2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[bilaps]

One state where I will monitor early votes and probably the only one is Florida. They have a history of mass early and mail votes and Republicans do vote by mail in solid numbers.

[bilaps]

One state where I will monitor early votes and probably the only one is Florida. They have a history of mass early and mail votes and Republicans do vote by mail in solid numbers.

Nevada and Arizona are also worth paying attention to since their early/mail vote is usually a very large percentage of the total turnout.

I take it that NV is already decided. Not sure for AZ though.

[bilaps]

Democrats seem to be returning ballots quicker than Republicans (in the small sample available).  I'm not buying the Trump enthusiasm edge.  This is starting to look more like a repeat of 2018 than anything.  Because Biden is a generic and non-offensive Democrat, I think the most likely scenario is that he wins by 7 points (or whatever the exact 2018 margin was) nationally and probably picks off the battleground states Dems won in 2018: PA, MI, WI, AZ, which would be enough to win.  In Florida, Republicans technically won but that's basically a tie.  If this pattern keeps up it seems like the outcome is going to be a small Biden win.

This is just the sort of takes you should avoid out of like 4k ballots returned from NC

[bilaps]

If people aren't capable of voting by mail like they should, their vote should still count, there are a lot of dumb people voting anyway. They should just vote in person instead.

[bilaps]

So, I looked at this very early numbers from FL and 2% return rate from Sarasota has caught my eye so I checked and the reason they have such big rate is because it says that number of requested ballots is like 2500. Some other counties also have small number of requested ballots while some have huge numbers. Why? Is there a different way these counties are taking up requests or?

[bilaps]

Unless we see something like 2mn democrats that have voted early in NC we will be able to learn nothing about the outcome of this election from NC numbers ever, let alone this early.

[bilaps]

Do we have a racial breakdown of these NC numbers so far?

Edit. Found it.

[bilaps]

Really good dashboard for tracking returned ballots so far in Florida.

https://public.tableau.com/profile/dave.trotter#!/vizhome/2020FloridaElectionData/VoteComposition

Where did he get these numbers? Because on official site there are only 7,5k ballots cast so far.

[bilaps]

Black turnout rate of 16% so far among Dem friendly sample isn't great for Dems though.

[bilaps]

Black turnout rate of 16% so far among Dem friendly sample isn't great for Dems though.

is this early voting or mail in voting as well. People should be skeptical of early voting results.

It's only the mail in.

[bilaps]

Still too early, but these 200k first FL votes look great for Democrats.

[bilaps]

As I said earlier, I'm going to look at FL and NV mostly because you can make some sense of early numbers in these states reason being that they have a history of both parties voting in big numbers by mail or early in-person. This year NV is going all mail in, and FL will certainly have more people than ever voting this way.

So far, it's still way too early, we're up to almost 250k mail ballots returned in Florida out of 5m plus that are for now requested. This early numbers favor Democrats heavily. They are in percentages way ahead of their share in 2016 or 2018 (18 being important because even though it was midterm it had two highly competitive races statewide and turnout was almost like in a presidential contest). What remains to be seen however is will this just even out eventualy because Dems are more enthusiastic right now to start the process or is it a sign of things to come. But we'll know these things eventuly before an election day.

[bilaps]

You have like 30 days to vote. I mean...

[bilaps]

Nevada is far from the most “likely” Clinton state to flip, and the Democrats have a sizable lead in votes cast so far overall. Not sure what’s so hard to understand about this.

Denial and fascism are pretty hard drugs apparently

Wow, fascism, really?

[bilaps]

https://twitter.com/TRussellCBS4/status/1318378841518280704

WTB breakdown of totals, but it's looking like Democrats netted votes from both mail and early voting today in FL.

So, this didn't happen.

[bilaps]

These guys are being misleading. Show the daily mail amounts as well

They are showing it.

Dems lead is down to 395k with the latest update.