2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[lfromnj]

Livingston County (exurban Detroit) went from Trump +29 to Trump +18.

It's just hard to envision Trump winning Michigan unless Detroit punches below its weight.

Its now Trump +22

Is no one else noticing the fact that 95% is in Gennesee county and Trump is winning it!? This was a double digit Clinton county and it was 62% obama!

[Skill and Chance]

Any idea what the national popular vote ends up as?

IDK but Biden's CA margin is actually declining over time, so it may not be particularly impressive.

[Clarko95 📚💰📈]

Good morning! I see the nightmare continues

[pppolitics]

Just a very weird and disappointing election overall. Biden seemingly doing worse than Clinton in many working-class areas ranging from Youngstown to the Rio Grande Valley despite an admirable recovery in the Iron Range and New England. Even the denser white working class suburbs which I had thought were more winnable (Macomb, Long Island, Staten Island) have swung massively towards Trump with him currently leading in Nassau. Blue Dog Democrats like Bullock, Peterson, Torres-Small lost their races. A Democratic Senate looks increasingly unlikely and its clear that the dominant narrative will be that Trump defied the polls yet again even if Biden pulls through on the outstanding absentee ballots in the Rust Belt trio. Any semblance of moral victory against Trumpism or of a decisive electoral defeat for the GOP has been lost. At best, Biden will preside over a replay of Obama's second term with all the potential for midterm disaster and a rerun of Trumpism in 2024 that it entails.

I hate saying this, but I actually want Trump to win at this point. A Biden Presidency with a Republican Senate and an underwhelming electoral mandate would usher in a revival of Trumpism in 2024-with a banner carried by a more electorally formidable and "relatable" Republican candidate such as Hawley or DeSantis. Trump winning this year would give Democrats a fighting chance at a decent midterm in 2022 and the White House in 2024.

Just no. Another four years of Trump will be absolutely horrible, give us a 7-2 supreme court, more relentless attacks on democratic institutions and lead to absolute apathy amongst democratic voters, especially after this election result.

It's a choice between two evils for many. Biden's agenda will be blocked by McConnell, and Republicans would be poised to regain control of the House in 2022, ridding off anti-Biden backlash. Recent political history shows us that such an outcome is very possible.

I don't think there will be an anti-Biden backlash, with Biden not being able to pass anything in the first place.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

As regards Pennsylvania, I think Biden will also make it. Again, look at the swings in the counties where almost all of the vote has been reported.

A 7-point swing in Pike.
A 4-point swing in Lackawanna.
A 5-point swing in Wayne.
A 4-point swing in York.
A 5-point swing in Dauphin.

Just a 1-point swing needed in PA, folks, and so many ballots pending in Philly, the suburbs, Allegheny and Eire. Barring a disaster in those counties (and, judging by Biden's performance in the suburbs elsewhere, I doubt it), he's taking PA.

Right...in evaluatiing these states with a big early vs. election day split, we essentially need to entirely ignore the statewide vote count and just look at the places where the vote has been completed.  And in every midwestern state, these numbers look pretty good for Biden (though not as good as we would have liked at the beginning of the night).

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Any idea what the national popular vote ends up as?

3 points or maybe a bit more.

[It's Perro Sanxe wot won it]

One thing that has really caught my attention is how strongly Trump is performing in the popular vote. When the dust has settled, he’s likely to have received at least 10 million more votes than in 2016 and he is almost guaranteed to have increased his vote share, which runs contrary to the assumption that he was failing to expand his base.

[BlueSwan]

Any idea what the national popular vote ends up as?

Not really, but Biden is winning the NPV big. I would suspect by around 5-6 million votes. Still much less than the polls indicated, but still horrendous if you can lose the election when you win the popular vote by that much. America is becoming a minority rule country.

[It’s so Joever]

Livingston County (exurban Detroit) went from Trump +29 to Trump +18.

It's just hard to envision Trump winning Michigan unless Detroit punches below its weight.

Its now Trump +22

Is no one else noticing the fact that 95% is in Gennesee county and Trump is winning it!?

Lead poisoning is known to affect brain function.

[Pericles]

A 50-50 Senate at least isn't entirely impossible, if Democrats have a lot of good luck.

[American2020]

Are you really so confident about Biden's chances ?

[Adam Griffin]

Thank you, Southron Appalachian Whites! Very Cool!

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Just a very weird and disappointing election overall. Biden seemingly doing worse than Clinton in many working-class areas ranging from Youngstown to the Rio Grande Valley despite an admirable recovery in the Iron Range and New England. Even the denser white working class suburbs which I had thought were more winnable (Macomb, Long Island, Staten Island) have swung massively towards Trump with him currently leading in Nassau. Blue Dog Democrats like Bullock, Peterson, Torres-Small lost their races. A Democratic Senate looks increasingly unlikely and its clear that the dominant narrative will be that Trump defied the polls yet again even if Biden pulls through on the outstanding absentee ballots in the Rust Belt trio. Any semblance of moral victory against Trumpism or of a decisive electoral defeat for the GOP has been lost. At best, Biden will preside over a replay of Obama's second term with all the potential for midterm disaster and a rerun of Trumpism in 2024 that it entails.

