2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Alben Barkley]

I think Biden will win Wisconsin. Why are people not looking at the swings in the counties that are almost 100% reporting?

Dane has a 6-point swing towards the Democrats.
Ozaukee has a 7-point swing towards the Democrats.
Waukesha has a 6-point swing towards the Democrats, and I would expect it to become a little bit larger  because there's a chunk of uncounted absentee vote.
Eau Claire has a 3-point swing towards the Democrats.
Racine has a 1-point swing towards the Democrats.
St Croix has a 2-point swing towards the Democrats.

Up north, Douglas has a 2-point swing, Bayfield a 5-point swing, Ashland is staying pretty much the same.

I appreciate that the swings are mixed elsewhere in the state, but the aforementioned counties have a large population. Wisconsin only needs a swing of less than 1 percent to flip.

If Biden doesn't underperform horribly in Milwaukee and Kenosha, I think he's winning.

I think you’re right. And I also think Biden will win at least one of MI, PA, or GA. That will do it.

You know, I have to admire your determination. Biden is almost certain to lose yet you're still holding out hope.

No, I just know how to do basic math.

[BlueSwan]

Obama made a huge mistake by not pushing for DC statehood when he had the trifecta.

In retrospect he made a LOT of mistakes when he had not only a trifecta, but briefly a supermajority.

[H. Ross Peron]

Just a very weird and disappointing election overall. Biden seemingly doing worse than Clinton in many working-class areas ranging from Youngstown to the Rio Grande Valley despite an admirable recovery in the Iron Range and New England. Even the denser white working class suburbs which I had thought were more winnable (Macomb, Long Island, Staten Island) have swung massively towards Trump with him currently leading in Nassau. Blue Dog Democrats like Bullock, Peterson, Torres-Small lost their races. A Democratic Senate looks increasingly unlikely and its clear that the dominant narrative will be that Trump defied the polls yet again even if Biden pulls through on the outstanding absentee ballots in the Rust Belt trio. Any semblance of moral victory against Trumpism or of a decisive electoral defeat for the GOP has been lost. At best, Biden will preside over a replay of Obama's second term with all the potential for midterm disaster and a rerun of Trumpism in 2024 that it entails.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

NV is looking to be a nail biter. I have a feeling the election day votes in Clark may be better for Trump than expected, although Ralston is confident in Biden. If Trump could win it that would give him another route to 270. The final map could look a little screwy.

If Ralston is bullish on Biden in NV, then I'm bullish on him as well.

He's been getting less confident over time however; I don't think he'd want to contradict his prediction until its certain to go one way.

That's a fair point.

[Calthrina950]

For all the early consternation about Virginia, it looks like Biden will win it by about 10%.  Some people never learn.

I don't think that it was ever in doubt that Biden would win Virginia. It's just that many people were expecting it to be a near-instant (or even instant) call for him, and not for it to drag out for as long as it did. That is what would have happened were Biden winning by the "landslide" polls had predicted.

[Panda Express]

Trump got annihilated in Colorado. 14 point win with the remaining ballots favoring Dems

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

If there’s one thing I think I’ve learned from the last 4 years, it’s that rural counties should require civics tests before they’re residents are allowed to vote.

[VBM]

Obama made a huge mistake by not pushing for DC statehood when he had the trifecta.

In retrospect he made a LOT of mistakes when he had not only a trifecta, but briefly a supermajority.

I just don’t get why he didn’t do DC statehood. It would have been so easy

[Vespucci]

Trump got annihilated in Colorado. 14 point win with the remaining ballots favoring Dems

Is it enough to flip CO-3?

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Is there...gonna be an update?

[Horus]

Obama made a huge mistake by not pushing for DC statehood when he had the trifecta.

In retrospect he made a LOT of mistakes when he had not only a trifecta, but briefly a supermajority.

Joe Lieberman didn't help, and the Democratic party of the time was even more of a mish mosh of ideological coalitions. There was still an entire section of Blue Dogs who were for all intents and purposes Republicans.

