CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[Continential]

I wonder if Paffrath will try to run for something in the future since he won a county. I can see him running for something big like Senate and getting 2% of the vote.

[Alben Barkley]

A possible preview of the new Fox Election Desk as they haven't called the race yet.

That's a shame. I honestly respected them for having the guts to make that AZ call last year, and Murdoch for sticking by it despite calls from a hysterical Trump. Caving to the mob is pathetic even by their standards. Looks like whatever shred of journalistic integrity Fox had left might be gone.

[gf20202]

A possible preview of the new Fox Election Desk as they haven't called the race yet.

Fox called it nearly thirty minutes ago, relying on the AP's call as their decision desk tonight.

[Non Swing Voter]

It seems like many on here are confident that this means Democrats will retain the House next year. It would not be wise to make that assumption.

Yeah, that's a really bad assumption on their part. My take from this is that Democrats can simultaneously lose the House while also defeating a number of Biden-district Republicans in the process.

It goes beyond redistricting to. This has restored my confidence that the Democrats aren't going to face a 30-40 seat loss. They have such a small majority however that keeping the house is a likely situation.

The thing is 2010 was so bad for them that the GOP can't go any more nuts without cOuRt InTeRvEnTiOn.

There was literally never any possibility of this.  The GOP won the majority of close congressional races in 2020 and a lot of them were within like a point or two.  A bunch in California.  Those incumbents are all in danger without Trump on the ballot.  And even though the GOP controls redistricting in more places, (a) they control less than they did last time the maps were drawn, (b) population has shifted to blue counties, (c) and I'm not convinced that blue states with commissions wont gerrymander on the margins anyways.  The only people here who ever predicted a big GOP rout in 2022 were also the ones who predicted this recall would be close.  

A lot of people here said if Newsom seriously underperformed then it would indicate Dems are going to have trouble in 2022.  But now apparently the reverse logic does not apply.  This is certainly indicative of the fact that Dems are retaining educated suburban voters and that's not great for the GOP in an off year election.  

And hot take: the SCOTUS's/Texas's despicable actions on abortion recently probably gave Newsom a few point boost here.

[emailking]

lol Newsom only needs like 5% of the outstanding vote to win.

[Alben Barkley]

I wonder if Paffrath will try to run for something in the future since he won a county. I can see him running for something big like Senate and getting 2% of the vote.

I think the only reason he won SF is because they would literally vote for Dead Cat (D) over any Republican there. I would LIKE to believe a YIMBY could win in NIMBYland for that reason, sure, but that's probably not why unfortunately.

[emailking]

Statistically there have to be some No/Elder voters, I wonder who they are.

Do you have to vote on the first question to vote on the 2nd though?

[Non Swing Voter]

A possible preview of the new Fox Election Desk as they haven't called the race yet.

That's a shame. I honestly respected them for having the guts to make that AZ call last year, and Murdoch for sticking by it despite calls from a hysterical Trump. Caving to the mob is pathetic even by their standards. Looks like whatever shred of journalistic integrity Fox had left might be gone.

Yeah but honestly, that AZ call was premature.  It turned out to be right but they had no business making it at that time.  And if you scroll back on the tapes the guy who made it said at the time that it was clear Biden was gonna win by like 80,000 votes or something that didn't at all pan out.

[Calthrina950]

It seems like many on here are confident that this means Democrats will retain the House next year. It would not be wise to make that assumption.

I don't think I've seen anyone say this before you did? That being said, the people claiming that "this election will show a collapse in Democratic support precipitating a collapse for Biden in the midterms" maybe need to...reevaluate.

There has (as of yet) been no mass "abandonment" of the Democrats/Biden from 2020.

It's not so much that people are saying it explicitly that they are implying it. I am someone who believes that next year will be a Republican-leaning environment, but I don't believe that Republicans will gain to the extent that they did in 1994 or 2010. However, I am also not convinced that Democrats will sweep all or that they will make major gains against their Republican opponents.

Some are "implying" it?  As opposed to many of the blue avatars here who EXPLICITLY said the CA recall would be within 10 points?  Which is more off base?  The red avatars seem to have a better track record of predicting things lately.

Why are you getting angry with me over this? Last year's results have made me much more careful and skeptical about polls and electoral trends than I was before. I was one of those who believed Biden would be winning in a landslide. I don't want to engage in reckless predictions again, and I've been concerned about polarization for a number of years now. I think it's fair to say that we have people on both ends of the ideological spectrum who've made inaccurate or false electoral predictions, and people on both ends of the spectrum who have made correct ones. No one is perfect.

In conjunction with this, I'll also admit that I thought the California recall would be more competitive than it has turned out to be, though I was never convinced that it would actually succeed. This result provides even further confirmation to me of the polarizing trends we've seen.

[Gass3268]

Lol

https://twitter.com/RobertCahaly/status/1437537734525132800?s=20

[Alben Barkley]

It seems like many on here are confident that this means Democrats will retain the House next year. It would not be wise to make that assumption.

Yeah, that's a really bad assumption on their part. My take from this is that Democrats can simultaneously lose the House while also defeating a number of Biden-district Republicans in the process.

It goes beyond redistricting to. This has restored my confidence that the Democrats aren't going to face a 30-40 seat loss. They have such a small majority however that keeping the house is a likely situation.

