538 model & poll tracker thread

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

I made the following post in the weird 538 maps thread about just how ridiculous Trump's paths to victory are in the model, the number of state upsets he needs to win, and just how little room there is for error:

Here's a compilation of every Trump victory map right now:

Red = Biden in all scenarios
Blue = Trump in all scenarios
Gray = States that differ between scenarios

Even in the wildest of outliers, VA and OR are now gone. That sounds like it should be obvious, but there are still outliers on Biden's end that have MS, TN, KS, IN, and LA going to Biden. Yes, the model is still spitting out results with those states going to Biden, but none at all with VA going to Trump. That's remarkable.

The other notable thing about this is that among the Trump states in EVERY Trump victory, including the ridiculous outliers, we have:

Florida (Biden leads by 4.4%)
North Carolina (Biden leads by 2.7%)
Ohio (Biden leads by 0.9%)
Iowa (Biden leads by 1.1%)
Georgia (Biden leads by 1.4%)

Trump victory maps are as much outliers as maps where Biden wins 430+ EVs. That's where the race is, according to 538.

[Sorenroy]

Since the over/under 413 thread got deleted, I'll post what I said there here. When you go to 538's presidential forecast and go all the way down to the bottom of the page, there is a download link labeled "Model Outputs." One of the files you can get in that link is the percentage chance Biden or Trump win X number of Electoral Votes. Currently, the over/under is between 348 and 349 Biden, but it's interesting to see what the percentage chances are at some other values.

There is an 84.8% chance that Biden wins the Electoral College.

There is a 73.3% chance that Biden wins 300 or more Electoral Votes.

There is a 72.0% chance that Biden gets more Electoral Votes than Trump did in 2016 (304).

There is a 39.2% chance that Biden gets more Electoral Votes than Obama did in 2008 (365).

There is a 24.6% chance that Biden wins 400 or more Electoral Votes.

There is a 14.7% chance that Trump wins the Electoral College.

There is an 8.2% chance that Trump wins 300 or more Electoral Votes.

There is a 7.3% chance that Trump gets more Electoral Votes than he did in 2016 (304).

There is a 6.8% chance that Biden keeps Trump to double digits by winning at least 439 Electoral Votes.

There is a 0.6% chance that Biden wins 500 or more Electoral Votes.

There is a 0.4% chance that Trump gets more Electoral Votes than Obama did in 2008 (365).

There is a 0.1% chance that Trump wins 400 or more Electoral Votes.

Everything else has a less than 0.1% chance (after rounding) of occurring.

[emailking]

86-14 now.

[Gass3268]

86-14 now.

Wisconsin has replaced Pennsylvania as the tipping point state.

[Dr. Arch]

86-14 now.

Wisconsin has replaced Pennsylvania as the tipping point state.

Yes, in the sense that PA zoomed left enough that it pushed Wisconsin down, even though Wisconsin has been steady. NE-02 is about to cross into likely territory as well.

[Gass3268]

86-14 now.

Wisconsin has replaced Pennsylvania as the tipping point state.

Yes, in the sense that PA zoomed left enough that it pushed Wisconsin down, even though Wisconsin has been steady. NE-02 is about to cross into likely territory as well.

I selfishly want Wisconsin to be the projected tipping point state. I am planning on live mapping (two party vote and swing) the state on election night.

[Dr. Arch]

86-14 now.

Wisconsin has replaced Pennsylvania as the tipping point state.

Yes, in the sense that PA zoomed left enough that it pushed Wisconsin down, even though Wisconsin has been steady. NE-02 is about to cross into likely territory as well.

I selfishly want Wisconsin to be the projected tipping point state. I am planning on live mapping (two party vote and swing) the state on election night.

You might just get your wish the way that polling is looking like in PA.

[Figueira]

WI now shows up as the tipping point state on the snake chart, with PA being more Democratic (although the margins are identical).

[emailking]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1315293995128573952

[Crumpets]

For anybody who wants a map, here's 538's current forecast using their color scheme from 2012:

Update of the above map:



Changes since September 16:

MO 90+% Trump -> 80-90% Trump
AK 80-90% Trump -> 70-80% Trump
GA 60-70% Trump -> 50-60% Trump
IA 60-70% Trump -> 50-60% Trump
OH 50-60% Trump -> 50-60% Biden
FL 60-70% Biden -> 70-80% Biden
PA 70-80% Biden -> 80-90% Biden
NH 70-80% Biden -> 80-90% Biden
MN 80-90% Biden -> 90+% Biden
MI 80-90% Biden -> 90+% Biden
CO 80-90% Biden -> 90+% Biden

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

86-14 now.

Wisconsin has replaced Pennsylvania as the tipping point state.

Yes, in the sense that PA zoomed left enough that it pushed Wisconsin down, even though Wisconsin has been steady. NE-02 is about to cross into likely territory as well.

I selfishly want Wisconsin to be the projected tipping point state. I am planning on live mapping (two party vote and swing) the state on election night.

You might just get your wish the way that polling is looking like in PA.

I think it needs to be pointed out that the states are not ordered by probability, they're ordered by expected margin of victory. It's a subtle point, but important

[emailking]

Are the orders different?

[Dr. Arch]

86-14 now.

Wisconsin has replaced Pennsylvania as the tipping point state.

Yes, in the sense that PA zoomed left enough that it pushed Wisconsin down, even though Wisconsin has been steady. NE-02 is about to cross into likely territory as well.

I selfishly want Wisconsin to be the projected tipping point state. I am planning on live mapping (two party vote and swing) the state on election night.

You might just get your wish the way that polling is looking like in PA.

I think it needs to be pointed out that the states are not ordered by probability, they're ordered by expected margin of victory. It's a subtle point, but important

Yes, which is precisely my point in terms of the model and expectations.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Current 538 polling averages, Atlas style!

Biden 334 Trump 164 Tossup 40

T = <1% lead
30 = 1-3%
40 = 3-5%
50 = 5-7%
60 = 7-9%
70 = 9-11%
80 = 11-13%
90 = >13% (or not a realistic battleground)

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

The model now shows Trump as more likely to win LESS than 120 electoral votes than he is to actually win the election.  (Almost all the rating sites have Trump’s Safe or Likely states at 125 EVs, so this involves winning at leas one or two of SC, MT, AK, MS, KS, etc.)

[Gustaf]

Trump is now down to 87-13.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Trump is only 13% to win the election, but he’s still 28% to “win at least one state that Clinton won in 2016”. 

I’m guessing this state is usually Nevada, but this suggests to me that their cross-state correlation is still too low.

[Crumpets]

Trump is only 13% to win the election, but he’s still 28% to “win at least one state that Clinton won in 2016”. 

I’m guessing this state is usually Nevada, but this suggests to me that their cross-state correlation is still too low.

Just looking at the Biden win maps, it looks like they see NH, NV, and ME as the most likely possibilities, but that's just of the maps they're displaying now.

[redjohn]

Biden takes the lead in the GA forecast for the first time this cycle.

[Bootes Void]

Florida is 70/30 Biden

"Oh great it's the infamous 70/30 ratio"

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1316443893332955137

[Brittain33]

Right now Biden and Cornyn have equal odds of winning - 87%.

[emailking]

Georgia flipped back.

[Gass3268]

Georgia flipped back.

It's funny, GA flipped Dem but Biden's % dropped to 86%, but then GA flipped back to Trump and Biden's % went back up to 87%.

[emailking]

I think the NBC poll pushed it back to 87.