Obama had to walk a fine line. If he tried to push for more and be more of an activist president he would've been dispatched in 2012 for being the "angry black guy." By the time his second term came along congress was already gone.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

If there’s one thing I think I’ve learned from the last 4 years, it’s that rural counties should require civics tests before they’re residents are allowed to vote.

So you want to repeal the Voting Rights Act?

[Calthrina950]

Just a very weird and disappointing election overall. Biden seemingly doing worse than Clinton in many working-class areas ranging from Youngstown to the Rio Grande Valley despite an admirable recovery in the Iron Range and New England. Even the denser white working class suburbs which I had thought were more winnable (Macomb, Long Island, Staten Island) have swung massively towards Trump with him currently leading in Nassau. Blue Dog Democrats like Bullock, Peterson, Torres-Small lost their races. A Democratic Senate looks increasingly unlikely and its clear that the dominant narrative will be that Trump defied the polls yet again even if Biden pulls through on the outstanding absentee ballots in the Rust Belt trio. Any semblance of moral victory against Trumpism or of a decisive electoral defeat for the GOP has been lost. At best, Biden will preside over a replay of Obama's second term with all the potential for midterm disaster and a rerun of Trumpism in 2024 that it entails.

I hate saying this, but I actually want Trump to win at this point. A Biden Presidency with a Republican Senate and an underwhelming electoral mandate would usher in a revival of Trumpism in 2024-with a banner carried by a more electorally formidable and "relatable" Republican candidate such as Hawley or DeSantis. Trump winning this year would give Democrats a fighting chance at a decent midterm in 2022 and the White House in 2024.

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Upper Midwest suburb alert: Anoka, MN swing from 41% to HRC to 48% for Biden. That's big!

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Obama made a huge mistake by not pushing for DC statehood when he had the trifecta.

In retrospect he made a LOT of mistakes when he had not only a trifecta, but briefly a supermajority.

Joe Lieberman didn't help, and the Democratic party of the time was even more of a mish mosh of ideological coalitions. There was still an entire section of Blue Dogs who were for all intents and purposes Republicans.

Obama had to walk a fine line. If he tried to push for more and be more of an activist president he would've been dispatched in 2012 for being the "angry black guy." By the time his second term came along congress was already gone.

Joe Lieberman is not why DC statehood didn't happen.

[BlueSwan]

Obama made a huge mistake by not pushing for DC statehood when he had the trifecta.

In retrospect he made a LOT of mistakes when he had not only a trifecta, but briefly a supermajority.

I just don’t get why he didn’t do DC statehood. It would have been so easy

He was trying to "reach out" to republicans, remember.

Obama was a sublime campaigner and a great presidential figure and symbolic leader of the free world, but he was NOT good at power politics at all.

[ibagli]

What a totally weird election:

[Storr]

Obama made a huge mistake by not pushing for DC statehood when he had the trifecta.

In retrospect he made a LOT of mistakes when he had not only a trifecta, but briefly a supermajority.

I just don’t get why he didn’t do DC statehood. It would have been so easy

It was probably something stupid like Lieberman or Ben Nelson being against it, and with a 60 seat majority (and later 59 once Kennedy died and Dems lost the special election) and Reid unwilling to weaken the filibuster at that point, it wouldn't have passed the Senate.

[Splash]

https://twitter.com/mattsmith_news/status/1323914505638809601

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Obama made a huge mistake by not pushing for DC statehood when he had the trifecta.

In retrospect he made a LOT of mistakes when he had not only a trifecta, but briefly a supermajority.

I just don’t get why he didn’t do DC statehood. It would have been so easy

It was probably something stupid like Lieberman or Ben Nelson being against it, and with a 60 seat (and later 59 once Kennedy died) supermajority and Reid unwilling to weaken the filibuster at that point, it wouldn't have passed the Senate.

Joe Lieberman sucks but lets stop blaming him for why DC statehood didn't happen.

[Gren]

As regards Pennsylvania, I think Biden will also make it. Again, look at the swings in the counties where almost all of the vote has been reported.

