2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Horus]

So Trump still favored but Wisconsin gives Biden a fighting chance is what I'm gathering?

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Wisconsin looks almost done and I am too.

Gn homies. Was fun spending the night with y'all

Sleep well!

[Calthrina950]

So Trump still favored but Wisconsin gives Biden a fighting chance is what I'm gathering?

No. On here, it seems that the consensus is that Biden has been, and remains favored.  I personally think Biden will win Wisconsin by a Kerry or Gore-esque margin at this point.

[soundchaser]

So Trump still favored but Wisconsin gives Biden a fighting chance is what I'm gathering?

I’d say Biden’s very slightly favored at this point given what’s outstanding in MI.

[Splash]

What are the chances of a Trump win now?

Hard to say, but less than 50% if you trust the New York Times saying Biden is currently favoured in Georgia.

The fact almost all of Michigan's outstanding vote is in the Detroit metro really lowers Trump's probability in my mind

Also worth underscoring the fact that it's going to be hugely Democratic. Right now, Biden seems to be underperforming Clinton in Wayne county. Does anyone really believe that's going to be what we end up with? Nah. Biden's underperformance is a reflection of the fact that so many of his votes are so disproportionately locked up in the mail-in ballots. When all is said and done, the outstanding vote there is going to be a Biden tidal wave. I think we can expect the same dynamic in quite a few of these places where Biden seems to be underperforming.

Biden is doing really bad in Genesee county Michigan which is almost all in and basically a mini version of Wayne with a smaller Detroit.

I have already mentioned that the county hasn't reported any absentee ballots for the HD located entirely within the city of Flint. Also, if you go on the Genesee Co. Clerk's website, you will find that their vote totals match the NYTs but they are only showing 71% of precincts reporting, not 96%

https://www.gc4me.com/departments/county_clerks1/docs/Elections/202011/Cumulative%20Results-11-4-2020%2003-51-12%20AM.pdf

[pppolitics]

Morning, all.  

Fell asleep on the couch and was just woken up by my roommate -- up early to study for a clinical -- thinking aloud that Arizona better not "(expletive) us in the (expletive)".

I...guess it's nice she's paying attention?

PQG, there is a chance you could get what you wanted: Biden with a Republican senate.

Is PR statehood out of the question?

I wonder what excuse McConnell could come up with.

"Brown people speaking Spanish doesn't deserve representation".

[lfromnj]

What are the chances of a Trump win now?

Hard to say, but less than 50% if you trust the New York Times saying Biden is currently favoured in Georgia.

The fact almost all of Michigan's outstanding vote is in the Detroit metro really lowers Trump's probability in my mind

Also worth underscoring the fact that it's going to be hugely Democratic. Right now, Biden seems to be underperforming Clinton in Wayne county. Does anyone really believe that's going to be what we end up with? Nah. Biden's underperformance is a reflection of the fact that so many of his votes are so disproportionately locked up in the mail-in ballots. When all is said and done, the outstanding vote there is going to be a Biden tidal wave. I think we can expect the same dynamic in quite a few of these places where Biden seems to be underperforming.

Biden is doing really bad in Genesee county Michigan which is almost all in and basically a mini version of Wayne with a smaller Detroit.

I have already mentioned that the county hasn't reported any absentee ballots for the HD located entirely within the city of Flint. Also, if you go on the Genesee Co. Clerk's website, you will find that their vote totals match the NYTs but they are only showing 71% of precincts reporting, not 96%

https://www.gc4me.com/departments/county_clerks1/docs/Elections/202011/Cumulative%20Results-11-4-2020%2003-51-12%20AM.pdf

Thanks was curious about that, should have checked better, just found it a crazy swing.

[Tender Branson]

Even if Biden wins WI and MI, it seems PA and NV are lost causes.

There are also not enough votes left for him in GA or NC, right ?

[Zache]

I went to bed at 11AM, all but assuming Trump was going to win. Literally went through the five stages of grief.

Waking up to a early morning break towards Biden with narrow margins is something else. This election night seemed designed to stress as many people as possible regardless of party affiliation. I don't see how you all-nighter folk could do it.

[Storr]

So Trump still favored but Wisconsin gives Biden a fighting chance is what I'm gathering?

Assuming AZ, NV, and Wisconsin stick with their current Biden leads, he needs only one other state. Trump would have to win all three of Michigan, Georgia, and Pennsylvania (assuming NC goes for him). Michigan would be the most likely to go for Biden based on what is left there.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

MKE still has over 20% of votes left! I think that this is it. Biden flips WI.