I hate saying this, but I actually want Trump to win at this point. A Biden Presidency with a Republican Senate and an underwhelming electoral mandate would usher in a revival of Trumpism in 2024-with a banner carried by a more electorally formidable and "relatable" Republican candidate such as Hawley or DeSantis. Trump winning this year would give Democrats a fighting chance at a decent midterm in 2022 and the White House in 2024.

Just no. Another four years of Trump will be absolutely horrible, give us a 7-2 supreme court, more relentless attacks on democratic institutions and lead to absolute apathy amongst democratic voters, especially after this election result.

It's a choice between two evils for many. Biden's agenda will be blocked by McConnell, and Republicans would be poised to regain control of the House in 2022, ridding off anti-Biden backlash. Recent political history shows us that such an outcome is very possible.

I don't think there will be an anti-Biden backlash, with Biden not being able to pass anything in the first place.

Biden could still do a lot with the powers of the executive. Yes, a hack Supreme Court could block it, but at that point the court process could take months or even years. A President Biden could wipe away student debt for millions just by giving an order to his Education Secretary.

[Gren]

I think Biden will win Wisconsin. Why are people not looking at the swings in the counties that are almost 100% reporting?

Dane has a 6-point swing towards the Democrats.
Ozaukee has a 7-point swing towards the Democrats.
Waukesha has a 6-point swing towards the Democrats, and I would expect it to become a little bit larger  because there's a chunk of uncounted absentee vote.
Eau Claire has a 3-point swing towards the Democrats.
Racine has a 1-point swing towards the Democrats.
St Croix has a 2-point swing towards the Democrats.

Up north, Douglas has a 2-point swing, Bayfield a 5-point swing, Ashland is staying pretty much the same.

I appreciate that the swings are mixed elsewhere in the state, but the aforementioned counties put together have a large population. Wisconsin only needs a swing of less than 1 percent to flip.

If Biden doesn't underperform horribly in Milwaukee and Kenosha, I think he's winning.

The rural counties are providing larger vote margins than last time, which is the counterbalance to the suburban swing to Biden.

Even in the rural areas, the picture is extremely mixed. Not at all ideal for Trump. Also, I'm guessing a 2-point swing towards Trump in Taylor county doesn't offset a 6-point swing in Waukesha for Biden.

[Meclazine for Israel]

WI and MI are now Biden's clear path to 272, even without GA or PA. But Biden needs some big clumps of votes to come his way to win GA and PA at this late stage.

WI - Biden down by 107,000 (84% counted)

Of the remaining 563,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 335,000 of them. (59.5%)

MI - Biden down by 232,977 (76% counted)

Of the remaining 1,334,784 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 783,880 of them. (58.7%)

GA - Biden down by 102,134 (92% counted)

Of the remaining 406,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 254,000 of them. (62.6%)

PA - Biden down by 677,988 (74% counted)

Of the remaining 1,850,000 votes to be counted, Biden needs to win 1,257,000 of them. (67.8%)

Biden needs to win 2 of the above 4 scenarios to win.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Thank you, Southron Appalachian Whites! Very Cool!

Swing map from '16?

[BlueSwan]

Just a very weird and disappointing election overall. Biden seemingly doing worse than Clinton in many working-class areas ranging from Youngstown to the Rio Grande Valley despite an admirable recovery in the Iron Range and New England. Even the denser white working class suburbs which I had thought were more winnable (Macomb, Long Island, Staten Island) have swung massively towards Trump with him currently leading in Nassau. Blue Dog Democrats like Bullock, Peterson, Torres-Small lost their races. A Democratic Senate looks increasingly unlikely and its clear that the dominant narrative will be that Trump defied the polls yet again even if Biden pulls through on the outstanding absentee ballots in the Rust Belt trio. Any semblance of moral victory against Trumpism or of a decisive electoral defeat for the GOP has been lost. At best, Biden will preside over a replay of Obama's second term with all the potential for midterm disaster and a rerun of Trumpism in 2024 that it entails.

I hate saying this, but I actually want Trump to win at this point. A Biden Presidency with a Republican Senate and an underwhelming electoral mandate would usher in a revival of Trumpism in 2024-with a banner carried by a more electorally formidable and "relatable" Republican candidate such as Hawley or DeSantis. Trump winning this year would give Democrats a fighting chance at a decent midterm in 2022 and the White House in 2024.

Just no. Another four years of Trump will be absolutely horrible, give us a 7-2 supreme court, more relentless attacks on democratic institutions and lead to absolute apathy amongst democratic voters, especially after this election result.

