CA GOV 2021 - 2022 megathread

[kwabbit]

I really hope the GOP can coalesce around Faulconer if the recall vote is yes. Not that he would be likely to win but Newsom could get a scare in this recall. I don’t think it’s gonna be a 60/40 no blowout. I’m expecting a 10ish no victory tbh.

[kwabbit]

With Newsom striking a deal to reopen schools, much of the impetus for recalling him has disappeared, and any chance for the recall to be successful likely has as well.

That being said, the recall movement should still be seen as a success, no matter the final outcome. It did pressure Newsom to respond to his constituents' concerns over school closings. And even if he defeats the recall, his political career will have been damaged enough to probably prevent him from launching a successful presidential campaign.

[kwabbit]

Newsom won Orange County by 3,000 votes in 2018 while winning 62–38 statewide. I don't see any reason we can't assume a uniform swing here, and Yes winning by two points in Orange County would suggest something like a 60–40 No result statewide.

It’ll be close to a uniform swing I imagine, but Dem areas will probably swing more since a small portion of Dems support the recall. Like I bet LA county will have a stronger than uniform swing, maybe the non SF bay area as well.

[kwabbit]

I'm interested to see how disproportionately Republican election day/in person voting is. I'd imagine the gap might be even more wide than the 2020 election, given the stop the steal/ VDM is illegitimate rhetoric obviously peaked after Trump's defeat. I'm thinking No +16 at this point, I think polls will again underestimate Republican performance as they become even more disconnected from traditional media sources.

Even though the recall is doomed to fail and evolved into a Larry Elder lead circus, at least it gave us election junkies something to focus on in 2021 lol.

[kwabbit]

I'm interested to see how disproportionately Republican election day/in person voting is. I'd imagine the gap might be even more wide than the 2020 election, given the stop the steal/ VDM is illegitimate rhetoric obviously peaked after Trump's defeat. I'm thinking No +16 at this point, I think polls will again underestimate Republican performance as they become even more disconnected from traditional media sources.

Except there's no history of polls underestimating Republicans in California. Quite the opposite actually.

That is true, I’m not expecting a big miss, just about a 1.5 or so in the Yes direction. I think it’s notable that 2020 was the first election where Democrats weren’t underestimated in California, most likely because of changing coalitions. As the GOP loses its traditional suburban educated White base, it will become less overestimated and as the Dems pick up those voters and shed Hispanic voters they will less underestimated. Trends from 2020 seem to have carried over into the recall, with Hispanic voters being more likely to support it (of course with a lot of variation across polling but on average) than their 2020 vote would imply. I think this creates the potential for Yes to be slightly underestimated by polling.

Of course I could be full of crap and No wins by 25 which is also a definite possibility. Just making the case in the opposite direction.

[kwabbit]

My final prediction is now No +19%, which is up from no +14% last week. Would this be a reasonable +19% map or should I tweak it a little bit. I'm not sure how OC, Riverside and Fresno will exactly vote for, so I guess they will vote yes by under a 2-3% margin.

Man, My prediction was quite off on the margin and in some counties as well. Oh well.

No +19% seems pretty good. There is no ED vote in yet, I think your SoCal predictions will be on point.

[kwabbit]

My final prediction is now No +19%, which is up from no +14% last week. Would this be a reasonable +19% map or should I tweak it a little bit. I'm not sure how OC, Riverside and Fresno will exactly vote for, so I guess they will vote yes by under a 2-3% margin.

Man, My prediction was quite off on the margin and in some counties as well. Oh well.

No +19% seems pretty good. There is no ED vote in yet, I think your SoCal predictions will be on point.

OC mathematically does not have the votes out to flip to Yes even if the remainder is 100% for recall. Given Riverside margin atm I don't think it flips either.

Are you sure about that, NYT has OC at 58% No with 64% of the vote in. That is, 37% No, 27% Yes of the eventual vote far. According to that, Yes would need about 64% of the eventual vote for 50/50. Now that I did the math, I think OC will be +2 No, but it's not mathematically impossible.

[kwabbit]

My final prediction is now No +19%, which is up from no +14% last week. Would this be a reasonable +19% map or should I tweak it a little bit. I'm not sure how OC, Riverside and Fresno will exactly vote for, so I guess they will vote yes by under a 2-3% margin.

Man, My prediction was quite off on the margin and in some counties as well. Oh well.

No +19% seems pretty good. There is no ED vote in yet, I think your SoCal predictions will be on point.

OC mathematically does not have the votes out to flip to Yes even if the remainder is 100% for recall. Given Riverside margin atm I don't think it flips either.

Are you sure about that, NYT has OC at 58% No with 64% of the vote in. That is, 37% No, 27% Yes of the eventual vote far. According to that, Yes would need about 64% of the eventual vote for 50/50. Now that I did the math, I think OC will be +2 No, but it's not mathematically impossible.

Saw somewhere that the total in-person vote in OC was 103K. Which would mean NYT is overestimating the remainder.


Actually, CA SoS is showing OC as all in with 58% no, so...lol

I don't think OC is 100% in, not at all. The vote in OC is 800k, in 2020 it was 1.5 million. This election will obviously be lower turnout, but not by that much in an educated county like OC. If you look at the counties where NYT has the % in higher, the vote totals are a lot closer to the 2020 election level. NorCal returns imply about 75-80% of 2020 turnout. The SoS system may be showing that, but that might be signifying that it's gotten votes from all precincts, not that all precincts have reported all of their votes.

As an addendum more results came in, so now it's 56/44 so obviously not all of the votes were in when it said 100% lol.

[kwabbit]

Does anyone know when the rest of the returns will come in? CA is never fast, but I think they could processed the ballots faster given that there's literally only two questions.

[kwabbit]

Are there gonna be daily dumps like after the 2020 election? There's still a lot of votes to be counted.