A 7-point swing in Pike.
A 4-point swing in Lackawanna.
A 5-point swing in Wayne.
A 4-point swing in York.
A 5-point swing in Dauphin.

Just a 1-point swing needed in PA, folks, and so many ballots pending in Philly, the suburbs, Allegheny and Eire. Barring a disaster in those counties (and, judging by Biden's performance in the suburbs elsewhere, I doubt it), he's taking PA.

[BlueSwan]

Just a very weird and disappointing election overall. Biden seemingly doing worse than Clinton in many working-class areas ranging from Youngstown to the Rio Grande Valley despite an admirable recovery in the Iron Range and New England. Even the denser white working class suburbs which I had thought were more winnable (Macomb, Long Island, Staten Island) have swung massively towards Trump with him currently leading in Nassau. Blue Dog Democrats like Bullock, Peterson, Torres-Small lost their races. A Democratic Senate looks increasingly unlikely and its clear that the dominant narrative will be that Trump defied the polls yet again even if Biden pulls through on the outstanding absentee ballots in the Rust Belt trio. Any semblance of moral victory against Trumpism or of a decisive electoral defeat for the GOP has been lost. At best, Biden will preside over a replay of Obama's second term with all the potential for midterm disaster and a rerun of Trumpism in 2024 that it entails.

I hate saying this, but I actually want Trump to win at this point. A Biden Presidency with a Republican Senate and an underwhelming electoral mandate would usher in a revival of Trumpism in 2024-with a banner carried by a more electorally formidable and "relatable" Republican candidate such as Hawley or DeSantis. Trump winning this year would give Democrats a fighting chance at a decent midterm in 2022 and the White House in 2024.

Just no. Another four years of Trump will be absolutely horrible, give us a 7-2 supreme court, more relentless attacks on democratic institutions and lead to absolute apathy amongst democratic voters, especially after this election result.

[Calthrina950]

Trump got annihilated in Colorado. 14 point win with the remaining ballots favoring Dems

Is it enough to flip CO-3?

I don't think so. Boebert has been leading by a stubborn 5% margin for hours now, and I don't think Mitsch-Bush is going to be able to make it up. The defeats of Peterson, Torres-Small, Horn, and other such Democrats gives credence to my belief that it will be a Republican hold. Moreover-as I noted-Biden was unable to restore Democratic strength in Southern Colorado to pre-2016 levels, and that should work to Boebert's advantage.

[Pericles]

Any idea what the national popular vote ends up as?

[Calthrina950]

Just a very weird and disappointing election overall. Biden seemingly doing worse than Clinton in many working-class areas ranging from Youngstown to the Rio Grande Valley despite an admirable recovery in the Iron Range and New England. Even the denser white working class suburbs which I had thought were more winnable (Macomb, Long Island, Staten Island) have swung massively towards Trump with him currently leading in Nassau. Blue Dog Democrats like Bullock, Peterson, Torres-Small lost their races. A Democratic Senate looks increasingly unlikely and its clear that the dominant narrative will be that Trump defied the polls yet again even if Biden pulls through on the outstanding absentee ballots in the Rust Belt trio. Any semblance of moral victory against Trumpism or of a decisive electoral defeat for the GOP has been lost. At best, Biden will preside over a replay of Obama's second term with all the potential for midterm disaster and a rerun of Trumpism in 2024 that it entails.

I hate saying this, but I actually want Trump to win at this point. A Biden Presidency with a Republican Senate and an underwhelming electoral mandate would usher in a revival of Trumpism in 2024-with a banner carried by a more electorally formidable and "relatable" Republican candidate such as Hawley or DeSantis. Trump winning this year would give Democrats a fighting chance at a decent midterm in 2022 and the White House in 2024.

Just no. Another four years of Trump will be absolutely horrible, give us a 7-2 supreme court, more relentless attacks on democratic institutions and lead to absolute apathy amongst democratic voters, especially after this election result.

It's a choice between two evils for many. Biden's agenda will be blocked by McConnell, and Republicans would be poised to regain control of the House in 2022, ridding off anti-Biden backlash. Recent political history shows us that such an outcome is very possible.