Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

[T0rM3nTeD]

Made a model that calculates an estimate of how many votes it thinks canidates have won based on how things broke in the GE.

Thus far, it thinks Osoff and Warnock have each recieved 463k votes, and Loefller and Perdue 451k for a narrow 1.3% margin.

It doesn't take into account that the votes cast thus far are likely to skew heavily D. This shows that thus far, turnout in counties that heavily backed Biden isn't much higher than counties that heavily backed Trump. I'll continue to update it and try to add on features.

Here's the link: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1CHaYVrkw7GVGga4Jna_d4Kau8ESLYHCEKO9-INR_P9o/edit?usp=sharing

Write turnout values by county to play around with it.

Yours is probably more advanced than mine. For mine I just calculate each county by vote type, and take the same percentage breakdown for each vote type per county that happened in the senate race in the GE. I've got it at Dems 489,894 and GOP 424,203.

[T0rM3nTeD]

12/18 Update

Total of 481,171 (+54K) mail ballots accepted so far (1.32M in the General)
Total of 1.300M (+16K) mail ballots requested so far (1.782M in the General)
Total of 641,924 (+155K) EIP votes so far (2.694M in the General)

Breakdown of those votes by county following same percentages that they broke in the General Senate race would result in:

Dems - 596,629 (+106K)
GOP - 526,466 (+102K)

Dems +70,162 (+5K)

[Tender Branson]

Looks like mail requests will top out at around 1.5 million in the end vs. 1.8 million for the GE.

When is the last day people can request a mail ballot ?

This 300k reduction would indicate a turnout of some 4 million overall for the runoffs, down from the 5 million in the GE.

[SenatorCouzens]

I can see these races ending up anywhere from 1.5% Dem win to 4.5% Rep win, with somewhere in between (a 1 to 2% Rep win) the most likely.

While turnout is an obvious x factor, other x factors to my mind are do the Atlanta suburbs "bounce back" (even just a little) to any non-Trump Republican now and do independent voters want a check on Biden -- and the extent to which Trump's continued prominence in political life cut against those trends.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1CHaYVrkw7GVGga4Jna_d4Kau8ESLYHCEKO9-INR_P9o/edit?usp=sharing

Made a more detailed calculator which outputs 609k for Ds and 508k for Rs at the moment. Here, you can specify how many votes were cast absentee, in person early, and on election day.

The full model (on a seperate spreadsheet) currently expects a Trump +9.43 electorate which would essentially guarentee a Perdue and Loeffler win, but it's not quite not done yet and needs to be refined because it assumes a disproportionate amount of the remaining vote will be in person

[wbrocks67]

VBM + IN PERSON EARLY
Nov GE: 4.03M (56.5% white, 27.7% black) ---> +28.8 white
12/15: 483K (53.9% white, 33.4% black) ---> +20.5 white
12/16: 715K (54.5% white, 33.1% black) ---> +21.4 white
12/17: 914K (55.0% white, 32.5% black) —> +22.5 white
12/18: 1.12M (55.4% white, 32.0% black) —> +23.4 white

VBM requests
Nov GE: 1.78M (51.2% white, 31.4% black) ---> +19.8 white
12/10: 1.17M (53.6% white, 31.2% black) ---> +22.4 white
12/13: 1.25M (53.0% white, 31.6% black) ---> +21.4 white
12/17: 1.28M (52.2% white, 32.0% black) —> +20.2 white
12/18: 1.30M (52.0% white, 32.2% black) —> +19.8 white

VBM accepted
Nov GE: 1.32M (53.0% white, 30.3% black) ---> +22.7 white
12/16: 379K (56.9% white, 30.7% black) ---> +26.2 white
12/17: 427K (56.5% white, 31.0% black) —> +25.5 white
12/18: 481K (56.3% white, 30.9% black) —> +25.4 white

