2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Dr. Arch]

MKE still has over 20% of votes left! I think that this is it. Biden flips WI.

[soundchaser]

I really hope Biden can pull that margin slightly ahead of 1% so Trump can’t request a recount, but a lead is a lead is a lead.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Morning all. My bed has a massive purple wine stain from when I must have spilled a glass after falling asleep, even though I remember nothing.

So the story is that Biden narrowly wins due to mail ballots but Rs fairly comfortably retain the Senate?

[Xing]

If Wisconsin holds, which given that I imagine there are a few mail ballots here and there left out, it’s probably more likely than not, then Biden probably narrowly wins, as long as he can take one more state (I actually think he still has a good chance in Michigan.) While I’m not as surprised by the closeness of this race as I was in 2016, I do have to say, this country is not well. The fact that this race is so close makes me very pessimistic about the future.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

BIDEN PULLS AHEAD IN WI THANK YOU MILWAUKEE

God Bless the People of Wisconsin! Free cheese for everyone!

[Angasboy15]

MKE still has over 20% of votes left! I think that this is it. Biden flips WI.

I had the impression all MKE was getting uploaded at once, but it says like you say on CNN? Can you confirm this?

EDIT: Maybe in person MKE, which would still favor Biden quite comfortably.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

What are the chances of a Trump win now?

Hard to say, but less than 50% if you trust the New York Times saying Biden is currently favoured in Georgia.

The fact almost all of Michigan's outstanding vote is in the Detroit metro really lowers Trump's probability in my mind

Also worth underscoring the fact that it's going to be hugely Democratic. Right now, Biden seems to be underperforming Clinton in Wayne county. Does anyone really believe that's going to be what we end up with? Nah. Biden's underperformance is a reflection of the fact that so many of his votes are so disproportionately locked up in the mail-in ballots. When all is said and done, the outstanding vote there is going to be a Biden tidal wave. I think we can expect the same dynamic in quite a few of these places where Biden seems to be underperforming.

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

My ex lives in Milwaukee....maybe I should call up her now haha

[American2020]

Thanks the Milwaukee Bucks and Giannis.

[MillennialModerate]

How come everyone is excited about Wisconsin?

Isn’t there way more outstanding GOP vote?

[President Johnson]

If everything other than North Carolina goes Biden's way, it will actually be 306-232 all over again, in reverse. Praise said poster(s) who asked this in last few days. One of them was jfern, I guess. I'd give him credit, but let's not take it for granted. Uncle Joe still has one more state to flip to take 270.

[Meclazine for Israel]

WI - Biden up! Before this, Biden was making the 58.5% ratio of required votes easily on what was required.

MI looking good.

WI - Biden up by 11,381 (89% counted)

Of the remaining 387,140 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 187,879 of them. (48.5%)

MI - Biden down by 232,977 (76% counted)

Of the remaining 1,336,451 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 786,132 of them. (58.8%)

GA - Biden down by 102,134 (92% counted)

Of the remaining 406,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 254,000 of them. (62.6%)

PA - Biden down by 677,988 (74% counted)

Of the remaining 1,850,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 1,257,000 of them. (67.8%)

Biden needs to win 2 of the above 4 scenarios to win. One more state in addition to WI, and that is the ballgame folks.

[Alben Barkley]

How come everyone is excited about Wisconsin?

Isn’t there way more outstanding GOP vote?

No. All that’s left is mail vote. It’s over. “PERIOD.”

[Dr. Arch]

MKE still has over 20% of votes left! I think that this is it. Biden flips WI.

I had the impression all MKE was getting uploaded at once, but it says like you say on CNN? Can you confirm this?

EDIT: Maybe in person MKE, which would still favor Biden quite comfortably.

Correct. This is an Evers-style victory, most likely.

[Splash]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1323924538665668609

[forsythvoter]

Almost everything is in now. I'm not even sure 30K votes total remain and Biden leads by about 20K. Remaining votes also lean D, so hard to see how Trump cuts let alone eliminates the deficit.

How come everyone is excited about Wisconsin?

Isn’t there way more outstanding GOP vote?

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

How come everyone is excited about Wisconsin?

Isn’t there way more outstanding GOP vote?

My read is that while the outstanding vote is mostly in overall Republican counties, the composition of the mail-in vote in those counties will still favor Biden.

[lfromnj]

What are the chances of a Trump win now?

Hard to say, but less than 50% if you trust the New York Times saying Biden is currently favoured in Georgia.

The fact almost all of Michigan's outstanding vote is in the Detroit metro really lowers Trump's probability in my mind

Also worth underscoring the fact that it's going to be hugely Democratic. Right now, Biden seems to be underperforming Clinton in Wayne county. Does anyone really believe that's going to be what we end up with? Nah. Biden's underperformance is a reflection of the fact that so many of his votes are so disproportionately locked up in the mail-in ballots. When all is said and done, the outstanding vote there is going to be a Biden tidal wave. I think we can expect the same dynamic in quite a few of these places where Biden seems to be underperforming.

Biden is doing really bad in Genesee county Michigan which is almost all in and basically a mini version of Wayne with a smaller Detroit.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

How come everyone is excited about Wisconsin?

Isn’t there way more outstanding GOP vote?

Have you any evidence of that? i.e. a lot more outstanding likely Republican ballots vs likely Dem ones?

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

Morning, all.  

Fell asleep on the couch and was just woken up by my roommate -- up early to study for a clinical -- thinking aloud that Arizona better not "(expletive) us in the (expletive)".

I...guess it's nice she's paying attention?

[NOVA Green]

I’ve seen enough: Biden wins WI.

Then just one more of MI, GA, PA will do it. PA will take the longest to count and may be the least likely for Biden to win. But we may not need it after all.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

The PredictIt odds for Trump to win WI remained unchanged at 60%. Maybe PredictIt isn't that useful.

[FrancoAgo]

Prediction 284-254 for Trump

[President Johnson]

Morning, all.  

Fell asleep on the couch and was just woken up by my roommate -- up early to study for a clinical -- thinking aloud that Arizona better not "(expletive) us in the (expletive)".

I...guess it's nice she's paying attention?

PQG, there is a chance you could get what you wanted: Biden with a Republican senate.

[super6646]

Wisconsin looks almost done and I am too.

Gn homies. Was fun spending the night with y'all