Chile Constitutional Referendum, September 4th 2022

[kaoras]

I assume polls close in Chile 5PM EST.  Any link to results ?

6PM Chile EST but the region of Magallanes has a different time zone, so we will get their results one hour early.

Official Results: https://www.servelelecciones.cl/#/votacion/elecciones_constitucion/global/19001

Nicer Results:
https://live.decidechile.cl/2022/plebiscito

Decide Chile is updating live the foreign vote

[kaoras]

Any chance a miracle happens and approve wins? Boric won with a margin of over 10%, so maybe...

The results look like the 2017 presidential election, which would be consistent with the 45-55 polling. But the foreign voter is not that good of a predictor (let's just remember the first round).

Wishing a miracle requires that the late momentum for approve continues unabated but for example, I just got another UDD poll done yesterday and it moved only from 46 to 46,4.

[Mike88]

Live coverage of the referendum:

T13:

CHV:

CNN Chile

24horas

[kaoras]

Well, I'm gonna be honest. Even though unlike past elections I won't be a poll watcher, I don't think I'm gonna be in the mood of commenting much tonight. But if the results are close enough to have interesting maps, I will do geographical analysis later. (Though maybe not region by region) and will probably start a new thread with the political developments.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Well, I'm gonna be honest. Even though unlike past elections I won't be a poll watcher, I don't think I'm gonna be in the mood of commenting much tonight. But if the results are close enough to have interesting maps, I will do geographical analysis later. (Though maybe not region by region) and will probably start a new thread with the political developments.

I'm really sorry, Kaoras. I can imagine how disheartening this moment must be for you and all Chileans who had hopes of finally achieving real change. Please don't lose hope - no matter how dark things get (and things are pretty dark in my countries too right now) there's always a way forward.

[Mike88]

All of the polls in Europe have now closed, with the last ones in Portugal, the UK and Ireland closed at the start of the hour.

[Ichabod]

With a heavy heart, I just voted for rejecting the constitutional text.

[jaichind]

Any results from overseas areas? Australia, New Zealand?

Found them: https://www.meganoticias.cl/nacional/388519-plebiscito-de-salida-2022-resultados-preliminares-en-el-extranjero.html

Australia:

67.2% Approve
32.8% Disapprove

Japan:

67.6% Approve
32.4% Disapprove

South Korea:

63.7% Approve
36.3% Disapprove

New Zealand:

75.8% Approve
24.2% Disapprove

So far, compared with the runoff of the 2021 elections, Approve is down around 8-10% compared with Boric's results in these countries.

Compared to the 2021 results it seems Approve total vote actually outran Boric's total vote.  The main problem is Disapprove had a large surge on top of the Kast vote.  It seems for Approve to pass turnout has to be as low as possible.

[Mike88]

Well, I'm gonna be honest. Even though unlike past elections I won't be a poll watcher, I don't think I'm gonna be in the mood of commenting much tonight. But if the results are close enough to have interesting maps, I will do geographical analysis later. (Though maybe not region by region) and will probably start a new thread with the political developments.

I'm really sorry, Kaoras. I can imagine how disheartening this moment must be for you and all Chileans who had hopes of finally achieving real change. Please don't lose hope - no matter how dark things get (and things are pretty dark in my countries too right now) there's always a way forward.

Unfortunately, both a reject or approve victory would prolong this process. If reject wins, everything is back to square one, and even if approve wins by a 10% margin it's still useless as the country would be somewhat divided and changes on the new Constitution would be inevitable and create divisions. A Constitution needs to have broad approval, minimum 66%+, otherwise it's very complicated because, at the end of the day, the Constitution is the rulebook of a country and if half doesn't accept the rules, it's a recipe for disaster.

This whole process, unfortunately, started lame and as the saying goes "what is born crooked, late or never straightens."

[Mike88]

Compared to the 2021 results it seems Approve total vote actually outran Boric's total vote.  The main problem is Disapprove had a large surge on top of the Kast vote.  It seems for Approve to pass turnout has to be as low as possible.

Looking at the TV coverage, turnout is being massive with the possibility of surpassing the 10 million votes mark for the first time. As Kaoras pointed, turnout is compulsory and if you don't vote, you would have to pay a fine.

[jaichind]

Compared to the 2021 results it seems Approve total vote actually outran Boric's total vote.  The main problem is Disapprove had a large surge on top of the Kast vote.  It seems for Approve to pass turnout has to be as low as possible.

Looking at the TV coverage, turnout is being massive with the possibility of surpassing the 10 million votes mark for the first time. As Kaoras pointed, turnout is compulsory and if you don't vote, you would have to pay a fine.

I get that but then why would some of the polls separate out all votes and likely voters?  It does seem that there are going to be some that will not vote and risk a fine.  For Approve to pass it seems that number has to be as large as possible.

[Mike88]

Compared to the 2021 results it seems Approve total vote actually outran Boric's total vote.  The main problem is Disapprove had a large surge on top of the Kast vote.  It seems for Approve to pass turnout has to be as low as possible.

Looking at the TV coverage, turnout is being massive with the possibility of surpassing the 10 million votes mark for the first time. As Kaoras pointed, turnout is compulsory and if you don't vote, you would have to pay a fine.