Thank you Arch! And thank you to your fellow Wisconsin Democrats!

[Badger]

Good morning. Well, that was a refreshing slightly less than 4 hours sleep. I started following again just before the Milwaukee vote dump. Based on the results in Wisconsin I am now officially, the first time all night, upgrading myself to cautiously optimistic.

Complete b**** about the Senate, though. Do I understand that not only will Collins hang-on but John James is actually going to win?? Is this actually going to be a 0 seat pickup night for the Democrats?!?

[Storr]

Morning, all.  

Fell asleep on the couch and was just woken up by my roommate -- up early to study for a clinical -- thinking aloud that Arizona better not "(expletive) us in the (expletive)".

I...guess it's nice she's paying attention?

PQG, there is a chance you could get what you wanted: Biden with a Republican senate.

Is PR statehood out of the question?

I wonder what excuse McConnell could come up with.

"Brown people speaking Spanish doesn't representation".

He called DC and PR statehood "full bore socialism" so I guess he'd stick with that.

[Alben Barkley]

So Trump still favored but Wisconsin gives Biden a fighting chance is what I'm gathering?

Biden is obviously favored. He can easily do what he just did in Wisconsin in Michigan, needs less than 60% of remaining mail votes. And he may be able to do it in GA too. Never mind PA. Trump needs to sweep them all and the odds of that are not good given the math.

Again, being able to do basic math has its advantages over relying on your feelings for everything.

[Tarrin Kael]

Morning, all.  

Fell asleep on the couch and was just woken up by my roommate -- up early to study for a clinical -- thinking aloud that Arizona better not "(expletive) us in the (expletive)".

I...guess it's nice she's paying attention?

PQG, there is a chance you could get what you wanted: Biden with a Republican senate.

Is PR statehood out of the question?

I wonder what excuse McConnell could come up with.

"Brown people speaking Spanish doesn't representation".

He doesn't need an excuse. He could say what you suggested, or could literally just say that Republicans would lose the senate more often if PR was admitted. Either way, it doesn't matter.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

I don't know about y'all, but Fivey Fox has some explaining to do.  

[Alben Barkley]

Even if Biden wins WI and MI, it seems PA and NV are lost causes.

There are also not enough votes left for him in GA or NC, right ?

Literally none of these things are true, except maybe NC. But we don’t know how many votes will come in late there.

[President Johnson]

Even if Biden wins WI and MI, it seems PA and NV are lost causes.

As I see it, Clark County in Nevada has only 75% counted, while most rurals are almost done. I'd be surprised if it goes to Trump. But the underperformance among Hispanics needs closer examination in the months to come, even if Joe pulls it out. It's definitely not satisfying.

Pennsylvania has still over a million ballots to be counted. Also, if Wisconsin goes blue, Michigan or Georgia would be enough to get Uncle Joe over the finishline.

[Splash]

https://twitter.com/TimAlberta/status/1323927266808762369

[Horus]

So Trump still favored but Wisconsin gives Biden a fighting chance is what I'm gathering?

Biden is obviously favored. He can easily do what he just did in Wisconsin in Michigan, needs less than 60% of remaining mail votes. And he may be able to do it in GA too. Never mind PA. Trump needs to sweep them all and the odds of that are not good given the math.

Again, being able to do basic math has its advantages over relying on your feelings for everything.

You are conveniently ignoring Nevada.

[politics_king]

Even if Biden wins WI and MI, it seems PA and NV are lost causes.

There are also not enough votes left for him in GA or NC, right ?

Nevada will go to Biden, Georgia's remaining votes is in the Atlanta area which is heavily Democrat. North Carolina, I'm not sure but the margin is 70k votes. But if Biden gets Wisconsin & Michigan, it's over.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

LOL

Trump is probably going to lose, but no court packing, no left agenda, no nothing.

[Splash]

...and Saginaw County flipped to Biden.

[pppolitics]

What's the chance that PA fails to flip and the country's newest battleground state, AZ, comes to save the day?

[Hope For A New Era]

So Trump still favored but Wisconsin gives Biden a fighting chance is what I'm gathering?

Biden is obviously favored. He can easily do what he just did in Wisconsin in Michigan, needs less than 60% of remaining mail votes. And he may be able to do it in GA too. Never mind PA. Trump needs to sweep them all and the odds of that are not good given the math.

Again, being able to do basic math has its advantages over relying on your feelings for everything.

Not a lot of basic math from you when polls closed in KY