IN PERSON EARLY votes
Nov GE: 2.69M (58.2% white, 26.4% black) ---> +31.8 white
12/16: 336K (51.9% white, 35.8% black) ---> +16.1 white
12/17: 487K (53.7% white, 33.9% black) —> +19.8 white
12/18: 642K (54.7% white, 32.8% black) —> +21.9 white

We'll see what Souls to the Polls does this weekend

[Agafin]

VBM + IN PERSON EARLY
Nov GE: 4.03M (56.5% white, 27.7% black) ---> +28.8 white
12/15: 483K (53.9% white, 33.4% black) ---> +20.5 white
12/16: 715K (54.5% white, 33.1% black) ---> +21.4 white
12/17: 914K (55.0% white, 32.5% black) —> +22.5 white
12/18: 1.12M (55.4% white, 32.0% black) —> +23.4 white

VBM requests
Nov GE: 1.78M (51.2% white, 31.4% black) ---> +19.8 white
12/10: 1.17M (53.6% white, 31.2% black) ---> +22.4 white
12/13: 1.25M (53.0% white, 31.6% black) ---> +21.4 white
12/17: 1.28M (52.2% white, 32.0% black) —> +20.2 white
12/18: 1.30M (52.0% white, 32.2% black) —> +19.8 white

VBM accepted
Nov GE: 1.32M (53.0% white, 30.3% black) ---> +22.7 white
12/16: 379K (56.9% white, 30.7% black) ---> +26.2 white
12/17: 427K (56.5% white, 31.0% black) —> +25.5 white
12/18: 481K (56.3% white, 30.9% black) —> +25.4 white

IN PERSON EARLY votes
Nov GE: 2.69M (58.2% white, 26.4% black) ---> +31.8 white
12/16: 336K (51.9% white, 35.8% black) ---> +16.1 white
12/17: 487K (53.7% white, 33.9% black) —> +19.8 white
12/18: 642K (54.7% white, 32.8% black) —> +21.9 white

We'll see what Souls to the Polls does this weekend

If I'm reading this right, the electorate seems to be getting more favorable for republicans, right? Do you have a similar daily breakdown for the General Election?

[EastwoodS]

VBM + IN PERSON EARLY
Nov GE: 4.03M (56.5% white, 27.7% black) ---> +28.8 white
12/15: 483K (53.9% white, 33.4% black) ---> +20.5 white
12/16: 715K (54.5% white, 33.1% black) ---> +21.4 white
12/17: 914K (55.0% white, 32.5% black) —> +22.5 white
12/18: 1.12M (55.4% white, 32.0% black) —> +23.4 white

VBM requests
Nov GE: 1.78M (51.2% white, 31.4% black) ---> +19.8 white
12/10: 1.17M (53.6% white, 31.2% black) ---> +22.4 white
12/13: 1.25M (53.0% white, 31.6% black) ---> +21.4 white
12/17: 1.28M (52.2% white, 32.0% black) —> +20.2 white
12/18: 1.30M (52.0% white, 32.2% black) —> +19.8 white

VBM accepted
Nov GE: 1.32M (53.0% white, 30.3% black) ---> +22.7 white
12/16: 379K (56.9% white, 30.7% black) ---> +26.2 white
12/17: 427K (56.5% white, 31.0% black) —> +25.5 white
12/18: 481K (56.3% white, 30.9% black) —> +25.4 white

IN PERSON EARLY votes
Nov GE: 2.69M (58.2% white, 26.4% black) ---> +31.8 white
12/16: 336K (51.9% white, 35.8% black) ---> +16.1 white
12/17: 487K (53.7% white, 33.9% black) —> +19.8 white
12/18: 642K (54.7% white, 32.8% black) —> +21.9 white

We'll see what Souls to the Polls does this weekend

If I'm reading this right, the electorate seems to be getting more favorable for republicans, right? Do you have a similar daily breakdown for the General Election?

Recent polls seem to be VERY friendly to the Republicans too.

