WI-SEN 2022 Megathread: Who stole my cheese?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Furthermore do users know what a range is, no they don't it's called wave insurance it's a 50 we get Divided Govt, 40 Secular Trifecta and 10 R Congress 235/210RH 51/56 D Senate seats that means the median is 230RH and 52/48 D S WI and PA but Beasley, Ryan and Demings are OVERPERFORMING meaning we can get with LA a D S when if we lose the H with more than 52 votes, and can win the H back in 24

[Spectator]

https://host2.adimpact.com/admo/viewer/2d7c9a36-8132-467d-8aab-77346e40ffc6

This ad of Barnes praising the squad and talking about driver license for illegal immigrants is why I always thought he was longshot against Johnson. This is a Bernie acolyte running in a state Biden barely won. Johnson will make this race a referendum on Barnes and he will win in the end.

Yes, Barnes was not the vehicle capable of taking advantage of Johnson’s weaknesses and extremism because he has his weaknesses of his own on that front. Maybe I’m wrong, but I expect Johnson to scare enough people to win again.

[wbrocks67]

https://host2.adimpact.com/admo/viewer/2d7c9a36-8132-467d-8aab-77346e40ffc6

This ad of Barnes praising the squad and talking about driver license for illegal immigrants is why I always thought he was longshot against Johnson. This is a Bernie acolyte running in a state Biden barely won. Johnson will make this race a referendum on Barnes and he will win in the end.

Yes, Barnes was not the vehicle capable of taking advantage of Johnson’s weaknesses and extremism because he has his weaknesses of his own on that front. Maybe I’m wrong, but I expect Johnson to scare enough people to win again.

So voters are okay with Johnsons extremism but not a few of Barnes more liberal talking points? Come on now.

[SnowLabrador]

https://host2.adimpact.com/admo/viewer/2d7c9a36-8132-467d-8aab-77346e40ffc6

This ad of Barnes praising the squad and talking about driver license for illegal immigrants is why I always thought he was longshot against Johnson. This is a Bernie acolyte running in a state Biden barely won. Johnson will make this race a referendum on Barnes and he will win in the end.

Yes, Barnes was not the vehicle capable of taking advantage of Johnson’s weaknesses and extremism because he has his weaknesses of his own on that front. Maybe I’m wrong, but I expect Johnson to scare enough people to win again.

So voters are okay with Johnsons extremism but not a few of Barnes more liberal talking points? Come on now.

Unfortunately, the media has an insane double standard when it comes to how extreme Democrats are versus Republicans. That's what will allow Johnson to win a third term. That, and the national environment.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://host2.adimpact.com/admo/viewer/2d7c9a36-8132-467d-8aab-77346e40ffc6

This ad of Barnes praising the squad and talking about driver license for illegal immigrants is why I always thought he was longshot against Johnson. This is a Bernie acolyte running in a state Biden barely won. Johnson will make this race a referendum on Barnes and he will win in the end.

Yes, Barnes was not the vehicle capable of taking advantage of Johnson’s weaknesses and extremism because he has his weaknesses of his own on that front. Maybe I’m wrong, but I expect Johnson to scare enough people to win again.

So voters are okay with Johnsons extremism but not a few of Barnes more liberal talking points? Come on now.

Unfortunately, the media has an insane double standard when it comes to how extreme Democrats are versus Republicans. That's what will allow Johnson to win a third term. That, and the national environment.

About that national environment thing...

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1558095352485511170

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

https://host2.adimpact.com/admo/viewer/2d7c9a36-8132-467d-8aab-77346e40ffc6

This ad of Barnes praising the squad and talking about driver license for illegal immigrants is why I always thought he was longshot against Johnson. This is a Bernie acolyte running in a state Biden barely won. Johnson will make this race a referendum on Barnes and he will win in the end.

I don't think that this is a particularly potent line of attack, largely because the message on immigration is diluted by hitting Barnes for supporting free higher education, which is basically popular, and ties him to the Squad, who are pretty invisible these days.

