs/college+ whites who hated Trump but were open to Perdue/Loeffler will still support them-

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1336502500862664704

I guess they must not have read Paxton’s lawsuit then, since the relief Paxton is asking for has nothing to do with counting votes.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Again... it would be a pretty bad indictment of GA voters if they're okay with these people representing them. This type of stuff makes you wonder if the moderate Rs/college+ whites who hated Trump but were open to Perdue/Loeffler will still support them-

https://twitter.com/bluestein/status/1336502500862664704

It's a political calculation, and at the end of the day, there aren't that many persuadable voters especially in Georgia, though in a close election, every vote matter. They have to try to appeal to the hardcore Trumpists to get as many of them to turn out for them as possible while still coming off as palatable to the rest of the general public. This is simillar to the boat some Democrats were in, especially in 2016; they had to appeal to both progressives, liberals, and moderates.

[7,052,770]

Warnock & Ossoff better be putting an ad together that says something to the effect of:

"On November 3, Georgians selected Joe Biden to be our next president. But Lqeffler and Perdue want to overturn the election and give Georgia to Trump, because they think their opinion is more important than ours.

Lqeffler and Perdue don't believe in democracy and therefore do not belong in the U.S. Senate"

I realize most Republicans agree with their anti-democracy views, but this should appeal to the squishy moderates who don't love the idea of a Democratic trifecta but do place a high value on patriotism and the American system working.

[wbrocks67]

Warnock & Ossoff better be putting an ad together that says something to the effect of:

"On November 3, Georgians selected Joe Biden to be our next president. But Lqeffler and Perdue want to overturn the election and give Georgia to Trump, because they think their opinion is more important than ours.

Lqeffler and Perdue don't believe in democracy and therefore do not belong in the U.S. Senate"

I realize most Republicans agree with their anti-democracy views, but this should appeal to the squishy moderates who don't love the idea of a Democratic trifecta but do place a high value on patriotism and the American system working.

Yeah, stuff like this to me makes more sense to connect with those on the verge voters than the corruption, unfortunately.

[T0rM3nTeD]

Update

Total of 111,655 ballots accepted so far (1.32M in the General)
Total of 1.135M ballots requested so far (1.782M in the General)

If each county breaks the same way the did in the GE Senate race, the breakdown would be:

Dems - 66,817
GOP - 44,838

[SCNCmod]

Update

Total of 111,655 ballots accepted so far (1.32M in the General)
Total of 1.135M ballots requested so far (1.782M in the General)

If each county breaks the same way the did in the GE Senate race, the breakdown would be:

Dems - 66,817
GOP - 44,838

Has anyone checked to see if the % of 65+ in this group (VBM Ballots requested), is slowly declining with each new total update?  Doing so would confirm whether or not the 65+ % was essentially artificially inflated by the 350,000 ballots that are automatically mailed on Day 1 to 65+ ppl who voted in the primary.

(Also- my guess is that most of the "ballots requested, but not returned" ... comes from those 350,000 automatically sent ballots- since some of them probably vote in person despite automatically being sent a ballot).

[SCNCmod]

Some ppl have questioned or criticized Warnock's strategy in the debate.  But I think Warnock actually did a good job of sticking to a smart strategy:

Loeffler has gone so overboard in trying to vilify Warnock to voters in Georgia- to the point that Warnock simply had to show that he is not the crazed person Loeffler (and probably Fox) had portrayed him to be.  After all, the target for both is those few persuadable voters who likely voted for Biden, but are also willing to vote Repub in the Senate election.

...And to this extent- Warnock came across as being rational and having common sense.  The only issue he really needed to refute (since it seems to bother those few undecided voters), was the defund the police narrative.  Warnock was clear and sounded reasonable in explaining his position- and explaining that he has a history of working with the police (bringing various groups together to come up with a way to work together better, etc).

Regarding the other crazy accusations, having Loeffler repeat them verbatim, as Warnock stuck mainly to answering the questions (and not responding to Loefflers craziness), Made Loeffler truly look like the crazy unstable person (and by comparison Warnock looked like the rational adult on the stage).  I think many of the few objective voters left, probably assumed Loeffler was at least intelligent and rational (and whether she is or not... those voters prob overwhelmingly came away thinking she was neither).

.....

The only thing I wish Warnock had said, was: "I too want to ensure the American Dream for people like Kelly Loeffler, but I also want to ensure the American Dream is available to people who don't start out with six figure inheritances they can use to pay for school and keep them out of debt" (obviously worded better- but find a non-attacking way of shedding some light on the poor working farm girl narrative Loeffler was portraying).... granted, he correctly stayed away from the fact that she became essentially a Billionaire due to marring the CEO, after 2 years or whatever.