[Tender Branson]

VBM + IN PERSON EARLY
Nov GE: 4.03M (56.5% white, 27.7% black) ---> +28.8 white
12/15: 483K (53.9% white, 33.4% black) ---> +20.5 white
12/16: 715K (54.5% white, 33.1% black) ---> +21.4 white
12/17: 914K (55.0% white, 32.5% black) —> +22.5 white
12/18: 1.12M (55.4% white, 32.0% black) —> +23.4 white

VBM requests
Nov GE: 1.78M (51.2% white, 31.4% black) ---> +19.8 white
12/10: 1.17M (53.6% white, 31.2% black) ---> +22.4 white
12/13: 1.25M (53.0% white, 31.6% black) ---> +21.4 white
12/17: 1.28M (52.2% white, 32.0% black) —> +20.2 white
12/18: 1.30M (52.0% white, 32.2% black) —> +19.8 white

VBM accepted
Nov GE: 1.32M (53.0% white, 30.3% black) ---> +22.7 white
12/16: 379K (56.9% white, 30.7% black) ---> +26.2 white
12/17: 427K (56.5% white, 31.0% black) —> +25.5 white
12/18: 481K (56.3% white, 30.9% black) —> +25.4 white

IN PERSON EARLY votes
Nov GE: 2.69M (58.2% white, 26.4% black) ---> +31.8 white
12/16: 336K (51.9% white, 35.8% black) ---> +16.1 white
12/17: 487K (53.7% white, 33.9% black) —> +19.8 white
12/18: 642K (54.7% white, 32.8% black) —> +21.9 white

We'll see what Souls to the Polls does this weekend

If I'm reading this right, the electorate seems to be getting more favorable for republicans, right? Do you have a similar daily breakdown for the General Election?

Recent polls seem to be VERY friendly to the Republicans too.

The more mail ballots are being returned and the more early vote is in, the electorate will resemble the GE electorate from Nov. 3rd.

As you can see above, the Black/minority share declines every day.

The older age of the electorate compared to the GE electorate remains though.

Advantage Rs, but a surprise D win still cannot be completely ruled out.

[EastwoodS]

VBM + IN PERSON EARLY
Nov GE: 4.03M (56.5% white, 27.7% black) ---> +28.8 white
12/15: 483K (53.9% white, 33.4% black) ---> +20.5 white
12/16: 715K (54.5% white, 33.1% black) ---> +21.4 white
12/17: 914K (55.0% white, 32.5% black) —> +22.5 white
12/18: 1.12M (55.4% white, 32.0% black) —> +23.4 white

VBM requests
Nov GE: 1.78M (51.2% white, 31.4% black) ---> +19.8 white
12/10: 1.17M (53.6% white, 31.2% black) ---> +22.4 white
12/13: 1.25M (53.0% white, 31.6% black) ---> +21.4 white
12/17: 1.28M (52.2% white, 32.0% black) —> +20.2 white
12/18: 1.30M (52.0% white, 32.2% black) —> +19.8 white

VBM accepted
Nov GE: 1.32M (53.0% white, 30.3% black) ---> +22.7 white
12/16: 379K (56.9% white, 30.7% black) ---> +26.2 white
12/17: 427K (56.5% white, 31.0% black) —> +25.5 white
12/18: 481K (56.3% white, 30.9% black) —> +25.4 white

IN PERSON EARLY votes
Nov GE: 2.69M (58.2% white, 26.4% black) ---> +31.8 white
12/16: 336K (51.9% white, 35.8% black) ---> +16.1 white
12/17: 487K (53.7% white, 33.9% black) —> +19.8 white
12/18: 642K (54.7% white, 32.8% black) —> +21.9 white

We'll see what Souls to the Polls does this weekend

If I'm reading this right, the electorate seems to be getting more favorable for republicans, right? Do you have a similar daily breakdown for the General Election?

