CONGRESSIONAL RESULTS MEGA THREAD

[Xing]

It would be kind of hilarious to see Brindisi win while Shalala lost.

[2016]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1327032188181725184?s=19

I am calling this Race now for Christy Smith. There is no way that Garcias 219 Vote-lead holds up in a County where Smith has a near 5K Vote lead. Too bad for Mike!

Smart call, time to look for new employment.

Little bit of a shame as Garcia probably will be the only Republican Incumbent who loses Re-Election. The other 3 Seats Democrats picked up were Open Seats!

[KaiserDave]

It would be kind of hilarious to see Brindisi win while Shalala lost.

And amazing

[WD]

It would be kind of hilarious to see Brindisi win while Shalala lost.

The whole election is just a meme at this point.

[2016]

It would be kind of hilarious to see Brindisi win while Shalala lost.

No, it wouldn't! Salazar is a much better fit for that District not to mention that the Dems only got it in 2018 because Illena Ross-Lehtinen, who held this District for over a Decade, retired!

[GALeftist]

Bruh sound effect #2

[AncestralDemocrat.]

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1327040025482174464?s=19

[LimoLiberal]

Mike Garcia will probably still win. I doubt Smith will get 51.5% of the remaining LA County votes.

[Mr.Phips]

Also, it's a nice to see all the panic from democrats about needing some huge popular vote margin to win both the electoral college and congress is turning out to be false. The senate is another story, but it looks like congress is going to end up being pretty representative of the national popular vote.

The EC bias likely got significantly worse vs. 2016.  Biden probably needed a 4%ish PV win to take the EC if the NY absentees skew as Dem as expected.  The deciding state is Wisconsin, not Pennsylvania because Republicans have the state delegations to reelect Trump in the House in a 269/269 tie.

However, it is impressive that Dems were able to hold the House majority with the House PV this close.  That would never have been expected in 2018.  The House PV should finish around D+3 at best.

I do think 2020 portends a better long term EC/Senate situation for Dems than 2016 did.  Georgia has been highly inelastic and could very well be a "once it goes, it's gone" situation, and the EC nightmare scenario where CA is 75% Dem for 25 years seems to have been averted.  New England swinging back hard to the left and the big swings in several Plains states suggest better possibilities in the senate down the line.

If there's anywhere this hurts in the long run, it's in the House.  The 2018 suburban districts mostly didn't swing left to the point where they are safe enough to spook R legislatures into drawing vote sinks.  The majority depends on people in 2X Trump districts now.  Texas and Florida can be safely gerrymandered for the foreseeable future.

What’s to stop Republicans from apportioning Georgia’s electoral votes by Congressional district? 

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1327040025482174464?s=19

are these just all republican areas that keep reporting?

[wbrocks67]

Mike Garcia will probably still win. I doubt Smith will get 51.5% of the remaining LA County votes.

didn't she win the last batch of LA with more than that?

[lfromnj]

Mike Garcia will probably still win. I doubt Smith will get 51.5% of the remaining LA County votes.

didn't she win the last batch of LA with more than that?

Its pretty random there.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

Mike Garcia will probably still win. I doubt Smith will get 51.5% of the remaining LA County votes.

didn't she win the last batch of LA with more than that?

She won the batch with 50.92%

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1327032188181725184?s=19

I am calling this Race now for Christy Smith. There is no way that Garcias 219 Vote-lead holds up in a County where Smith has a near 5K Vote lead. Too bad for Mike!

Smart call, time to look for new employment.

Little bit of a shame as Garcia probably will be the only Republican Incumbent who loses Re-Election. The other 3 Seats Democrats picked up were Open Seats!

Yea it's pretty depressing, but we always knew it'd be close, we just hoped it'd be close our way.

[Torie]

In NY-22, to win, the Dem needs 100% of the absentees that are not Pub/Con, and 30% of the Pub/Con ballots. The Broom drop gave 37% of the Pub/Con ballots to the Dem, but Madison was a belly flop, with only 10% of the Pub ballots. Obviously the difference between the two dumps is big. Still tilt Pub, but no more than that now.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1327040025482174464?s=19

are these just all republican areas that keep reporting?

This update is from the most Republican county in the district, but even the late ballots from the Dem areas have been breaking in Kean's favor.

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1327040025482174464?s=19

are these just all republican areas that keep reporting?

It's hard to say because Malinowski's district especially is prime Biden-GOP territory. I guess it depends on how much of Millburn and Union County is still out since those are the most Democratic parts of the 7th district and more likely to vote straight ticket for Democrats.

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1327032188181725184?s=19

I am calling this Race now for Christy Smith. There is no way that Garcias 219 Vote-lead holds up in a County where Smith has a near 5K Vote lead. Too bad for Mike!

Smart call, time to look for new employment.

Little bit of a shame as Garcia probably will be the only Republican Incumbent who loses Re-Election. The other 3 Seats Democrats picked up were Open Seats!