I also think Ossoff does a pretty good job of explaining why it's important to not have gridlock during a pandemic, an economy that is shaky, during an innunization roll out, need for an overdue infastructure bill, etc. (so Warnock could have thrown that in a little more).

But overall- Warnock came out of the debate on a stronger footing and he stuck to a strategy that was smart (regarding the small group of voters he was targeting).

[ProgressiveModerate]

Some ppl have questioned or criticized Warnock's strategy in the debate.  But I think Warnock actually did a good job of sticking to a smart strategy:

Loeffler has gone so overboard in trying to vilify Warnock to voters in Georgia- to the point that Warnock simply had to show that he is not the crazed person Loeffler (and probably Fox) had portrayed him to be.  After all, the target for both is those few persuadable voters who likely voted for Biden, but are also willing to vote Repub in the Senate election.

...And to this extent- Warnock came across as being rational and having common sense.  The only issue he really needed to refute (since it seems to bother those few undecided voters), was the defund the police narrative.  Warnock was clear and sounded reasonable in explaining his position- and explaining that he has a history of working with the police (bringing various groups together to come up with a way to work together better, etc).

Regarding the other crazy accusations, having Loeffler repeat them verbatim, as Warnock stuck mainly to answering the questions (and not responding to Loefflers craziness), Made Loeffler truly look like the crazy unstable person (and by comparison Warnock looked like the rational adult on the stage).  I think many of the few objective voters left, probably assumed Loeffler was at least intelligent and rational (and whether she is or not... those voters prob overwhelmingly came away thinking she was neither).

.....

The only thing I wish Warnock had said, was: "I too want to ensure the American Dream for people like Kelly Loeffler, but I also want to ensure the American Dream is available to people who don't start out with six figure inheritances they can use to pay for school and keep them out of debt" (obviously worded better- but find a non-attacking way of shedding some light on the poor working farm girl narrative Loeffler was portraying).... granted, he correctly stayed away from the fact that she became essentially a Billionaire due to marring the CEO, after 2 years or whatever.

I also think Ossoff does a pretty good job of explaining why it's important to not have gridlock during a pandemic, an economy that is shaky, during an innunization roll out, need for an overdue infastructure bill, etc. (so Warnock could have thrown that in a little more).

But overall- Warnock came out of the debate on a stronger footing and he stuck to a strategy that was smart (regarding the small group of voters he was targeting).

I agree. This reminds me of McSally v Kelly debates or Harrison v Graham debates; both Kelly and Harrison would go on to outperform Biden at the top of the ticket, though not by much. The issue for Perdue and Loeffler though is that they need some of the Trump base to turnout for them, running as more sensible canidates might actually cause them to do worse. Some may argue what about Susan Collins or Joe Manchin? Well, I think in the case of Susan Collins, you saw a lot of Trump supporters who didn't necessarily love her put her first anyways because of how critical the race was, and in both the cases of Manchin and Collins, their overperformances weren't because they were moderates, but because they had a chance to build up their names in their respective states.

The issue for Democrats is that their base has tended to be unreliable when the Presidency isn't on the line or there's not someone to vote against. Trump is still on the ballot, but only sort of since he's leaving next month anyways.

At this point, I think whoever loses these Senate races deserve to lose them, especially since it's clear both sides could win with optimal strategy.

[NewYorkExpress]

Warnock apparently compared Benjamin Netanyahu to George Wallace.

After a Senate candidate in Georgia backtracked on his harsh criticism of Israel’s treatment of Palestinians Tuesday, another clip surfaced in which he used controversial language to describe Mideast tensions.


In a 2016 sermon, the Rev. Raphael Warnock, a Democrat, criticized Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s opposition to a two-state solution for peace in the region.

He called Netanyahu’s stance “tantamount to saying occupation today, occupation tomorrow, occupation forever,” a line similar to former Alabama Gov. George Wallace’s call for, “segregation now, segregation tomorrow and segregation forever.”


He went on to argue that there could be no democracy in Israel without a two-state solution because of the disenfranchisement of Arab voters.

[Horus]

Warnock apparently compared Benjamin Netanyahu to George Wallace.

After a Senate candidate in Georgia backtracked on his harsh criticism of Israel’s treatment of Palestinians Tuesday, another clip surfaced in which he used controversial language to describe Mideast tensions.


In a 2016 sermon, the Rev. Raphael Warnock, a Democrat, criticized Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s opposition to a two-state solution for peace in the region.

He called Netanyahu’s stance “tantamount to saying occupation today, occupation tomorrow, occupation forever,” a line similar to former Alabama Gov. George Wallace’s call for, “segregation now, segregation tomorrow and segregation forever.”


He went on to argue that there could be no democracy in Israel without a two-state solution because of the disenfranchisement of Arab voters.

I love him even more now.