Chile Constitutional Referendum, September 4th 2022

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Everyone is laughing at Kast because he said he won’t build new coal plants and the “new plants” in his platform are supposedly from the Bachelet administration. Won’t hurt him among his core base but you know, not a good look.

[Lumine]

Much like how Boric maintained discipline for a while then started to slip (in general, not this specific debate), seems it's like JAK's time to screw up a bit.

[kaoras]

Kast petulantly denied that his program said that he was opening new carbon thermoelectrics. The journalist read his program. He said that the program was referring to "new thermoelectrics that aren't going to exist" and were Bachelet's (?) and then denied his program.

Jesus, that is easily the worst moment of the night.

[kaoras]

I think Sichel won the debate. Boric second by default. This is going to be very interesting.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

I think Kast lost more than anything else. Partly by default, partly from some serious unforced errors.

[Lumine]

The hell happened with MEO? (I missed it, only heard him complain)

[kaoras]

The hell happened with MEO? (I missed it, only heard him complain)

Apparently Boric laughed or something, but the camera didn't show it so the only thing we saw was MEO whining.

[PSOL]

Artes usually is a notable presence on the debate stage, what happened?

[Lumine]

Artes usually is a notable presence on the debate stage, what happened?

He really wasn't any different than any other night. Colorful, lost in time, and utterly meaningless in the grand scale of things.

If he was a more serious candidate he could have certainly exploited the hard-left, anti-establishment niche that has always distrusted Boric (the very same the LDP wanted to court before imploding) and be a larger factor, but his own flaws or perceived lack of seriousness ensure he remains stuck in 1-2%.

[kaoras]

Yes to all what lumine said, but even with that, I think Artés could have got up to 5-6% if Kast had not surged. Is the fear of Kast that has brought most of the reluctant leftists to settle with Boric.

Btw, seeing LOTS of anecdotal evidence of Kast voters switching back to Sichel, will it be enough to get Sichel into the runoff?
 

[Lumine]

Yes to all what lumine said, but even with that, I think Artés could have got up to 5-6% if Kast had not surged. Is the fear of Kast that has brought most of the reluctant leftists to settle with Boric.

Btw, seeing LOTS of anecdotal evidence of Kast voters switching back to Sichel, will it be enough to get Sichel into the runoff?
 

I mean, I wish, but I can't see it yet. The sad reality is that a lot of voters made the switch to Kast on an emotional level and I don't think they're coming back nor will be the swayed by the debate (like the Twitter brigade, accusing Sichel of being "disloyal").

I do think this may allow Sichel to surpass Provoste and get third, but barring some specific issues with turnout - like the suggestion that Kast is polling higher with people less likely to vote -, it may just be too late for the second round.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Impeachment debate in the Senate. Ossandón (RN, strong Piñera critic during the scandal) is abstaining - and if he’s not a yes it’s all but dead.

[kaoras]

Piñera impeachment predictably failed. Honestly the whole affair was very low key compared with the chamber of deputies, totally overshadowed by the debate yesterday and the current soccer match.

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Jacqueline van Rysselberghe (with a name like that it’s not hard to guess she’s the former president of the UDI) has officially announced that she’s voting for Kast in the first round in an attempt to stanch the bleeding after last weekend’s debate.

[kaoras]

Jacqueline van Rysselberghe (with a name like that it’s not hard to guess she’s the former president of the UDI) has officially announced that she’s voting for Kast in the first round in an attempt to stanch the bleeding after last weekend’s debate.

We actually have a post debate poll! from no other than CADEM

It has:

Kast 30% (-2)
Boric 27% (+1)
Sichel 13% (+4)
Parisi 12% (-1)
Provoste 11% (-1)
Ominami 6% (-1)
Artés 1%

Now, this poll is from CADEM online panel, and their usual polls are by phone, so is not really comparable. But it seems that Kast was not hurt by much among hiper engaged voters (90% of the panel said that they watched the debate lmao)

[kaoras]

Karina Oliva, failed FA gubernatorial candidate and candidate for senator for the Metropolitan Region, is facing a scandal regarding her campaign expenses for her gubernatorial run. FA is ditching her at lightning speed. She was one of the favourites to get a seat (well, I think she only polled well because of name ID, she is an awful candidate, but whatever), now the race is very open.

[Lumine]

Karina Oliva, failed FA gubernatorial candidate and candidate for senator for the Metropolitan Region, is facing a scandal regarding her campaign expenses for her gubernatorial run. FA is ditching her at lightning speed. She was one of my favourites to get a seat (well, I think she only polled well because of name ID, she is an awful candidate, but whatever), now the race is very open.

It is quite remarkable how bad of a candidate Oliva was last time, as she could easily be the incumbent governor right now.

Who do you believe will gain the most because of this? Depolo (who has also been screwing up) within the FA, Tellier/Pascual within AD, or Campillai from the outside?

