CONGRESSIONAL RESULTS MEGA THREAD

[libertpaulian]

Bernie, Warren, and The Squad are to blame for House losses.  This "Medicare 4 All, Green New Deal, Defund the Police, Abolish ICE" bullsh**t cost us votes.  During my text-banking for Biden and Christina Hale, I got a LOT of these replies.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Bernie, Warren, and The Squad are to blame for House losses.  This "Medicare 4 All, Green New Deal, Defund the Police, Abolish ICE" bullsh**t cost us votes.  During my text-banking for Biden and Christina Hale, I got a LOT of these replies.

Again: your monkeys, your circus, and "I would have voted for your candidate but some other candidate said Medicare for All," is more likely to be uttered by a partisan than a genuinely persuadable voter (exit polls are janky but 70% of voters this time supported a government-run healthcare system, over 60% of Floridians voted for a minimum wage, etc.). The DJT performance this time is a strong case for Democrats needing to focus more on base activation and turnout.

In Haley Stevens' case, she's underperforming Biden and Peters not because of "defunding the police," but because of her gun control activism. If moderation is the answer, it has to come on non-kitchen table issues like these - Biden needs to stop touting the assault weapons ban.

Edit: Democrats also need to stop listening to yellow avatars on trade if they intend to win back communities rocked by unregulated globalisation.

[Hassan 2022]

https://twitter.com/AP_Politics/status/1324388060642107396

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Bernie, Warren, and The Squad are to blame for House losses.  This "Medicare 4 All, Green New Deal, Defund the Police, Abolish ICE" bullsh**t cost us votes.  During my text-banking for Biden and Christina Hale, I got a LOT of these replies.

Again: your monkeys, your circus, and "I would have voted for your candidate but some other candidate said Medicare for All," is more likely to be uttered by a partisan than a genuinely persuadable voter (exit polls are janky but 70% of voters this time supported a government-run healthcare system, over 60% of Floridians voted for a minimum wage, etc.). The DJT performance this time is a strong case for Democrats needing to focus more on base activation and turnout.

In Haley Stevens' case, she's underperforming Biden and Peters not because of "defunding the police," but because of her gun control activism. If moderation is the answer, it has to come on non-kitchen table issues like these - Biden needs to stop touting the assault weapons ban.

Edit: Democrats also need to stop listening to yellow avatars on trade if they intend to win back communities rocked by unregulated globalisation.

No, M4A is pretty unpopular.  It has come to be associated with abolishing private health insurance and while universal healthcare is popular, abolishing private health insurance is a bridge too far even for a significant number of Democrats.  And frankly, gun control is far more important than doing universal healthcare the exact way the Squad wants to.  There are plenty of ways to do universal healthcare without abolishing private health insurance.  In any case, a Democratic Party that wimps out on gun control probably isn't even worth voting for.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Bernie, Warren, and The Squad are to blame for House losses.  This "Medicare 4 All, Green New Deal, Defund the Police, Abolish ICE" bullsh**t cost us votes.  During my text-banking for Biden and Christina Hale, I got a LOT of these replies.

Again: your monkeys, your circus, and "I would have voted for your candidate but some other candidate said Medicare for All," is more likely to be uttered by a partisan than a genuinely persuadable voter (exit polls are janky but 70% of voters this time supported a government-run healthcare system, over 60% of Floridians voted for a minimum wage, etc.). The DJT performance this time is a strong case for Democrats needing to focus more on base activation and turnout.

In Haley Stevens' case, she's underperforming Biden and Peters not because of "defunding the police," but because of her gun control activism. If moderation is the answer, it has to come on non-kitchen table issues like these - Biden needs to stop touting the assault weapons ban.

Edit: Democrats also need to stop listening to yellow avatars on trade if they intend to win back communities rocked by unregulated globalisation.

No, M4A is pretty unpopular.  It has come to be associated with abolishing private health insurance and while universal healthcare is popular, abolishing private health insurance is a bridge too far even for a significant number of Democrats.

It is less popular than the public option largely because fewer Democrats defend it, but still more popular than the healthcare status quo. If you put it to a referendum, it would probably outperform Congressional Democrats like most progressive policies, because the party is a joke bleeding support for other reasons than Reagaonomics' alleged enduring popularity.

And frankly, gun control is far more important than doing universal healthcare the exact way the Squad wants to.

No, it isn't, because the extent to which it is possible to save lives via gun control without total and long-term political control is very limited. It may also be bad for a democracy in which state institutions could prove to be insufficient as checks and balances.

There are plenty of ways to do universal healthcare without abolishing private health insurance.  In any case, a Democratic Party that wimps out on gun control probably isn't even worth voting for.

Gun control turns out fewer voters than bread-and-butter issues yet irritates a distinct set of single-issue voters who would otherwise vote blue. It is a losing issue even while Democrats have a plurality behind them on it and pushing it weakens relevant political messaging on the threat of dictatorship (why are voters supposed to believe that's a risk if you're comfortable taking their means of self-defence?) and police reform.