Yea it's pretty depressing, but we always knew it'd be close, we just hoped it'd be close our way.

I always expected many of the seats we gained in 2018 but lost this year to be one-termers. The real disappointment was with not making many gains to offset those losses.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1327040025482174464?s=19

are these just all republican areas that keep reporting?

It's hard to say because Malinowski's district especially is prime Biden-GOP territory. I guess it depends on how much of Millburn and Union County is still out since those are the most Democratic parts of the 7th district and more likely to vote straight ticket for Democrats.

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1327032188181725184?s=19

I am calling this Race now for Christy Smith. There is no way that Garcias 219 Vote-lead holds up in a County where Smith has a near 5K Vote lead. Too bad for Mike!

Smart call, time to look for new employment.

Little bit of a shame as Garcia probably will be the only Republican Incumbent who loses Re-Election. The other 3 Seats Democrats picked up were Open Seats!

Yea it's pretty depressing, but we always knew it'd be close, we just hoped it'd be close our way.

I always expected many of the seats we gained in 2018 but lost this year to be one-termers. The real disappointment was with not making many gains to offset those losses.

By we I mean Garcia's campaign in this case, not democrat supporters.

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1327040025482174464?s=19

are these just all republican areas that keep reporting?

It's hard to say because Malinowski's district especially is prime Biden-GOP territory. I guess it depends on how much of Millburn and Union County is still out since those are the most Democratic parts of the 7th district and more likely to vote straight ticket for Democrats.

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1327032188181725184?s=19

I am calling this Race now for Christy Smith. There is no way that Garcias 219 Vote-lead holds up in a County where Smith has a near 5K Vote lead. Too bad for Mike!

Smart call, time to look for new employment.

Little bit of a shame as Garcia probably will be the only Republican Incumbent who loses Re-Election. The other 3 Seats Democrats picked up were Open Seats!

Yea it's pretty depressing, but we always knew it'd be close, we just hoped it'd be close our way.

I always expected many of the seats we gained in 2018 but lost this year to be one-termers. The real disappointment was with not making many gains to offset those losses.

By we I mean Garcia's campaign in this case, not democrat supporters.

Right. I guess looking at your endorsements list I should have realized that.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1327040025482174464?s=19

are these just all republican areas that keep reporting?

It's hard to say because Malinowski's district especially is prime Biden-GOP territory. I guess it depends on how much of Millburn and Union County is still out since those are the most Democratic parts of the 7th district and more likely to vote straight ticket for Democrats.

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1327032188181725184?s=19

I am calling this Race now for Christy Smith. There is no way that Garcias 219 Vote-lead holds up in a County where Smith has a near 5K Vote lead. Too bad for Mike!

Smart call, time to look for new employment.

Little bit of a shame as Garcia probably will be the only Republican Incumbent who loses Re-Election. The other 3 Seats Democrats picked up were Open Seats!

Yea it's pretty depressing, but we always knew it'd be close, we just hoped it'd be close our way.

I always expected many of the seats we gained in 2018 but lost this year to be one-termers. The real disappointment was with not making many gains to offset those losses.

By we I mean Garcia's campaign in this case, not democrat supporters.

Right. I guess looking at your endorsements list I should have realized that.

Probably man, but it's all good, just a very painful race for me to watch since my job is on the line and Mike's actually a great guy, great candidate, not so much, way too conservative.

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1327040025482174464?s=19

are these just all republican areas that keep reporting?

It's hard to say because Malinowski's district especially is prime Biden-GOP territory. I guess it depends on how much of Millburn and Union County is still out since those are the most Democratic parts of the 7th district and more likely to vote straight ticket for Democrats.

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1327032188181725184?s=19

I am calling this Race now for Christy Smith. There is no way that Garcias 219 Vote-lead holds up in a County where Smith has a near 5K Vote lead. Too bad for Mike!

Smart call, time to look for new employment.

Little bit of a shame as Garcia probably will be the only Republican Incumbent who loses Re-Election. The other 3 Seats Democrats picked up were Open Seats!

Yea it's pretty depressing, but we always knew it'd be close, we just hoped it'd be close our way.

I always expected many of the seats we gained in 2018 but lost this year to be one-termers. The real disappointment was with not making many gains to offset those losses.

By we I mean Garcia's campaign in this case, not democrat supporters.

Right. I guess looking at your endorsements list I should have realized that.

Probably man, but it's all good, just a very painful race for me to watch since my job is on the line and Mike's actually a great guy, great candidate, not so much, way too conservative.

So you're literally involved with the campaign? I see now. Well, you and him could maybe try again in 2022, it could be a good year for the GOP.

[cinyc]

If you want to see what the vote in Alaska looks like so far, here are my interactive maps:

https://cinycmaps.com/index.php/state-maps/ak/ak-2020-ge

Click on Menu to change what's mapped.

