538 model & poll tracker thread (user search)
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  538 model & poll tracker thread (search mode)
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Author Topic: 538 model & poll tracker thread  (Read 57620 times)
American2020
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« on: July 28, 2020, 07:50:22 AM »












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American2020
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« Reply #1 on: August 13, 2020, 11:26:44 AM »
North Carolina 08/13/2020

50% Trump
50% Biden

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/north-carolina/
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American2020
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« Reply #2 on: August 26, 2020, 09:26:24 AM »
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American2020
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« Reply #3 on: September 06, 2020, 02:00:35 PM »
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American2020
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« Reply #4 on: September 09, 2020, 09:44:47 AM »
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American2020
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« Reply #5 on: September 10, 2020, 02:41:35 PM »
« Edited: September 10, 2020, 04:05:49 PM by American2020 »
Biden: 75%
Trump: 25%
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American2020
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« Reply #6 on: September 13, 2020, 05:50:40 PM »
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American2020
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« Reply #7 on: September 15, 2020, 12:57:08 PM »
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American2020
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« Reply #8 on: September 18, 2020, 08:47:31 AM »
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American2020
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« Reply #9 on: September 18, 2020, 09:28:42 AM »
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American2020
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« Reply #10 on: September 20, 2020, 08:33:37 AM »
Weird and not-so-weird possibilities
The chances that these situations will crop up

Trump wins the popular vote Regardless of whether he wins the Electoral College
12 in 100

Biden wins the popular vote Regardless of whether he wins the Electoral College
88 in 100

Trump wins more than 50% of the popular vote Regardless of whether he wins the Electoral College
9 in 100

Biden wins more than 50% of the popular vote Regardless of whether he wins the Electoral College
83 in 100

Trump wins in a landslide Defined as winning the popular vote by a double-digit margin
<1 in 100

Biden wins in a landslide Defined as winning the popular vote by a double-digit margin
30 in 100

Trump wins the popular vote but loses the Electoral College   <1 in 100 Biden wins the popular vote but loses the Electoral College   
10 in 100

No one wins the Electoral College No candidate gets 270 electoral votes and Congress decides the election
<1 in 100

Trump wins at least one state that Clinton won in 2016   
37 in 100

Biden wins at least one state that Trump won in 2016   
92 in 100

The map stays exactly the same as it was in 2016 Each candidate wins exactly the same states that his party won in 2016
<1 in 100

The election hinges on a recount Candidates are within half a percentage point in one or more decisive states
5 in 100
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American2020
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« Reply #11 on: September 24, 2020, 01:28:16 PM »
It's a toss-up in Ohio


Probability
Trump: 52%
Biden: 48%

Projected vote share for Nov. 3
Trump: 49.7%
Biden: 49.3%

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/ohio/
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American2020
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« Reply #12 on: September 25, 2020, 09:20:25 AM »
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American2020
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« Reply #13 on: October 01, 2020, 09:38:13 AM »
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American2020
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« Reply #14 on: October 06, 2020, 07:34:48 AM »


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American2020
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« Reply #15 on: October 09, 2020, 10:17:25 AM »
It's tossup in Georgia now.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/georgia/
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American2020
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« Reply #16 on: October 14, 2020, 01:46:46 PM »
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American2020
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« Reply #17 on: October 18, 2020, 07:51:46 AM »
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American2020
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« Reply #18 on: October 26, 2020, 01:52:57 PM »
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American2020
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« Reply #19 on: October 26, 2020, 01:55:07 PM »
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American2020
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« Reply #20 on: October 26, 2020, 04:21:48 PM »
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American2020
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« Reply #21 on: October 27, 2020, 04:53:26 PM »
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