Recent polls seem to be VERY friendly to the Republicans too.

The more mail ballots are being returned and the more early vote is in, the electorate will resemble the GE electorate from Nov. 3rd.

As you can see above, the Black/minority share declines every day.

The older age of the electorate compared to the GE electorate remains though.

Advantage Rs, but a surprise D win still cannot be completely ruled out.

It’ll be close, no doubt, however, I also saw a poll that stated many Biden voters feared a Democratic trifecta in Congress?? It’s been a few weeks, but I thought I saw that somewhere.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Rs are blocking stimulus checks and all due to fact they see Warnock and Ossoff losing, they may not be any bonus checks in the mail, but enhanced unemployment benefits, that's the way it is

[Crumpets]

What's the best way to ensure your base turns out to vote in Georgia by January 5th?

Calling for them to be in DC the next day probably isn't it.

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1340185773220515840

[wbrocks67]

VBM + IN PERSON EARLY
Nov GE: 4.03M (56.5% white, 27.7% black) ---> +28.8 white
12/15: 483K (53.9% white, 33.4% black) ---> +20.5 white
12/16: 715K (54.5% white, 33.1% black) ---> +21.4 white
12/17: 914K (55.0% white, 32.5% black) —> +22.5 white
12/18: 1.12M (55.4% white, 32.0% black) —> +23.4 white

VBM requests
Nov GE: 1.78M (51.2% white, 31.4% black) ---> +19.8 white
12/10: 1.17M (53.6% white, 31.2% black) ---> +22.4 white
12/13: 1.25M (53.0% white, 31.6% black) ---> +21.4 white
12/17: 1.28M (52.2% white, 32.0% black) —> +20.2 white
12/18: 1.30M (52.0% white, 32.2% black) —> +19.8 white

VBM accepted
Nov GE: 1.32M (53.0% white, 30.3% black) ---> +22.7 white
12/16: 379K (56.9% white, 30.7% black) ---> +26.2 white
12/17: 427K (56.5% white, 31.0% black) —> +25.5 white
12/18: 481K (56.3% white, 30.9% black) —> +25.4 white

IN PERSON EARLY votes
Nov GE: 2.69M (58.2% white, 26.4% black) ---> +31.8 white
12/16: 336K (51.9% white, 35.8% black) ---> +16.1 white
12/17: 487K (53.7% white, 33.9% black) —> +19.8 white
12/18: 642K (54.7% white, 32.8% black) —> +21.9 white

We'll see what Souls to the Polls does this weekend

If I'm reading this right, the electorate seems to be getting more favorable for republicans, right? Do you have a similar daily breakdown for the General Election?

I mean, right now it's only bc the first few days were VERY favorable to Dems, so it's continuing to equal out

[wbrocks67]

VBM + IN PERSON EARLY
Nov GE: 4.03M (56.5% white, 27.7% black) ---> +28.8 white
12/15: 483K (53.9% white, 33.4% black) ---> +20.5 white
12/16: 715K (54.5% white, 33.1% black) ---> +21.4 white
12/17: 914K (55.0% white, 32.5% black) —> +22.5 white
12/18: 1.12M (55.4% white, 32.0% black) —> +23.4 white
12/19: 1.34M (55.6% white, 31.6% black) —> +24.0 white

VBM requests
Nov GE: 1.78M (51.2% white, 31.4% black) ---> +19.8 white
12/10: 1.17M (53.6% white, 31.2% black) ---> +22.4 white
12/13: 1.25M (53.0% white, 31.6% black) ---> +21.4 white
12/17: 1.28M (52.2% white, 32.0% black) —> +20.2 white
12/18: 1.30M (52.0% white, 32.2% black) —> +19.8 white
12/19: 1.31M (51.8% white, 32.4% black) —> +19.4 white

