2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[wbrocks67]

Given the huge Dem lead in mail in ballots in NC, you'd think Reps would be able to close the gap in In-Person early votes, but it still appears that Dems are still leading those considerably as well.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Miami wasn’t really pro-Dem as some hoped so first day was a virtual tie which is still good for Dems

[vitoNova]

Hot take:  lots of working class Dems will sit this election out because they want the economy to open up as fast possible.   Grandma be damned. 

[GeorgiaModerate]

Hot take:  lots of working class Dems will sit this election out because they want the economy to open up as fast possible.   Grandma be damned. 

Hotter take: taking steps to get the virus under control is the fastest way to get the economy fully open.

[bilaps]

https://twitter.com/TRussellCBS4/status/1318378841518280704

WTB breakdown of totals, but it's looking like Democrats netted votes from both mail and early voting today in FL.

So, this didn't happen.

[TheTide]

Hot take:  lots of working class Dems will sit this election out because they want the economy to open up as fast possible.   Grandma be damned. 

Hotter take: taking steps to get the virus under control is the fastest way to get the economy fully open.

Vaccine, vaccine, vaccine.

[wbrocks67]

TX already at 51% of 2016 vote.

[ajc0918]

https://twitter.com/TRussellCBS4/status/1318378841518280704

WTB breakdown of totals, but it's looking like Democrats netted votes from both mail and early voting today in FL.

So, this didn't happen.

Barely. Dems still gained ~8,000 or so on the day due to mail ballots. They lost the early vote by 365 or so votes out of over 364,000 votes cast.

[wbrocks67]

https://twitter.com/TRussellCBS4/status/1318378841518280704

WTB breakdown of totals, but it's looking like Democrats netted votes from both mail and early voting today in FL.

So, this didn't happen.

Barely. Dems still gained ~8,000 or so on the day due to mail ballots. They lost the early vote by 365 or so votes out of over 364,000 votes cast.

Given the Dems major lead among mail ins, shouldn't Reps be doing considerably better then among in person voters?

[Minnesota Mike]

Watch mail in ballot returns today in Florida. I suspect a lot of Mail Ballots were dropped off at drop boxes at early voting sites yesterday and will be processed today. Pinellas County has already processed more Mail Ballots today than they did all yesterday for example.

[wbrocks67]

3.023 million votes cast in FL now. 364K early in person votes, Dem and GOP virtually tied. Dems have a 16-pt lead combined.

https://twitter.com/mcimaps/status/1318548087409868806

[ProgressiveModerate]

3.023 million votes cast in FL now. 364K early in person votes, Dem and GOP virtually tied. Dems have a 16-pt lead combined.

https://twitter.com/mcimaps/status/1318548087409868806

I'm curious how Independents voted. This is also a tad misleading, because in a place like FL, there are going to be quite a few DINOs, especially in the panhandle, who are voting for Trump, while there are definately some older folk RINOs who are tired of Trumpism and like Biden. The question really is which group is larger.

[tagimaucia]

3.023 million votes cast in FL now. 364K early in person votes, Dem and GOP virtually tied. Dems have a 16-pt lead combined.

https://twitter.com/mcimaps/status/1318548087409868806

I'm curious how Independents voted. This is also a tad misleading, because in a place like FL, there are going to be quite a few DINOs, especially in the panhandle, who are voting for Trump, while there are definately some older folk RINOs who are tired of Trumpism and like Biden. The question really is which group is larger.

There should really be a poll aggregator site that averages the crosstabs across different polls and not just the toplines.

[Non Swing Voter]

3.023 million votes cast in FL now. 364K early in person votes, Dem and GOP virtually tied. Dems have a 16-pt lead combined.

https://twitter.com/mcimaps/status/1318548087409868806

I'm curious how Independents voted. This is also a tad misleading, because in a place like FL, there are going to be quite a few DINOs, especially in the panhandle, who are voting for Trump, while there are definately some older folk RINOs who are tired of Trumpism and like Biden. The question really is which group is larger.

IIRC, Republicans had 5% higher turnout than Dems in 2018, which basically ended in a draw.  I'd assume 2018 is the best guide for how the sides split (if not a bit more favorable to Dems this time).  So I'd say if Dems can just keep pace with GOP turnout when all votes are counted then I think they'll win.

[Gass3268]

52,959 votes received in Wisconsin yesterday, a 6.14% increase. Tuesday tends to be one of the bigger days for returns as they count ballots received from over the weekend. Wisconsin is now at 64.68% of absentee requests, 25.56% of registered voters, and 30.78% 2016 voters. Dane County did not hit 50% of 2016 voters before in-person absentee voting started today, but they did hit 47%. I would not be shocked to see them pass 50% with tomorrow's update with in-person absentee voting. Milwaukee County keeps plugging along, adding the most new raw votes at 7,929. They are now up to 33.78% of 2016 votes cast, which is good for #4 in the state, impressive given some of the early concerns.

