538 model & poll tracker thread

[Antonio the Sixth]

When will the "Economics & incumbency" caveat start to fade? Was it expecting a much better jobs report that wouldn't be overshadowed by the President being hospitalized?

It's the only metric preventing Georgia from being 50/50 on the model

It's already fading pretty fast. It's only weighted around 10% of the forecast in most well-polled states, compared to around 20% a few weeks ago.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

When will the "Economics & incumbency" caveat start to fade? Was it expecting a much better jobs report that wouldn't be overshadowed by the President being hospitalized?

It's the only metric preventing Georgia from being 50/50 on the model

It's already fading pretty fast. It's only weighted around 10% of the forecast in most well-polled states, compared to around 20% a few weeks ago.

Feels like it's been around 13% in the closer states for over a week

[Antonio the Sixth]

When will the "Economics & incumbency" caveat start to fade? Was it expecting a much better jobs report that wouldn't be overshadowed by the President being hospitalized?

It's the only metric preventing Georgia from being 50/50 on the model

It's already fading pretty fast. It's only weighted around 10% of the forecast in most well-polled states, compared to around 20% a few weeks ago.

Feels like it's been around 13% in the closer states for over a week

I seem to remember it was over 15% until a few days ago, and now it's below in most swing states. Also note there haven't been many state polls in the past couple days (we got a lot of national polls but those don't really affect the calculation).

Also, the jobs report did significantly alter the fundamentals forecast in Biden's direction. Prior to it, it had him down in PA by like 7 points, now just 2 points.

[Gustaf]

Nate made a table somewhere with the exact percentage for the fundamentals. It's falling towards 0, which it will be on election day.

It doesn't fall linearly, it falls faster and faster as you approach election day.

[Gustaf]

Ah, I found it: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-fivethirtyeights-2020-presidential-forecast-works-and-whats-different-because-of-covid-19/

It was 16% 50 days out, will be 11% 25 days out, 6% 10 days out and 3% 5 days out.

[Sorenroy]

When will the "Economics & incumbency" caveat start to fade? Was it expecting a much better jobs report that wouldn't be overshadowed by the President being hospitalized?

It's the only metric preventing Georgia from being 50/50 on the model

It's already fading pretty fast. It's only weighted around 10% of the forecast in most well-polled states, compared to around 20% a few weeks ago.

Feels like it's been around 13% in the closer states for over a week

I seem to remember it was over 15% until a few days ago, and now it's below in most swing states. Also note there haven't been many state polls in the past couple days (we got a lot of national polls but those don't really affect the calculation).

Also, the jobs report did significantly alter the fundamentals forecast in Biden's direction. Prior to it, it had him down in PA by like 7 points, now just 2 points.

Just to be clear, the economics and incumbency metric is the same across every state, the thing that changed based on state polls is the demographics weighting. Every state is currently at 12% economics and incumbency, but the demographics ranges from 19% of the "Today's Vote Share" model in large, well polled states like Pennsylvania to 100% in small, unpolled regions like Nebraska's third congressional district. You could probably assume that the demographics percentage will go down as we get closer to the election and there are more and more state polls, but it's not a certainty (unlike the economics factor).

[Horus]

With the addition of today's USC tracker, Trump has reached a new low. He now has just an 18/100 chance of winning.

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1313452583466528768

[kireev]

Biden is at 51.4% in National polls as of now https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/national/

That's ties his all-time high on August 23-24 right after the Democratic Convention.

[ShamDam]

Biden has crept up to 83 in 100 after today's deluge of chad polls: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

[Splash]

And Ohio flipped back to Biden, lol.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

I just noticed "Today's Vote Share" for Georgia is tied.

Literally the only thing preventing the forecast narrowing from Trump 55-45 is the 'Economics & Incumbency' metric (AKA to some GA avatars here, the 'Voter Suppression' metric)

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Biden up to a 9% lead in the national polling average at this moment, 51.4%-42.4%

[The Mikado]

There's discussion on the Congressional boards about the new House model, but I wanted to take a moment to look at this, which Nathaniel Rakich highlighted:



63% Chance Dem Trifecta
32% Chance Divided Government
5% Chance GOP Trifecta

Does make some intuitive sense to me, though I'd put GOP Trifecta even lower. I also think that, while it's certainly not LIKELY, Trump winning but D House and Senate seems more likely to me than a 2% chance.

[GeneralMacArthur]

Divided government is such a f---ing nightmare.  After all this, Mitch McConnell is just gonna sit there and deep-freeze the entire government AGAIN and focus solely on getting the next Trump elected.

And the American people, who are dumber than a sack of rocks, will blame Biden for the lack of progress.  And that will include many Red/Green avatars on this forum.  Mark my words.

Those Georgia elections are going to be a major national event if Dems don't take 50 seats.  Both Ossoff and Warnock are probably headed for runoffs.  Georgia will become hotter than the sun if the Dems need to win one (or both) of those races to secure a Senate majority.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Biden's up to 84 now.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Trump down to a 16% chance in the forecast, half of his peak of 32% on August 31, immediately after the Republican convention.

[ShamDam]

Trump down to a 16% chance in the forecast, half of his peak of 32% on August 31, immediately after the Republican convention.

Let's halve it again!

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

Popular vote forecast in Georgia is Trump 49.9 - 49.3%

First time since they started calculating in June 1 that he's fallen below 50%.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Fivey Fox has snapped!   Check this tweet (not embedding for a reason): https://twitter.com/ne0liberal/status/1313854034986643457

[emailking]

Well he's right.

[SaxonKing]

Trump is down to a 15% chance of winning.
Biden has a 35% chance of winning in a landslide.
Georgia is on the cusp of flipping.
I am beginning to wonder where the model can bottom out.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Trump is down to a 15% chance of winning.
Biden has a 35% chance of winning in a landslide.
Georgia is on the cusp of flipping.
I am beginning to wonder where the model can bottom out.

At this point I would put Biden as an odds-on favorite to outperform Obama 2008 both in the popular vote margin and the EV count. I doubt it will be long before 538 flips GA and IA.

[emailking]

Trump is down to a 15% chance of winning.
Biden has a 35% chance of winning in a landslide.
Georgia is on the cusp of flipping.
I am beginning to wonder where the model can bottom out.

Based on the "polls now" tidbits Nate has given us before, the model probably thinks Trump's chances are about 5% if the election were tomorrow. So unless he can improve in the polls, that's probably where we'll end up.

[The Mikado]

Today or tomorrow, Biden will probably cross from "Favored" to "Clearly Favored"