VBM accepted
Nov GE: 1.32M (53.0% white, 30.3% black) ---> +22.7 white
12/16: 379K (56.9% white, 30.7% black) ---> +26.2 white
12/17: 427K (56.5% white, 31.0% black) —> +25.5 white
12/18: 481K (56.3% white, 30.9% black) —> +25.4 white
12/19: 525K (56.1% white, 30.9% black) —> +25.2 white

IN PERSON EARLY votes
Nov GE: 2.69M (58.2% white, 26.4% black) ---> +31.8 white
12/16: 336K (51.9% white, 35.8% black) ---> +16.1 white
12/17: 487K (53.7% white, 33.9% black) —> +19.8 white
12/18: 642K (54.7% white, 32.8% black) —> +21.9 white
12/19: 812K (55.3% white, 32.0% black) —> +23.3 white

VBM requests are now less white than they were in the GE, so it depends on how many get returned. The white share keeps going down as more mail-ins are returned. In person is getting more whiter, so we'll see if it tops the +31.8 though from the GE.

[ProgressiveModerate]

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1CHaYVrkw7GVGga4Jna_d4Kau8ESLYHCEKO9-INR_P9o/edit?usp=sharing

Made a more detailed calculator which outputs 609k for Ds and 508k for Rs at the moment. Here, you can specify how many votes were cast absentee, in person early, and on election day.

The full model (on a seperate spreadsheet) currently expects a Trump +9.43 electorate which would essentially guarentee a Perdue and Loeffler win, but it's not quite not done yet and needs to be refined because it assumes a disproportionate amount of the remaining vote will be in person

It's down to Trump +8.67 today using the same methodology. This number is likely to decrease as we get closer to election day; we'll see if it flips.

[forsythvoter]

There's an article on Slate https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/12/georgia-senate-runoff-republicans-loeffler-perdue-trump.html that might be insightful to those looking to better understand the N Atlanta suburban voting patterns. It's an interview with the mayor of Sandy Springs, one of the affluent close-in northern suburbs of Atlanta that's swung pretty dramatically Democratic over the past 8 years.

Some more memorable quotes from this article:
 
"I’m hoping after Jan. 5, we can start picking up the pieces and we can put back at least part of that coalition. But it’s going to be a challenge because once you vote Democratic in three elections—2016, 2018, 2020—it quickly becomes a habit." <-- I hadn't really thoughts about it this way but it's true the ATL suburbs have now voted Dem in 3 elections in a row and it's starting to become a habit for many voters in this area

"There would appear to be about 100,000 Republicans who voted for Biden but came back and voted Republican in the Senate race and the rest of the ballot box." <-- I doubt this many self-identifying Republicans voted for Biden, but there are lot of R-leaning indies that did this election. This is the group I've been saying will decide the Senate runoffs, but I would add that many in this group also have been quite turned off by the post-Trump fraud theatrics and Loeffler and Perdue's embrace of them.

[Calthrina950]

There's an article on Slate https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/12/georgia-senate-runoff-republicans-loeffler-perdue-trump.html that might be insightful to those looking to better understand the N Atlanta suburban voting patterns. It's an interview with the mayor of Sandy Springs, one of the affluent close-in northern suburbs of Atlanta that's swung pretty dramatically Democratic over the past 8 years.

Some more memorable quotes from this article:
 
"I’m hoping after Jan. 5, we can start picking up the pieces and we can put back at least part of that coalition. But it’s going to be a challenge because once you vote Democratic in three elections—2016, 2018, 2020—it quickly becomes a habit." <-- I hadn't really thoughts about it this way but it's true the ATL suburbs have now voted Dem in 3 elections in a row and it's starting to become a habit for many voters in this area

"There would appear to be about 100,000 Republicans who voted for Biden but came back and voted Republican in the Senate race and the rest of the ballot box." <-- I doubt this many self-identifying Republicans voted for Biden, but there are lot of R-leaning indies that did this election. This is the group I've been saying will decide the Senate runoffs, but I would add that many in this group also have been quite turned off by the post-Trump fraud theatrics and Loeffler and Perdue's embrace of them.