It's a choice between two evils for many. Biden's agenda will be blocked by McConnell, and Republicans would be poised to regain control of the House in 2022, ridding off anti-Biden backlash. Recent political history shows us that such an outcome is very possible.

Remember that IF Trump loses, we don't know what state the republican party will be in. They could be deeply split between those who wants more Trump and those who cannot get away from Trumpism fast enough. I have been anticipating that struggle and it is devastating to see that Trumpism may have prevailed in this election.

[It’s so Joever]

Thank you, Southron Appalachian Whites! Very Cool!

Racial depolarization is real.

[H. Ross Peron]

Ironically, if Biden wins it would be a reversal of 2016 in terms of swings. Trump's 2016 swings were highly efficient and swung the crucial Rust Belt/Midwestern states that allowed him to win the Electoral College, while Hillary's shifts in suburbia mostly simply increased her margins in Blue States or narrowed them in red Sunbelt states without quite flipping them. Meanwhile Biden's shifts will this time will be enough to flip the Rust Belt trio and Arizona while Trump's shifts mostly simply boosted his numbers in lean GOP states.

[BlueSwan]

One thing that has really caught my attention is how strongly Trump is performing in the popular vote. When the dust has settled, he’s likely to have received at least 10 million more votes than in 2016 and he is almost guaranteed to have increased his vote share, which runs contrary to the assumption that he was failing to expand his base.

Yeah, it frankly seems insane. Who the hell are these millions of people who didn't vote for Trump in 2016 but now suddenly love him. It really makes no sense at all.

[Inmate Trump]

As regards Pennsylvania, I think Biden will also make it. Again, look at the swings in the counties where almost all of the vote has been reported.

A 7-point swing in Pike.
A 4-point swing in Lackawanna.
A 5-point swing in Wayne.
A 4-point swing in York.
A 5-point swing in Dauphin.

Just a 1-point swing needed in PA, folks, and so many ballots pending in Philly, the suburbs, Allegheny and Eire. Barring a disaster in those counties (and, judging by Biden's performance in the suburbs elsewhere, I doubt it), he's taking PA.

Right...in evaluatiing these states with a big early vs. election day split, we essentially need to entirely ignore the statewide vote count and just look at the places where the vote has been completed.  And in every midwestern state, these numbers look pretty good for Biden (though not as good as we would have liked at the beginning of the night).

Okay, but then Trump challenges the results and it goes to the Supreme Court.  Then what?

[politics_king]

As regards Pennsylvania, I think Biden will also make it. Again, look at the swings in the counties where almost all of the vote has been reported.

A 7-point swing in Pike.
A 4-point swing in Lackawanna.
A 5-point swing in Wayne.
A 4-point swing in York.
A 5-point swing in Dauphin.

Just a 1-point swing needed in PA, folks, and so many ballots pending in Philly, the suburbs, Allegheny and Eire. Barring a disaster in those counties (and, judging by Biden's performance in the suburbs elsewhere, I doubt it), he's taking PA.

Right...in evaluatiing these states with a big early vs. election day split, we essentially need to entirely ignore the statewide vote count and just look at the places where the vote has been completed.  And in every midwestern state, these numbers look pretty good for Biden (though not as good as we would have liked at the beginning of the night).

Okay, but then Trump challenges the results and it goes to the Supreme Court.  Then what?

Hopefully some of these states will fix their issues on how they count these votes. It shouldn't take this long.

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

As regards Pennsylvania, I think Biden will also make it. Again, look at the swings in the counties where almost all of the vote has been reported.

A 7-point swing in Pike.
A 4-point swing in Lackawanna.
A 5-point swing in Wayne.
A 4-point swing in York.
A 5-point swing in Dauphin.

Just a 1-point swing needed in PA, folks, and so many ballots pending in Philly, the suburbs, Allegheny and Eire. Barring a disaster in those counties (and, judging by Biden's performance in the suburbs elsewhere, I doubt it), he's taking PA.

Right...in evaluatiing these states with a big early vs. election day split, we essentially need to entirely ignore the statewide vote count and just look at the places where the vote has been completed.  And in every midwestern state, these numbers look pretty good for Biden (though not as good as we would have liked at the beginning of the night).

Okay, but then Trump challenges the results and it goes to the Supreme Court.  Then what?

At that point, Civil War wouldn’t be out of the question if they ruled in his favor. This issue isn’t justiciable by any standard.

[Storr]

Thank you, Southron Appalachian Whites! Very Cool!

Racial depolarization is real.

That map makes my brain hurt. Also Trump below 52% in Michigan with still only 43% of Wayne County reporting...I'm really hecking exhausted, good night fellow atlasians. (Or should I say fellow Talk Electionsites?)

[Panda Express]

Anyone know how ME-02 is doing? Biden's up to 12 statewide in Maine now