Gun violence causes a comparatively small number of deaths per year (compared to, say, poor road maintenance or lack of health insurance) and that is including all gun violence as opposed to violence that would only happen so long as gun control wasn't in place (which is only a minority of gun violence to begin with).

[lfromnj]

The AP calls it for Haley Stevens. That's late, though, and it should be clear that gun control rhetoric should be silenced, yesterday.

If the dems stopped with Gun Control they would've flipped TX-23 and more. What're you doing attacking guns in a rural area

Tx 23 is way more urban/suburban than one thinks, more than half the vote is in Bexar+El paso.

[lfromnj]

The AP calls it for Haley Stevens. That's late, though, and it should be clear that gun control rhetoric should be silenced, yesterday.

If the dems stopped with Gun Control they would've flipped TX-23 and more. What're you doing attacking guns in a rural area

Tx 23 is way more urban/suburban than one thinks, more than half the vote is in Bexar+El paso.

Oh I'm aware, but there's many rural Hispanic gun owners there. My family is from the District, Pecos in Reeves county, it swung hard R, even though that's a mostly "urban" area. It's a small dem town. Trump got 44.5% last time and now 66.1%

Btw whats up with Brewster?
its only 44% hispanic yet its a swing county.

[Beet]

Yeah the Dems need to drop gun control as an issue. We've lost that one.

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

The AP calls it for Haley Stevens. That's late, though, and it should be clear that gun control rhetoric should be silenced, yesterday.

If the dems stopped with Gun Control they would've flipped TX-23 and more. What're you doing attacking guns in a rural area

Tx 23 is way more urban/suburban than one thinks, more than half the vote is in Bexar+El paso.

Oh I'm aware, but there's many rural Hispanic gun owners there. My family is from the District, Pecos in Reeves county, it swung hard R, even though that's a mostly "urban" area. It's a small dem town. Trump got 44.5% last time and now 66.1%

Btw whats up with Brewster?
its only 44% hispanic yet its a swing county.

Man I've got no clue, that's bizarre. You'd expect with the Hispanic swing, plus it being white Trump would've won it. Perhaps the Hispanics there have family right across the border they're worried about, maybe it has some tech place?

[Xing]

They should honestly call both WA-03 and WA-08. WA-03 isn't even going to be close, and while WA-08 could end up narrowly within 5%, Jensen isn't making up the gap.

As for the discussion of the Squad/centrist/M4A, I'll repeat my talking point: Messaging, messaging, messaging is everything.

[Xing]

They should honestly call both WA-03 and WA-08. WA-03 isn't even going to be lose, and while WA-08 could end up narrowly within 5%, Jensen isn't making up the gap.

As for the discussion of the Squad/centrist/M4A, I'll repeat my talking point: Messaging, messaging, messaging is everything.

Any idea why dems are so bad at messaging?

A few reasons.

1. Frustration: A lot of Democrats who are understandably fed up and tired at a lack of meaningful change on a number of issues want to make over-the-top slogans to try and draw attention to an issue. I think people who disagree should understand that this is a big part of where these overly simplistic proclamations come from, even if it's not a politically good strategy.

2. Lack of contact with those who aren't like-minded: It's not universally true that liberals live in a bubble, but many do, and simply don't understand how their messaging could be interpreted in a different way. Too many also push away those who criticize their messaging, even if they agree with the underlying goal.

3. Complicated ideas, simple slogans: Some ideas on the left are quite complex, and it's hard to find an accurate, succinct way of expressing those ideas. It's also hard to avoid using words that have a negative connotation in politics.

There are probably more, including the messengers themselves, but these are some big ones.

[President Johnson]

Spanberger declares victory.

YEEES! She's one of the best!

However, she's probably not hanging on in a 2022 Biden midterm, even if the president isn't that unpopular.

[lfromnj]

Spanberger declares victory.

YEEES! She's one of the best!

However, she's probably not hanging on in a 2022 Biden midterm, even if the president isn't that unpopular.

She probably might not even hang on in a(slim chance) Trump midterm depending on how redistricting goes.

[President Johnson]

Spanberger declares victory.

YEEES! She's one of the best!

However, she's probably not hanging on in a 2022 Biden midterm, even if the president isn't that unpopular.

She probably might not even hang on in a(slim chance) Trump midterm depending on how redistricting goes.

Wouldn't Democrats give her a more favorable district or at least not a tougher one? Virginia has a Democratic trifecta.

[KaiserDave]

Spanberger declares victory.

YEEES! She's one of the best!

However, she's probably not hanging on in a 2022 Biden midterm, even if the president isn't that unpopular.

She probably might not even hang on in a(slim chance) Trump midterm depending on how redistricting goes.