Note that, as always, only the in-person election day vote is broken down by precinct on the default map. You'll have to click on U.S. Pres-->More-->By HD to see other vote types.

I am more interested with your Alaska obsession, the one state other than ND that has not yet been graced by my presence. I can understand being obsessed with upstate NY. That place is where ghosts are most at home.

I map what other people largely ignore - Alaska, Idaho, the Dakotas, Hawaii and, due to a lack of a public shapefile, New York. Alaska fits that description very well, and unlike New York, actually has good election results data available since Statehood on the web. Even if they don't break down anything but the election day results by precinct.

Plus, unlike you, I've been to Alaska a number of times. It's a great state to visit, at least in the summer. Too cold in the winter. But you probably still like snow.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1327040025482174464?s=19

are these just all republican areas that keep reporting?

It's hard to say because Malinowski's district especially is prime Biden-GOP territory. I guess it depends on how much of Millburn and Union County is still out since those are the most Democratic parts of the 7th district and more likely to vote straight ticket for Democrats.

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1327032188181725184?s=19

I am calling this Race now for Christy Smith. There is no way that Garcias 219 Vote-lead holds up in a County where Smith has a near 5K Vote lead. Too bad for Mike!

Smart call, time to look for new employment.

Little bit of a shame as Garcia probably will be the only Republican Incumbent who loses Re-Election. The other 3 Seats Democrats picked up were Open Seats!

Yea it's pretty depressing, but we always knew it'd be close, we just hoped it'd be close our way.

I always expected many of the seats we gained in 2018 but lost this year to be one-termers. The real disappointment was with not making many gains to offset those losses.

By we I mean Garcia's campaign in this case, not democrat supporters.

Right. I guess looking at your endorsements list I should have realized that.

Probably man, but it's all good, just a very painful race for me to watch since my job is on the line and Mike's actually a great guy, great candidate, not so much, way too conservative.

So you're literally involved with the campaign? I see now. Well, you and him could maybe try again in 2022, it could be a good year for the GOP.

Yea I've been a staffer for his campaign since December. It'll be interesting next cycle, I don't know if he'd want to run again, he really, really, has hated his 6 months in congress, not the work helping constituents, but partisanship.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/wildstein/status/1327040025482174464?s=19

are these just all republican areas that keep reporting?

It's hard to say because Malinowski's district especially is prime Biden-GOP territory. I guess it depends on how much of Millburn and Union County is still out since those are the most Democratic parts of the 7th district and more likely to vote straight ticket for Democrats.

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1327032188181725184?s=19

I am calling this Race now for Christy Smith. There is no way that Garcias 219 Vote-lead holds up in a County where Smith has a near 5K Vote lead. Too bad for Mike!

Smart call, time to look for new employment.

Little bit of a shame as Garcia probably will be the only Republican Incumbent who loses Re-Election. The other 3 Seats Democrats picked up were Open Seats!

Yea it's pretty depressing, but we always knew it'd be close, we just hoped it'd be close our way.

I always expected many of the seats we gained in 2018 but lost this year to be one-termers. The real disappointment was with not making many gains to offset those losses.

By we I mean Garcia's campaign in this case, not democrat supporters.

Right. I guess looking at your endorsements list I should have realized that.

Probably man, but it's all good, just a very painful race for me to watch since my job is on the line and Mike's actually a great guy, great candidate, not so much, way too conservative.

So you're literally involved with the campaign? I see now. Well, you and him could maybe try again in 2022, it could be a good year for the GOP.

Yea I've been a staffer for his campaign since December. It'll be interesting next cycle, I don't know if he'd want to run again, he really, really, has hated his 6 months in congress, not the work helping constituents, but partisanship.

Redistricting probably screws him anyway.  Rip.

[Torie]

If you want to see what the vote in Alaska looks like so far, here are my interactive maps:

https://cinycmaps.com/index.php/state-maps/ak/ak-2020-ge

Click on Menu to change what's mapped.

Note that, as always, only the in-person election day vote is broken down by precinct on the default map. You'll have to click on U.S. Pres-->More-->By HD to see other vote types.

I am more interested with your Alaska obsession, the one state other than ND that has not yet been graced by my presence. I can understand being obsessed with upstate NY. That place is where ghosts are most at home.

I map what other people largely ignore - Alaska, Idaho, the Dakotas, Hawaii and, due to a lack of a public shapefile, New York. Alaska fits that description very well, and unlike New York, actually has good election results data available since Statehood on the web. Even if they don't break down anything but the election day results available.

Plus, unlike you, I've been to Alaska a number of times. It's a great state to visit, at least in the summer. Too cold in the winter. But you probably still like snow.

I treasure the seasons in the Hudson Valley, and enjoy them all. And this fall has been utterly glorious. I am grateful I was spared from a final exit to savor it one more time.

Keep up the good work!