Who would you say is favored in the two runoffs right now? Warnock/Ossoff, or Loeffler/Perdue? The most recent polls I've seen (and yes, I'm aware of what happened with polling this year) seem to indicate that Loeffler/Perdue have the advantage, and I personally expect them to eke out victories. But what are you seeing where you live? I know you've talked at length about how many independents and moderates in Georgia have been alienated by what has happened over the past month since the presidential election.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

There's an article on Slate https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/12/georgia-senate-runoff-republicans-loeffler-perdue-trump.html that might be insightful to those looking to better understand the N Atlanta suburban voting patterns. It's an interview with the mayor of Sandy Springs, one of the affluent close-in northern suburbs of Atlanta that's swung pretty dramatically Democratic over the past 8 years.

Some more memorable quotes from this article:
 
"I’m hoping after Jan. 5, we can start picking up the pieces and we can put back at least part of that coalition. But it’s going to be a challenge because once you vote Democratic in three elections—2016, 2018, 2020—it quickly becomes a habit." <-- I hadn't really thoughts about it this way but it's true the ATL suburbs have now voted Dem in 3 elections in a row and it's starting to become a habit for many voters in this area

"There would appear to be about 100,000 Republicans who voted for Biden but came back and voted Republican in the Senate race and the rest of the ballot box." <-- I doubt this many self-identifying Republicans voted for Biden, but there are lot of R-leaning indies that did this election. This is the group I've been saying will decide the Senate runoffs, but I would add that many in this group also have been quite turned off by the post-Trump fraud theatrics and Loeffler and Perdue's embrace of them.

Its the same pattern really for many suburbs after 1992. After a number of elections, it becomes engrained and that is why 2006 and 2008 were bad in places like the Philly Burbs. We saw a similar dynamic in the collar of Cook after 2008-2012-2016 and of course NOVA likewise.

[forsythvoter]

There's an article on Slate https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/12/georgia-senate-runoff-republicans-loeffler-perdue-trump.html that might be insightful to those looking to better understand the N Atlanta suburban voting patterns. It's an interview with the mayor of Sandy Springs, one of the affluent close-in northern suburbs of Atlanta that's swung pretty dramatically Democratic over the past 8 years.

Some more memorable quotes from this article:
 
"I’m hoping after Jan. 5, we can start picking up the pieces and we can put back at least part of that coalition. But it’s going to be a challenge because once you vote Democratic in three elections—2016, 2018, 2020—it quickly becomes a habit." <-- I hadn't really thoughts about it this way but it's true the ATL suburbs have now voted Dem in 3 elections in a row and it's starting to become a habit for many voters in this area

"There would appear to be about 100,000 Republicans who voted for Biden but came back and voted Republican in the Senate race and the rest of the ballot box." <-- I doubt this many self-identifying Republicans voted for Biden, but there are lot of R-leaning indies that did this election. This is the group I've been saying will decide the Senate runoffs, but I would add that many in this group also have been quite turned off by the post-Trump fraud theatrics and Loeffler and Perdue's embrace of them.

Who would you say is favored in the two runoffs right now? Warnock/Ossoff, or Loeffler/Perdue? The most recent polls I've seen (and yes, I'm aware of what happened with polling this year) seem to indicate that Loeffler/Perdue have the advantage, and I personally expect them to eke out victories. But what are you seeing where you live? I know you've talked at length about how many independents and moderates in Georgia have been alienated by what has happened over the past month since the presidential election.

I think Perdue is somewhat favored and Loeffler / Warnock is pretty close to a toss-up, if you were basing it off just my circle of Biden / R down-ballot voters. Warnock has a better chance fairly or unfairly because that senate seat is up for re-election in 2 years and many Biden / R downballot voters seem inclined to give a D a shot as long as it doesn't create a D trifecta if for no other reason than as a protest against Trump's continuous sway within the R party.