Wouldn't Democrats give her a more favorable district or at least not a tougher one? Virginia has a Democratic trifecta.

Yeah they could easily make her seat safe.

[Vespucci]

Spanberger declares victory.

YEEES! She's one of the best!

However, she's probably not hanging on in a 2022 Biden midterm, even if the president isn't that unpopular.

She probably might not even hang on in a(slim chance) Trump midterm depending on how redistricting goes.

Wouldn't Democrats give her a more favorable district or at least not a tougher one? Virginia has a Democratic trifecta.

Yeah they could easily make her seat safe.

Virginia just voted for an independent commission, so Democrats won't control redistricting.

[lfromnj]

Infact a dead locked commision goes to the VA supreme court



Very easy to cleanly and relatively easily take out Spanberger with a gentle courtmap. District is like Trump +15 and not really trending D anymore.

[brucejoel99]

What's up with the likes of Lauren Underwood & Susan Wild? Looking at the current margins, I'd guess mail-in ballots would probably help them, but does anybody have more insight as to whether or not they'll be saved in the end?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

What's up with the likes of Lauren Underwood & Susan Wild? Looking at the current margins, I'd guess mail-in ballots would probably help them, but does anybody have more insight as to whether or not they'll be saved in the end?

Susan Wild should be okay, but IDK about Underwood

[Hassan 2022]

Could Rita Hart still win in IA-02? She's behind by under 300 votes on NYT right now, but I'm unsure if the remaining precincts are more Democratic or Republican.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Could Rita Hart still win in IA-02? She's behind by under 300 votes on NYT right now, but I'm unsure if the remaining precincts are more Democratic or Republican.

She definitely could, but it's a tossup

[ChiefFireWaterMike]

They should honestly call both WA-03 and WA-08. WA-03 isn't even going to be lose, and while WA-08 could end up narrowly within 5%, Jensen isn't making up the gap.

As for the discussion of the Squad/centrist/M4A, I'll repeat my talking point: Messaging, messaging, messaging is everything.

Any idea why dems are so bad at messaging?

A few reasons.

1. Frustration: A lot of Democrats who are understandably fed up and tired at a lack of meaningful change on a number of issues want to make over-the-top slogans to try and draw attention to an issue. I think people who disagree should understand that this is a big part of where these overly simplistic proclamations come from, even if it's not a politically good strategy.

2. Lack of contact with those who aren't like-minded: It's not universally true that liberals live in a bubble, but many do, and simply don't understand how their messaging could be interpreted in a different way. Too many also push away those who criticize their messaging, even if they agree with the underlying goal.

3. Complicated ideas, simple slogans: Some ideas on the left are quite complex, and it's hard to find an accurate, succinct way of expressing those ideas. It's also hard to avoid using words that have a negative connotation in politics.

There are probably more, including the messengers themselves, but these are some big ones.

Well that's something certainly, I never understood their problems. Do you think that Bernie/Squad hurt a lot?

[brucejoel99]

What's up with Candace Valenzuela in TX-24? She's behind by just under 4,500 votes according to the AP right now, with 99% reporting. Any insight as to what the outstanding vote is/where it's from & how it likely factors into an end result?

[Pollster]

They should honestly call both WA-03 and WA-08. WA-03 isn't even going to be lose, and while WA-08 could end up narrowly within 5%, Jensen isn't making up the gap.

As for the discussion of the Squad/centrist/M4A, I'll repeat my talking point: Messaging, messaging, messaging is everything.

Any idea why dems are so bad at messaging?

A few reasons.

1. Frustration: A lot of Democrats who are understandably fed up and tired at a lack of meaningful change on a number of issues want to make over-the-top slogans to try and draw attention to an issue. I think people who disagree should understand that this is a big part of where these overly simplistic proclamations come from, even if it's not a politically good strategy.

2. Lack of contact with those who aren't like-minded: It's not universally true that liberals live in a bubble, but many do, and simply don't understand how their messaging could be interpreted in a different way. Too many also push away those who criticize their messaging, even if they agree with the underlying goal.

3. Complicated ideas, simple slogans: Some ideas on the left are quite complex, and it's hard to find an accurate, succinct way of expressing those ideas. It's also hard to avoid using words that have a negative connotation in politics.

There are probably more, including the messengers themselves, but these are some big ones.

Well that's something certainly, I never understood their problems. Do you think that Bernie/Squad hurt a lot?

This is a good run down, particularly number 2. Many squad-types work under the "people will like and vote for us once they hear our message" assumption and make no effort to understand their own lack of appeal where it persists, and why their message is not considered a positive one by many voters (even left-leaning ones). Katie Porter seems to have gotten a very strong handle on it.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/ericawerner/status/1324444220229341190

lol

https://twitter.com/ericawerner/status/1324439295847968768


https://twitter.com/ericawerner/status/1324442041108041728

https://twitter.com/ericawerner/status/1324442350622572544


Gonna be interesting.