As usual, I am baffled by Republicans deciding to tie Democrats to Bernie Sanders or "the Squad" instead of Joe Biden, who is far more unpopular.

[President Johnson]

https://host2.adimpact.com/admo/viewer/2d7c9a36-8132-467d-8aab-77346e40ffc6

This ad of Barnes praising the squad and talking about driver license for illegal immigrants is why I always thought he was longshot against Johnson. This is a Bernie acolyte running in a state Biden barely won. Johnson will make this race a referendum on Barnes and he will win in the end.

Yes, Barnes was not the vehicle capable of taking advantage of Johnson’s weaknesses and extremism because he has his weaknesses of his own on that front. Maybe I’m wrong, but I expect Johnson to scare enough people to win again.

So voters are okay with Johnsons extremism but not a few of Barnes more liberal talking points? Come on now.

Unfortunately, the media has an insane double standard when it comes to how extreme Democrats are versus Republicans. That's what will allow Johnson to win a third term. That, and the national environment.

About that national environment thing...

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1558095352485511170

If that indeed becomes true in November - and it's still a big if - Dobbs will just be one of three major reasons in my opinion. Equally important would be inflation cooling down with gas prices further dropping and Republicans pandering so much to the extreme that it scares off swing voters and energizes the Democratic base, including progressives uneasy with Biden not getting more stuff passed.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

We're getting a MQK poll next weak is Johnson the Fav yes but is he the prohibited fav only Fetterman is the prohibited Fav bit we are the favs to hold the Senate and we can get anywhere between 51/56 seats but in Act blue they are conceding IA and MO to Rs they're not conceding anything else, I get emails all the time in what races there are poor Blks and Latinos and Muslims and single female moms in TX, FL, NC and OH, not just white men

Atlas thinks that females don't vote D they. Do, I was raised by a single mom

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://host2.adimpact.com/admo/viewer/2d7c9a36-8132-467d-8aab-77346e40ffc6

This ad of Barnes praising the squad and talking about driver license for illegal immigrants is why I always thought he was longshot against Johnson. This is a Bernie acolyte running in a state Biden barely won. Johnson will make this race a referendum on Barnes and he will win in the end.

Yes, Barnes was not the vehicle capable of taking advantage of Johnson’s weaknesses and extremism because he has his weaknesses of his own on that front. Maybe I’m wrong, but I expect Johnson to scare enough people to win again.

So voters are okay with Johnsons extremism but not a few of Barnes more liberal talking points? Come on now.

Unfortunately, the media has an insane double standard when it comes to how extreme Democrats are versus Republicans. That's what will allow Johnson to win a third term. That, and the national environment.

About that national environment thing...

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1558095352485511170

If that indeed becomes true in November - and it's still a big if - Dobbs will just be one of three major reasons in my opinion. Equally important would be inflation cooling down with gas prices further dropping and Republicans pandering so much to the extreme that it scares off swing voters and energizes the Democratic base, including progressives uneasy with Biden not getting more stuff passed.

I would say that all of that fits into a theme of a weakened Republican message. Without the economy to run against as effectively all they're left with is pandering to the Trump base, which some were already doing when they didn't have to!

[SnowLabrador]

A new Marquette poll is coming out later today. I think it will show Barnes leading, but that doesn't mean he's going to win.

[Xing]

Any guesses for the poll, since predicting polls is the most Atlas thing ever? I’m thinking Barnes +3. Doesn’t mean much, though the October poll is worth paying some attention to, even if it’s not necessarily going to nail the actual result.

[wbrocks67]

Any guesses for the poll, since predicting polls is the most Atlas thing ever? I’m thinking Barnes +3. Doesn’t mean much, though the October poll is worth paying some attention to, even if it’s not necessarily going to nail the actual result.

Just hoping the undecideds aren't too high.

[SnowLabrador]

Barnes +3 makes sense if the end result is something like Johnson +6 (which is about what I expect.)