[kaoras]

Karina Oliva, failed FA gubernatorial candidate and candidate for senator for the Metropolitan Region, is facing a scandal regarding her campaign expenses for her gubernatorial run. FA is ditching her at lightning speed. She was one of my favourites to get a seat (well, I think she only polled well because of name ID, she is an awful candidate, but whatever), now the race is very open.

It is quite remarkable how bad of a candidate Oliva was last time, as she could easily be the incumbent governor right now.

Who do you believe will gain the most because of this? Depolo (who has also been screwing up) within the FA, Tellier/Pascual within AD, or Campillai from the outside?

I think mainly Campillai and Pascual, this is also what I have been hearing from people in Santiago. Maybe more dispersion could help NPS to get a seat (which could be Vodanovic from PS according to polling, which is kinda surprising, since most people expected that if they managed to get a seat, it would be Silber -DC)

[kaoras]

BTW, Nuevo Pacto Social projections/hopes for the parliamentary elections.

Senate: 10 seats in total, 1 in each region, save for Los Ríos where they would get 2*

PS: 5-8 seats in total (2-5 new seats)
DC: 5-8 seats (2-5 new)
PPD: 7 seats (4 new)
PR: 1-2 seats (1-2 new)
PL: 0-1 (0-1 new)

Chamber of Deputies

40-43 seats in total, Currently they have 50 counting aligned independents.

PS: 10-15
DC: 7-10!
PL: 5-8!!
PPD: 4-5!!!
PR: 2-3!!
CIU: 0-1

Some comments: I'm from Los Rios and yes, I would say that they probably get 2 seats, but I would be very surprised If they also don't get 2 seats from Los Lagos. Their main danger is not getting anything in the Metropolitan Region where their slate is extremely weak.

Regarding the Chamber of Deputies, the DC projections are down compared to the beginning of the campaign, where they still hoped to maintain at least 10 seats. In the 90's the DC used to get 38-37 seats. 

PL is wildly optimistic, to say something. PPD could easily face dissolution (they need 4 seats). The collapse of PPD is low-key impressive, they used to be significantly bigger than PS in terms of seats, in 2001 they had 20 deputies against 10 PS. As recently as 2013 they still tied in seats. PR would also face dissolution, which already happened in the '90s when they had to fuse with a small socialdemocratic party.

[kaoras]

Leaked Pulso Ciudadano poll (it could be either UDD or Activa, both are "Pulso Ciudadano")

Boric 27%
Kast 24%
Sichel 18%
Provoste 10%
MEO 10%
Parisi 9%
Artés 2%

This does see a heavy debate effect, with MEO and Sichel gaining.

[kaoras]

Leaked Cadem phone poll, without undecideds

Kast 28% (-4)
Boric 27% (+1)
Sichel 13% (+4)
Parisi 12% (-1)
Provoste 9% (-3)
MEO 9% (+2)
Artes 2% (+1)

Changes from the last phone poll.

Honestly, the amount of leaks this time, and how easy they have been divulged, has convinced me that the "banned" Cadem primary polls that supposedly saw Boric and Sichel victories did not in fact, exists. How on earth that thing didn't leak but a 2% MEO surge does?

[Lumine]

Leaked Cadem phone poll, without undecideds

Kast 28% (-4)
Boric 27% (+1)
Sichel 13% (+4)
Parisi 12% (-1)
Provoste 9% (-3)
MEO 9% (+2)
Artes 2% (+1)

Changes from the last phone poll.

Honestly, the amount of leaks this time, and how easy they have been divulged, has convinced me that the "banned" Cadem primary polls that supposedly saw Boric and Sichel victories did not in fact, exists. How on earth that thing didn't leak but a 2% MEO surge does?

Wouldn't be surprised if it didn't as it was just too convenient, but then again, the pressure is a lot now given how many percieve the election to be the most open in living memory.

Also, wouldn't want to be in the Provoste HQ if she gets 5th or 6th, or even below MEO, which was unthinkable before. It could just as easily happen to Sichel, but still, what a crippling psychological blow would that be.

[Red Velvet]

I don’t believe in Sichel surpassing Kast so it will still be a Boric vs Kast despite the loss of support seen by Kast after his terrible performance at the debate.

And most of these people shifting from Kast to Sichel are still voting Kast in the runoff against Boric. However, I think it’s good that a “ceiling” for Kast was established because until the debate he was in a non-stop trend of growth. The stop and reversal of his growth can help Boric in the runoff.

[RodPresident]

How would be Lavin performing if he had won primaries?

[kaoras]

New Atlas Intel:

Kast 24,6 (-6,4)
Boric 20,2 (-1,2)
Parisi 15,8 (+5,7)
Sichel 12,7 (+3,5)
Provoste 12,5 (+0,3)
MEO 8,7 (+4,3)
Artes ??

Eh, I buy Parisi on double digits but 16%? The possibility of a Kast-Parisi run off is certainly nightmarish though

Also, Carabineros literally assaulted Comunes (Oliva's party) headquarters in what can not be described as anything else as a politically motivated show (they give the press a heads up but couldn't call Comunes to open the door?). This government is beyond repulsive.