The thing is 2010 was so bad for them that the GOP can't go any more nuts without cOuRt InTeRvEnTiOn.

There was literally never any possibility of this.  The GOP won the majority of close congressional races in 2020 and a lot of them were within like a point or two.  A bunch in California.  Those incumbents are all in danger without Trump on the ballot.  And even though the GOP controls redistricting in more places, (a) they control less than they did last time the maps were drawn, (b) population has shifted to blue counties, (c) and I'm not convinced that blue states with commissions wont gerrymander on the margins anyways.  The only people here who ever predicted a big GOP rout in 2022 were also the ones who predicted this recall would be close.  

A lot of people here said if Newsom seriously underperformed then it would indicate Dems are going to have trouble in 2022.  But now apparently the reverse logic does not apply.  This is certainly indicative of the fact that Dems are retaining educated suburban voters and that's not great for the GOP in an off year election.  

And hot take: the SCOTUS's/Texas's despicable actions on abortion recently probably gave Newsom a few point boost here.

I don't even think that's a hot take, or at least it shouldn't be. Texas and SCOTUS did a great job reminding everyone why they hated Republicans. (Also ACB's alternate reality comments recently with McConnell in Louisville.) The last news cycle being about that instead of some culture war outrage about CRT or trans athletes or whatever was certainly a boost for Dems, no doubt.

[Lief 🗽]

Current results on Question 2 when including blank votes:

BLANK 47%
Elder 23%
Paffrath 6%
Faulconer 5%
etc.

[John Dule]

As usual, my state only votes for Democrats because the Republicans are incapable of offering a viable alternative.

[Non Swing Voter]

EVERY TIME

If Dems underperformed expectations: it means A LOT.

It Dems over performed expectations: it means nothing or alternatively it means that Republicans are even more favored to pick up seats because Dems can't sneak in a surprise win in 2022, now GOP is on notice.

- Atlas Dems in disarray poster posting from doomsday bunker.

[Continential]

Current results on Question 2 when including blank votes:

BLANK 47%
Elder 23%
Paffrath 6%
Faulconer 5%
etc.

I wonder how many counties did blank win.

[kwabbit]

My final prediction is now No +19%, which is up from no +14% last week. Would this be a reasonable +19% map or should I tweak it a little bit. I'm not sure how OC, Riverside and Fresno will exactly vote for, so I guess they will vote yes by under a 2-3% margin.

Man, My prediction was quite off on the margin and in some counties as well. Oh well.

No +19% seems pretty good. There is no ED vote in yet, I think your SoCal predictions will be on point.

OC mathematically does not have the votes out to flip to Yes even if the remainder is 100% for recall. Given Riverside margin atm I don't think it flips either.

Are you sure about that, NYT has OC at 58% No with 64% of the vote in. That is, 37% No, 27% Yes of the eventual vote far. According to that, Yes would need about 64% of the eventual vote for 50/50. Now that I did the math, I think OC will be +2 No, but it's not mathematically impossible.

[Non Swing Voter]

These margins are gonna tighten as non early ballots are counted right?   Still looks atrocious for the GOP but what is it looking like?  22 point win for Newsom?

[emailking]

Statistically there have to be some No/Elder voters, I wonder who they are.

Do you have to vote on the first question to vote on the 2nd though?

Anyway, if there are some, they're probably Republican leaning indies who are against the recall on principle.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Current results on Question 2 when including blank votes:

BLANK 47%
Elder 23%
Paffrath 6%
Faulconer 5%
etc.

It's quite something to be trailing more than 20 points behind "I refuse to dignify this election with a response"

[Matty]

The elephant in the room in 2022 is the sheer tiny amount of seats the gop has to flip.

What is it? 6 or 7?

That is hardly a hard lift.

AT BEST, the results so far in 2021 show that 2022 is going to be pretty close to 2020, where the gop gained 12 seats and came very close to winning some more.

That is why the safe bet is that the gop takes the house.

[Non Swing Voter]

^ LOL

[soundchaser]

The elephant in the room in 2022 is the sheer tiny amount of seats the gop has to flip.

What is it? 6 or 7?

That is hardly a hard lift.

AT BEST, the results so far in 2021 show that 2022 is going to be pretty close to 2020, where the gop gained 12 seats and came very close to winning some more.

That is why the safe bet is that the gop takes the house.

They won most of those seats by incredibly narrow margins in increasingly Dem-friendly counties. Add in the wild card that is redistricting in New York, California, etc. and I would not be using the phrase “safe bet.”

[Ferguson97]

Statistically there have to be some No/Elder voters, I wonder who they are.

Do you have to vote on the first question to vote on the 2nd though?

AFAIK, no

[Gass3268]

Majority of Faulconer voters voted No on Question 1.

https://twitter.com/williamjordann/status/1437992528570105856?s=20

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

The elephant in the room in 2022 is the sheer tiny amount of seats the gop has to flip.

What is it? 6 or 7?

That is hardly a hard lift.

AT BEST, the results so far in 2021 show that 2022 is going to be pretty close to 2020, where the gop gained 12 seats and came very close to winning some more.

That is why the safe bet is that the gop takes the house.

Bro, I can picture you typing this with a bottle of vodka, bags under your eyes in disbelief and crying that the recall vote failed