I will also add that I actually think Dems' odds have improved since the general election. If the runoff were held the week after the general election, I actually think Perdue and Loeffler would have been in somewhat better standing. It definitely feels like there's been some erosion in their support among R-leaning Biden voters over the last few weeks as Perdue / Loeffler have become increasingly vocal about their support for overturning the GA election results.

One final note - GA 6 and GA 7 traditionally have above average turnout rates in the state. They are at the bottom at the turnout so far and I'm actually pretty sure it's because there are a lot of Biden / R downballot voters who are still trying to decide who to vote for or more reluctant Trump voters that don't want to vote D but don't want to support Trump's party. These voters are not guaranteed to be D / R voters and I think they are the ones that are going to swing the state one way or another.

[forsythvoter]

There's an article on Slate https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/12/georgia-senate-runoff-republicans-loeffler-perdue-trump.html that might be insightful to those looking to better understand the N Atlanta suburban voting patterns. It's an interview with the mayor of Sandy Springs, one of the affluent close-in northern suburbs of Atlanta that's swung pretty dramatically Democratic over the past 8 years.

Some more memorable quotes from this article:
 
"I’m hoping after Jan. 5, we can start picking up the pieces and we can put back at least part of that coalition. But it’s going to be a challenge because once you vote Democratic in three elections—2016, 2018, 2020—it quickly becomes a habit." <-- I hadn't really thoughts about it this way but it's true the ATL suburbs have now voted Dem in 3 elections in a row and it's starting to become a habit for many voters in this area

"There would appear to be about 100,000 Republicans who voted for Biden but came back and voted Republican in the Senate race and the rest of the ballot box." <-- I doubt this many self-identifying Republicans voted for Biden, but there are lot of R-leaning indies that did this election. This is the group I've been saying will decide the Senate runoffs, but I would add that many in this group also have been quite turned off by the post-Trump fraud theatrics and Loeffler and Perdue's embrace of them.

Its the same pattern really for many suburbs after 1992. After a number of elections, it becomes engrained and that is why 2006 and 2008 were bad in places like the Philly Burbs. We saw a similar dynamic in the collar of Cook after 2008-2012-2016 and of course NOVA likewise.

Yeah, it'll be interesting to see what happens in 2022, regardless of how the runoffs go. I do think even if Loeffler wins, she's going to be one of the most vulnerable Rs for the 2022 cycle.

[ProgressiveModerate]

There's an article on Slate https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/12/georgia-senate-runoff-republicans-loeffler-perdue-trump.html that might be insightful to those looking to better understand the N Atlanta suburban voting patterns. It's an interview with the mayor of Sandy Springs, one of the affluent close-in northern suburbs of Atlanta that's swung pretty dramatically Democratic over the past 8 years.

Some more memorable quotes from this article:
 
"I’m hoping after Jan. 5, we can start picking up the pieces and we can put back at least part of that coalition. But it’s going to be a challenge because once you vote Democratic in three elections—2016, 2018, 2020—it quickly becomes a habit." <-- I hadn't really thoughts about it this way but it's true the ATL suburbs have now voted Dem in 3 elections in a row and it's starting to become a habit for many voters in this area

"There would appear to be about 100,000 Republicans who voted for Biden but came back and voted Republican in the Senate race and the rest of the ballot box." <-- I doubt this many self-identifying Republicans voted for Biden, but there are lot of R-leaning indies that did this election. This is the group I've been saying will decide the Senate runoffs, but I would add that many in this group also have been quite turned off by the post-Trump fraud theatrics and Loeffler and Perdue's embrace of them.

Who would you say is favored in the two runoffs right now? Warnock/Ossoff, or Loeffler/Perdue? The most recent polls I've seen (and yes, I'm aware of what happened with polling this year) seem to indicate that Loeffler/Perdue have the advantage, and I personally expect them to eke out victories. But what are you seeing where you live? I know you've talked at length about how many independents and moderates in Georgia have been alienated by what has happened over the past month since the presidential election.