[wesmoorenerd]

Barnes +3 makes sense if the end result is something like Johnson +6 (which is about what I expect.)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Barnes +3 makes sense if the end result is something like Johnson +6 (which is about what I expect.)

Lol stop Dooming on Barnes Johnson won by 3 pts do you know there are 390 K provision ballots statewide and Johnson isn't gonna get every vote last time, did you know Biden only won in Provisional ballots in AZ,I, WO, PA Erie Cty, PA had provision ballots statewide 300K votes is Johnson plus 3 and equal to 300 K statewide Provisional ballots

We are competetive in AK AL and that is Safe R state Palin was supposed to win outright Mary Peltola is now the leader and have a chance to win that seat if we are competetive in AK AL it's a blue not red wave

You must not have heard Steve Konraki he said Palin was supposed to walk away with this race and she is struggling  and Ryan, Beasley are all overperform

Oh I forgot users that Doom on D's don't watch MSNBC they watch Fox but Fox news said Beasley can win NC

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Barnes +3 makes sense if the end result is something like Johnson +6 (which is about what I expect.)

.
Users are gonna have Crow, Barnes leads by 7 points😊😊😊😊

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/natashakorecki/status/1559994114862710785

[Xing]

https://twitter.com/natashakorecki/status/1559994114862710785

This was his strategy in 2016 as well. Barnes needs to define him as a wealthy Washington insider and frame himself as the one who is in touch with voters before Johnson can flip the script and argue that he’s the one who can “bring change to Washington”, despite being a two-term Senator who would love more “business as usual.”

[Stockdale for Veep]

Has Businessman RonJon ever stated why he suddenly decided not to challenge WI's completely fraudulent electoral vote count?

[Koharu]

Has Businessman RonJon ever stated why he suddenly decided not to challenge WI's completely fraudulent electoral vote count?

He's on tape saying the stuff re: "election integrity" is bull-hockey. He's tried to back-track it, but his heart isn't in the election conspiracy stuff.

Mr Johnson tells the woman that he disagreed, noting that there was "nothing obviously skewed about the results”.

“If all the Republicans voted for Trump the way they voted for the Assembly candidates, he would have won. He didn’t get 51,000 votes that other Republicans got, and that’s why he lost,” Mr Johnson said.

https://news.yahoo.com/senator-ron-johnson-recorded-saying-203704960.html

[Koharu]

Milwaukee Journal Sentinel article on the Marquette Law poll

One difference is that Johnson is considerably more unpopular now than he was six years ago. His “negative rating” — the share of voters who view him unfavorably — is the highest it has ever been (47%) since Marquette began polling on Johnson almost a decade ago.

...

There has been no significant election-year improvement in Johnson’s numbers, no recovery into positive territory. His mix of “favorables” and “unfavorables” was 36/42 last October (a minus 6 rating), 33/45 this February (minus 12), 36/46 this April (minus 10), 37/46 this June (minus 9) and 38/47 (minus 9) in the new August poll. Johnson has had a net negative rating now for more than a year, easily his longest stretch “under water” in Marquette’s polling.

[windjammer]

I don't know if that is just me but Barnes has something special. The way he speaks makes me want to Trust him. He's very good at it to portray himself as some very warm trustworthy man.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Any users forget Obama and Biden won WI, Tammy Baldwin was supposed to lose to Tommy Thompson and she beat him and Barnes and Evers best Scott Walker and Kleefisch in 2018 thats why Barnes is winning WI is a Divided state it votes sometimes for Rs and Johnson lucked out and beat Feingold by 3 not 10 pts MOE

[MATTROSE94]

It would be interesting if Mandela Barnes pulls through. Do you think there will be a lot of Michels/Barnes split ticket voters or no? I still think Tim Michels is the favorite to win even if Mandela Barnes pills through, as Tony Evers is a very weak governor who didn’t accomplish much.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/NoLieWithBTC/status/1560707406757232642