2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

So how are we currently feeling about:

MI?

WI?

PA?

MI: At this point Trump has surpassed or nearly surpassed his total 2016 votes in a few traditionally Republican counties (eg. Ottawa) and also in Flint. His margin in key counties like Macomb is substantial but he's farther from hitting his 2016 vote totals. Typically the Democratic votes in Detroit come late in Michigan even without mail ins, but on the other hand Michigan Republicans have a strong mail in vote operation and I doubt they'll be getting blown out like they will be in Pennsylvania. One bright spot for Biden is that he won back Leelaunau and has 1,000 more voters than Hillary did with 90% reporting. Probably the hardest state to call right now but it has the most for Biden to be happy about outside of the suburbs. Tilt Biden I guess?

WI: Everything I'm seeing suggests Trump will win. He's improving his vote totals in key southwestern counties that Biden was supposed to have won back and the Wisconsin suburbs are famously inflexible to the usual trends. In Lafayette Trump has pulled 1000 brand new voters straight out of his ass when they were supposed to be defecting in droves to Biden. The only silver lining for Biden is that he's somehow doing even better in Madison, but Madison alone ain't gonna cut it. Unless Biden pulls out crazy numbers from Milwaukee or its surrounding suburbs or unless it turns out the maps are lying and actually there are thousands of mail ins for those key southwestern states and turnout is almost double 2016 somehow I don't see a path for Biden and frankly I want to be proven wrong. Likely Trump.

PA: There are similarly bad signs for Biden in Trump's total votes in counties like Erie, but at least Biden can rest safe knowing hundreds of thousands of votes will arrive near the end of the count in his favour and his margins/turnout in the Philly suburbs will probably be substantial. The Allegheny turnout and margin will matter a ton here and I think will be decisive: if Trump does significantly worse here than his 2016 margin on the back of the suburbs (40%) then Biden has the edge but if Trump even manages to stem the bleeding to at least 35%ish then he'll be in a good position to win.

You’re completely wrong about Wisconsin for several reasons that have been explained repeatedly. You’re too obsessed with those Southwest counties and have ignored Biden’s gains elsewhere and the massive amount of outstanding Milwaukee vote.

I've seen the explanations but I just don't buy them.

The cities could save Biden, but from what I've seen the big turnout among suburban anti-Trump whites has been matched by comparatively low turnout (and very slightly worse margins) with urban nonwhites. Milwaukee proper has plenty of votes left for Biden, but I've seen zero evidence that Biden is going to improve enough to make up the difference literally everywhere else.

The WOW could also save Biden if the mail ins are really favourable (I'll get to that in a minute), but while it doesn't look like as disastrous for Biden as the Southwest it also doesn't look great for him. Trump already has 137k votes in Waukesha (he ended 2016 with 144k), 55k in Washington (he got 51k in 2016), 29k in Ozaukee (30k in 2016), 42.5k in Racine (47k in 2016) and 33k in Kenosha (36k in 2016). Biden has also improved his turnout, but not by the sort of margins necessary to single handedly save the state for him.


If the mail in vote was as heavily for Biden as it is in Pennsylvania then he might have a shot but it isn't. It'll make things much closer but it won't save Biden. I'm getting confident enough about this that I'd be willing to make a flair bet.

[BudgieForce]

Are MI and WI done for the night?

[Calthrina950]

Biden has got to spend the next 4 years appealing to Hispanics. Like, some of these results are embarrassing, especially against Trump.

I miss Tío Bernie.

In hindsight, Biden's poor performance in the Nevada caucuses should have been a warning sign for Democrats.

Its almost as if....people have been warning about Biden's Latino problem since June.

I myself raised my doubts about Biden's performance with minority voters-blacks and Hispanics alike-previously. I should have trusted my gut.

[It’s so Joever]

Trump can easily still win but if he loses the doomers, especially the big three tonight need to publicly apologize or be tossed from the site.

I will publicly apologize IF Biden pulls it off. I expect Alben barkley and Monstro to concede their ludicrous hubris as well.

[Never Made it to Graceland]

Trump can easily still win but if he loses the doomers, especially the big three tonight need to publicly apologize or be tossed from the site.

No matter what happens, the Republicans have kept the Senate which puts any victory lap for mainstream Dems off the table.

[MasterJedi]

Are MI and WI done for the night?

Milwaukee is until 5am at the earliest.

[lfromnj]

The fajita districts are scarily close for Democrats, Cuellar is up by 3 and so is Gonzalez, I think the last few votes there should be D leaning but still very good news for GOP redistricting in 2022. Especially with depolarization they can argue for just perhaps 2 Rio Grande D packs and crack the rest for Hispanic Republicans.

[VBM]

A lot of the arguments for why we can’t nominate Bernie were proven to be moot tonight, regardless of who wins

[emailking]

Biden has got to spend the next 4 years appealing to Hispanics. Like, some of these results are embarrassing, especially against Trump.

I miss Tío Bernie.

In hindsight, Biden's poor performance in the Nevada caucuses should have been a warning sign for Democrats.

It's a primary with a lot of candidates. There's nothing to base it on really. He could have been the most popular candidate while being the first choice of few.

[Beet]

Trump can easily still win but if he loses the doomers, especially the big three tonight need to publicly apologize or be tossed from the site.

No matter what happens, the Republicans have kept the Senate which puts any victory lap for mainstream Dems off the table.

Yeah, I don't see how even a Biden victory after this would be a rebuke for 'doomers.' We've been more than vindicated tonight.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Trump can easily still win but if he loses the doomers, especially the big three tonight need to publicly apologize or be tossed from the site.