I get that but then why would some of the polls separate out all votes and likely voters?  It does seem that there are going to be some that will not vote and risk a fine.  For Approve to pass it seems that number has to be as large as possible.

Maybe, I don't know to be honest. On the TV coverage, they said that, so far, more than 55,000 people have asked to be excused from voting. You can only ask for an excuse to vote if your polling station is 200km away from your actual residence, from what I heard in the live feed. If not, you have to vote or risk a fine.

[Walmart_shopper]

You can cast a blank ballot to avoid the fine, right?

[kaoras]

Compared to the 2021 results it seems Approve total vote actually outran Boric's total vote.  The main problem is Disapprove had a large surge on top of the Kast vote.  It seems for Approve to pass turnout has to be as low as possible.

Looking at the TV coverage, turnout is being massive with the possibility of surpassing the 10 million votes mark for the first time. As Kaoras pointed, turnout is compulsory and if you don't vote, you would have to pay a fine.

I get that but then why would some of the polls separate out all votes and likely voters?  It does seem that there are going to be some that will not vote and risk a fine.  For Approve to pass it seems that number has to be as large as possible.

Maybe, I don't know to be honest. On the TV coverage, they said that, so far, more than 55,000 people have asked to be excused from voting. You can only ask for an excuse to vote if your polling station is 200km away from your actual residence, from what I heard in the live feed. If not, you have to vote or risk a fine.

Yeah, the LV screens are because pollsters had no idea if people were going to take the compulsory voting seriously and because they always find more turnout than what actually happens (and they are not smart enough to realize that people who answer political polls in online panels are more engaged to begin with)

[Mike88]

You can cast a blank ballot to avoid the fine, right?

Of course, you voted so you avoid a fine.

[If my soul was made of stone]

[Mike88]

Spain results:

65.6% Approve (4,718)
34.4% Reject (2,473)

62.0% Turnout (7,191)

[Continential]

With a heavy heart, I just voted for rejecting the constitutional text.

Out of curiosity, why did you vote to reject?

[jaichind]

Spain results:

65.6% Approve (4,718)
34.4% Reject (2,473)

62.0% Turnout (7,191)

In 2021 it was Boric 3,203 Kast 845.  Either turnout has surged from 2021 or the number of eligible voters has increased in the meantime.

[kaoras]

Spain results:

65.6% Approve (4,718)
34.4% Reject (2,473)

62.0% Turnout (7,191)

In 2021 it was Boric 3,203 Kast 845.  Either turnout has surged from 2021 or the number of eligible voters has increased in the meantime.

Is turnout surge. In almost all countries the increase is so big that the raw vote margin for Approve isn't actually that different from Boric's.

[kaoras]

Spain results:

65.6% Approve (4,718)
34.4% Reject (2,473)

62.0% Turnout (7,191)

Portugal:

Approve 212 (76,2%)
Reject 66 (23,8%)

In 2021 it was Boric 182 (85,4%) and Kast 31 (14,6%)

[Bilardista]

Spain results:

65.6% Approve (4,718)
34.4% Reject (2,473)

62.0% Turnout (7,191)

Portugal:

Approve 212 (76,2%)
Reject 66 (23,8%)

In 2021 it was Boric 182 (85,4%) and Kast 31 (14,6%)

Why is the expat vote so left wing? Seems uncommon for latin america

[kaoras]

Spain results:

65.6% Approve (4,718)
34.4% Reject (2,473)

62.0% Turnout (7,191)

Portugal:

Approve 212 (76,2%)
Reject 66 (23,8%)

In 2021 it was Boric 182 (85,4%) and Kast 31 (14,6%)

Why is the expat vote so left wing? Seems uncommon for latin America

Combination of factors but the main one is that many of them are either Pinochet's exiles or their descendants. In European countries this is turbocharged by the impression left on them by the Welfare States (especially noticeable in the Stalinist margins in the Nordics, Sweden for example came out with 88% for Approve, actually down from 94% Boric). By contrast, countries with more "Business-types" kind of immigration are way more right wing, which you can see in the Asian results. In Latin American countries Chileans behave more like the rest of the continent but countries that also received large numbers of exiles like México or Argentina also are heavily left wing

[Logical]

Spain results:

65.6% Approve (4,718)
34.4% Reject (2,473)

62.0% Turnout (7,191)

Portugal:

Approve 212 (76,2%)
Reject 66 (23,8%)

In 2021 it was Boric 182 (85,4%) and Kast 31 (14,6%)

Why is the expat vote so left wing? Seems uncommon for latin america

I can think of a few reasons, such as a 16 year long oppressive right wing military dictatorship.

[kaoras]

Spain results:

65.6% Approve (4,718)
34.4% Reject (2,473)

62.0% Turnout (7,191)

Portugal:

Approve 212 (76,2%)
Reject 66 (23,8%)

In 2021 it was Boric 182 (85,4%) and Kast 31 (14,6%)

Why is the expat vote so left wing? Seems uncommon for latin america

I can think of a few reasons, such as a 16 year long oppressive right wing military dictatorship.

To be fair, most latin American countries had that. But Pinochet was particularly fond of "exile right after the torture chamber" method.