I think Perdue is somewhat favored and Loeffler / Warnock is pretty close to a toss-up, if you were basing it off just my circle of Biden / R down-ballot voters. Warnock has a better chance fairly or unfairly because that senate seat is up for re-election in 2 years and many Biden / R downballot voters seem inclined to give a D a shot as long as it doesn't create a D trifecta if for no other reason than as a protest against Trump's continuous sway within the R party.

I will also add that I actually think Dems' odds have improved since the general election. If the runoff were held the week after the general election, I actually think Perdue and Loeffler would have been in somewhat better standing. It definitely feels like there's been some erosion in their support among R-leaning Biden voters over the last few weeks as Perdue / Loeffler have become increasingly vocal about their support for overturning the GA election results.

One final note - GA 6 and GA 7 traditionally have above average turnout rates in the state. They are at the bottom at the turnout so far and I'm actually pretty sure it's because there are a lot of Biden / R downballot voters who are still trying to decide who to vote for or more reluctant Trump voters that don't want to vote D but don't want to support Trump's party. These voters are not guaranteed to be D / R voters and I think they are the ones that are going to swing the state one way or another.

Definately very interesting point you bring up about GA-6 and 7. Most on Atlas seem to characterize them as well-to-do moderate suburbs of Atlanta, which is likely true to some degree, though maybe not quite to the extent some on Atlas like to say. It's just interesting that these 2 districts which generally seem to lean D at this point and has an outsized share of the so called "high propensity" voters don't have good turnout yet, so that you bring up the first viable reason why that might be the case. If that's true, I'm really glad to see voters thinking long and hard about who they will vote for. These runoffs will playa  great role in deciding the future of our country, and even if the outcome isn't what I personally want, I'll feel better knowing people really considered their vote.

[GALeftist]

100,000 seems like it's pushing it. NYT has Perdue 763 votes ahead of Trump. Granted, for some reason they have more votes counted for President than Senate (not sure if this is undervote or just a reporting quirk: NYT says Pres is at 100% in but Senate is at 99% in), but going off percentages I would guess that there are about 20,000 of these voters tops. That's certainly enough to swing a close election, but I don't think there's this huge mythical group of split ticket voters.

[Brittain33]

100,000 seems like it's pushing it. NYT has Perdue 763 votes ahead of Trump. Granted, for some reason they have more votes counted for President than Senate (not sure if this is undervote or just a reporting quirk: NYT says Pres is at 100% in but Senate is at 99% in), but going off percentages I would guess that there are about 20,000 of these voters tops. That's certainly enough to swing a close election, but I don't think there's this huge mythical group of split ticket voters.

What if there are tens of thousands of low-information Trump voters who didn’t bother to vote for Senate? That would allow for a large number of Biden-Purdue voters.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Fulton, DeKalb, Muscogee, Henry, Floyd, and Gwinnett are the only counties doing early voting today so I expect tomorrow's update to skew against the white voter share.

[GALeftist]

100,000 seems like it's pushing it. NYT has Perdue 763 votes ahead of Trump. Granted, for some reason they have more votes counted for President than Senate (not sure if this is undervote or just a reporting quirk: NYT says Pres is at 100% in but Senate is at 99% in), but going off percentages I would guess that there are about 20,000 of these voters tops. That's certainly enough to swing a close election, but I don't think there's this huge mythical group of split ticket voters.

What if there are tens of thousands of low-information Trump voters who didn’t bother to vote for Senate? That would allow for a large number of Biden-Purdue voters.

I guess that could be it, but from a cursory glance at the data I see more evidence of Biden voters not voting for senate than Trump voters, and in the absence of such evidence I would hesitate to say that there were enough of them to make up that 80k gap.