Milwaukee also coming out strong for the first day of in-person early voting:

https://twitter.com/shaqbrewster/status/1318559854701780992?s=20

https://twitter.com/BadgerPol/status/1318560961591185409?s=20

https://twitter.com/mdesisti/status/1318546966222147585?s=20

https://twitter.com/RyanJenkins_TV/status/1318551273243901952?s=20

In terms of other areas, Ozaukee and Waukesha continue to do a solid job returning votes, 32.77% and 32.04% of 2016 respectively. Washington County isn't at that same level, but more in the middle of the pack at 26.39%. The Fox Valley/Cities are coming in strong too, which makes sense given the COVID-19 outbreak there. Brown (36.67%), Outagamie (33.07%), and Winnebago (31.74%) are all over the state %. Let me know if there are any other areas you'd like to know about.

[Non Swing Voter]

52,959 votes received in Wisconsin yesterday, a 6.14% increase. Tuesday tends to be one of the bigger days for returns as they count ballots received from over the weekend. Wisconsin is now at 64.68% of absentee requests, 25.56% of registered voters, and 30.78% 2016 voters. Dane County did not hit 50% of 2016 voters before in-person absentee voting started today, but they did hit 47%. I would not be shocked to see them pass 50% with tomorrow's update with in-person absentee voting. Milwaukee County keeps plugging along, adding the most new raw votes at 7,929. They are now up to 33.78% of 2016 votes cast, which is good for #4 in the state, impressive given some of the early concerns.

Milwaukee also coming out strong for the first day of in-person early voting:

https://twitter.com/shaqbrewster/status/1318559854701780992?s=20

https://twitter.com/BadgerPol/status/1318560961591185409?s=20

https://twitter.com/mdesisti/status/1318546966222147585?s=20

https://twitter.com/RyanJenkins_TV/status/1318551273243901952?s=20

In terms of other areas, Ozaukee and Waukesha continue to do a solid job returning votes, 32.77% and 32.04% of 2016 respectively. Washington County isn't at that same level, but more in the middle of the pack at 26.39%. The Fox Valley/Cities are coming in strong too, which makes sense given the COVID-19 outbreak there. Brown (36.67%), Outagamie (33.07%), and Winnebago (31.74%) are all over the state %. Let me know if there are any other areas you'd like to know about.

The lines in Milwaukee are a promising sign for Biden right?

[GeneralMacArthur]

First day of early voting always has really long lines.  Don't read too much into it.

[Gass3268]

Snip

The lines in Milwaukee are a promising sign for Biden right?

Yes and it appears that the majority are African American voters.

[Buzz]

First day of early voting always has really long lines.  Don't read too much into it.

Exactly.  Georgia went from 8 hour lines to 20 minutes within a week.

[redjohn]

The line at my local polling place in Waukesha county was longer than it is on most election days, in my experience. Turnout is going to be gigantic this election.

[Gass3268]

Couple Wisconsin notes:
- Election workers won't go home until every vote is counted.
- Most municipalities in Wisconsin count their absentee ballots at polling places on Election Day, but Milwaukee and 38 other communities count their absentee ballots in a central location. I'm trying to find out who those 38 other communities are. Milwaukee is trying to get permission from the Wisconsin Elections commission the right to do an initial release of absentee voters of what they were able to count during the day.

https://twitter.com/patrickdmarley/status/1318569467610337280?s=20

[Non Swing Voter]

The line at my local polling place in Waukesha county was longer than it is on most election days, in my experience. Turnout is going to be gigantic this election.

That's a GOP area right?  So it seems both sides are energized.

[GeorgiaModerate]

First day of early voting always has really long lines.  Don't read too much into it.

Exactly.  Georgia went from 8 hour lines to 20 minutes within a week.

In addition to the initial burst of enthusiasm, a big cause of the long lines in the first few days was a bandwidth problem connecting to the system used to check in voters.  That problem has been rectified.

[redjohn]

The line at my local polling place in Waukesha county was longer than it is on most election days, in my experience. Turnout is going to be gigantic this election.

That's a GOP area right?  So it seems both sides are energized.

GOP area that's been trending & swinging Democratic since 2016. Not necessarily great news for Trump, especially given his #s among seniors in WI.

[Dr. Arch]

The line at my local polling place in Waukesha county was longer than it is on most election days, in my experience. Turnout is going to be gigantic this election.

That's a GOP area right?  So it seems both sides are energized.

If both sides were equally energized throughout this period, we wouldn't be seeing the extreme discrepancies in partisan registration that we're seeing across the whole country (where available).