No matter what happens, the Republicans have kept the Senate which puts any victory lap for mainstream Dems off the table.

That is still not a guarantee.

[politics_king]

Are MI and WI done for the night?

Milwaukee is until 5am at the earliest.

That's dumb

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Trump can easily still win but if he loses the doomers, especially the big three tonight need to publicly apologize or be tossed from the site.

No matter what happens, the Republicans have kept the Senate which puts any victory lap for mainstream Dems off the table.

Unless both Senate seats go to runoffs and Democrats win (and Peters keeps his seat, which I haven’t actually seen anything about).

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

This is what happens when we let old black people and moderate Republicans choose the Democratic Nominee.

[Alben Barkley]

Also my belief in Wisconsin being the bluest and Michigan being the reddest of the big three continues to be confirmed.

First of all that has not been confirmed. Second of all, “your belief” that Trump would win the election while losing WI and PA because of MI has DEFINITELY not been confirmed. In fact that’s impossible now that Biden’s won AZ and NE-02.

Dude, how can you STILL be so damn arrogant after being humiliated with your Biden 413 map? My prediction is almost certainly going to be better than yours in many ways.

My 413 map was just giving Biden all the toss-ups. I was never certain it was gonna happen. My CONFIDENCE map was 290, which looks about right.

I love watching you twist your own predictions to seem justified in your months of boasting.

I’m not twisting a damn thing. Again, I said MANY times that Biden could win with less. I just chose to give him every state I could see going either way in my no toss-up map (and all seem like they are gonna turn out pretty close) for the hell of it. Because that’s what I was hoping for. Because I’m not a doomer who gets off on despair. Never claimed it was definitely gonna happen — again, my CONFIDENCE map was the states I was CONFIDENT Biden would win — and certainly didn’t boast about it. REALLY ironic for someone who has changed his name to “I will now accept my accolades” because he feels smug about his... wrong prediction to accuse others of “boasting,” by the way.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Biden has got to spend the next 4 years appealing to Hispanics. Like, some of these results are embarrassing, especially against Trump.

I miss Tío Bernie.

In hindsight, Biden's poor performance in the Nevada caucuses should have been a warning sign for Democrats.

It's a primary with a lot of candidates. There's nothing to base it on really. He could have been the most popular candidate while being the first choice of few.

If he was, he'd have gotten more votes in the second/third rounds of the caucuses.

[RI]

Trump can easily still win but if he loses the doomers, especially the big three tonight need to publicly apologize or be tossed from the site.

No matter what happens, the Republicans have kept the Senate which puts any victory lap for mainstream Dems off the table.

Unless both Senate seats go to runoffs and Democrats win (and Peters keeps his seat, which I haven’t actually seen anything about).

If Biden wins, the R's will win both runoffs.

[BudgieForce]

I think Bernie might have done slightly better but your ignoring Trump's near even approval rating in the exit polls. If that's accurate, Trump was going to be incredibly difficult to beat by any candidate.

[Storr]

CNN projects NE-2 for Joe!

[lfromnj]

Also my belief in Wisconsin being the bluest and Michigan being the reddest of the big three continues to be confirmed.

First of all that has not been confirmed. Second of all, “your belief” that Trump would win the election while losing WI and PA because of MI has DEFINITELY not been confirmed. In fact that’s impossible now that Biden’s won AZ and NE-02.

Dude, how can you STILL be so damn arrogant after being humiliated with your Biden 413 map? My prediction is almost certainly going to be better than yours in many ways.

My 413 map was just giving Biden all the toss-ups. I was never certain it was gonna happen. My CONFIDENCE map was 290, which looks about right.

I love watching you twist your own predictions to seem justified in your months of boasting.

I’m not twisting a damn thing. Again, I said MANY times that Biden could win with less. I just chose to give him every state I could see going either way in my no toss-up man (and all seem like they are gonna turn out pretty close) for the hell of it. Because that’s what I was hoping for. Because I’m not a doomer who gets off on despair. Never claimed it was definitely gonna happen — again, my CONFIDENCE map was the states I was CONFIDENT Biden would win — and certainly didn’t boast about it. REALLY ironic for someone who has changed his name to “I will now accept my accolades” because he feels smug about his... wrong prediction to accuse others of “boasting,” bu the way.

Texas is not "close"

neither is Florida

Eat your crow like a  man, like Monstro and I do, I admit I was wrong on those 2 states.

[GALeftist]

Does anyone think Bullock still has a chance? I've spot-checked some counties against Tester's 2018 map, and I'm just not sure.

I dunno, maybe. Those Yellowstone numbers don't exactly fill me with confidence, though.

[Agonized-Statism]

I love watching you twist your own predictions to seem justified in your months of boasting.

I hope the takeaway is that ad hominem-filled rages at anyone who posts a map that doesn't show a Biden landslide, both on the 2020 board and elsewhere, aren't factual and rational responses.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Trump can easily still win but if he loses the doomers, especially the big three tonight need to publicly apologize or be tossed from the site.

No matter what happens, the Republicans have kept the Senate which puts any victory lap for mainstream Dems off the table.

They defintiely haven’t kept the Senate for sure because ME and GA will require run-offs, to be decided in a few days in Maine, and several weeks in Georgia.

[Illiniwek]

CNN projects NE-2 for Joe!

Every (electoral) vote counts!

[justfollowingtheelections]

Is the presidential race over in North Carolina?  I don't see anyone talking about that state.  And what happened to the Senate race?