2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Alben Barkley]

In the end, popular vote will be somewhere between 2008 and 2012. But electoral vote will be slightly lower than 2012 (assuming 306).

Definitely doesn’t meet the “2008 or greater” expectations many of us had, and shows how strongly the EC favors the GOP now, but I’ll take it.

[musicblind]

From 538 blog:


NATE SILVER
NOV. 5, 8:42 PM
This is interesting. The Democratic Senate candidate in Alaska, Al Gross, is claiming he’ll win once all ballots are counted. (He currently trails by 31 points.) I’m not sure I buy that but … if no mail votes have been counted in Alaska yet, the results we do have so far could be significantly more friendly to Republicans than the final result. If so, that would presumably also affect the race for the presidency (where Biden trails by a similar margin to Gross) and the House (where Alyse Galvin is running a little better than Biden or Gross). It’s a long shot, but you might not want to totally sleep on this race.

Is Natey boy a lurker here?

Huh, there is this user on here with the name of FiveyFox...

Years ago, back when he was still with 538, there was an occasional poster here who I suspected might be Harry Enten based on his writing style.

I'm about to say something controversial here, but Harry Enten is hot.

[Catholics vs. Convicts]

You know it must really humiliating for Martha McSally to watch Arizona rapidly narrowing and she’s still definitively done.

More humiliating than her "60 seconds" last week?

[Bootes Void]

Down to 50,000 in PA.

and these are all without any Philly/Allegheny

How many in Philly?

72,470

Philly alone might give Biden the presidency without even looking at other counties, provisionals, military or other smaller ballots

[GP270watch]

https://twitter.com/djquinlan/status/1324530638381150208


 Don't know credible or accurate this guy is but he's characterizing the drop of votes before they release and what to expect.

[Inmate Trump]

From 538 blog:


NATE SILVER
NOV. 5, 8:42 PM
This is interesting. The Democratic Senate candidate in Alaska, Al Gross, is claiming he’ll win once all ballots are counted. (He currently trails by 31 points.) I’m not sure I buy that but … if no mail votes have been counted in Alaska yet, the results we do have so far could be significantly more friendly to Republicans than the final result. If so, that would presumably also affect the race for the presidency (where Biden trails by a similar margin to Gross) and the House (where Alyse Galvin is running a little better than Biden or Gross). It’s a long shot, but you might not want to totally sleep on this race.

Is Natey boy a lurker here?

Huh, there is this user on here with the name of FiveyFox...

Years ago, back when he was still with 538, there was an occasional poster here who I suspected might be Harry Enten based on his writing style.

I'm about to say something controversial here, but Harry Enten is hot.

I don’t find that controversial.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Update from PA.

WI - Biden WINS by > 20,000 (98% counted)

MI - Biden WINS by > 100,000 (98% counted)

AZ - Biden up by 56,833 (88% counted)

Of the remaining ~398,500 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 171,000 of them - (43.0%)

NV - Biden up by 11,438 (89% counted)

Of the remaining ~151,000 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 70,000 of them - (46.2%)

GA - Biden down by 3,486 (99% counted)

Of the remaining ~30,000 votes to be counted, Biden only needs to win 16,743 of them - (55.8%)

PA - Biden down by 50,571 (94% counted)

Of the remaining ~375,500 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win ~213,100 of them - (56.7%)

The ratios of late votes coming in are roughly:

AZ (Trump : Biden =  55.0%)
NV (Biden : Trump =  57.0%)
GA (Biden : Trump =  62.0%)
PA (Biden : Trump =  75.0%)

The last two clumps of PA votes just in were in Biden's favour 76%-24% and 68-32%, so the late PA vote estimate is reasonable.

Biden is chiseling the 50K lead (Trump currently has) 5K votes at a time.

The situation continues to detoriate for Trump.
I have the feeling that when NV drops, Trump's hopes will be in for a world of hurt.

[Ferguson97]

Trump down to 2.5k in GA

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1324531159758446596?s=20

[EJ24]

Biden just knocked almost 3k off of Trump's PA lead with mail from a county Trump is winning 63-35 (Mercer).

[Alben Barkley]

Down to 50,000 in PA.

and these are all without any Philly/Allegheny

How many in Philly?

72,470

Philly alone might give Biden the presidency without even looking at other counties, provisionals, military or other smaller ballots

Am I going to have to become a f—king Eagles fan after this???

[Thunder98]

Trump is now only ahead by 2,497 votes in GA

[New York En Marche!]

https://twitter.com/Emma_Hurt/status/1324532139182927872

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I'm on the edge of my seat.

[Skill and Chance]

Trump is now only ahead by 2,497 votes in GA

Do we know where these latest ballots came from?

[Oswald Acted Alone, You Kook]

Arizona dump?

[Bootes Void]

this hasnt been discussed much but how much vote is left is there in NC

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

Holy hell, Trump is getting absolutely destroyed in Delaware county, PA.

Not really, it didn't change much from 2016.

A little bit... Clinton +22 in 2016 and Biden +25 right now with about 10K still out I think.

There was supposed to be blue tsunami in college educated suburban counties, this is only a minor swing which is concerning.

[Fargobison]

PA is beginning to look a lot like Michigan.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

this hasnt been discussed much but how much vote is left is there in NC

A ton of mostly Dem-leaning absentees iirc.

[The Free North]

Its been fairly obvious for a day now that Biden will win PA and GA, only question is AZ at this point. Still think Reps win the seante runoffs in a breeze.

[Bootes Void]

this hasnt been discussed much but how much vote is left is there in NC

A ton of mostly Dem-leaning absentees iirc.

can Biden pull it off here?seems unlikely but no network has called it

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Holy hell, Trump is getting absolutely destroyed in Delaware county, PA.

Not really, it didn't change much from 2016.

A little bit... Clinton +22 in 2016 and Biden +25 right now with about 10K still out I think.

There was supposed to be blue tsunami in college educated counties, this is only a minor swing which is concerning.

Ah, look at the neighboring over to the west -- ChesCo experienced a seven point swing to the left from 2016.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1324532529811083264

[͘]

I'm ready for the big dump.

[n1240]

New Maricopa batch

Biden 31700
Trump 42276

About 57/43 margin, bit weaker than what Trump would need to win (60% or so) statewide.